In April of 2021, the Braves traded for Orlando Arcia and then gave him the Adam Duvall treatment by immediately sending him to the FCL to fix his swing. The problem: he wasn’t dropping his hands quick enough which caused an influx in K’s. Arcia completely revamped his swing and the hands were the focal point. When Arcia was promoted to MLB, the fruits of his labor didn’t show up in 2021, but the stage was set for a breakout.
2022 and 2023 were much better and Arcia, to the chagrin of most Braves fans, won the shortstop job over Vaughn Grissom. Fortunately, it was the right choice and Arcia put up extraordinary defense and a solid mid-.700s OPS for 2 years. Unfortunately, 2024 was not kind.
Orlando’s Statcast page in the 2 previous seasons had quite a bit of red, yet his 2024 statcast page approached North Pole territory. Everything dropped drastically, including the one thing that had always been his calling card: Defense. Arcia ended the season with a .625 OPS and, according to Fangraphs, wasn’t even considered to be a top 30 shortstop (Yikes).
The lucky thing for Arcia is that he’s still cheap, had 2 strong seasons prior to 2024, and the Braves have several other needs likely more dire than replacing a shortstop. While I’d love to see AA pull a rabbit out of his hat and grab someone, I think Orlando is here and I hope the Orlando of 2022 and 2023 shows up.
There is another option, as Orlando could become what he was meant to become when the Braves first traded for him and that is a utility player that fills in around the infield when a player gets injured or needs a rest. While I like this option, I feel like Arcia will be manning shortstop on Opening Day, and that will be disappointing to many Braves fans.
It looks like Kyle Tucker is about to be traded to the Cubs. If Houston is retooling, is Framber Valdez the rabbit out of the hat for AA?
Boston probably doesn’t have the prospect capital now; New York just signed Max; LA doesn’t have room in the rotation; Texas is probably out; and I don’t see San Diego taking on another pitcher so close to free agency but you never know with Preller.
That probably leaves us, Philly, the Mets and maybe Toronto right? The Reds love to trade for good players when they aren’t close to contending, so I could also see them in the mix.
Get ‘er done, Wren.
MLBTR shared an article where Dana Brown says it is unlikely they will move Valdez. Though of course that could be posturing to drive up his value.
Some folks are saying our competitive window is closing. I disagree:
C – 30 years old
1B – 30
2B – 27
SS – 30
3B – 27
LF – 25
CF – 23
RF – 26
Average SP – 28.6
5 other SP candidates – 24.2
I think the window is in its prime.
I desperately want you to be right, but the player ages don’t matter if they‘re already washed up.
C- replacement level
2B – replacement level
SS- sub-replacement
LF – slightly above replacement
1B – above average, can be elite
3B – elite
CF – may be elite, may have peaked offensively as a rookie
RF – superstar, but durability concerns
There is a reasonable chance C and 2B rebound in 2025. That is my hope. But there is a reasonable chance of neither. In that case, we are a Sale injury from being .500 in my opinion.
In Stampton’s world of data gathering:
One down year > multiple years of success
2B – 2023 All-Star is now “replacement level” in one season
C – 2023 All-Star is now “replacement level” in one season
SS – above average regular in 2023, statistically not sub-replacement level, but labeled sub-replacement level
Atlanta was 23 games above .500 last year. So was Chris Sale a 11.5 WAR player?
I think this subjective negativity works better on Twitter. I think most folks here see that we had a down year and are not willing to write most of team off.
And the problem with the negative Nancy’s is that they’re never around when the team is playing really well admitting they were wrong. See: Nocahoma, Chief
I’m comfortable the window will be open the next 3 seasons, plus or minus 1. We’ll need another SS and possibly a C, and I’m a little concerned about how Olson is going to age. Kelenic may eventually pan out, or else he’ll be upgraded. But the core of it is Acuna, Riley, Albies, and Harris and we will continue to build around that.
Anything can happen injury-wise over a long enough time frame (and already has,) but I feel like the most likely scenario is that proven hitters at those ages will continue to hit more often than not.
