Our season is still alive, but whatever happens over the next week, this season has to prompt some soul-searching in the coaching staff and front office.
Not Their Fault
Now, some things are not their fault. (Or not clearly, obviously, beyond question their fault.)
• I’m not going to blame the rash of injuries on the team; we certainly seem to have suffered more than our share.
• It certainly seemed like we had a lot of balls die at the warning track this year; some amount of home run rate is luck-based.
• A lot of our guys went through slumps; some of that is luck-based.
I looked at a lot of the team-level stats on baseball-reference, and the Braves’ rates of moving baserunners over and getting them home are uniformly in the bottom half of baseball teams. Not only was our offense substantially below its previous norms, but our offensive efficiency also plummeted, and I think it’s fair to ask the coaching staff why the players so routinely failed to bring runners home, at rates far worse than other teams.
But the roster construction is within the front office’s control, and that’s where I’m focused right now.
Retreads
Alex Anthopoulos made an uncharacteristically few number of moves. But of the moves he did make, many of them involved reunions with players who had previously been on the team, and whose 2024 results were less impressive than they had been in years past, like:
• Eddie Rosario
• Forrest Wall
• Luke Williams
• Luke Jackson
• Eli White
• Jorge Soler
Why the moves didn’t work
There were really two main problems:
- First, in an ordinary year, the performance of a guy like Forrest Wall really wouldn’t matter. It makes a lot of sense to bring back a previous benchwarmer to fill the 25th man role again. The trouble is that Forrest Wall was forced to take meaningful at-bats because the team’s depth was so thin that there just wasn’t anyone else.
- There really were no other major midyear acquisitions to reinforce the team. The biggest midseason acquisition was Jorge Soler, who was acquired as a salary dump, who had no position to play, and whose modestly positive offense has been almost exactly offset by his as-poor-as-advertised defense, for which he’s played six innings a night. The team needed a full-time frontline starting player, and he just isn’t one. That’s why he was available as a salary dump in the first place, and that was true both times we acquired him.
Ultimately, the fact that Brian Snitker’s reserves are as thin as they are, in both the bench and the pen, is squarely on Alex Anthopoulos. That Aaron Bummer was allowed to load the bases in a literally must-win game yesterday, with Jesse Chavez warming up in relief, is on Anthopoulos.
(Of course, the way in which Bummer loaded them up was a classic of his oeuvre: on two bunts, the second of which he made a poor throw to try to get the lead runner, neglecting to take the out, stupid. He gets killed by soft contact.)
Many of Alex’s midyear pickups have worked out. Gio Urshela and Whit Merrifield have been more or less fine. Grant Holmes has been a revelation from the farm system. Ray Kerr looked great before he was foolishly pressed into spot starting duty. Ramon Laureano has, improbably, been a star.
In the end
But it hasn’t really been enough. The team has suffered monthslong injuries to most of its starting lineup: only Olson, Ozuna, and Arcia have been spared, and the team nearly wilted when the latter was himself on the shelf due to injury, as emergency replacement Zack Short was entirely inept. Jarred Kelenic, one of AA’s biggest offseason acquisitions, has stayed healthy, but he’s been badly exposed. The top relievers – Iglesias, Jimenez, Johnson, and Lee – have stayed healthy, as have Sale, Fried, Morton, and Schwellenbach, but all have been ridden pretty hard, and there really aren’t any other starters or relievers Snitker can trust.
As the man responsible for the 25-man and the 40-man rosters, that’s ultimately on AA. We came into this year with a championship-caliber roster and high hopes of a deep October run, and now we’re on the playoff bubble in danger of outright missing the postseason.
In AA I trust, but he was in a slump this year, too.

I can’t blame the front office all that much when most of your good everyday players missed significant time. Who was out there that we could’ve gotten but passed on? (Serious question, I haven’t been paying that much attention this year). That said, I do blame the front office and the coaching staff for our amazingly terrible plate approaches with runners in scoring position – particularly the guy-on-third-less-than-2-outs fails. Watching Sean Murphy and Orlando Arcia close their eyes and swing out of their shoes when behind in the count is just an insult. Those guys aren’t great hitters even in a good year, and this year they’ve been so bad that I wouldn’t bring them back if money weren’t an issue. Who takes the blame for our trash at-bats? Seitzer? Snitker? AA? All of the above? They’ve got to fix this crap, and if the players don’t want to be less selfish then they need to play somewhere else.
Murphy & Arcia weren’t brought here for their offense. They’re good defenders with some pop that’ll complement a (formerly) stacked lineup. Without all the injured all-stars/individual-trophy winners, I’m not going to worry about what those guys can’t do.
If you take Judge & Soto off the Yanks, what do you have? If you take Lindor & Alonso off the Mets, what do you have? If you take Harper, Turner & Schwarber off the Phils, what do you have? Nothing any GM can fully fix. You can’t anticipate your very best players going down for all, most or some of the season.
Wanna continue to bitch about the Contreras trade? Fine, but few would be moaning so much if Acuna, Strider, Albies, Minter, Riley, Harris and, yes, Murphy hadn’t missed all or giants chunks of the season. If you’re gonna whine about Contreras, then make sure you leave room to bow down to AA for the acquisitions of Sale & Lopez.
This team got struck by lightning several times this year & here’s where we are… that’s the story.
Now, let’s go break the Mets’ hearts.
Amen.
With one exception, AA did what he has usually done, which is to address short-term problems with answers that have no long-term repercussions. In 2021, Rosario, Pederson and Soler cost almost nothing, so whether they worked or not, they didn’t encumber the future. When they work out, it’s great, and if they don’t, well, there’s always next year. I think that’s a great strategy in general, even though you get a lot of criticism in the years it fails in the short run.
