Well That Doesn’t Happen Every Day

So yesterday the Braves came back from three runs down in the eighth with a five run inning that included nary a home run. That is clearly unprecedented for a team that has six wins on the season, but how rare is it? There are dozens of way this question can be answered, but let’s just examine some general facts first.

From 2000-2024, there were 1,081,728 half innings of baseball played in MLB. In those million-odd half-innings exactly 6,309 had 5 runs scored, or around 0.6%. Of those, 3,650 had homers, leaving just 2,559 with no jome run, or under 1/4 of 1 percent. Once we require the batting team to be down by 3 runs, we are down to 166 half-innings. And once we require the outburst to occur in the 8th inning, there are but 19 games.

Only one of these previously involved Atlanta, and we were on the other side. On July 23, 2001, Tom Glavine exited after seven shutout innings leading 3-0 and handed the ball to Mike Remlinger. Big mistake on this day. 5 runs later, including three runs Grybo’d in by Josè Cabrera, the Braves were down 5-3. They scored one in the bottom of the 8th, but lost 5-4.

The statisticians among Braves Journal readers (oh surely there must be one or two…) will recognize that specifying the rarity of an event is an example of the reference set problem. Was last night’s comeback an example of a 5 run inning, a five run inning with no homers, a five run inning with no homers while trailing, a five run inning with no homers while trailing by 3 runs, a five run inning whit no homers while trailing by three runs in the eighth, a five run inning with no homers while trailing by three that the batting team wins, or some combination of these attributes? Cut finely enough, every individual game is unique.

There was exactly one other game in the last 25 years in which a team was down three going to the bottom of the eighth, scored 5 without a homer and won 6-4. If you remember this game you’ve seen both times it happened in this millenium.

Tonight

On paper, tonight’s game was an obvious mismatch: a 34 year old veteran sporting a gaudy 1.35 ERA against an aging 36 year old trying to hang on despite his 6.63 ERA. I mean sure — Justin Topa was making his first career start with under 100 innings pitched since his debut in 2020 and Chris Sale seems to have a slightly better pedigree… but y’know… ERA!

But it was not to be. Topa was but a stalking horse, albeit a stalking horse who ceded a run in his inning of work. Chris Sale, however, continues to try and find himself. If he were hurt, would he tell anyone? I have no idea. But 98 pitches in 4 1/3 innings is not last year’s Chris Sale.

The Twins scored on a sac fly in the top of the 6th to break the tie, but in the bottom Michael Harris II hit a giant homer, Nick Allen singled and even Jarred Kelenic hit what would have been a double had he not admired his handiwork in the box. When you’re Jarred Kelenic, you haven’t earned the right to admire your handiwork. Run now and watch the replay at home tonight. Verdugo knocke in Allen and the Braves took the lead. But Kelenic cost the Braves a run, which hopefully they won’t need.

So the good news: Verdugo seems locked in (4 hits), the bullpen continues to pitch well, back-to-back wins for the first time this season, ten straight wins against the Twins going back to August 2019, It doesn’t make up for Kent Hrbek, but I’m pretty sure nothing will. We’ve had enough bad news, so I’m not going there. Joe Ryan against Grant Holmes tomorrow for a possible sweep? Sure, why not? An Easter miracle!