ChicagoSports.com – Furcal gets a house call
According to this, there are basically two suitors (with the Mets dropping out), the Braves and Cubs. And the contract offers are for similar values — four or five years, approximately $10 million a season. Given Furcal’s comfort level, the support the franchise gave him after DUI II, and the tax situations, I can’t imagine he’d leave the Braves unless the Cubs offered a good deal more money or an additional year. The Trib is practically the house organ for the Cubs — after all, the Tribune Company owns the team — and they sure sound like they’re telling the fans not to expect Furcal to sign. “Hey, we got Bobby Howry! And we’re about to sign John Mabry! What are you going to do, root for the White Sox?”
So he’s probably going to Chicago, considering my track record in these things.
So if Fucal accepts our deal for around this money, how much do we have left to spend?
from the last thread but its about this:
“Assuming Betemit becomes the starter, he should reproduce most (if not more) of what Furcal will take with him.”
WHAT!? Replacing Furky w Betemit would be a HUGE dropoff, esp on D but also on O
Since I seem to have a little bit of psychic ability, having predicted Theo Epstein’s departure FIVE DAYS before he actually quit (and I have documentation!), I will throw in my own prediction on this 😉
The Cubs have not yet set fire to a large pile of cash this offseason. Furcal is the perfect target. He’s gone, to the bigger budget and the better nightlife.
If we do resign Furcal, we should shop Betemit as quickly as possible, as he’ll officially be in Marte’s way at the point. And he really should get a chance to start somewhere.
I say move Betemit to LF if we re-sign Fookie. He’s too good to keep off the field.
He’s gone, to the bigger budget and the better nightlife.
I’m ok with that. For that kind of money they can have him. It’s ok to pay for superstars, but Furcal only occassionally plays at that level, always seems to be battling arm or shoulder problems, and of course has the other issues that make him a pretty good sized risk. If we were more desperate for a shortstop I might say ok, but we really shouldn’t be that desperate. We have lots of trading chips left to play and a pretty good fallback position (Betemit).
Based on the Howry and Eyre contracts, the Cubs must be signing Mabry for 5 years and $50M.
Stu, I agree about moving WB to left. How hard could it be for him. He has a good arm and can run well. He can get on base and hit as well as Langerhans. He is a good athlete and it will allow Langerhans to be the 4th out fileder that we need. Plus we could always move WB back to the infield if needed. He would be a super utility guy then.
I say we know the deal on Furcal by week’s end (I think we have until December 5 to sign him?)
Hoffman will follow right after him
Farnsworth looks like he may be going to the Yankees, according to ESPN Radio.
Here’s the tip of next year’s free agent iceberg (ie, the players that many of these teams will not be able to afford come this time in ’06):
Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Darin Erstad, Barry Zito, Carlos Lee, Andy Pettitte, Mark Mulder, Juan Pierre, Melvin Mora, Eddie Guardado, Trot Nixon
I’m pretty sure that’s why the Yankees haven’t made any panicky moves yet this offseason. That, and Cashman finagled himself a little bit of room to work without the Tampa execs stepping on his spine.
JP Ricciardi has truly gone insane. According to the Toronto Sun:
“And now Ricciardi is looking for another high-ranking officer/free-agent, making a five-year, $55-million offer to outfielder Brian Giles. The 34-year-old left-handed hitter batted .301 this season with 15 homers and 83 RBIs in 158 games for the San Diego Padres.”
A 5/55 deal for BRIAN GILES? The guy will be almost 40 by the time that contract runs out! I could see $11 million per year, but for 5 YEARS? What on earth is he thinking? I realize you have to pay extra to get guys to come to Toronto, but why do you have to give them more years? If they don’t like Toronto, why would they want to stay longer? Ricciardi’s gone nuts.
What on earth is he thinking?
He’s thinking that if he doesn’t do something to put a competitive team on the field next year, he’s going to be out on his ***. His successor is going to have a fun time trying to get rid of these silly contracts.
Nick Johnson and Barry Zito would look good in Braves’ uniforms. And does anyone think Furcal is worth $10 million per year for five years?
Why does Toronto have to pay a premium for players? Your dollar buys more there, it’s a very safe city where like 85% of people are satisfied with the police, there’s plenty to do, and when it’s raining, you don’t have to walk outside. Seems like a pretty good place to live.
nick johnson doesnt look good in anything with that mullet.
i am also curious about $. if the braves sign furcal, would they be able to sign any other big names? is estrada trade bait?
“If we do resign Furcal, we should shop Betemit as quickly as possible, as he’ll officially be in Marte’s way at the point. And he really should get a chance to start somewhere.”
