I am not willing to say with any degree of certainty (say, 75%) that any individual pitcher will be a member of next year’s bullpen. History shows that at least three or four pitchers will return, but I’ve little idea which ones.
Dan Kolb and Chris Reitsma… Are Dan Kolb and Chris Reitsma. Both are eligible for arbitration. It’s impossible to believe that the Braves will offer Kolb a contract, but then I figured Reitsma was a goner after last season. Kolb probably won’t get a major league deal after being the worst reliever in the league last year. (Not just my subjective opinion; that’s what the numbers say. I blame JC for sponsoring his Baseball-Reference page.) I don’t think he’s at the free agency threshold yet, but it doesn’t matter because he’ll be looking for work. Right?
Reitsma is, objectively, a valuable pitcher. He’s a lot more valuable in a Strat or APBA game than in reality, though, because then you don’t have to put up with the reality of his very real limitations. He goes into funks where he can’t get anyone out, apparently because of a fatigue problem. Because of a relatively low strikeout rate (it plummeted to 5.16 this year, the lowest since his rookie season, after steadily rising) he isn’t the kind of pitcher you want in the ninth, and because of the need to limit his innings you don’t want him as a primary setup man. So you have a 60-inning pitcher you can’t use more than three times a week or he’ll run out of gas. I still think that he’s better suited for 30 starts than 70 relief appearances and someone will try that someday. I think he’ll be back in the Braves’ bullpen in 2006, though.
Kyle Farnsworth was great for the Braves in the regular season, 10-10 in save opportunities, a 1.98 ERA, but then there’s Game Four to deal with. He’s a free agent, and probably left at least $5 million on the mound at Minute Maid Park. (Homers were his only problem with the Braves; after giving up just one in Detroit, he allowed four in Atlanta in about half the innings.) I’d like for the Braves to resign him, I guess. I think he’s at least capable of being Closer X, the average ninth-inning reliever who won’t kill you during the regular season. He’s not Mariano Rivera or Brad Lidge or Billy Wagner, but those guys cost $10 million a season and there aren’t very many of them. You’re probably better off hoping to find the elite guy from within.
I am not sure about Jim Brower’s service time but I think he’s eligible for free agency. If you can keep him for about what he made last year ($1,162,500) I think it’s probably worth it. He pitched well after his demotion and recall, and overall was a little better than league average for the Braves after being terrible for the Giants. You have to have these guys, especially if you have a lot of kids in the bullpen.
That seems to be likely; I expect that the Braves will open the season with at least three pitchers with a year or less of major league experience on the roster. John Foster is a little more experienced than that, but not much. After looking strong much of the year he was clearly not right late, and missed some time with an injury. He will probably never be fully sound again, but he’s a lefthander with a decent strikeout rate, so he’ll probably pitch for years, occasionally missing time. Walks a lot of guys, but LOOGYs do that. The problem was that he was more likely to walk a lefthander than a righthander, and more likely to give up an extra-base hit to a lefty than a righty. Of course, the righties he faced were often pretty weak hitters (that’s why he got to face them) but he might be in the wrong job. He probably has to be on the roster or allowed to leave as a free agent, though he might also be a trade chit. A small one.
Macay McBride looks like a natural LOOGY, though. He was death on lefthanded hitters (.172/.226/.207) and a dead man against righties (.433/.500/.467). He’s got great stuff, but right now, at least, doesn’t look like he can move beyond that role. You know how Bobby likes to see the ball on the ground; McBride allowed just two extra-base hits, both doubles. He should be the lefthanded specialist next year but has to pitch well in spring.
Blaine Boyer has one of those mysterious arm injuries that sometimes just linger on. Mysterious arm injuries are bad news. I keep thinking of Kevin McGlinchy, whose promising career was essentially ended (he’s still bouncing around the minors) after basically a season’s worth of pitching by an injury. Boyer was very good for the Braves last year, and losing him put a big dent on an already stretched bullpen. If he’s healthy, he should be in the bullpen mix next year and may have closer potential. Check out his August numbers, before his arm went bad: 13 1/3 IP, 12 K, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 R.
Joey Devine… Sigh. He’s another guy who isn’t fully healthy, and a guy who’s got the goat label for losing a postseason game a couple of months into his professional career. I don’t know that he’s ready, and I don’t know about him as an elite reliever. His pitching style looks to me like he’s going to be vulnerable to lefties, that he’s always going to be vulnerable to lefties, and that you’re not going to be able to use him as a closer because of that. (“Delgado steps in. Devine sets… Here’s the pitch… Oh. Oh my God. I think Delgado just hit LaRoche’s head off. Yes, the ball took LaRoche’s head with it, that’s a three run homer.”)
