Martin Prado

I never got around to a player analysis, and I know you’ve all been waiting…

Prado (or “Pardo”, as he’s referred to by the TBS graphics staff) is similar sort of player to Nick Green or Pete Orr, a guy who isn’t a good enough hitter to play regularly and isn’t really a shortstop so he’s hard to fit into a short bench. Prado is an improved model, a .300 hitter (actually .302, entering 2006) in the minor leagues. But he doesn’t have Green’s power or Orr’s legs, and probably isn’t as good of a glove as Green. It’s especially hard to fit two backup infielders who can’t play shortstop on the same bench — especially when that requires you keep L’il Tony Pena on the roster. When Aybar comes back, they’ll have three, and Aybar is clearly superior to the others. Prado is “better” than Orr in the sense that if you had to play one of them on a regular basis for any period of time you’d much rather have Prado. But Orr is a more valuable bench player because guys with his baserunning skills don’t grow on trees.

Prado had a good 2004 in Rome (.315/.363/.422), nothing to be too excited about but enough to make you think he might be worth something. But he hasn’t built on it and has declined, especially on the power end, moving up the ladder. It’s close to impossible to be a contributor on the major league level with a slugging percentage below .400 or isolated power below .100. Guys like this can bounce around for a long time. One year they might get lucky and hit .310 over 200 PA or impress a manager with their “scrappiness” and they wind up spending eight years bouncing between AAA and the bigs. It’s a living.

Martin Prado – Statistics – The Baseball Cube

96 thoughts on “Martin Prado”

  1. Isolated power is the measurement of power excepting batting average. It’s simple to compute, (slugging percentage) – (batting average).

    Now, slugging percentages among middle infielders are low enough that an .090 ISO at second base isn’t necessarily cause for alarm; if Prado could hit .300 his SLG wouldn’t be ridiculously low. The problem is that guys with that little power tend to get overwhelmed by major league fastballs. That’s the big reason I’m not particularly high on Gregor Blanco. That .399 OBP sure looks nice, but with a .348 SLG there’s nothing stopping major league pitchers from just firing fastballs in there. As a rule, if your BA and SLG aren’t at least 100 points apart, it doesn’t matter how many walks you draw in the minors.

  2. It took Rathbun and Torborg several games to stop pronouncing it “Pray-doh”. You’d think that pronouncing Latin names would be assumable at this point.

    I’m a little higher on him than Mac. I could see him having a Jose Oquendo type of career.

  3. Oquendo could play shortstop, though it really didn’t come up that often on that team. If Prado can play shortstop and hit .300 he can stick. I’m not convinced he can do either.

  4. That article suggests the Braves have the next Raul Mondesi. I didn’t like the current one.

  5. Palmer and Houshemansaidophadzada look good thought. which is good news since TJ is on my fantasy team.

    So today I’ve put alot of thought in the whole wildcard thing. The good news is we have 7 more against philly. Which puts alot of our fate in our hands since they look to be the strongest WC contender at the moment. This weekend has really compacted the field. With us back to 5.

    Also, the mets, being up 74 games on the division lead over everyone should start to pack it in soon. We still have 6 games against them while philly has none. Of course thats assuming they start resting people as we have done most years.

    Against is the fact Cincy has no more games left with ST L… so they won’t be eachother up out of the race.

    I think this weekend was a real wake up call. losing to pit and was like we did, all the talk about this being the first year alot of these guys won’t make the playoffs. It all really comes down to how well we play.

    This series is the first step. A sweep against the giants or at least 2 out of 3 can put them in a difficult position.

    Yes.. it’s a pipe dream. Yes we have about a 1% chance of making the playoffs, but there is a possibility and we have the talent to do it.

    Oh well there some wishful thinking.

  6. I can easily see the Mets not resting their stars during games with the Braves. Beating the Braves and officially knocking them out of the Wild Card race would be really satisfying for a lot of Mets’ players and for all of their fans. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks that.

  7. Me and Davey cant figure out what the hell i did with my fantasy football thing, do you think you could delete mine name and let me join again?

  8. Aybar may prove to be better than Prado (he certainly has better tools) but Prado still has potential. The important thing about comparing Prado and either Green or Orr is that the former reached the majors much earlier. It may be that this is as good as Prado gets, but it is also the case that he has the chance to become a much better player.

  9. I agree with UAE. Ive always though of Prado as a potentially average 2b…though id admit its not an opinion based entirely on reason.

