Shall I compare that to a summer’s day?
Spencer still isn’t right. His stuff isn’t back, as he freely admits. “Obviously, my stuff’s not exactly the same as it has been in years past,” he told David O’Brien. “I think the last two starts it’s actually been a lot better, especially tonight.”
The latter is to be hoped; the former is undeniable. O’Brien notes that the offense has picked up lately, just as the pitching has collapsed, and isn’t that always the way?
My wife and I are up in the Northeast this week, visiting my parents; I’m working remotely and she’s just breathing in the air and enjoying herself. Two nights ago she saw several shooting stars; there was supposed to be a meteor shower last night, but it was too hazy to see. Some old, old family friends are coming over for dinner, and maybe it’ll clear up and we can see some meteors in the sky, too.
There is much that is joyous and miraculous in the world, though precious little of it happens to have an uppercase A on its cap at the moment. Better that than the exact opposite!
We might be about to get Jared Shuster back.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/white-sox-designate-jared-shuster-for-assignment.html
I think I’ll pass.
Let’s sign Schuster, shut down Strider and have a full Zombie rotation. That #1 pick’s not gonna land itself
I can’t tell if I’m some sort of Spencer Strider hater, but am I missing why he’s seen as this surefire ace? He only pitched one full season in college. He pitched his freshman year, went down his sophomore year for TJ, made 4 starts his junior year, then got drafted. That was his college success. Smart kid to secure the bag. In his first professional season, he lit up A and A+ in 7 starts, but then struggled at AA (4.71 ERA in 14 starts), then gets called up to Atlanta after one scoreless inning in AAA.
He does indeed pitch incredibly well in his rookie season (2.67 ERA in 31 games, 20 starts), but it was only 131 IP. The next year, his breakout year, he pitched 186.1 IP and leads the league in wins and strikeouts, albeit with a 3.86 ERA. Yes, that’s an excellent season for a young pitcher. But then the next year, elbow surgery, and this year appears to be something that could be considered a lost season.
I just don’t see what he’s done in his amateur and professional career that screams, “THIS is the pitcher we want to lock up!” And I felt like from his rookie season, all of the “OMG LOOK HOW BIG HIS QUADS ARE” and “Oh, did you know that he’s vegan?” stuff didn’t tell me at all if this guy could consistently pitch 175 IP for the next decade. And everything since then suggests, no, he can’t.
In fairness, I’m not sure that it’s possible to assume any pitcher could consistently pitch 175 IP for the next decade.
Totally agree, Strider’s ERA+ last year was 113 and with his rough work this year, his career ERA+ is 114. He’s thrown a little over 400 innings in 2022, 2023, and 2025. I still like him to improve – like Michael Harris II, I believe in his makeup and his work ethic. But boy, I am less and less confident in his team to keep him healthy and effective.
Well, we wouldn’t want it and may very well not emotionally survive it, but I could see Bryce Elder staying healthy for 175 IP a year for a while. Sigh.
It would probably help if someone competent were to break down what Strider’s projected arb salaries were going to look like over the next 3 years, but I will try:
2025, Arb-1: He’s making $4M and he would probably be looking at something like that this year in arb?
2026, Arb-2: $20M and he’s probably looking at, what, $10M next year? $15M?
2027, Arb-3: $22M. Your guess is as good as mine to predict the future. But probably $22M or less. Max Fried, for example, got $13.5M in 2023 and $15M in 2024. Strider probably doesn’t clear that.
2028, FA: $22M. Ok, this is, in theory, is where you’re getting your savings, right? Well, you’ve already paid him $20M in 2026 when he probably only made $10M in arbitration. And you probably didn’t under-pay him in 2027. So how much could you possibly be saving here to justify the two previous years?
2029, club option: $22M. Sure, this is where the top of Strider’s potential becomes a steal. If literally everything goes right for Strider, he would have been a $30M pitcher you’re getting for $22M. And all you had to do was wait 6 years to achieve this tremendous savings!
Strider was smart to get drafted when he did. He was drafted strictly based on potential, certainly not on results. And then he got AA, who loves seeing his name in press releases, to give him $100M based on his potential, certainly not on results. Strider knows how to secure the bag.