I’ll give you this Rob–Arcia was so bad for the first half that I didn’t recall that he had worked his way back to positive WAR in the second half. You are right–he was not sub-replacement. On the other hand, you predicted before the season that Arcia could do no worse than a .750 OPS. I replied that I didn’t see how you figured that given Arcia had never posted a .750 OPS in his career, and I opined he was much closer to declining to replacement level than repeating as an All-Star. I guess that was me being a Negative Nancy, but it was correct.
And you’re wrong about me never being around when the team is playing well. Haven’t been here that long, but it gives me no joy for the team to play poorly. I was one of the people fully confident we would make the playoffs last season, even when we were a few games back.
I wish Stampton would let us know what he really thinks about AA’s letting Freeman go, the trade for Olson, and especially the trade for Murphy. 🙂
Seriously, although I agree with Rob about our window being pretty open for a while, I appreciate Stampton’s skepticism about AA’s genius. I’m among those who think Anthopoulos is the best GM the Braves have ever had, but it’s important not to accept everything he does uncritically.
Having said all of that, I’m nowhere near ready to declare the Freeman/Olson swap or the Contreras/Murphy trade as failures. 2024 was down for Olson and a disaster for Murphy, but Olson’s 2023 was phenomenal, and Murphy and Contreras had very comparable years in 2023. It will take another couple of seasons to really evaluate.
Finally, for all the talk about the Braves’ pitching woes, Atlanta’s pitchers were the best in the league in 2024, by ERA, fip, K/9, HR/9, and several other measures. Of course we expect regression for Sale and Lopez and we’ll miss Fried more than we know, but at least we start from a good place.
My point last week was that our two best players are coming off major injuries, and as a result, the World Series window could be shorter than expected. Acuña wasn’t having a good 2024 even before the ACL injury due to another knee issue. Meanwhile, Strider is coming back from his second major elbow surgery and there’s no guarantee he’ll be the same. You can win big without them but it’s less likely. It’s time to be more aggressive. If you have dead money on the payroll in 2030 or something then so be it.
Saying we’re probably closer to the end of the title window than the beginning shouldn’t be that controversial. We’re about to start year eight of this current run, and it likely ends in 2028 when Acuña can enter free agency. That would mean 11 straight years of contending for a World Series, which is incredible in the modern era. If Acuña is even 80% of his 2023 season it will likely cost a fortune to re-sign him. Does anyone see Alex paying a 31-year-old Acuña $200 million or more?
There are other variables that could extend the run. The new TV deal is up in a few years, and maybe that increases payroll to new heights. Additionally, there are a few high-ceiling, international signings in Augusta who could make a difference one day soon, and Michael Harris has the potential to be a superstar.
I’m not entirely sure it’s fair to call Murphy replacement level, as oblique injuries are notoriously hard for baseball players to recover from. I think he’s good again in 2025. I think it’s more than fair to be concerned with Ozzie given the age curves of second basemen and all the injuries he’s had. Kelenic has never been a good hitter.
Heaven forbid anyone have a different feeling here, no wonder there is no more traffic on this site.
I think the comments count is way down because it’s so damn annoying to type one’s name and email address every time one comments.
It’s the off-season, there’s not a lot happening in BravesLand yet & some folks have a lot going on. (FWIW, consider me underwhelmed at the De La Cruz signing.)
Also, speaking for myself, 3 of my 5 fall/winter sports teams (incl. UGA hoops, somewhat shockingly) are having more-than-decent seasons, so they’re earning most of my attention.
Consequently, I can wait until there’s some movement from AA to get more animated about this Braves bunch. It’ll happen & we’ll have plenty to squawk about.
Stampton,
Arcia had a .738 OPS in his 767 PAs in Atlanta before 2024. If you knew the entire lineup was going to see a 100 point haircut off each starter’s OPS, then, man, you could have made a lot of money betting last year. Arcia’s regression is consistent with the entire lineup’s regression.
tflody,
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with “questioning AA’s genius.” When we won the World Series in 2021, I said that Coppy deserved just as much credit as AA. I think AA’s done a great job, and I think he deserves a ton of credit for extending the core of our team and his work at the 2021 trade deadline, but who built the Worls Series winner? 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and RF were all acquired by Coppy. SP2, SP3, and SP5 were also acquired by Coppy. I’ve been just as big of a defender of Coppy as AA.