    And Hate King, Aybar looks like he can be solid but he sure as HELL aint no Wilson Betemit. I seriously HATE seeing Aybar or Baez in a Braves uni cos it makes me think of Wilson…a guy i had i high hopes for since he was 18 and a joy to watch and a guy (if i may brag) i never gave up hope on

  10. Stephen, that’s a fair argument, and if Prado really is only 23 this month (I don’t know how reliable Venezuelan birthdates are) he could get better. I’m mainly worried because he hasn’t hit for any power at all in AA and AAA. I guess he could develop some.

    I do like him more than Orr or Green; it’s possible that he could become a league-average second baseman, which has a lot of value. Orr will never have more than tactical value.

  11. I take the point about Prado’s lack of power and speed. My gut feeling is that at best he is a Manny Trillo type–which is not a bad thing, but its not the most exciting ceiling for a player to have either.

    Otherwise, I am afraid that Orr may already be past his Sell By date…

  12. KC–Thanks for the link. I tend to be on the more sympathetic side of the JS question, but the article said it well–Smoltz has had the better year of the JS’s.

    If we had any bullpen at all, Smoltzie might be headed for another Cy Young award.

    In fact, the combination of great individual performances and poor team record is hard to take….

  13. In other news accounts, it sounds as though he’s found medication that works for him, which puts a little more positive spin on it. It was such an odd story to begin with — he isn’t destitute, and had never been in any trouble before. The subsequent revelations about his son’s death and his troubles with medication made it clear he was out of his head.

  14. not so good for the home team, but that is just speculating…

    A couple days before the media-created waiver wire circus that surrounded Jones earlier this month, he was asked if there was any chance he would take Boras out of the negotiating process like he did with his current contract. Jones smiled, indicated he wouldn’t, and then provided the reminder that this could be his final contract, one with which he wanted to make sure he maximized his opportunity.

    I guess I’ll never know the difference between earning $13 and $15 million a year. Right now, I’d have to say I’d forfeit $2 million a year to continue enjoying the comforts of a place that has been my home for my entire adult life. But over the course of a four-year contract, I’d be forfeiting $8 million. Even those of us who got a D grade in our economics course know that’s a hefty sum to leave on the table.

  15. Who should be in our starting rotation next year….

    1) Smoltz, Huddy, Hampton, Horacio, Davies
    2) Smoltz, HUddy, Hampton, Davies, James
    3) Smoltz, Hampton, Davies, Horacio, James and trade Huddy to get rid of the contract

  16. I guess I’ll take #2, though none of these options look like a playoff-caliber rotation to me.

  17. I also like #2 Best. I like james better than Horacio, although Horacio can shine at times.

    Really, its just going to matter what version of Hudson we will have, the Oakland Version or the Atlanta Version.

  18. would anyone trade Giles for Woody Williams? Giles would play for San Diego and I’m sure Peavy and Young aren’t going anywhere….I think I would

  19. I dunno, Giles would possibly like it, but when I look at the San diego infield I can’t see it working. Barfield is solid. I’m not too familiar with him, if Barfield could play SS then it might work out, but again I’m not sure if he’s played there before, some second basemen can play there, others can’t.

    However Greene is a very good defensive SS, and that move would bump him. While Greene can’t hit worth beans, they prob want the defensive specialist over there.

  20. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Giles this offseason. Also, I’d be willing to bet John Thomson has an interesting offseason.

  21. Barfield is going to be the second baseman fro the Padres for a while. Giles could move to third or something, but I am not sure that the Padres will want to do that. I think the best we could get for Giles is a number three starter. I say we package a deal with Giles and Salty as see if we can get a number two starter.

  22. didn’t todd walker move to third base to make room for Barfield? I don’t think they have room anywhere in their infield. Only hole i see for them is in left field. Dave Roberts is a solid contributor that will probably do for awhile. But as all of us braves fans know, 34 year olds need backups.

  23. RE: Verducci:
    He said Chipper won the ROY in 1995, but he didn’t. For some reason Nomo won it back when any Dodger who was a rookie had to win it or else.

  24. Holy crap, Smitty. When I clicked the link, out of the corner of my eye I saw the beginning of your post. When it said he won the ROY, I was like, “No he didn’t. I’m gonna post this on Braves Journal,” but you beat me to it!

