Career batting average (in 758 PA): .254.
Career slugging percentage: .399.
Age: 27.
Time, needless to say, is running out. Langerhans has his strengths, of course. He’s got a very good walk rate and he’s a good defensive player. So, that’s two. If he could do anything else, he would be a valuable player, but as of now, it’s not looking too good.
Ryan’s rookie year line of .267/.348/.426 wasn’t great, but was just about league average and something to build on. He wasn’t able to do that, however, and eventually Matt Diaz took over a lot of his playing time, though less than you’d think; Langerhans still started 23 games from August 1 on. As has been noted, they were platooned much of the year, though Langerhans hit .308 (albeit with no power, but with a .400 OBP) against lefties… Langerhans also had an enormous home/road split. At home, he was pretty great, .296/.408/.459, but on the road he was a pitcher-quality .186/.287/.295. I doubt this means anything.
Career 1 of 5 as a basestealer, the one success coming last year. He’d actually be a good leadoff hitter if he could hit .270 or so.
Wasn’t he really good in the minors and was even the organizations offensive player of the year once?
I think he’ll see the majority of the time in LF, esp. if his wrist injuries are better
Smitty–I may be mistaken but I think that he won the organization’s award for the best player in rookie ball….
So let me get this straight, I can no longer watch the Braves play very often on TBS and now I can’t even pay to watch them on MLB Extra Innings as I cant get DirectTV at my current place. Nice…
I think Langerhans got some type of award, maybe most improved, the year he broke out at AAA with 20HR.
I guess the profile is coming, but I’d like to know if anyone has a statistical measure that shows how bad Diaz’s defense is in left field. I assume it has to be awful, because the guy is a hitter. His numbers in the minors show more power than I ever thought he had. If you look at how he hit last year and his minor league totals, its not unreasonable to think he’s capable of hitting .320 with 20+ HR over a full season.
I’d even like to see him hit leadoff if KJ cannot. His OBP with bases empty was over .400 last year. When hitting 8th (70 PA), his obp was an astounding .479, with a pitcher behind him. All of these things make me think Langerhans should be a late inning defensive sub and not the starting LF.
Diaz’s writeup is written and will appear tomorrow. His range factors last season are excellent, and it seems unlikely that it’s all due to Chuck James, but he didn’t look good.
This must be based completely on range factor or fielding percentage or something.
Diaz’s FRAR – 16, FRAA – 11
I guess if even you do it right ugly most of the time, what matters is you do it right.
Not that I would purchase MLB Extra Innings (I can’t afford it), but this decision to sell the rights to DirecTV is making a TON of people angry. How stupid can MLB be? “Well hey, I know we can get our product out almost the entire country, but I think it’s best if we cut it to now less than a quarter of the population. Yeah it severely limits exposure to our product and will probably result in reduced attendance because of discontent, but hey, we make more money!”
Sickels has posted the results of the community projection for Scott Thorman: he solicited his readers to give what they thought would be a fair prediction of Thorman’s 2007 numbers, and collated the answers into the following result. Judging by the numbers, they seem to expect a slight platoon, but that he will get most of the playing time.
121 games, 392 at-bats, 104 hits, .265 average, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 35 walks, 80 strikeouts, 2 steals.
(That translates to roughly .265/.326/.446.)
Thoughts?
I’d be happy with that if Craig Wilson puts up more of the same when he starts.
Matt Diaz is the poster child for trusting your eyes over LF fielding stats. The man can’t judge a fly ball. Go to a game & watch anything that’s hit his way. Just cringeworthy.
That said, he appears to be a better option than Langer overall. I like Langer a lot. I love his hustle and I love his defense, but (as someone mentioned) he might be best used ultimately as a spare part, a 4th OF. This would appear to be his make-or-break season, for his Braves tenure and for his career.
The good news for Langer: If Ricky Ledee can have a 10-year MLB career, so can he.
I think they’re both useful players, and the platoon worked for me last year. Do it again, see if either makes considerable strides (Diaz with his defense, Langerhans with his BA), and adjust playing time accordingly. There’s always Craig Wilson as a fallback, and even if they don’t start, Langerhans is hella-useful as a defensive replacement or PR, and Diaz is a useful bat off the bench. I really don’t understand why people think LF is a weakness for the Braves.
I like Langy too but, especially this year, they can’t really afford to carry a weak bat in left field. He has value, especially defensively, and I like his ability to get walks, but unless his injuries were a bigger factor than we thought, he has fourth outfielder written all over him.