But the 2021 Soler acquisition and the 2024 Soler acquisition are very different from this perspective. If Soler had failed in 2021, we’d have said “Well, we lost Acuna… what can you do?” But acquiring Soler with two years left on a contract when you have no place to play him even when he’s here means he has to perform. I think I’d rather have struggled through a disappointing season with Rosario and Duvall and Kelenic out there than failing and losing $32 million of future salary. (I think if you look back at all the digital ink I’ve spilled here, I am never criticizing the Braves for being passive when there is nothing available at a reasonable cost to actively address a problem. Down that path lies teams who fail to compete year after year as their expensive acquisitions weigh down their future flexibility.)
The other part of the Anthopolous strategy is to address long-term problems with long-term solutions. For all the complaints about Murphy, he’s a long-term solution and you can’t assess that decision over a single decidedly bad year, but it does start the clock ticking.
I don’t blame the FO for injuries – but I think the number of sub-replacement at-bats and innings given to guys like Forrest Wall, Zack Short, Eddie Rosario, and Luke Jackson, and the attempts to press into service Hurston Waldrep and Nacho Alvarez when both were clearly unready – indicate that the team just didn’t have any remotely acceptable internal options. I would have loved to see us get a few more guys like Amed Rosario or Jesse Winker. I’m sure Benintendi could have been available!
Clearly, some teams held out for insane prices that they were never going to get, which is why some players didn’t move teams. But quite a few of the players who actually moved ended up being quite affordable.
I appreciate that AA is extremely focused on preserving optionality. But I think his moves this year were so low-risk that they simply did not have a prayer of helping us make up ground.
Hello? No money and they wanted our best prospects for crappy players like Tommy Pham? What an asshold
At the risk of beating a dead horse…I do not blame this season on anything AA did during the last year. His acquisitions over the last 12 months have been a significant net positive (Sale, Lopez, etc). This year we got bit by the injury bug, and that is not his fault. However, we had less resiliency than in years past because of how bad Arcia, Murphy, and to some degree Olson have been offensively. The decision to turn Swanson, Contreras, and Freeman into those 3 far inferior players is entirely on AA. Moving on from Swanson was the only one of the 3 I sort of agreed with at the time, though if it had been up to me, I would’ve paid him the $120MM/6 he’d asked for and we wouldn’t have a problem at SS. Those deals will haunt us, unfortunately.
Murphy has been all sorts of brutal, and I don’t like his bat at all, but I cant see him being this bad again next year.
The Soler trade is the head scratcher, if SF retained half the salary or something ok, but it was a lot of money for an extra DH. Oh well, lets see what shakes out, Braves could push 90 wins with all thats happened is quite impressive.
Well said, Alex.
In my estimation, this off-season could be the most consequential of AA’s career.
Here’s what stands out to me the most:
Do they move on from Murphy and give Baldwin a chance to start? Is Baldwin traded? The wrong move here could be devastating long term. Could you imagine if Murphy continues to decline and we traded Contreras AND Baldwin?
Assuming Fried walks and Charlie retires, do they trade for a starting pitcher? Without Fried, they will begin the year with three proven starting pitchers, two of whom have injury histories (Sale and Lopez). I’m not including Strider yet because it’s still TBD on when he returns.
What to do with DH? As Alex noted, Soler isn’t much of a defender now but Ozuna has to be in the lineup and absolutely cannot play defense. Can you risk Soler’s defense for another year? What if Acuna needs to DH?
All contending teams need high-leverage relievers and we are no exception. Do we try to resign Minter on a one-year deal? They desperately need someone with velocity from the left side.
Does the team adjust their overall hitting philosophy? This could manifest in a new hitting coach, players who have better on base skills or ideally both.
Is AA really prepared to let Arcia start at short for another season?
Finally, the Ozzie problem. He’s a beloved player but his defense has declined rapidly and his approach at the plate will not age well. If this team is going to upgrade it’s probably going to be at second or short and it’s generally easier to acquire second basemen than shortstops.
I’m sure I’ve missed something so feel free to add to the list.
I haven’t written off Ian Anderson yet. although the Jethro Tull one is definitely on the far side of Kids Get Off My Lawn.
I have foolishly talked myself into the idea that it is possible that this carcass of a team can take 2 out of 3 from the Mets, but it’s really hard to see a sweep.
Phil Niekro does not want to hear about my negativity.
https://x.com/BravesOnTBS/status/1837834252739633330
If the Mets win the series, I hope they give the Phillies the business and knock those jerks out of the playoffs.
I thought that AA did a good job building depth at the beginning of the season at all places except SS. I rarely disagree with Alex, but I have no idea what AA could’ve done differently. I wrote this on Twitter:
So many #Braves fans want to blame AA/Snit for this season. The team lost both Strider & Acuña right out the gate, followed by Ozzie twice, Riley twice, Lopez twice, Minter twice, MH2 twice, Laureano, Kerr, Waldrep, Shawver, Matzek, & Pierce.
7 core players.
There’s no way that they could’ve ever prepared for this season and the dead baseball. The Braves lead the league in hard hit %. Let that sink in a bit. Sure, they are piss poor at situational hitting, but there was zero way to prepare an entire lineup to ditch what made them one of the most lethal lineups in MLB history because Rob Manfred messed with the ball again.
It’s the injuries.
I agree with Alex on Soler. Weird move and even weirder when factoring in that he’ll have to play him in the OF next year.