I mentioned in the last entry that Chuck James and Anthony Lerew both might wind up in the pen eventually. But I don’t think that they’ve reached that stage yet. The Braves are going to have to look elsewhere for relievers. There are two ways to go about this:
- Spend money and/or talent to bring in an elite reliever, like Wagner as a free agent.
- Bring in a bunch of guys with something to prove and let them fight it out.
Of course, with the Braves’ bullpen, I don’t think that just one reliever can do it. I’d like to get Wagner, but I don’t see it happening. Importing someone like Todd Jones (as a free agent) or Danys Baez (in trade) would be a mistake. The Braves have traded for three Other People’s Closers in the last two seasons. These three are the first three players discussed above. That just doesn’t work. Jones and Baez are exactly the same sort of pitcher as Kolb, Reitsma, and Farnsworth — good relievers who had big years after stumbling into closer situations — and are likely to decline. I’ll suggest Trevor Hoffman, a great reliever, but he’s going to be 38 years old and throws in the eighties now; how much is left in that tank? None of the other top guys is supposed to be on the market.
So you can bring in lots of guys and hope some catch fire. That might work to bring in bullpen depth, but I think you need someone at the top of the pen. Can you bridge the gap? Bring in a top setup man, someone who doesn’t make closer money yet, and give him the chance. I’ve seen Scot Shields mentioned. I don’t know that the Angels would do that, but that’s the idea.
Actually, I have no idea what the Braves will do. I expect at least one trade for a reliever (because they’ve done that before each of the last three seasons) but beyond that? Who knows. I’m actually at the stage where I’d like them to just have open tryouts among everybody in the system and put the two guys who throw the hardest in there and see what happens. ‘Cause what we’re doing isn’t working.
If I can dream out loud for a minute: I’d love to see the Braves sign Farnsworth and trade for someone who has been a successful closer, such as Hoffman. Then announce at spring training that the two will COMPETE for the job. Vary public, very up front.
It’s my hope that Farnsworth would thrive under that condition, but I’m also a fan of put up or shut up.
It’s a long time until spring.
Trade chit? Is that an Alabama thing?
This is the most confusing part of the offseason plans. I suspect they’ll do what they do every year — sign one fairly big name and bring in a lot of no-names. But I think Reitsma is going to be too expensive for the Braves to keep.
Off Topic: Was Mabry safe at first?
no
What could Davies fetch in trade value? My inside source suggests that he could be on the block for off-field reasons.
By the way, this is the same guy who told me beforehand that Capellan would get traded, and although none of the rest of us woulda thunk it, he was right.
Yeah, but look who he was traded for. We would have been better off releasing him.
Davies is 21 years old with big-league experience as a starter. He’d probably fetch something nice. More than Capellan, definately. Cincinatti could use him, and they have four outfielders.
Off-topic: This has to be some of the most boring playoff baseball I’ve witnessed in years. I predict that there are 20 total runs scored in the World Series.
What are you talking about? The Angels-White Sox series was just nuts. That was one of the crazier series I’ve ever seen.
For the World Series, the White Sox pitching looks scary. So does the Astros’. I love 1-0, 2-1 games if they’re well pitched, and with Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt-Contreras-Buherle-Garland-Garcia, it will be darned near impossible to not have well-pitched games. This will be the most excited I’ve been about a world series since the Braves were last there. I hate watching teams like the Yankersox with poor pitching and ugly slugfests. This Series will be tight.
Oh, and Brandon Backe is totally wins the “one of these things is not like the others” award. His start will probably be the key to the whole series. He did just get 7 Ks in 5.2 innings against the Cards.
From what I saw of Davies most of this year, I would be willing to deal him but he is 21 so there’s room for improvement.
Still, with the Jones boiys and Smoltz only aging, I think we need to bring several new pitchers and try and win now.
By the way, I find something VERY interesting about this year’s likely world series match-up of the Astros & White Sox.
What do they have in common? TREMENDOUS starting pitching, deep bullpens, timely hitting but overall, below average offenses.
So, you think back to the Braves teams of the 1990’s, which bnoth of these teams are similar to. The main differences I see if that I like the Sox (in particular) bullpen better then our pens and the starters for Houston and Chicago are POWER PITCHERS. That & Cox’s awful October mabaging had a lot to do with little post seaosn success.
This further convinces me that the Braves may not need to spend ANY MONEY on the offense this winter and in fact, might as well cut costs…let Furcal leave, trade Estrada and LaRoche, move Chipper or Marte to first, play the other at third, play Betemit at short and Francouer & Langerhans in the outfield.