Yes, Betemit should get to start somewhere and that place is Atlanta. Marte, no offense to anyone, doesnt deserve to be on the field yet primarily because he hasnt proven himself. A .270 average in AAA isn’t nothing to get excited about. If you ask me Betemit is superior to Marte at this point.
Marte, no offense to anyone, doesnt deserve to be on the field yet primarily because he hasnt proven himself.
*sigh*
Again, there’s an obvious catch-22 there for anyone who wishes to see it. You don’t want Marte to play until he’s proven himself…but he’ll never prove himself if you don’t give him a chance to play.
I like Betemit as a shortstop, but he can’t hit enough to hold down an outfield spot and he’s not good enough to block Marte at third.
Tanto! The voice of reason.
‘In the current market’ 10 mil for 5 looks good for Furcal. IF we are getting the guy that can produce the second half he did. If its just his career numbers then no.
I think he means prove himself in AAA. I agree; a .270 BA in AAA is a little low for a stud prospect. Yes, he is young, but on the same token, give him time.
Joey, probably because of Canadian tax rates. Also the weather, but that’s only a problem in March and sometimes September.
Is anyone familiar with Canada’s tax system? I’m wondering how financially lucrative it is, tax-wise, to play in Toronto.
and again… all good with Furcal leaving and Betemit playing SS, but…. WHO is gonna hit leadoff?
.270 is only one number. What if Marte hit .270, but each base hit was a homer? An absurd example, but important: Marte can be a very useful player in spite of his .270 AAA / .250 MLB average, so we shouldn’t fixate on that.
with given time, Marte and Betemit both have the potential to be great. I just dont think we shop Betemit if we dont resign Furcal. I think we have to give Betemit the shot at the position.
Marte will be fine w/ due time
Combined income tax rates, provincial and federal, for Ontario: 46.41% for the top bracket, which would include every major league player. There are other taxes, though, including a 7 percent federal sales tax.
Of course Marte could be valuable that’s why he is our top prospect, but with that said next year if we dont resign Furcal – Betemit will be more valuable to our team next year.
From http://www.taxtips.ca/tax_rates.htm#ONTaxRates, taxes.yahoo.com/rates.html, and http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/ind_inc.html
Marginal rate of 46.41% Federal + Ontario on income over $115,000 CDN.
By comparison, Georgia would be 35% + 6% on income over $320,000, while California would be 35% + 9.8%.
My rough estimate is that the difference would be a couple of hundred thousand for a $10 million contract for a Padre and maybe $600,000-700,000 for a Brave versus a Blue Jay. Of course, effects of various tax shelters are not considered.
WHAT!? Replacing Furky w Betemit would be a HUGE dropoff, esp on D but also on O
I was only referring to offense where
Betemit .305/.359/.435 104OPS+ 5.69RC/27
outperformed (marginally)
Furcal .284/.348/.429 100OPS+ 5.26RC/27
Betemit is likely to get better, Furcal is likely at or near peak. I say again, Betemit can replace most of what Furcal takes with him, with the possibility of being better.
For a 9.5 million dollar difference, I would rather have Betemit over Furcal.
If Furcal resigns and the Braves choose to move Betemit to the outfield, could you see them trading Langerhans away for a closer…say the Mariners who are looking a for a left handed LF?
Is Langerhans untouchable? Does it matter whether the Braves sign Furcal or not?
I wouldnt think Langerhans is untouchable, but I think you would see Johnson traded for a reliever possibly. I think Betemit would be traded before they considered moving him to the outfield.
ESPN’s most recent article doesn’t even mention Betemit as an option:
I’m unenthusiastic about Lugo, but Berroa would just be a disaster. He struggles for a .300 OBP every year.
Yeah, seriously, how would Berroa be anything other than a significant downgrade from Betemit? That can’t be right.
I’m not that familiar with the Braves situation, but is your need for a closer (especially a relatively affordable one) big enough to trade away either of these young guys?
What would the Braves demand to get a deal done? M’s absorb some salary, a prospect, or what?
I like Betemit (there was a time when only I liked Betemit) but his OBP is a bit deceptive. He received 22 walks last year. Four of them were intentional, and several others were semi-intentional. I think he’s likely to slug .475 or so playing full time, but I don’t know if he can maintain a .350 OBP yet.
Also, he was pretty terrible as a righthanded hitter (.256/.289/.372, versus .327/.390/.464 lefthanded) and there’s a good chance that he at least needs a righthanded glove man as a platoon partner.
the mets are gonna get delgado, wagner and maybe manny and we’re gonna get angel berroa.
i don’t think so.
we should sit tight and let JS do his thing. Last year we got Hudson. The year before it was Drew and before that Sheff.