AA also deserves criticism for the catcher trade not being in the win column so far. However, I don’t think he deserves any criticism for the Freeman situation. I think he made a smart move not re-signing Dansby. He’s not some kind of infallible wizard who shan’t be questioned but he’s a really good GM, probably top 3-4 in the game.
But if you’re mad that Atlanta isn’t signing guys to $9-10M per WAR when we’ve consistently signed guys to much better value, and you’re mad you’re not hearing your team’s name called on MLB Network or reading it on X, then I don’t know what to tell you. You may not like how he spends his offseason, but the guy’s won an average of 98 games these last 3 seasons and won a World Series 4 years ago, and he’s more than earned the benefit of the doubt.
“If you knew the entire lineup was going to see a 100 point haircut off each starter’s OPS, then, man, you could have made a lot of money betting last year. Arcia’s regression is consistent with the entire lineup’s regression.”
This is an interesting way of deflecting from the fact that you actually uttered these words: “I think Arcia is pretty much a lock for a .750 OPS”
Link: https://bravesjournal.com/2024/01/29/alex-anthopolous-is-a-cheat-code/
That was an insanely bad, braindead prediction. I didn’t know it was a bad prediction because I am clairvoyant. I just watch a lot of sports and spend a lot of time pretending to be a scout. I saw Arcia’s 2023 as an anomaly and his defense declining along with a problematic swing/approach being a recipe for failure rather than success. No, I didn’t foresee the steep offensive downturn for the entire league, but Arcia was arguably the worst regular in baseball for the first half, even accounting for all that.
‘But if you’re mad that Atlanta isn’t signing guys to $9-10M per WAR when we’ve consistently signed guys to much better value, and you’re mad you’re not hearing your team’s name called on MLB Network or reading it on X, then I don’t know what to tell you.”
What a stupid strawman. Nobody is “mad” that we aren’t outspending the Dodgers and Yankees or making enough headlines. People actually make astute observations about serious blunders by our management and you crap on them and pretend they’re just ignorant, negative fans who are driven by shallow emotion and don’t follow the team except to complain.
Wait, wait, hold on, Stampton.
You’re going to have to explain something to me. Why is it an “insanely bad, braindead prediction” that a 29 year old — seemingly with at least one more year of career peak — with a .738 OPS in his last two seasons shouldn’t be counted on for a slight progression?
Break this down for me. He had no discernible batted ball luck (especially across 700+ PAs), there’s no evidence he’s on the downslope of his career physically, he had a consensusly respected hitting coach amongst Braves fans, he didn’t switch ballparks, he had no evidence of injury, he wasn’t being put in a different part of the order. And perhaps even more importantly, at the time, we had no clairvoyance to know that MLB would change the balls, and the entire lineup would see a regression. So, yes, please tell me what information you had that I didn’t.
When someone says something is “braindead”, they ought to be able to easily defend this statement.
Sean Murphy was a 1 win player per Fangraphs even in a “disasterous” season. Not “replacement level.” I think the chances are good he bounces back to being a 3-4 win player. And Drake Baldwin’s future looks bright. We should be fine at catcher.
I’m more worried about Ozzie’s durability and defensive decline at second base. If he gets any worse there he’s a real problem and would need to move to left field. Would still be a better bat in left field than what we have now (and many other teams also).
He’s rated to have the worst throwing arm of any second baseman, so I really don’t see Atlanta being able to move him to LF. Not sure how well his bat plays in LF either.
I think players feed off each other more than is recognized. If one or two guys have bad years, it can drag a whole lineup down as lesser players see different pitches (there’s a reason Harris was so good in the 9th position and Kelenic could be if the rest of the lineup was good). If the lineup regresses (improves) to baseline then it could make everyone including Arcia and Kelenic better.
Only Ozuna and TdA seemed to be immune to that effect.
Ozuna and TDA are more “veteran” than the rest of the lineup as well.
Let’s not forget we have a new hitting coach that may adjust the approached of Ozzie, Murphy and Kelenic that could result in improvements for all three. I would be a lot less confident of a return to success if we just kept the same philosophies that we had the last several years.
I think this is the biggest point. The entire lineup except Ozuna regressed. The organization, which possesses more info than we ever will, fired the hitting coach after several years of success. Anyone ignoring this data point in assessing the team going forward has an agenda, nothing more.