Off – Topic:
Can anyone recommend a place to stay in Destin FL. I’m looking for a reasonable 2B or 3B condo, would like to stay for under $13-1400 for a week. Does anyone usually travel to Destin?
I grew up playing first base all my life, and when I went to college at a Division III school, was moved to OF. It was well into my junior year before I even knew what I was doing, and then by the time I got comfortable, it was time to graduate. There were four outfielders in our rotation, so I wasn’t in there everyday, but I also never made an error the entire four years.
I guess my point is meant to agree with the population thus far: doesn’t matter how ugly it looks, but if Diaz is the hitter between him and Langy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in there most of the time, making Ryan his defensive sub and 4th OF. Wilson and/or Thorman can be the emergency guys, who would presumably only play LF, moving Langy to sub for Andruw or Francoeur, if necessary.
I discuss Diaz’s defense in the post I had planned for tomorrow. I can call it up now if you want, though that means no new post until Friday.
As I’m in a study break, let me tell a story I meant to tell in the last thread:
I was bored one night and went with some friends to an Auburn Univ. baseball game in 2002. I sat in the first row right behind the Auburn on-deck circle when a pitching change was made and everyone’s favorite crappy middle infielder, Jon Schuerholz, came up. With it being close to opening day, I harassed him.
“Hey Jon, tell your dad that we need to do this.. or that..” and I was spouting off random trade ideas that in my mind would work very well.
Little Jon turned around, talked to me a bit, and then motioned for me to turn around. I did so. Right behind me was John Schuerholz himself with his wife. Schuerholz looked at me, smiled, and asked “Well, how’d you like the Blanco trade?” I told him I liked it and I thought Blanco was better than Paul Bako. Then JS tells me why he made the trade, told me he didn’t think Jose Cabrera (who we also traded to the Brewers in the deal) would pan out at all.
JS knows his stuff.
That’s OK, Mac, Langerhans isn’t THAT boring to discuss.
So this DirectTV thing means I wont be able to pay for the subscription that lets me watch games on MLB.com?
Wryn, great story. Here’s some more news: the White Sox just signed Darin Erstad to a 1-year contract. This sounds like another great move from the guy who traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, attempted to trade Brian Anderson for Andruw Jones, and now will be taking at-bats from both Podsednik and Anderson to give them to Darin Erstad, who’s about as much of an offensive weapon as Manute Bol.
Erstad had all of 5 RBI’s last year. I still despise him for half-killing Estrada.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/E/Darin-Erstad.shtml
Wryn,
Good stuff.
Nice to hear JS & Jr. were so gracious.
But Wryn, according to Joe Simpson, Harold Reynolds, and everyone else in the baseball media who has no spine, you make the decision to run over somebody at the plate as you’re crossing third base.
I am terrified that Wilson will be taking Diaz’s at-bats this year.
I just spoke with the Director of Scouting for the Arizona Diamondbacks here at work today, unfortunately nothing to do with baseball. The very next client I spoke with was named Kelly Johnson.
just thought it was kind of funny
Couldn’t Craig just take at-bats from Fernando Lunar instead?
I think posednik just had surgery, so that would explain Erstad’s arrival.
Speaking of collissions with Braves catchers, this photo is hard to top. It looks like Gladden scored minutes ago and that Olson offered to show him some of his break-dance moves between batters.
http://www.amherst.edu/sports/current/mantle/friends/olson.jpg
Stu, I think Don Sutton (in worship of everything California) was the one that thought that hit was clean.
I think you’re right, Wryn. My bad, Joe.
While I hope Wilson gets a lot of at bats in LF this year, I really love Ryan’s defense. I feel that when he is out there with Jeff and Andrew,that that is as good as any defensively. Three center fielders. I hope his bat can come around but he really never has hit well ( not for power anyways). If we get power from Johnson at second , maybe the need for power in the 8th hole won’t be as vital.
Bowman, on our LF position
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070123&content_id=1785009&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
Great story Wryn. Mac, save Diaz for Thursday if you don’t mind.
Rotoauthority on NL starting rotations for 07, not looking good
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/01/best_starting_r.html
Well, I thought I would have two choice in how I watch my baseball this season.(Extra innings or MLB.com thing) And if it wasn’t enough they take away TBS games and now Extra innings. Looks like im going with the MLB.com package.