Surely, JS is up to something and it will surprise everyone when it goes down.
i bet he hates the mets more than all of us together.
I’m not that familiar with the Braves situation, but is your need for a closer (especially a relatively affordable one) big enough to trade away either of these young guys?
What would the Braves demand to get a deal done? M’s absorb some salary, a prospect, or what?
We don’t want Eddie Guardado, thanks.
I’m not much good at reading tax law, but it looks like having a baseball team in Canada may not be all that great of an idea to begin with. Their business tax rates are higher than in the U.S., income and sales tax are substantially higher, and they have something called a capital tax that the U.S. doesn’t. I’m not sure what parts of a baseball team qualify as capital vs. labor, if any, but it seems like the cost of doing business in Canada is substantally higher than in the U.S. There have been papers written by Canadians worrying about how this is affecting their foreign investment. Tax rates in Quebec are worse than in Ontario, too, so it’s not surprising that the Expos had trouble. Toronto seems to be having the same problems on a smaller scale; they’ve been operating at a loss for years now. Maybe they should move as well.
On the other hand, the US dollar has been weak in recent years, so the Canadian dollar is stronger in comparison. Which may explain the Jays’ buying spree.
The unanswered question about who’s batting leadoff for the Braves is a good one. I agree that Marcus is far more valuable to us as a #2 hitter than a leadoff hitter, but I think he’s our best option right now. One possible lineup:
1. Marcus 2B
2. Betemit SS
3. Chipper 3B
4. Andruw CF
5. McCann C
6. Frenchy RF
7. KJ/Ryno LF
8. LaRoche 1B
9. Pitcher
If we could get Marte in at first, so much the better. What do you guys think?
Team about to get busy | Braves | ajc.com
I dunno. O’Brien says that he doesn’t expect a decision from Furcal until the end of the winter meetings, but all indications from elsewhere is that he’s going to sign before the meetings. You know how I feel about the AJC — he’s probably wrong. Something else…
Yeah, but the Mets don’t have any chips left to deal.
Line up IMO
KJ/Langerhans
Marcus
Chipper
Andruw
Marte/LaRoche ( platoon )
Frenchy
McCann
Betemit
pitcher
To me, the interesting question is what is happening to the pitching staff.
3 certs in the rotation : Hudson, Smoltz, Thomson
Horacio is the 4th if he is not traded, as he definitely can’t pitch from the pen.
So the 5th starter is between Davies, Sosa and Lerew?
And the pen : 2 of the losers from above or does Lerew get sent to AAA? Mcbride, Boyer, Brower, Baker, Foster, closer(?)
Oops forgot reitsma in the pen!
Isnt he arb eligible? Is he going to get a big raise?
If we keep Reitsma, and don’t sign Furcal, we really are only looking for a closer…and a big corner bat if we can get one.
Also, the Mets look pretty certain to land a free-agent catcher, it’s just up to Molina and Hernandez to decide which one.
The only plums the Mets have left for trade are Heilman and Milledge, and they’re not going anywhere unless it’s to Boston for Manny.
Jenny, almost every baseball team (besides maybe the New York teams and the Angels) technically operates at a loss. Let’s take the Braves, who lose money every year. Of course, from Time Warner’s perspective, they aren’t losing money because of cross promotions and the sweetheart TV deal. Also, the value of every franchise grows as an asset every year so rapidly it more than makes up for any “loss” on the books.
There are far more cities that could support a major league team than the ones that have them. Toronto is a great place to have a club, and there are even more viable markets, but MLB’s antitrust exemption allows them to keep clubs from popping up or moving to Brooklyn, Las Vegas, or, until recently, DC. Toronto has more than enough resources to support an MLB franchise, even with the taxes.
On that note, I would LOVE to see the Devil Rays move to Brooklyn. That would hurt the Mets and Yanks revenue advantages, and it would add another competitive team to the league.
There are so many markets. Toronto is more than viable, and it’s certainly better than a few of the existing markets.
My only question is, if we don’t sign Frucal, what do we do with the money? It’s looking like Brian Giles may end up in Torotno, and I don’t see the Braves getting too involved with AJ Burnett, so that pretty much leaves us out of the “big” free agent market with quite a bit of cash left to burn.
