Offense in the Playoffs? Roger that.
We have not yet vanquished the Phillies, nor even made the playoffs at all yet. But with Roger screaming about offensive woes, I decided to take a look at one of the oldest baseball controversies. Does pitching win playoff games, or does the ability to hit good pitching?
One of the things that makes this an evergreen topic is the fact that it is as unresolvable, ultimately, as the economics question: what’s more important/ Supply or demand? Good pitching beats good hitting, and astonishingly, good hitting beats good pitching. But I’ve got a database, a computer, and some statistical skills, so I’m not going to let a little thing like futility stop me.
First, the data. I am going to look at this on an individual playoff game level. I took every playoff game from 2000-2025, less 2020, as my sample: that’s 892 playoff games. I created a model that estimated the probability that the team whose name comes first in alphabetical order wins the game. That model is:
Pr(Alpha1 team wins) = f(alpha1_home,alpha1_potential_series_win,alpha1_potential_series elimination,alpha1_offense,alpha1_defense,alpha2_offense, alpha2_defense)
For the offensive and defensive inputs, I used normalized runs scored and runs allowed, normalized for that season. Thus, for example, the 2023 Braves scored 947 runs and gave up 716. The mean and standard deviation across all teams for 2023 was 747.7 runs scored (and allowed) with standard deviations of 82.8 for runs scored and 82.1 for runs allowed. So the Braves offense and defense was rated as (947-747.7)/82.8 and -(716-747.7)/82.1. Note that I switched the sign of defense so that positive numbers meant both above-average offense and above-average defense. This is purely a labeling convenience and doesn’t affect the model at all.
Running the standard model (a so-called logit model), we get the following results:
| coef | std err | z | P>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| const | -0.6435 | 0.231 | -2.788 | 0.005 | -1.096 | -0.191 |
| first_home | 0.3510 | 0.136 | 2.583 | 0.010 | 0.085 | 0.617 |
| pot_first_clinch | 0.2051 | 0.168 | 1.220 | 0.222 | -0.124 | 0.534 |
| pot_first_elim | -0.1680 | 0.166 | -1.014 | 0.311 | -0.493 | 0.157 |
| first_runs_scored | 0.1759 | 0.089 | 1.983 | 0.047 | 0.002 | 0.350 |
| first_runs_allowed | 0.1904 | 0.116 | 1.644 | 0.100 | -0.037 | 0.417 |
| last_runs_scored | 0.0600 | 0.094 | 0.635 | 0.525 | -0.125 | 0.245 |
| last_runs_allowed | 0.1242 | 0.136 | 0.916 | 0.360 | -0.142 | 0.390 |
Just a quick lesson in applying these results. Take Game 2 between Atlanta and Philadelphia on October 9,2023. First, you take the crossproduct of the data and the coefficients:
logit = -.6435 + 0.3510(1) + 0.2051(0) -0.1680(0) + 0.1759(2.4) + 0.1904(.386) + 0.06(.582) + 0.1242(.594) = 0.312
Now, to get the probability, you take 1/(1+exp(-.312)) or just over 57%. And the Braves won that game 5-4.
But there is something strange about this model. The coefficients on the other team’s office and defense should be negative, not positive. If you were take this model seriously, it would mean that a better opponent’s offense would increase your chances of winning a game, although the effects are small, though the effect for the other team’s pitching (0.1242) isn’t that small. I think I know what the problem is, though… more tomorrow.
9/11
Everyone else is talking about 9/11. And it’s important. My brand of goofy humor means that I would have to awkwardly transition to discuss it seriously. So remember the day, and read everyone else about it. Just didn’t want you to think I’d forgotten. I was in a meeting on 9/6 with three people who lost their lives 5 days later. I won’t be forgetting Chuck, Mike, or Jim… ever.
Lane Thomas
He is, I suspect, done for the season with a batting cage intercostal strain injury. I went to summer camp on the intercostal waterway in 1968, but I don’t think it kept me from any camp activities. Thomas, as expected, has not provided anything that Eli White wouldn’t have produced had he remained. However, Thomas’ absence allowed the Braves to bring up speedster DaShawn Keirsey Jr., filling a gap that Jorge Mateo left. Keirsey should prove helpful in the playoffs.
The Game
Matt Olson. Remember him? He dumped an oppo wall-scraper off Aaron Nola to make it 1-0 in the first. One thing about this season is that there is no period at which everyone has been hot at the same time. Just as Riley and Murphy began to come around, Olson went into a funk. There are still two weeks to get everyone clicking at the same time. My strategy is to hope that happens. (See? Hope is a strategy.)
