I am astounded. I know fandom clouds judgment, but neither the “technical projectionists” nor the “always careful on their bets” crowds saw anything like this. This team needs a positive jolt and keeps getting mostly negative jolts.
First, Braves were playing a fundamentally atrocious team. Well, not as bad as the White Sox, or the Rockies, maybe. But clearly consensus view number 5 in NL East.
Charlie Morton created a hole in the first inning and that made it awful unlikely. He got to 2 outs and one on, and then allowed double, walk, single, double. So, it was then 4 to 0.
So, then, for the next 6 innings, the offense said “Charlie, hold my beer.” Mitchell Parker, the Nats rookie starter, has showed pretty good stuff this year, so it is not preposterous that he might do pretty well. But this? Horrors!!!
Charlie “braved” it out and saved the pen. But he gave up single runs in 2 and 3 and 2 more runs in 6 before Uncle Jesse Chavez came in and stopped the bleeding. So, after it was 8 to 0, the offense almost woke up.
Scored 4 in inning 7, the Braves got 4 runs with all sorts of positives (walks, hits, home runs, stolen bases, things like that). But that was it for the night.
As the chronicler David Essex, OBE said, “And where do we go from here? And which is the way that’s clear.” Damn if I know.

Posted this in yesterday’s game thread just a few minutes ago as part of the Murphy/Contreras discussion, but wanted to post it here, too:
I agree that the Brewers’ coaching staff deserves a lot of credit in helping Contreras shore up his defense. They’ve taken numerous catchers over the years – Yasmani Grandal, Omar Narvaez, Manny Pina, and others – and developed them into elite defenders, particularly when it comes to pitch framing. It’s a veritable catching factory over there.
During his time with the Braves, Contreras never ranked higher than the 22nd percentile in pitch framing, and also graded out rather poorly in other defensive metrics like blocks above average and pop time. I’m wondering if the Braves just didn’t feel like they could develop him into a solid framer, since they have tended to acquire guys who are already good at it (Tyler Flowers, Jeff Mathis, etc.).
Murphy, on the other hand, was already a great defender and had the raw power and tools needed to successfully adopt the Braves’ hitting philosophy (i.e., swinging hard, sacrificing whiffs in the zone for good contact whenever contact is actually made), which he did to a large degree last year (higher xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate than Contreras).
I certainly wouldn’t argue that this trade has been a slam dunk so far, as Contreras was more valuable than Murphy last year and Sean has missed most of this year due to injury. However, the difference in value last year (5.7 fWAR vs. 4.9 fWAR) isn’t huge. I also think that, going forward, Murphy is not going to be as bad as he was after the ASB break last year (had some pretty bad xwOBA underperformance).
Somehow, I had the feeling that the Braves would come out flat yesterday. Just a hunch…
And in other news, much-derided umpire Angel Hernandez is retiring immediately “to spend more time with his family.”
Angel was clearly not good, but are we even sure he was the worst? I’d love to see all the internal evaluations.
Rusty, Angel definitely wasn’t the worst umpire. He just became the face of bad umpiring. Once you become that, then you can’t shake that rep. CB Bucknor is wayyyy worse.
I agree Rob. I think there are probably some others who are also worse but manage to keep a lower profile. Angel certainly did himself no favors. But at least he and Joe West and Sam Holbrook are gone now.
Not the very worst, apparently, but consistently at the very bottom of the list, and also consistently among the umpires involved in the greatest number of on-field conflicts. He doesn’t just blow calls, he’s extremely thin-skinned when he’s called out on it – so thin-skinned that he sued Major League Baseball for discrimination, and he lost.
It’s one thing to be bad at your job. It’s another thing to be bad at your job and think you’re good at your job. Angel has had the widest gap between self-perception and reality in the league. He’s worse at that than Bucknor!
Thanks cliff. I nominate you for OBJ (Order of Braves Journal) for your chronicling.
I hated the Murphy trade only in that Milwaukee got Contreras for nothing, which is malpractice on someone’s part. But AA got what he wanted from Oakland, so I’m sure he wasn’t wanting to blow up the trade trying to extract something more from Milwaukee.
It was clear Contreras was a good bet to hit. That the Brewers were able to improve his defense is something we might want to look at internally.
No complaints about Murphy though; he’s very good. However, I do think if we acknowledge Murphy is not as bad as he was after the ASB, we also have to acknowledge that he’s not as good as he was before it. Despite the 2nd half, he still managed basically a career year with his overperformance in the 1st half.
Clearly Atlanta didn’t think they were trading a 5.7 fWAR player like Contreras produced last year. He also graded out insanely well defensively last year and is not at all on pace to grade out that well this year.
Last year, he was a 124 wRC+ hitter in 141 games with completely out-of-nowhere elite defense. This year, his defensive has regressed per the metrics but he’s got a 164 wRC+. So which player is he? The guy last year who took a step back offensively and major steps forward defensively, or the guy this year who has taken major steps forward offensively but is now regressing to the mean defensively?
Plus, Murphy himself last year had a 1.000 OPS as late as mid-May and a .900 OPS as late as late August and no one at all was worried about Murphy. So why don’t we wait until Contreras can keep this hitting season going before we declare him one that got away?
I had some dweebs on Twitter try to tell me that we didn’t run Murphy into the ground last year.
April-May: .951 OPS
June-July: .846 OPS
August-September: .669 OPS
Coincidence? Certainly possible. Many hitters wear down as the season goes along. But a native New Yorker who spent his career in Oakland adjusting to the Georgia heat playing the most demanding position in ball? It’s worth a thought, dweebs.
It’s possible that Murphy wore down at the end of last season, and there are some logical reasons to believe so. On the other hand, his career OPS is .775, so I think it’s just as likely and logical that he was simply regressing to the mean. There’s a lot of discussion about how Murphy finished the season, but it seems to be overlooked how crazy his start was.
Alex, thanks for drilling down on Strider. I stand corrected that it’s pretty clear he’s not going max effort all the time. So I guess you would say that Strider’s injury was mostly unavoidable?
I just feel like this organization is having to have the same conversation over and over again for several years now:
-Freddie being criticized for criticizing players not playing 162.
-The trend continues post-Freddie and Olson, Acuna, and Riley average 160 games played last year. Outside of IL stints, Arcia and Harris essentially play 162.
-Acuna leads the league in almost every single counting stat and probably had the most wear-and-tear of any player in MLB last year since he’s stealing bags left and right, playing a demanding position, and playing 161 games. Then plays winter ball.
-I think Murphy wore down last year when we have the best backup catcher in MLB and a really solid 3rd catcher. Inexplicable.
-Some folks (though Alex may have disproved it) suggest that Strider might be going too hard. I know DOB continues to think that Strider could still be effective at 96MPH.
Is Snit basically a glorified babysitter? As long as a player isn’t doing something egregiously bad, he lets them do whatever they want? Sometimes it seems that way.
Agree with you – I’ve been highly critical of the “play every day” culture and I think it could set a dangerous tone, if it encourages players to play through injuries.
With respect to Strider, I don’t know if you saw this Athletic piece in April where he went into some detail about the specific injury that took him down this year, but his explanation gave me more comfort that it was not something that was exacerbated by a specific usage pattern:
Word is that the Braves are calling up Schwellenbach to start on Wednesday.
https://x.com/PitcherList/status/1795478437131407841?t=C3lCjd3hf9cU2L7w4GEl0g&s=19
SIGN BAUER
Kidding.
Now that is intriguing. I’m ready to see what the next wave can do, including more AJSS and Waldrep.