Before I purchase it, can anyone explain to me how it works…Like will i get to choose the games i want to watch?
Thought I’d share this message I received:
ANNOUNCEMENT
The Braves 400 Club will host its annual winter banquet and fundraiser on Saturday February 3 at the Marriott Century Center. Reception and silent auction of Braves memorabilia begins at 5:30 with the awards dinner and program following at 7:00 PM.
This year’s theme, “Great Moments in Atlanta Braves History”, will feature video highlights and players from the past 41 glorious seasons in Atlanta. The program will include appearances by Phil Niekro, Gene Garber, Sid Bream, Alejandro Pena, former Braves manager Dave Bristol, new third base coach Brian Snitker, emcee
Pete Van Wieren and others.
The many awards and presentations include the Ivan Allen Jr. “Mr. Baseball” Award, Luke Appling Nostalgia Award, awards for outstanding performance by Braves minor leaguers, college and high school players, and the 2007 Phil Niekro College Scholarships. Braves minor league manager Paul Runge and Matt Harrison, Carl Loadenthal and Kala Ka’aihui will attend.
Admission is open to the public at a cost of $65, which includes dinner and a well-stocked goody bag. Make reservations on the club website http://www.braves400.org. Call the Braves 400 Club’s hotline, 770-416-4539, to hear a recorded message.
The Braves 400 Club, the official fan club of the Atlanta Braves, was formed in 1965, a full year before the Braves made their move from Milwaukee to Atlanta, and has been an integral part of the fan base for the Atlanta Braves ever since. The club is a non-profit organization supporting baseball at all levels – awarding baseball scholarships to metro-Atlanta colleges and recognizing metro-Atlanta high school all-stars as well as minor and major league players in
the Braves organization.
csg’s link @32 also had a short “sleeper alert” article on Kelly Johnson that was an interesting read.
This is what Bmac was talking about…I would LOVE for this to happen…
Sleeper Alert: Kelly Johnson
Right now, 25 year-old Kelly Johnson is the favorite to play second base and lead off for the Braves in 2007. What can we expect from him?
First I should note that Johnson didn’t play at all in the Majors last year (elbow surgery) and only played outfield in ’05. So he probably won’t qualify at 2B in your league until a week or two into the season.
Even though he missed ’05, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system loves Johnson. It forecasts a .291/.374/.495 line from him in ’07. If he hit like that, he’d be a major sleeper. He’d fly past my initial 450 AB projection and maybe even reach 600. In that case he could indeed realize Bobby Cox’s prediction of 20 HR.
Unfortunately we don’t have a ZiPS projection for Johnson for ’07. Before the ’06 season, they called for .262/.347/.442.
As a leadoff man with at least a .350 OBP, Johnson could be a big-time sleeper for 100 runs and 20 longballs. You might want to stash him on reserve or in the OF until he qualifies at second. I haven’t seen the consistent 80%+ contact rate you’d expect from a .290 hitter, so look for an AVG in the .270s right now. He also won’t run much, so you’re looking at a two-category contributor. I am going to adjust my own forecast for next Sunday’s update now that he’s the favorite to bat leadoff.
Here is some totally unscientific analysis. I really, really like Langerhans. Maybe this is all left over from watching him sit in purgatory while Jordan and Mondesi took his at bats. His defense is outstanding and you can never question his effort. That said, we need a hitter in LF since it looks like we’re going to be all fielding in RF for the forseeable future. I hope that Langerhans can be that guy but we can’t afford to give up anymore ML playing time to develop a player when we’ve already got projects at RF, 2B, and 1B.
Question of the day: How bad would Frankor have to play to be benched or shuffled off to Richmond?
Only way Frenchy is getting sent down to Richmond is for maybe a rehab start.
why would you want to send him down?
Anyone one else disgusted to see the Red Sox signed Donnelly for Tanyon Sturtze type money. I know they traded for him and that Sturtze is mostly incentive, but Donnelly isnt coming off of surgery and has been known to get in a grove and be near unhittable. who knows, maybe they think sturtze will start eventually.
That’s what i’m trying to figure out. So he didn’t have the best year last year. We would’ve sucked even more last year with out him. I like him alot. We are having trouble trying to find an everyday LF…and some of you think we need a new RF…complete rubbish in my opinion. It was his first year, he is only 23. He’ll improve. 30 HR and 100 RBIs..i’ll take it anyday.