Google’s a great tool. Apparently most of the “losses” of MLB owners are due to the various tax shelters they employ, like the Roster Deprecition Allowance, which allows you to depreciate the sale price of the franchise over 15 years. If MLB sells the Nats for $300 million, the new owner gets to subtract $20 million a year for tax purposes over 15 years. So, if the Nats make $15 million in their first year, the owner is able to report a $5 million loss to the IRS to remove the tax liability.
I’m sure there are other shelters, too, for owners with greater revenue or who can’t exercise the RDA. That one’s just easy to understand.
Mac, responding to your posts earlier.
How many AB’s did Betemit have both RH and LH. Do you have any numbers for that. It might give us a better idea of whether or not he needs help from the right side.
My only question is, if we don’t sign Frucal, what do we do with the money?
Getting Marcus’s signature on a long term contract is where I would start. Throwing money at the next Felix Hernandez would be number two. Competing in this year’s FA market just seems like a recipe for disaster.
Betemit .305/.359/.435
Furcal .284/.348/.429
This is strictly back-of-the-envelope stuff (the only stat analysis I’m good for, if that) but for argument’s sake let’s assume that they both replicate this performance next year. Not an outrageous assumption — Betemit might lose some BA and/or gain some SLG, but whatever.
Say we lose Furcal and install Betemit. As Mac noted, he would likely be teamed with a defensive sub, so I’m going to assume 600 PA for Wilson and 100 for the glove guy. Presumably, the glove guy would give back the offensive advantage, making the batting stats a wash. But lets say glove guy fields with the same proficiency as Furcal — we’re left with the difference between Furcal’s D and Betemit’s D in the amount of time Betemit spends on the field.
Let’s say that’s 135 games worth of Betemit D. I contend that Furcal would save 25 hits (we’ll assume they’re all singles) and 20 additional bases (forceouts, first-to-thirds, etc) during that amount of time. One base saved every three games. Obviously you could quibble with that assumption, but I believe it’s in the realm of reality.
Now, let’s go back to the offensive numbers…
Betemit + Glove .284/.348/.429
Furcal .284/.348/.429
…and take away 25 hits and 45 total bases from B + G. 700 total PA would equate to 181 for 638, 62 BB, 274 TB, so the adjusted numbers would be 156 for 638, 62 BB, 229 TB):
B + G .2445/.311/.359 670 OPS
Furcal .284/.348/.429 777 OPS
So would we be able to spend the extra $8 million wisely enough to make up this difference? I have no idea.
According to ESPN stats:
Betemit RH: .256/.271/.661 in 78 AB
Betemit LH: .327/.464/.855 in 168 AB
Also, ESPN says the Dodgers are still in the Furcal hunt, with a meeting scheduled tonight with Colletti.
Farnsworth signs with the Yankees..
supposedly 3/17
Source, Godot? I can’t find that.
2 sources really
scout.com and primer. No link on primer yet.
No source for me either, but Yankees fans are speaking of it as fact. If it’s true the Braves need to pull out of the Furcal hunt immediately and throw 2/14 plus incentives at Hoffman. I do not want to go into 2006 with Todd Jones at closer.
I guess Gordon is still an option too, but the arms are all going fast.
All that’s on the web is that the Yanks are talking to him.
It comes from Bill Shanks on scout.com. According to him, the Braves offered 3/13, and he would have stayed for 3/15. Also according to the article, he had offers of 3/13 from the cards and 3/15 from the tigers and indians.
Also, according to the article, he’ll get an additional one million a year if he’s the closer.
Right now, the only source is Shanks on scout.com.
So, no source at all.
Random thought here. I just saw an article about the Yanks moving Jeter (probably) Arod(possibly) to Center. This would create in infield opening … if they do it. The Yanks could use a leadoff man … and if Jeter moves to center and Arod stays at third ……
Well … just conjecture … but the Yanks did just finish their meetings.
The Braves’ sweetheart deal with TBS means what? Does it mean TBS saves money by getting to broadcast Braves cheaply? Why are they broadcasting fewer games each year? Yankees make a huge amount on their television deal.
It means TBS/Turner South underpay the Braves for the broadcast rights.
Note that, although TBS is broadcasting fewer games, the sum of games on TBS and Turner South isn’t changing. Time Warner just thinks it’s more valuable to have Braves games keeping their crappy network afloat.
Thanks Joey, I just read that major league baseball charges tbs for nationally broadcast games (TBS) but not for regional (Turner South)http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/18bravestv.html
3/17 seems too low for Farns given what BJ signed for. I wouldn’t pay more, but I think he’ll get it…
If those numbers are right on Farnsworth, I’m a bit surprised. I thought he might command a little more given what Wagner and Ryan got. Maybe the plan is to continue on with a crappy bullpen and sign Furcal.