What are the issues with how the team has handled Strider’s health? Pitching him with an oblique injury in the playoffs was dumb, but besides that, the bone spur that tore his elbow a second time seems like horrible luck more than anything.
Pitchers break down often and his velocity may never be back after a second major elbow surgery. I have a lot of issues with this front office, but how they’ve handled Strider isn’t of them.
You want to lock Strider up because a $75 million dollar extension for someone who was a top five pitcher in the sport in 2023 is well worth the risk. I’d much rather be in this position than Arizona with Burnes or New York with Cole.
Rob, I’d also add Jhancarlos Lara to the list, since it looks like the Braves are trying to make him a starter again.
https://x.com/PastTheEyeTest/status/1955626241710862813
I don’t like this at all. He already demonstrated he could be really effective in relief, has already struggled as a starter, and God knows the major league team needs the bullpen help next year.
I would love to hear the Braves’ philosophy on when exactly they think that a pitcher has exhausted his potential as a starting pitcher. Lara could be a reliever in Atlanta tomorrow. Why make him sit in this glut of starting pitcher candidates? And when would they say, screw it, this is a potential $16M per year asset (the going rate for an elite reliever) that we can use right now for free?
With that said, I’m overall optimistic about the pitching in the high minors plus the collection of SP names at the ML level. We have a lot of pitching between AA, AAA, and ML.
Also, some of you are going to be pissed how the Braves handle the starting rotation in the offseason (or don’t handle).
Locked On Braves listed out how many SP candidates they probably have:
-Sale
-Strider
-Schwellenbach
-Lopez
-Holmes (TBD)
-Wentz
-ASS (second half)
-Waldrep
-Fuentes
And several guys like JR Ritchie who could probably factor into the equation in the second half of next year. So I just don’t see them going out and spending the $20-25M it’s probably going to take to get a truly reliable starter, and they’re probably going to just run it back with the Dodgers’ “spaghetti against the wall” idea.
Not me. I wanted to keep Fried but with as bad as our offense and bullpen are we can’t afford to improve on our strongest area while neglecting those.
I am still not expecting a Bo Bichette signing. He is probably playing himself out of our meager price range. If we actually want to compete next season, that would be the surest bet, but I can’t see us outbidding everyone
For all the talk of profit$ we will sign a bargain veteran middle infielder and a couple of middle relievers.
Dumpster diving — it’s the Liberty and AA Way!
Why spend for actual quality when you scrounge for a potential STEAL that, if it works out, gives you the chance to puff out your chest and act like you’re the smartest person in the GM meetings and that your waste byproduct smells like lilacs?
Huascar Ynoa is rocking a 5.17 ERA for the Conspiradores de Queretaro, which may now be my favorite team nickname. https://lmb.com.mx/jugador/660623
If the goal is to increase lottery chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick, Carrasco is an ideal mechanism of accomplishing this. A major-league pitcher, he is not.
Well, I didn’t see that inning coming. Although to be fair, the offense has improved as of late. I expect the. bullpen to give it all back and more asap.
Carrasco did not look terrible in his first few starts with Atlanta, but he was throwing batting practice tonight. I do think the rain delay could have affected things, so I will wait for the next few starts before completely writing him off. The guy has had some pretty good years, but considering he’s 38 and has not had a positive WAR since 2022, writing him off is probably the right thing to do. His career WAR starting 2021 was 22, it is now 18.8, so yeah, he’s done.
Yeah, Carrasco is nothing more than an innings eater, and not much of one at that. I don’t know why, but I thought we’d sign Stroman once he got released by the Yanks.
Anyway, one of our better wins for the year. It would be most satisfying if we can cause the Mets to miss out on the playoffs. That would give me some joy.
That’s a game I wish I’d been able to attend.
No matter our situation, it’s always good to break those hearts in Flushing.
Looks like Frank had a fun night.
Boy, it’s been a great year to be a Mets hater, if nothing else. I’m struck by the fact that we scored 11 runs on just 8 hits, one of only five times all season that we’ve scored more runs than we’ve had hits:
JonathanF – can you factcheck my work? Is this something that we’ve done more or less of in previous years? In general, I’d like to be able to outscore our hit total from time to time, as it seems like the kind of thing that would be more likely the more efficient an offense you have.
Recapped