Since we will save a bunch of money (on car insurance) by losing LaRoche, Estrada and Furcal (and only Furcal is the one you’d rather not lose) there’s absolutely NO REASON the Braves can’t bring in a prime time lefthanded starter ansd prime time closer. If you spend money on TWO PIECES this winter, a stud starter and a stud reliever; then trade for at least one more really good but cheap-o reliever.
By the way, spoke to my dad earlier asnd he likes to read the New York Times Online…it appears the Yankees have interest in Farnsworth. My preference is to keep Kyle at a lower cost and have him bet the set up guy for a big closer but it if the Yankees come in, it will inevitably drive the price up.
LaRoche doesn’t make any money. He’s pre-arbitration and still will be. There’s absolutely no savings there, because even a rookie will cost the same.
Cox’s awful October strategizing is eerily similar to Ozzie Guillen’s awful October strategizing. What’s saved him this postseason is:
1) Managing in the AL where there are fewer chances to screw up.
2) Having all of his starters pitch the complete game so he doesn’t have to make so many tough decisions.
Still, Guillen leaves a lot of outs on the field with those bunts and failed steals. It’s a tribute to how powerful and dangerous his team is that they’re still going to the World Series.
King Kaufman hasa decent rant about “smallball” the way the White Sox play it, and how good they could be without it. Even with all the outs they give away with bunts and whatnot, they were still fourth in the league in homers and had a .322 OBP. They’re also fourth-worst in the league in steal %, but second in steal attempts. Guillen’s horrible at in-game strategy, like Cox on downers, but his team is loaded.
Looking at people like Cox and Guillen, I think there should be a new position on the team, a “strategist”, who can advise the manager on tactical maneuvers. Cox, who’s a great manager in other respects, and Guillen, who looks like he’s going to be a great manager in other respects, could just completely dominate with some decent tactics.
In comparison to last year, JoeyT, I think this year’s playoffs are a snoozefest. But everything is relative. I guess I just like offensive-oriented games more than pitcher’s duels and I’m not getting it this year.
They haven’t particularly grabbed me, because I don’t have any emotional investment in these series. I admit it, I miss the Red Sox/Yankees stuff of the last two years. Sure, it was overblown, but it gave me something to latch onto.
I’m pretty ambivalent about the Cards and Astros — I don’t hate or like either team, like and dislike elements of both.
I haven’t worked out my feelings about the White Sox. I pretty much despise Ozzie Guillen, and frankly 86 years isn’t enough punishment for throwing the World Series and they need an even 100. But most of the White Sox played in Birmingham and so they’re kind of hometown boys. If Frank Thomas — a favorite of mine from long back even if he did play at Auburn — were playing, I’d probably have a rooting interest. I like the ornery guys.
That’s funny about the Barons, because I can’t ever imagine myself having any rooting interest in the Devil Rays.
And you’re not unusual, Jenny. Most of my friends walk away from the action if there’s little chance of scoring.
Alex R, I actually think the White Sox is a very good offensive team, very good starting pitching, and an unstable bullpen. The Astros, on the other hand, is the reason why I think the Braves must get another front line starting pitcher. They have an awesome front three and a Brad Lidge. Their remaining bullpen comprises of rookies and Russ Springer. A part of me actually wants the Astros to win the whole thing because Clemens and Pettite may retire sooner by delivering a World Series title to Houston.
The Astros lineup is far worse than the Braves’ lineup in the early 90s, but they have a nice home park which they can hit all those cheap homeruns to beat the good teams.
Nobody should close the book on Farnsworth after one bad game. He looked like Smoltz out there with that fastball-slider going during the regular season.
Can anybody tell me what Bobby sees in Joey Devine? Granted, Bobby has more baseball knowlege in his pinky finger than all of us do put together, but I just don’t see it. I’m not saying I don’t trust him, I just don’t get why Devine is supposed to be the savior of the bullpen.
On a side note. I live in the same Alabama community as former brave Chris Hammond (lefty set-up man, 0.95 ERA a couple of years ago) and rumor has it that he would have been willing to play for the braves for far less than he recived in San Diego. I think his asking price was 750k, if I am not mistaken. Do any of you insiders know why the Braves didn’t offer him a contract last off-season?
Devine also has a fastball slider combo. He was hurt when he allowed the two grand slams, and the homerun allowed to Burke was another Minute Maid Park cheap shot. I don’t think he is a savior, but he should be as good a prospect as Boyer.
I agree with you on Farnsworth. Those two homeruns in Game 4 were cheap shots as well. I think we are concerned about his price more than his ability.