I think if Farnsworth waits until Furcal signs with the Cubs, he’ll probably get a better deal from the Braves. The Braves only have like 13 or 14 mil left in their budget, right? They probably can’t offer Farns more than 3/13 until they know Furcal won’t take 5/50. Once we lose Furcal to the Cubs (or Dodgers), Farns could get 3/15.
Of course, if the Yanks really do offer 3/17 with $3 mil of incentive, he’s not signing with the Braves.
The yankees have made farnworth an offer he can’t refuse. He’ll take it.
Furcal will be back.
The only question remains as to who will close. My best guess, they bring in some “veteran” who may or may not be capable of performing as a backup plan and give devine a chance to earn the spot. Either that or they trade for someone about the be a free agent after next season.
With Hamptons contract set to balloon after 2006, they can’t afford another big, multiyear deal.
Say hello to Todd Jones, 2006 closer!
If I was still doing the Road From Bristol, I’d post this there:
EDSBS 52 REASONS ESPN/ABC/DISNEY SUCKS
Steffen, are you serious? Do you have a link for that?
I’m sorry, I realize that you may be joking. But whenever someone says something like “Todd Jones, 2006 closer” I get really paranoid.
Yeah, the Braves are going with the Jones collection approach for this offseason!
Seriously, the way I look at it, the Braves have around $18M to spend. They are gaining $23M through the following items:
Chipper’s give back: 5M
Hampton’s insurance: 6M
Furcal’s 2005 salary: 5.6M
No more Kolb: 3.4M
Not Mondesi again: 1M
No Tom Martin: 0.9M
No Gryboski: 0.9M
I am not even counting Julio’s $1M as well as $0.6M each for Jordan and Perez.
So, how the Braves can spend this $23M? Additional salary for arbitration for Marcus, Sosa, Reitsma and Ramirez should cost around $5M in total (assuming Estrada will be traded away). So, that leaves $18M for the likes of Furcal, Hoffman, or other possibilities through trades.
The above assumes the Braves accounts for Smoltz’s, Hudson’s, and Hampton’s contract value evenly over the duration of their respective contracts.
Anybody see anything missing from the above?
Furcal: $10M
Sorry, forgot to delete the Furcal’s assumed 2006 salary on the last line. I was going to do another breakdown on how to spend that $18M, but I figure there are too many possibilities.
Keep Furcal
I forgot Furcal made $5.6 million — from my previous post, change this:
So would we be able to spend the extra $8 million wisely enough to make up this difference?
to this:
So would we be able to spend the extra $3-$4 million wisely enough to make up this difference?
and this:
I have no idea
to this:
Probably not.
Keep Furcal!
kc, there’s something you’re forgetting in your look at the financial situation. You’re not considering what they’ll have next year or the year after that. But the front office will consider that. And because the Braves will being paying Hampton a lot more next year and the year after, they can’t neccessarily afford a big contract, even if they have enough for it this year. The way I see it, they have one big mutliyear deal they can make. In other words, a furcal or a hoffman (or whoever else is left in that area), but not both.
Mac, that list is hilarious. Thanks for posting it.
http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/30furcal.html Cubs frontrunners for Furcal article
According to article the Braves are looking heavily at Lugo, who was released by the Astros for being a bad person, he is do 4.75 million next year. The Rays want third base and starting pitching in return. Lugo has been a leadoff hitter before and this is his last year of his contract.
Grst, didn’t we amortize Hampton’s contract to spread it out more evenly? I’ve heard that said here.
I read the ajc article, but made the mistake of looking at the blog. Not to sound elitist, but just…wow. Not for the faint of heart. It’s like a Bellevue for the half-informed fan.
I can live with Furcal leaving if we get Lugo, i don’t know for some reason I think Lugo would be a good fit, even if he hits around his career AVG which is like .275, he is a great filler for a season.
Grst, you are exactly right in what you are saying. However, Thomson’s $4.25M will be off the book after next season and Hampton will be put right into Thomson’s spot, so that covers most of the insurance money. On the other hand, LaRoche will be eligible for arbitration next off season, and the baby Braves will be eligible for arbitration after 2007 season. So, any commitments beyond two to three years are very dangerous. This is why I am still not very certain if keeping Furcal is a good idea from a long term perspective considering the Braves have two advanced prospects at shortstop.
Great filler… like Betemit?