So the Francouer that I saw in 2005 was totally illusory? …It’s all starting to come together.
I just wish our lineup would let us bat Frenchy 8th. He’s Butch Hobson the Outfielder.
That projection for our rotation is ridiculous. Tommy John surgery doesn’t take a soft-tossing lefty to anything other than durability issues and moderate control problem. It’s not like his command is going to be so bad that he’s going to be walking runs in and leaving fat and sassy fastballs over the dish all day to the point where he’s putting up the 5.26 ERA they’re throwing out there.
James has nowhere to go but down? Where’s the logic in that? His K/9 looks good (6), which will make his K/BB rate look even better when he inevitably improves his control. He’s not a 3.5BB/9 guy. And if he improves his homer rate AT ALL, he’s due for an improvement, not an almost run and a half ERA jump. I don’t see it.
Davies and his 5.33 ERA that they’re projecting? Maybe. I’ll give them that. But if it’s that bad, there are other options that will be able to do better.
I’d also agree about Hudson and Smoltz. I think those may be right in line. But with Hampton and James, I think they’re off way off. We’ll see in September, I guess…
Rob, I agree w/ you.
I would predict:
Smoltz 3.41
Hudson 3.95
Hampton 4.00-4.20
James 4.10-4.25
Davies 4.80-5.20
Yeah, he said he would put James around 4.20-4.40 which may be fair. I don’t know about Hampton being around 4 though. If he’s 4.40, I’m happy. Davies? As long as he pitches more innings than he gives up runs, I think I won’t be surprised. 🙂
Rob,
fat and sassy fastballs
I about died laughing in my office….that’s a great line.
To the Francouer haters……wow…..I’m glad Schuerholtz has more sense than you. Geez, you’d think he was Dan Kolb, Albie Lopez, and Chris Reitsma all rolled into one with Jason Marquis’ poor attitude to boot….
Langerhans is a favourite of mine. Sadly he is doomed to defensive replacement with the signing of Wilson. I think his problem last year was that he tried to swing for power, and was trying to pull lots of balls. When he had success late in his rookie year, it was because he wasn’t averse to going the other way.
The one good thing about our lineup is that we seem to have a problem of plenty..which is always good.
Our rotation..well..plain sucks. At this point, if we are not a bottom third rotation, I would be happy. Too many questions, too many injury issues, too little upside.
As for Frenchy, check Bobby’s comment out from Peanut’s column. Thats about as pessimistic I have seen Bobby be about a player
ububba, I loved your analogy between Francoeur and Butch Hobson. Having watched Hobson for some time, it’s pretty accurate at this point. Hopefully, Frenchie will out grow the analogy.
I wrote on my blog that no one reads that Bobby’s comment scared me to no end. If Francoeur doesn’t improve his walks even at the rate that Peanut is so fond of (8 in last 29 of 2006, which translates to about 45 for a whole season), then we really are in for the second coming of Tony Armas, Sr.
“[Francoeur] can sit on pitches now,” Cox said. “He’s sharp kid. He is still working. He is not going to walk an awful lot, which is fine with me where he is hitting in the lineup. And I think if you took his aggression at the plate away from him, I don’t think he’d be as good.”
That comment by Bobby? What’s bad about that?
Godot, how was Bobby’s comment pessimistic?
I don’t hate Francouer (or any player other than Tomo Okha for hitting Andruw Jones in the head intentionally). I’m pissed that Bobby keeps running him out there. If his hometown were San Pedro de Macoris or Mayaguez or something we’d have never heard of the guy.
I don’t get what Godot’s saying either, Rob and Wryn.
And to add to what I said earlier re: Vandy basketball, well, you can add LSU to the list. I’m loving this turnaround.
I am trying to imagine a universe where Francouer is worse than he already is and I don’t like it. It’s really hot and smells like sulphur. OMFG!! There is Brutus and Cassius and Judas Iscariot.
Here’s a little preview of Monday… Jeff Francoeur is not a good player. He is a bad player. It is impossible to be a good player when you are an outfielder with an on-base percentage forty-five points below the league. He, to borrow a phrase, swings at everything. He may be a good player someday but right now he is a drag on the team.
No surprise there. But Atlanta fans would revolt if the best thing was done: putting Gregor Blanco out there instead.
why don’t we pay McCann’s dad to work with Frenchy. The kid has talent and ability, he just doesn’t play smart.