If I were to hope that 1 run would hold up, well, it won’t, even with Chris Sale on the mound. Sale had an episode™ in the top of the 2nd, culminating in a two-out bases-clearing double to 9th-place hitter Derek Hill.
The next five innings saw the Braves get lots of chances and the Phillies get none. But none of those Braves’ chances panned out. (I trust I don’t need to bore everyone with tales of frustration. But the Braves were making contact, just not effective contact.) Timothy Miller’s 9/11 God Bless America and the extra rest from the stretch got Austin Riley to hit a homer to pull it to 3-2. Yaz followed with a single on a long at bat. A long Murphy flyout ended the night for Nola. It’s a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world, except for Nola. José Alvarado struck out Baldwin and Acuña, though, doing what Nola wasn’t able to do: strike out guys with men on base.
Dylan Lee worked a quick 8th but was brought back out for the 9th and Bryce Harper led off with a double. A flyout by Arraez led to an entrance by Mederos the Magnificent. A base-running blunder by Harper and a strikout of Stott brought us to the bottom of the 9th.
Mattingly elected not to use his closer: Jhoan Duran. He had been used the last two days and it was no más. He was clearly much less hungry than the wolf. Instead, Donnie Baseball went with Jonathan Bowlan, who even beyond his very suspicious first name, has had some problems lately. But he struck out Riley to start the inning. Yaz then singled, which meant that Atlanta had at least one baserunner in every inning. Keirsey came in to run for Yaz. Murphy then singled up the middle and Keirsey used his speed, scoring from first when the ball was bobbled in the outfield, tieing it up. Ha-Seong Kim ran for Murphy at second. Bowlan then hit Baldwin to bring up RAJ. A flyout brought up Olson who hit a hard liner up the middle to no effect. Free baseball.
Iggy took the 10th. Justin Crawford brought in the Manfred Man on the first pitch. But no further damage, although Brandon Marsh hit a slightly scary drive to the base of the wall in right.
The bottom of the 10th was taken by Chase Shugart. Harris got the Manfred Man to third on the first pitch. Brewer Hicklen, running for Olson, came home on a VERY shallow sac fly by Dubón. Credit Walt Weiss with the decision to pinch-run for Olson.
Didier Fuentes got the bump for the 11th. Trea Turner fouled out to third on the first pitch. The decision to remove Olson bit back when Dominic Smith couldn’t quite field a smash from Harper. An Arraez single brought home the Manfred Man. A Bohm strikeout and Stott walk loaded the bases for Crawford. No problem.
Shugart got the first batter of the 11th. After Riley grounded out, we got ex-Met Brooks Raley facing ex-Met Dom Smith. Smith popped out on the first pitch, and it was down to Ha-Seong Kim. What happened? What do you think? (Everyone but ONIO, anyway.) A single brought in Ozzie and we were tied again, and we had achieved the Roger minimum: 5 runs. A Drake Baldwin double scored Kim from first. Easy Peasy, right Roger?
Ain’t nothing as sweet as beating both the Phaillies and Don Mattingly. Go Braves!
JC’d – SUCK IT PHILLIES!!!!!!
(Added some exclamation points this time)
That was a backbreaking loss for Philly. Kim has now played a major part in 3 wins. Not such a bad decision to keep him after all.
He’s actually hitting .290 since coming back from injury, though almost all singles.
What a tremendous game!
Luzardo hurt. Bullpen game tomorrow for the Phillies.
Watching the Phillies postgame… Ricky Bottalico is a hard-ass.
Appreciate the Kinks reference. I’m glad I’m a man and so’s Nola.
Appreciate the Duran Duran reference. Jhoans parents are cool people.
Quite a game tonight.
Nothing better than a win like that & who would ever imagine seeing H.S. Kim achieving hero status like that once again? During his last AB, I got a chuckle hearing Ben Ingram say: “Kim’s gotta be the league’s most confident .126 hitter.”
And nice to see Dylan Lee seeming to return to form — he got some big outs tonight. (Luis Arraez really is a pain in the neck.)
Speaking of The Kinks…
I don’t know where to find it but Ben Ingrams calls in the 11th were magnificent.