Hammond…it’s like Julio…just don’t know if he has anything left, but I guess he is worth a try…
I’m guessing that much of ATL’s bullpen decisions will be based on which way they go with Farnsworth. To be perfectly honest, we may not be able to do better than him. He may be our Armando Benitez–a save machine in the regular season, afraid of his own shadow in a big spot. But, as someone mentioned above, that slider certainly had its moments this year.
For me, it’s a little tough to get into this pair of LCS with neither the Braves nor a NYC-based team. There’s just very little spice. It reminds me a little of 2002 (SF/Stl, Ana/Min). I’m watching, but not exactly jumping up and down–and kinda not caring.
I guess that I’m rooting for CWS & Houston. Why? I like Ozzie ever since he got that hit off Benitez in the 1999 NLCS–one of the least-discussed clutch hits in Atlanta history. I also find the animus to his “overmanaging” highly amusing. I hate to break the news to people, but it seems to be working.
For some reason, I’ve become a bit of a Cardinal-hater, mainly because I have trouble with LaRussa & find him distasteful. He just strikes me as a bad loser. The whining about Bobby this year, I thought, was especially lame.
And when the Cardinals get bounced (any day now), will the Cardinals replace the Braves as the new media whipping boys? Discuss…
I have no ill will toward Anaheim–I actually respect them–but they won recently. As for Houston, I grew up in Columbus, Ga., then a Double-A town for the Astros, so I always kinda rooted for the 1970s-80s era teams. (JR Richard was a fave.) This bunch does little for me (and losing to them the past two years doesn’t help), although I gotta admit that I like Lidge & Oswalt. (But can they please get a decent uniform?)
I think a Houston-White Sox series will be kinda like the Baltimore-Philadelphia series in 1983–very little juice. Hopefully, it’ll have some good baseball, but mentally I’m all about SEC football right now. Go Dogs.
I sponsored two pages this year: Kolb and Estrada. From now on I will only sponsor past team pages and Phillies pages on B-R. Forman is a Phillies season-ticket holder, so he probably did something to those pages, blame him. To Braves fans everywhere, I apologize and will do my best not to jinx any future Braves players.
Off the topic, but just saw this post. Pendleton interviewing for Dodgers job.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=citadel-2_453185_248&prov=citadel&type=lgns
Speaking of sponsoring Baseball Reference pages (I sponsor Bob Horner’s by the way), the one for Francisco Cabrera is kind of funny.
I honestly think there is almost no chance of DePodesta hiring Pendleton. It looks like they’re just interviewing anyone who might possibly be a reasonable candidate and hoping one clicks.
I hate to sound cynical, but Pendleton may have been asked to interview because he’s a minority candidate. A recent article in the New York Times talks about how many such candidates have been passed over.
I never thought trading Capellan for Kolb was a good idea. Not at the time, and definitely not after enduring his presence on the team for a season. I wasn’t saying that I thought trading Davies was a good idea, either. But I was saying that it is a real possibility that he will be traded. I for one agree with the idea that the team should get as much pitching as possible and let the bats fill themselves in, rather than get the lineup and let the pitching spots fill themselves in. If there is a choice between getting more batting studs vs. more pitching studs, I vote pitching.
Last year Capellan was a prospect who nobody thought would be traded, and then he was. Davies is one who on the surface does not seem like someone JS would trade, similar to Capellan. But the disruptive off-field/attitude issues suggest otherwise. Now these are things that you and I, the outsiders looking in, wouldn’t have any clue about.
This begs the question, how much of a disruption is too much? I think the whole John Rocker experience was a lesson that the Braves suits won’t forget for a long time. What about Furcal? I wonder if his past behavior is still viewed as a disruption, and if so, how much of that will factor into decisions surrounding him this off-season. I’d love to be a fly on the wall in JS’s office! 🙂
Re: the NYT article – Frank Robinson’s complaints just don’t resonate with me. The problem is not that the Tigers wanted to hire Jim Leyland, the problem is that because of Selig’s silly rule they are forced to interview someone they probably won’t hire. I’m in favor of more minorities managing and working in front offices, but mandatory interviews isn’t the way to go. I suppose some might point to the NFL as an example of the “success” of mandatory minority interviewing, but I would argue that Marvin Lewis, Romeo Crennel, and Lovie Smith all got their jobs primarily because of their impressive performance records and would have been interviewed no matter what color their skin was.
Well, the other clubs see how much the White Sox have struggled since hiring Guillen, so they’re reluctant to risk hiring a non-white guy.
Nate – what specifically have you heard about Davies?