It’s hard not to like watching Langerhans play — it’s obvious that he’s taken a lifetime of good coaching to heart. His swing is simple and repeatable, he’s a great judge of fly balls. His arm is strong and accurate, and he gets rid of the ball quickly. He’s fast, but doesn’t take silly chances on the basepaths. In short, there’s no wasted effort, no wasted motion in Langy’s game.
He just seems to lack the gift. That doesn’t mean he’s not a useful guy to have around — because of his fundamentals, he’s not likely to see his production fall off a cliff, and you can stick him out there anytime you want to and not feel too badly about it. As has been said, he’d be a perfect 4th OF on a good team. He reminds me of Dave Martinez.
I can imagine such a universe, Mr. S@E: Move the Braves to Savannah or LA, someplace with dead air, and Frenchy loses a big chunk of his one useful offensive skill. (On the other hand, maybe we should try to move him to Colorado, where he can hit 40 HR and still suck, like Vinny Castilla.)
I’m not convinced that Gregor Blanco is the solution, although I liked him somewhat before last year. His power void is not really any better than Frenchy’s OBP vacancy. No home runs in 520 AB is hard to take from a corner outfielder, even with a .400 OBP. He runs a lot, but not well- 31 SB and 15 CS means you’re pretty much treading water in terms of value.
Man, Richmond was a bad team- four players there had OPSs over 700 in more than 20 AB- poor doomed Brayan Pena, Thorman, Blanco, and retread Wes Timmons. Only five players under 26 got 100 ABs (out of 15).
And of course, Mr. 184/ 252/ 243. JS Jr could be excused last year because he wasn’t blocking anyone, but if his existence interferes with Lillibridge’s development in any way, he should be dropped in the James River with cement spikes.
Wow Mac, that’s very harsh on Frenchy!!!
I know you’re just kidding around, Brian J., but that just seems mean-spirited. Schuerholz Jr. isn’t trying to suck, and it’s not his fault that he’s in a situation where he keeps getting promoted dubiously. He sounds like a nice guy, anyway.
I was just saying a completely average player like him could have had more overall value than Francoeur’s 2006 given 686 PAs. That’s what VORP means.
kc,
He’s not that far off. Francoeur is a bad player. Just like Pedro Feliz, he is a non-leadoff hitter with a leadoff hitter amount of outs.
Off to Panama, the land of Mariano Rivera & Rod Carew. I’ll give you a report on my cocktail party with the ballplayers—hopefully, there will be a story to tell. I mean, who wouldn’t be excited about meeting the likes of Omar Moreno? Adios.
to me, it seems as though francouer is that little kid trying to play with the guys that are about 3-4 years older than him, and the way he can prove himself is to swing, and swing, and swing. lets just hope for the best: he matures, realizes his weaknesses, adjusts, and becomes the player he could be. by the way, you guys are being way too hard on the guy. look at the positives. he hit 25 homeruns, 103 rbi’s, and got more patient toward the end of the year in his SECOND year. Dale Murphy had similar stats when he was a beginning professional and almost everyone on this board thinks he is HOF material. if he learns from his mistakes,jeff could be a hell of a player. he’s got power, clutch capability, good defense,and good speed. patience in all areas of his game need to be developed. on the basepath, in the outfield, and at the plate.
ryan c,
Murphy was better at K/BB ratio, for what it’s worth.
Ernie Johnson, Skip Caray, Pete Van Wieren, circa 1970
http://photos-071.ak.facebook.com/ip002/v56/120/38/12619154/n12619154_32426071_771.jpg
Cutting edge, eh?
94.9 The Bull and the Braves Radio Network will carry 12 pre-season Braves games, including two exhibition games vs. the Chicago White Sox at Turner Field. Legendary Braves announcers Skip Caray and Pete Van Wieren will call the action.
3/3 vs. Houston Astros (1:05pm)
3/4 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1:10pm)
3/10 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm)
3/11 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (1:05pm)
3/15 vs. New York Yankees (7:15pm)
3/16 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm)
3/17 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (1:05pm)
3/21 vs. Washington Nationals (7:05pm)
3/25 vs. Washington Nationals (1:05pm)
3/27 vs. Detroit Tigers (7:05pm)
3/30 vs. Chicago White Sox (7:05pm) @ Turner Field
3/31 vs. Chicago White Sox (1:05pm) @ Turner Field