I get nervous where it says they want a 3rd basemen, though I guess we’re not ever going to use Marte anyways. Depending on the draft picks we’d lose, I’d almost rather get Alex Gonzalez…
Grst, if you are concerned about Hampton’s contract, I am fairly confident that it is booked evenly over six years. Even if JS wants to book the contract on cash basis, he will not be allowed to do so because of the financial controls within a listed company.
Two comments about the brilliant “52 Reasons ESPN Sucks” list:
The single reason I agreed with the most was 46.
“46. Not enough Sumo. The Bashos rule, and we have no idea when they?re on.”
This should have been 53:
“53. Brian Kenny yelling ‘One run will score! Two runs will score!’ during every single highlight on Baseball Tonight.”
The AP put out an article in the last hour that says talks have “intensified” between the Yanks and Farnsworth, and cites a source that said today that talks are still ongoing.
Although it’s not a direct contradiction of the Shanks article (the source could have been asked before Shanks published), it does not bode well for the grammarphobe.
In the last HALF hour, Newsday put out an article saying talks have intesified between the Yanks and Farns, and that they have a 3/15 on the table.
Shanks is up defending himself on his message board:
“I don’t need anyone to confirm it to know that it is correct information. I know it’s correct.”
If it’s anything but a 3/17, I’ll laugh. If he ends up signing with anyone but the Yanks, I won’t stop laughing for a week.
If, however, it’s a 3/17 with the Yanks, I’ll have to give props and actually attribute him some credibility in the future.
Now mlb.com is citing an anonymous “baseball official” saying Farns will sign a three year between 15-17. Did Shanks strike gold eight hours before the rest of the world? Or did he just make up a number to go along with the signing everyone was predicting?
Here’s the thing I don’t get. Why not post this story for all the world to see? That’s got to bring more press and credibility to the site than subscriptions to “premium” analysis. The fact that no one else is substantiating the report makes me a bit skeptical, but it could be true. The AJC and NY papers ought to have something on this by now if there is something to it. But hey, that’s just my opinion, which is bound cause at least one person to become irate with me.
Asshole.
Is it just me or are the Yankees and Mets going to sign every free agent on the market? And if they do, how will they fit them all on the 25 man roster? I think this is a ploy to stock their minor league teams with decent vets (like you do in MLB 2005) so thier minor league teams can win tons of games. Just a thought.
I also hope Farnsworth signs with a team like the Mets or the Yanks. He is a head case and will blow up under the presure. He always has and always will. Fransworth will be out of baseball in three years.
It’s probably too late now, but I was really hoping Farnsworth would sign with a team like the Braves.
Someone should write a book on how much ESPN sucks, because there is more than enough material to fill a volume of War and Peace length. And it would sell like hotcakes. The only problem is, it would actually require watching a lot of ESPN to get material, at which point the potential author would probably either die or have a nervous breakdown. Although I do have one positive comment: I hate ATH but Michael Smith is worth listening to. Unfortunately, he’s usually on with Bill Plaschke, which cancells that out.
My newest pet peeve, though, is the MNF announcers. God, are Madden and Michaels awful. Last week, they would alternately praise and condemn Brett Favre for throwing into triple coverage. If it worked, he was “daring and that’s why he’s Brett Favre.” If it didn’t and got picked, which happened 4 times, I believe, he “should not be throwing the ball into triple coverage! Poor decision-making by Favre.” And last night was just as bad. Someone please shut these men up!
If anyone is looking for a good book, I’m in the middle of Bill Felber’s The Book on the Book, which attempts to quantify common baseball strategies and assess whether they work or not. He also figures out a way to rank GMs by wins added. It’s pretty technical, but very intriguing.
Yeah, I ordered The Book on the Book as soon as JC recommended it in the other thread. I can’t be bothered with “bookstores”.
I actually like Madden sometimes. Sometimes he busts out with some knowledge on coverage schemes and line play that’s pretty good. Also, last night, he verified my initial read on that ridiculous low block call after my friends looked at me like I was nuts, so he’s on my cool list.
Too often, though, he either resorts to uninformative cliches or blabbers about non-football topics. When he watches the game and analyzes, he’s okay. He’s not Jaworski, but he’s better than most. Unfortunately, he just gets worse about the other stuff every year.
Helpful Rotoworld distillation of AJC article:
Can’t imagine they wouldn’t discuss Baez in the process, maybe adding another arm and bumping up the quality. They’d both be one-year rentals–but we might not need them much longer than that anyway.
I haven’t read this entire thread, but I get the idea…
Screw Furcal. $4 mil./yr. is too much, $10 mil??? You have GOT to be kidding me. Let the Cubs have him. I predict his value will drop like Paris Hilton’s thongs in the coming weeks.
