In November of 2023, the Braves signed Reynaldo Lopez to a 3 year/$30MM deal. The media headline was “Braves Bolster ‘pen, sign Reynaldo Lopez”. Fortunately for the Braves, Anthopoulos didn’t sign Lopez to be a reliever, rather a starter.
Reynaldo’s Career of Back and Forths
Lopez was with the Nationals in 2016 as a hybrid, starting some and relieving some. After being traded to the White Sox, he really began his career as a starter. He’d go on to start 91 games with lackluster results. In 2022, the Sox moved him to the bullpen and his trajectory changed from back end starter to solid closer and that was the way he was viewed going into the 2023 offseason. And when the Braves signed him for 3/$30MM, I was excited for another back end bullpen guy, but wasn’t quite convinced that he was worth the money. A day later, we find out that AA wanted him in the rotation and now, 3/$30MM seems like an absolute steal for a guy that put up $28.2 MM in value in 2024, according to fWAR.
Reynaldo’s Fantastic 2024
And while there were a few injury scares along the way, nothing serious ever came out of the scares and Lopez ended up starting 25 games and throwing 135.2 innings of upper end baseball. It’s also worth point out that Lopez’s success was no fluke as his Statcast page is chock full of red as his breaking run value, pitching run value, and fastball run value were in the 99th, 97th, and 99th percentiles.
Heading in to 2025, Lopez will likely slot in as the number 3 starter, which is quite a luxury considering his success in 2024. And now that he restructured his contract, Lopez should be around for the next 3 years.
From last thread, RE: Soto:
Stampton rightly noted that he’s basically being paid $10M per WAR assuming he’ll average around 5 WAR per season for the contract. So that’s really not that crazy once it’s contextualized.
I’m always getting Stampton’d
I’m not expecting Lopez to get anywhere close to his 2024, but fortunately he doesn’t have to be to still be an excellent 3rd starter.
I don’t know what the future holds, but the only improvement that would be required for him to move up to #2 is for him to have a bit more longevity in his starts, from about 5 innings to 6 or so. But I’d rather have a 5 inning starter at 2.00era, than a 6 inning starter a 3.5. Either way, he was a great signing.
Hopefully another offseason of preparing as a starter will help him.
I’m a little late to the Soto comments.
Soto is such a good player, and he’s being paid so much money, that I’m a little puzzled as to how the Mets will ruin him. The standard method, career-shortening medical malpractice (see Mo Vaughn and David Wright), wouldn’t seem to apply to a guy wealthy enough to start his own med school. He doesn’t seem to be built in the Strawberry/Gooden mess-up-your-own-life-without-help mold, but I guess anything is possible.
My best thought here is the sort of fan angst that will come up every time a two week Mets losing period lines up with the occasional Soto slump. Or it may take a full lousy season before the “We spent $50 million for that bum?” finds it way onto New York call-in radio. Anyway, I have faith in the Mets and their fans, and I can’t wait to see how they screw this one up.
https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-focus-on-filling-key-spots-ahead-of-2025-season?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
“If the Braves aren’t comfortable making a multiyear commitment at that price to a pitcher of that age, would it make more sense to give a one-year, $10-15 million deal to 41-year-old Charlie Morton. Morton posted a 4.19 ERA over 30 starts this year and a 3.64 ERA over 30 starts in 2023.”
No.
I’ll tie together the Soto signing with the recent HoF announcement. Both Parker and Allen are cautionary tales for contracts, like Soto’s, that extend to age 40.
Parker was an excellent, MVP caliber player in his late twenties. His career lasted until his age 40 season but from age 30 on he only had one season in which his bWAR exceeded 1.1. As a result, his ultimate career OPS+ was a very pedestrian 121. Parker is one of the least deserving hall of famers.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Dick Allen. The first baseball season I followed closely was 1964. Allen had a rookie season for the ages, and led the woebegone Phillies to their best season in years. He earned the MVP a few years later with the Chisox. All in all, he was just about the best offensive player in the game for about a decade. But thanks to multiple injuries and other issues, his career petered out by his age 35 season. I think Allen is a deserving HoFer despite the shortened career. His career OPS+ was 156, which places him among the all time greats. In fact, that is one point higher than Henry Aaron and Willie Mays, and two points above Frank Robinson. Of course he was nowhere near the overall player of those older contemporaries, but he was one helluva hitter.
I realize that the Mets know they may get little or no production from Soto in the last five years of this deal, and that’s part of the calculation. It’s possible, though, they may get only five strong years or so. Most players decline pretty noticeably beginning by age 30.
Max Fried reportedly down to Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays as potential suitors.
Well we knew it wouldn’t be the Braves. And to be honest, I wouldn’t pay that for him
Well, the Braves cant keep letting guys go and ten replacing them with lesser players, at some point keep them or trade them if your not going to sign them.
The last five years (or more) of that contract are going to be painful for the Mets. But if he opts out then its not too bad, they’re just paying a premium for his prime free-agent years. But I wouldn’t want to pay an aging DH 50 mill / year. It brings to mind Pujols with the Angels.
It also makes Ohtani even more of a steal / bargain for the Dodgers. But at least Fried won’t be signing with them. I really feared he would at the start of the offseason.