  25. The real pitcher we need to target (if past treatment is not a reason to see him rejecting us) is Jason Schmidt. With Schmidt, Smoltz, Hampton, Atlanta Hudson, and Chuck James we are set in starting pitching. Or, alternatively, trade Atlanta Hudson. Trade Giles for upper level set-up and/or closer.

    In looking at extending or re-signing Andruw, look at his OPS. About two days ago, he was behind, Chipper, McCann, and LaRoche. Right now, LaRoche looks like a good bet to repeat at these numbers (partially solved lefthanders, averaging the recent hot streak against the terrible start to this year, the likelihood that the age and the medicine are both suggesting that the improvement could and should be real). McCann will probably regress (just because he has been so good for his age and his minor league stats. If he progresses anything like the average player, then about two years from now there is no way he is catching. My idea is to rotate Salty and McCann at catcher and first every other day when LaRoche gets expensive). Chipper should back off a little because of age, but damn, this is either his best or second best year in OPS ever.

    Defensive metrics keep saying (my eyes don’t fully believe this) that Andruw’s fielding is now average for center field. I know he isn’t as good now as the year’s that those same metrics say he was superior. I do believe that Francouer would be better in center today (which makes Frenchy’s offensive problems less of a problem). If you move Andruw to right, his offense has to be compared to right fielders, which isn’t as favorable. Therefore, don’t expect Andruw in Atlanta after next year.

  26. still no love for McCann

    Surprise NL award candidates
    Yes, Ryan Howard has thrust himself into the NL MVP debate thanks to his incendiary August, joining Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran in the race. But what about Miguel Cabrera? The Marlins’ third baseman deserves to be included in the discussion. The 23-year-old, who would be the youngest MVP winner since Johnny Bench (22 in 1970), is the best player on baseball’s biggest surprise team. He leads the NL in OBP, ranks second in hitting, fourth in OPS, and sixth in slugging and RBI

  27. One year they might get lucky and hit .310 over 200 PA or impress a manager with their “scrappiness” and they wind up spending eight years bouncing between AAA and the bigs.

    This seems to require a snarky Keith Lockhart comment, but I’m not creative enough to provide one.

  28. miggy is a fan-frackin-tastic hitter. i love him. he’s no MVP.

    mccann isn’t a realistic mvp candidate – he’s missed too much playing time. damn fine player though and one i’m glad to have.

    the francouer hbt article is interesting – the list he comes up with using the chi square test is very similar to the list of guys i found and included either here or on a primer post. i think jeff will raise his walk rate (how can he not?) but he still needs to hit .300 even if he improves his walks 100% to be a valuable contributor, and i’m not sure he’s a .300 hitter.

    andruw is probably average or below at this point. he’s just too slow and doesn’t get to too many balls. langerhans is much better; chris dial has him as the most valuable left fielder in baseball and possibly one of the three or four best outfielders.

  29. I was trying to work Lockhart in somehow, but Orr is more like Lockhart. The Canadian Lockhart, maybe. I was going to say Lockhart was better than Orr but looking at the stats, probably not. He did hit nine home runs in a season once.

  30. Andruw Jones is probably average or below? Who is better right now, even with Andruw’s leg and shoulder problems? Andruw may be too expensive for the Braves to keep when he becomes a free agent after 2007, but I’ll wager there will be plenty of contending teams eager to sign him to four to six years of megabucks.

  31. I agree that if Andruw were to agree to a trade, we would get more for him after this season. His blessing is not a given. I would rather he remain a Brave, but I realize that there are no guarantees after next season. Trade him, if you must, but get pitchers, not pitching prospects, if you do.

  32. Do you see an undercurrent of optimism in these posts?
    The Marlins have won 8 games straight. Who was the last team to beat them?
    You bet!
    Is it true that Saturday is a day-night doubleheader? Can we find two starters, ’cause a 5-2 week would shake up some people, for sure.

    If so, remember what Jim carrey said to the babe in “Dumb and Dumber?”

    “You mean there’s a chance!”

  33. We have had a few 5 win weeks this season. We had one in may and one in July. However the poops is that the Month of June was probably a 5 win month or something like that.

  34. sorry, it’s 6. I just counted. We won six games in June, not 5. 3 of those 6 were in the last week.

  35. we need to pick up a game on SF in this series and we have to take 3 out of the Phillies series, that’s our only hope and its still slim after that

  36. Don’t forget we need an ateroid to hit Miami, San Diego, Arizona, and Philladelphia. If we can jsut get that to happen, look out baby!

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