Toronto Yankeed the market for Ryan. The question is…What do we need more? Raf or a REAL closer?
Wagner?
Hoff?
I’d love to see either wearing the Tomahawk for the same price.
With no Leo, should we rebuild? (We kind of have been anyway)
Just my $0.02
C’mon guys.
“I can live with Furcal leaving if we get Lugo, i don’t know for some reason I think Lugo would be a good fit, even if he hits around his career AVG which is like .275, he is a great filler for a season.”
YES…I agree! Furcal’s last half numbers were great, but not 10 mil a year great. Now if he produced like that for his career, maybe. Well definitely.
I think there are too many good prospects in the system to keep Furcal for 5 more years. Andrus could wait, but what to do with Escobar? He was fun to watch in Rome….he fields like a pro, hits well (yes, class A, but we’ll see…), and he whistles throughout the entire game!
Betemit is younger than Lugo and better offensively. I don’t much see the point in sacrificing Betemit’s offense and whatever prospects the Braves would have to get up for a minor defensive upgrade. I just don’t see the point.
According to http://www.mlbtraderumors.com, the Cubs offered a four-year deal worth $38M to Furcal. If that’s the Cubs final offer, I am sure Furcal will stay with the Braves. I am guessing JS will offer Furcal a four year deal worth $32M.
I think it’s ultimately up to the Cubs if they really want Furcal or not because I don’t think JS will go beyond 4 yr / $34M. If the Cubs offer him 5/50M, Furcal is gone.
Well, this is what AJC just updated on Furcal:
http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/30furcal.html
I am guessing the Cubs are indeed offering Furcal 5yr/$50M. Good luck Cubs!!!
The troubling line is at the end where Schuerholz says that he is working on the SS situation. Bad news for Betemit me think 🙁
Unless JS is just blowing a smokescreen our way..
I still don’t get it, why are we not pursuing milton bradley more aggresively..if he is going to resurrect his image anywhere, it is going to be under Bobby Cox. And cheap power hitting, speedy outfielders are rare these days..
Personally I would consider the offseason fruitful if
a) we get bradley for peanuts
b) sign Nomar for a 1 yr deal
c) DO NOT sign/trade for Lugo/ assorted scrubs
d) trade for a power arm like Colome/Rodney..or even someone like sisco/affeldt. below the radar but lots of potential.
e) trade away horacio / estrada while they still have value
Furcal will probably leave for 50/5. If he stays, it frees JS to trade Betemit.
JS usually likes to lie low and then make an a really smart move.
With that, I wonder if the A’s signing Loaiza means that Zito is gone. It might be hard to imagine that Beane would deal with the Braves again, but how about Zito for James, Betemit (especially if Furcal stays) Johnson/Langerhans and Jurries. Obviously Estrada could be involved as well. I realize that Zito might be a difficult signing, but I can see JS making the investment.
Maybe we will wind up with Lugo after all…
wow thats a ton you want to trade for a 1 yr rental of slightly above average pitcher..
heck I wouldnt trade James for Zito straight up!!
But then, I think James is undervalued, and people are reading too much into his off field antics and wierd delivery.
If you wouldn’t trade James for Zito straight-up, Godot, then I don’t think anyone here can help you. Or wait for you.
Ok, look at it this way.
last 3 yrs, Zito ahs put ERA+ of 115, 105, 120 over 200+ IP each year. His main attribute is durability. He is paid $8 mil this year, and in his new contract, almost certainly atleast 10 mil per year.
Those are numbers which you get currently from john Thomson in the Braves rotation ( 115 ERA+, 200 IP )
The hype about Zito is due to the Cy in the past, part of the Big 3 et al.
Chuck James’ lower end projection is for him to be Eric Milton. Eric Milton in his first 3 big league years put up era+ of 110 avg over 200 IP. And chuck james can be had for league minimum.
Given all these facts, I say trading for Zito is a bad idea.
JoeyT, there are also these nice little places called libraries where you can get books and read them! If they suck, you haven’t wasted $24.99. They’re also useful if you want to read books by authors you hate, i.e. Dan Shaughnessy, Pete Rose, Jose Canseco, because then you can enjoy the book and not give them royalty checks!
😉
Given the contracts handed out to relievers so far, maybe trading for Zito is not such a bad idea. Why pay 4-5 mil for a quality setup man when you can pay 8 mil for an excellent starter, then bump Sosa to the pen to be that quality setup man? I still think the chances of Sosa being a long term success are much greater in the bullpen than in the rotation, and this one move would upgrade 2 spots on the pitching staff.
