Player Name (2004 salary)

Paul Byrd ($7,000,000)
Russ Ortiz ($6,200,000)
J.D. Drew ($4,200,000)
Antonio Alfonseca ($1,350,000)
Jaret Wright ($850,000)
Julio Franco ($750,000)

Last season, the Braves had four major free agents — well, three major free agents and Vinny — and didn’t make a serious effort to re-sign any of them. This season, the Braves find themselve with five major contributors, plus platoon player Franco (who was also a free agent last season but re-signed), free agents. But the situation has changes, as they aren’t expected to cut any more payroll, and they should make efforts to re-sign some of them.

Drew was the Braves’ best hitter this year, finding his health and having a career year in Atlanta. And it’s his home state. Some players would take less to stay at home where they’ve found success. These players do not have Scott Boras as an agent. Drew will want an eight-figure salary and a long-term contract, one I find it unlikely that the Braves would give. The question becomes if someone will sign Drew to such a deal. There’s still the question of his health, which might drive the price down. But the market is thin in outfielders this year, and it seems likely to me that someone will indeed give Drew a long-term deal for more than $10 million a season. And that it won’t be the Braves. They’ll make an effort, but will be outbid.

Jaret Wright had a remarkable comeback year with the Braves. I can’t imagine, however, that teams would be too eager to lock him up. He’s only done it once, of course. I also think that losing two games in the NLDS will be held against him. (That isn’t really fair, because anybody can have two bad games in a row, especially against the Astros’ offense, but it will be perceived as some massive failure.) There is the suspicion that he’s a creation of Leo Mazzone and will fail elsewhere. It may be a suspicion that he himself holds. I am guessing that he’ll get a contract more in line with what Paul Byrd got two years ago or John Thomson last year, probably for a little more money but for two, or no more than three, years. I think he’s the most likely free agent, after Julio, to stay in Atlanta.

I can’t imagine Russ Ortiz will be back in Atlanta next season. He pitched poorly down the stretch, got smashed in his postseason start, and frankly makes too much money for what he is — a middle of the rotation starter. The Braves were able to take him on because his price was fixed. But he’s going to make more money in the open market because of his impressive won/lost records — 15-9 this season, 36-16 as a Brave, 103-60 for his career — which make him look like the ace he isn’t. The Braves may bid for him, but I assume someone like the Dodgers will give him more money. He could do well in Dodger Stadium.

Paul Byrd, everyone seems convinced, will be back in Atlanta only if he takes far less money and a swingman role. Byrd was decent for the Braves this season, and gave them a needed shot in the arm in the middle of the season. But he just got paid $10 million over the last two seasons to make 19 starts, and his average start (six innings, three runs) was exceedingly average. That has value, but you aren’t going to pay $5 million a season for it. If he’s willing to take less money and a reduced role, he can be valuable.

Antonio Alfonseca was the Braves’ best reliever this season other than Smoltz — and even against Smoltz he has an argument. The major numbers are pretty impressive — 6-4, 13 holds, only one blown save, a 2.57 ERA. He was paid a relatively small sum for this. There are some troubling numbers if you look below the surface, in particular a 5.5 K/9 ratio. But his strikeout rates were never all that impressive, even when he was pitching well. The difference between good Base12 and bad Base12 has usually been the extra-base hits; this year he allowed a career-low .349 slugging percentage. He was somewhat lucky on balls in play, and he won’t put up a 2.57 ERA again, but he can be a valuable reliever as long as he isn’t giving up longballs. Will it be in Atlanta? Maybe. It depends on the market for relievers. Alfonseca’s ERA doesn’t jump out at you like, say, Chris Hammond’s did a couple of years ago. If he is back, he’ll either get a raise or a two-year contract.

Julio Franco has been on a series of one-year contracts since the Braves salvaged him from the Mexican League in 2001. I don’t see any reason that will change. The Braves will probably hand him an arbitration offer, he’ll accept, then they’ll put together a contract sometime in January. He’ll platoon with LaRoche again next year. He’s 43 hits from 2500.

Next time, the arbitration cases. Marcus Giles is going to make a lot more money next year, something to consider when you start thinking about bringing these free agents back. And will they have the audacity to non-tender Chr*s R**tsm*? I hope so.