JonathanF, thanks for the shoutout but I do not think two solo HRs and 4 runs from the 9th on is really good offense. But, yes, it’s been a while since the Braves scored 5 or 6 so that was good. And beating the Phillies is good. I wish we had not looked so bad against the Rays. I like your thinking on the model and maybe the Braves have been smoke and mirrors but the pitching has been really good and the hitting really bad. I see the Braves hitting balls “hard” only to make outs. Maybe “hard contact” is not the panacea and “hitting them where they ain’t” is still the best.
Again, I think the Braves need to make adjustments for each pitcher. What that game last night showed is that speed and singles are as important as HRs. And, yes, I watched the whole game – rain delay and all.
The team’s hitting certainly doesn’t feel like it’s been very good, but they’re 8th in MLB in runs/game (and 2nd in fewest runs allowed/game).
As for it being a while since the team scored 5 or 6, in a stretch through last Sunday, the team scored 5 or more runs in 4 out of 5 games.
I’ll take HR over speed and singles, even if speed was crucial last night. I still don’t see how Hicklen scored on the flyout in the 10th.
First, jamesd, you just have to accept that when Roger argues long enough for something, he gets it. He isn’t like you and me. I completely agree on Hicklen’s dash last night. According to Savant https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard Hicklen is the 52nd fastest guy in baseball (though he’s essentially tied with a bunch of other people and is somewhere in the mid-40s. I would point out, however, on that same table, Eli White is 3rd and Jorge Mateo is 4th.
According to https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2026&minThrows=50&pos=arm_of&team=143 Crawford has a pretty weak arm, with his strongest throw of the season less than the league average throw. If you look at https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2026&minThrows=50&pos=arm_of&team=143 Crawford’s throw appears to be his third-best of the year, at just over 85mph.
Statcast had the catch at 254 feet from home plate.
A ball travelling at 85 mph goes 125 feet per second or 2 seconds from 254 feet. Give Crawford a full second to make the throw. That’s three seconds. Now of course it slows down the whole way, and slows down even more on its one bounce. But even averaging 70 mph it seems like it ought to beat Hicklen home. From a standing start it has to be at least 4 seconds for Hicklen to get home.
Someone seeking to get mathier might refer to this: https://physics.csuchico.edu/baseball/Pubs/drag.pdf
On June 7, we were 45-21 and had scored 344 runs (5.2 runs per game, good for third in MLB and 7 runs less than the best team). As of today, we are 87-61 and we’ve scored 677 runs. Since that hot start, we are 42-40, and we’ve scored 333 runs (4.1 runs per game) in about a half season of work. We’ve continued to pitch well, but our offense has been near the bottom of the league since then. For comparison, in 2025, scoring 4.1 runs per game for the full season would’ve been good for 27th in MLB, just ahead of the KC Royals. Yes, selecting arbitrary end-points is always dicey, but we’re looking at a solid half-season of play since a hot offensive start. We could always revert to that hot play or anywhere in between, but Roger’s complaints aren’t just based on a feeling. It’s a full half-season of bad offensive baseball.
Thank you, that’s really well explained. It also helped me figure out something that had been bugging me about BRef’s playoff odds. BRef (and ESPN, though I don’t know if they use the same formula) shows teams’ probabilities of winning the division, making the postseason, winning the division series, LCS, & World Series. Both have consistently shown the Phillies as having a lower % chance of winning the division than the Braves but a higher % chance of winning the division series, NLCS, and World Series. That’s because they think the Phillies are actually a better team than the Braves and so a better bet for the future even if their path is a little more difficult (no bye, or slightly more difficult wild card opponent) because of their worse current record. I had guessed they did this by using preseason projections and/or some sum of presumed individual ability as part of their evaluation of how good a team is, but it turns out that at least BRef uses a team’s last 100 games rather than the full season. I assume this is why it thinks the Yankees have a 50% chance of making the WS and the Rays only 7% even though the Rays have the better record and a better chance of getting a first-round bye.
I’m writing this now because I doubt it’ll be true much longer, but even with his sub-putrid start, Kim for the season in 28 PA with RISP is batting .273 with a .429 OBP. 6 hits, 5 walks, 1 HBP, and 9 RBI. It feels wrong to call a .135/.217/.144 hitter clutch, but he certainly has been clutch relative to his overall performance.
On an unrelated note, watching last night’s press conference I decided that if Olson had a different hairstyle he would look like Ross from Friends.
Have an inning, boys.
Hot dang, this is fun
Oh yeah…
Recapped