I would trade James for Zito; James is Dan Meyer 2.0, except older, an a$$hole, and with much worse mechanics.
Godot, why are you so high on Bradley? He gets hurt once every two years, and his only good season was his half season with the Indians in 2003. His existence will only take away at-bats from Kelly Johnson and Langerhans, and I have not even started on his troublesome past.
Why do you want Nomar? No GM in baseball is willing to give him another chance at shortstop, that’s how bad his defense has gotten.
Ahh the caveats of mechanics and personality 🙂
A$$holes tend to be very successful actually!!
More seriously, Meyer’s stats were too good for him to drop totally off the cliff. He is being rested, and everyone has their fingers crossed. James IMO is as good a prospect as Meyer was last year. He is older ( but last year, was just his second full pro season, and he was a cert first rounder before his lil dive )
I don’t mind trading James, just not for 1 yr of Zito, unless the A’s want to throw in Garcia. Ofcourse that proposal would send all the Beanie babies apopletic 🙂
anyone seen this article about measuring the dollar value of a player? they use a strange methodology, but furcal is in the top 10 in the league, interesting nonetheless
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-the-dollar-value-of-a-player-part-3/
Godot, why are you so high on Bradley? He gets hurt once every two years, and his only good season was his half season with the Indians in 2003. His existence will only take away at-bats from Kelly Johnson and Langerhans, and I have not even started on his troublesome past.
I’ll chime while we’re waiting for Godot (ha! I just kill myself!). Bradley is better than KJ or Langerhans, and has outhit them at every level, and will continue do so. Last year he was still good for an 121 OPS+. That would have been behind only the 2 Jones’ and about even w/ Francouer. He has shown that he is capable of much better than that, if left alone to do his thing. He also happens to be cheap, and a quality defender. I’d also take that Choi guy they don’t seem to want anymore. Our offense needs another hitter, and apparently we can’t afford to buy one. Bradley is undervalued right now, cheap and good, potentially very good.
Re:Bradley
He is a good defender, good for 20+ HR, 15+ steals, and high average hitter. Historically his problems have been attitude ( which got him kicked out of Cleveland and now LA). Bobby Cox’s uber strength seems to be managing personalities, so I am guessing he can keep him in line. As for injury, he is Drew-lite, but way way less injury prone.
Its a gamble, but if you want value for less money, thats the risk you take.
Re:Nomar
He is basically positionless right now. but still a good hitter. He put up pretty good #s after he came back from his groin injury last year. A 1 yr deal with incentives is once againa gamble, but if you keep him healthy, you are going to get a premium bat.
I am guessing since we can’t compete with the Mets in terms of throwing money around, we need to find bargains and gambles available in the market right now.
Our chances are slim
http://www.ajc.com/wednesday/content/epaper/editions/wednesday/sports_34d8953d04c5d00200b6.html
Would you rather have Lugo at 5 mil or Betemit at 500,000 if you had to choose?
Did anyone see that Konerko turned down a 5yr/65 mil offer! Wow must be nice to be able to turn down that kind of an offer.
Also, Bonds will be playing in the World Baseball Classic if anyone cares
Did anyone see that Konerko turned down a 5yr/65 mil offer! Wow must be nice to be able to turn down that kind of an offer.
Well it was from Baltimore so…
Looks like Konerko is headed out here to play for Arte. Apparently the only things holding up negotiaions are his reluctance to get a dark suntan and to find a way to tack a ‘z’ onto the end of his name. Nothing they can’t work through.
Rosenthal is reporting the same deal for Farns that Shanks reported, FWIW.
Also, Rosenthal reported that the Braves are not bidding on Hoffman….
I think “Konerkerro” has a nice ring to it…
Kyle, Rosenthal is reporting “close to signing”. Not “has signed” like Shanks reported yesterday.
Apparently the suntan was a deal breaker. Konerko’s staying with the White Sox. 5/60
Thus ending Frank Thomas’ White Sox career, at least until he heads back in a few years to be part of their front office.
He may be the Old Hurt now, but that Auburn boy would represent a gigantic upgrade over our current 1B sitch if he’d take an incentive laden contract – assuming Cj is anchored at 3rd and Marte won’t be allowed to play or is traded for some stupid reason.
how abou this? the marlins are selling the farm, and we have youngsters to give. pierre in left and lugo at short and we would actually improve. i think lugo and furcal are a wash. we did just lose our best relief pitcher from a bullpen that cost us a shot at a title last year so i think chipper’s money should go to studding up the bullpen as much as possible.