In my mind, the bad thing about trading for Dan Kolb was not giving up Cappy. He played pretty mediocre in Nashville this year and his 2004 really was a product of being a little older than everyone else in A and AA. When he got to Richmond he looked about average. With his repeat of AAA this year (I know it’s the PCL and I don’t know the league factor vs. the Int’l) his K-rate stayed about the same, though his walks went up a bit. He just wasn’t that great and certainly was worth moving while his price was high. Had Kolb’s performance mirrored his previous two seasons, it would have been a very good deal. The big surprise was how bad Kolb was. I don’t think anyone could have seen how bad he would be. He walked more guys by mid-May than he did the previous season.
The real problem was that acquiring Kolb was all the Braves did. If he failed, the Braves didn’t really have much to fall back on. And he was awful. Our bullpen was so bad Tom Martin was on the opening day roster.
Joey, do you think Guillen was hired because they were forced to interview him and he wowed them in the room, or because he was a charismatic guy who they would have interviewed anyway?
MLB is a little different than the NFL because there is no real equivalent to the defensive/offensive coordinator roles. I guess pitching coach is probably the closest thing. Then again, the NFL doesn’t have a real minor league system, the NCAA notwithstanding.
With Guillen, Randolph, and Robinson all doing reasonably well, more and more MLB jobs will go to minorities. Eventually, we’ll run out of Buck Showalters, Jim Leylands, Lou Piniellas, and Jack McKeons, and teams will have to look elsewhere for managerial candidates.
But will they ever run out of Buddy Bells?
what about jorge sosa as a closer? good fastball, nasty slider… just needs to work on his walk-rate.
Well I just saw a headine that has now passed the Kolb trade as the “Worst Idea of the Year.”
They are going to make a Rocky 6!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051017/en_nm/stallone_dc
Is Jay Powell done? I havent heard anything about him or his surgery, Is there any possibility of him ever pitching again? If so, when, and will he come back to AA or AAA with the Braves?
Is Jay Powell done? I
I think he was done before he started.
In any event, I assume he would be a minor league free agent. I believe he only had a minor league deal with the team, and the Braves have no rights to him beyond this season.
I forgot to at the 😉 after my first line my previous post to indicate I was joking.
Just my 2 cents worth regarding the article in the NY Times. I’m not real sure why Frank Robinson is so concerned about not giving new guys chances to manage(My opinon is that it’s the “good ole boy” network–this includes Frank–not anything else that makes it hard for new guys to break into the managerial ranks). Would Frank be willing to give up his job to one of these new guys? If not, he’s more of a hypocrite than Dave Dombrowski and the others. He’s managed 4 teams(couting Natspos as one)and never won a pennant yet continues to get jobs. His career win/loss is 994-1085(.478)and he’s finished 4th or lower more often than 3rd or higher. He’s had 4 years/4 years/4 years and 11 years between his gigs also which makes the 6 years for Jim Leyland not seem so long.
Braves general manager John Schuerholz is working on striking a deal that would bring Furcal back. The cost will likely be in the neighborhood of $9-10 million per season. With this in mind, the club might have to move Johnny Estrada, Marcus Giles, Horacio Ramirez or Jorge Sosa, all of whom are expected to receive large raises as arbitration-eligible players.
Found this on the Braves website. I wonder how true it is though.
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051015&content_id=1250726&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
In any event, long-term they are going to lose either Giles or Furcal; they clearly can’t keep both. The question is is it easier to replace a shortstop/leadoff hitter rather than a second baseman with pop. My guess is it would be harder to replace Furcal (assuming he plays at the level he played at defensively this year and becomes more consistent offensively–admittedly some possibly dubious assumptions). On the other hand, they do have shortstop prospects in the minors. I’m not a huge Furcal fan but at least Giles has some real trade value.
1. Giles is the better player.
2. Furcal will be overpaid for a talent that doesn’t have a lot of real-world value (stolen bases).
3. Giles’ doubles and on-base percentage more than make up for the stolen bases, and he’s a good baserunner anyway.
4. Giles has never, to my knowledge, been arrested.
I think my opinion is pretty evident. If you can re-sign Furcal by dealing the other three, fine.
Oh, and Giles’ probable replacement (Orr) is a significantly worse player than Furcal’s probable replacement (Betemit).
Giles’ offensive numbers are certainly better. Furcal’s stolen bases are gravy–it’s the defense I’ll miss if he leaves.
The handful of times I saw Betemit play short this year, I got visions of Melvin Mora in 2000 for the Mets. He looked awkward, like he didn’t wanna be there.
And, yes, Orr is a Lockhart-like statue.
someone asked if powell is done, but my question is is buddy hernandez done? i never could find anything about what actually happened to him.
what will BJ Ryan be looking at contract wise for next year?