Seriously, could it have ended any worse? Marcell OHzuna drove in his 40th run to give the Braves a 3-2 lead. Dylan Lee came in with a brilliant hold in the eighth, leading my son to ask if Snit might let him trot back out for the ninth.
Instead, A.J. Minter was handed the ball for the ninth for the second time in recent weeks. This had all the makings of one of those dreadful Lifetime Network movies. You know, the ones where the ending is so freaking predictable!
Things looked ok early. Minter quickly had Jeff McNeill with two strikes, throwing hard stuff by the annoying second baseman. McNeill has sucked in recent weeks, but he is crafty – I guess I give him that. Knowing how badly Minter falls off the mound to third base side, McNeill executed a perfect drag bunt and legged it out to reach first base.
With the leadoff runner on, Tomas Nido was sent to the plate to move McNeill into scoring position. Again, the Lifetime ending is imminent, especially when you know that Nido looks like Clark from the Benchwarmers with a bat in his hand, so let’s throw him a change to make the sacrifice easy. Could it have ended any worse?
The answer is an emphatic YES!
We can probably all agree that Pete Alonso is NY-doofus #1. McNeill is #3, which means NY-doofus #2 had to play a role in this one. Brandon Nimmo entered the game late and strode to the plate with McNeill in scoring position. Minter threw him six straight cutters, the last one the worst by far, and Nimmo didn’t miss it.
Could it have ended any worse? NO! Mets 4, Braves 3.
Silver linings
The good news, friends, is Bryce Elder was pretty decent. OHzuna continued to do OHzuna things. And the Braves don’t play another Sunday night baseball game until **checks notes** next Sunday! Sigh…
Thankfully, the season isn’t over. The Braves are 24-13, and maybe Snit now knows the ninth is Minter’s kryptonite. Hey, maybe Snit might even break the old Lifetime movie ending next time out? At least one can hope.
The Cubs come calling tomorrow night, beginning a three-game set in Atlanta.
Was hoping that this contest would end up being known as the “Zack Short game,” wherein he had 2 PAs, drew 2 walks, stole a base & had Ozuna drive him in twice. Unfortunately, it ended up being something else.
Only good thing about attending a game like this is that… well, nobody was there. (FWIW, I sat in half a row of Braves fans.) In fact, it was probably the only NYC MLB game I’ve seen in a decade with an announced crowd below 20,000. So, there wasn’t as much wild hysteria as one might imagine in the end.
And that’s the 2nd time I’ve seen Minter give up a walk-off HR to a lefty hitter in Citi Field. C’est la vie.
https://x.com/braves_rumors/status/1789839749978509460?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Derp.
Saw this as I hit “publish.” Brutal.
I think a significant portion of those ninth-inning numbers come from that year or two when we tried to make him a closer early in his career (I think it was 2018? Maybe he got some work there if we ever got sick of Luke Jackson in 2019 prior to the deadline trade for a bunch of relievers?) and he was truly awful. Like, couldn’t locate his cutter, was afraid to throw any other pitch, etc. Not saying he’s not better in the eighth even now, but I don’t think it’s as bad as those numbers suggest.
If nothing else, we at least saw the (mostly) good version of Bryce Elder. He used his four-seamer less often, emphasized the sinker (especially down and in to righties), and generally had good glove side command on his slider. He also got a LOT more spin on his sinker than in previous outings (2060 RPM vs. an average of 1950).
I hope he sticks with the heavy sinker/slider approach and mostly gets rid of the four-seamer. He’s allowed a .440 xwOBA and .889 SLG against his four-seamer this year with an average launch angle of 26 degrees. The average launch angle for the sinker is 0, so he’s at least able to get grounders with it.
It was a full weekend of no baseball for me. Between my kid’s concerts on Friday, Volunteer work on Saturday, and Mother’s Day on Sunday, I got to watch 0 innings. That might be the first time in 10 years that’s happened.
Glad you didn’t see the bottom of the ninth last night. But good for you to be able to get away from it just a little, Boss!
Lopez vs. Imanaga tonight. Another low-scoring affair?
I realize AJ’s career numbers in the 9th inning are markedly worse than in other innings, but I have a hard time believing that this is anything but small sample size random variation. Relief pitcher stats are notoriously variable. It may be that the pressure of the 9th inning affects Minter’s ability to execute pitches, but I doubt it. He has pitched very well in his career in high leverage high pressure situations in the 7th and 8th innings.
Needless to say, I’ve never pitched in the big leagues (last time for me was little league!) or even known anyone who spent time in a big league clubhouse. Perhaps there really are some pitchers who can’t handle the 9th inning. Last time I checked, though, there is little evidence that big leaguers either choke consistently or are especially good in the clutch.
Minter also seems to implode more frequently than average. I’m not sure this is true, but it seems like he will run off long scoreless streaks between 3-4 run implosions. Maybe he has higher variance.
Glad to see Riley say he should be fine with no long term effect. We don’t need to be without him for 4-6 weeks like Murphy.
I mostly don’t believe in the idea that some relievers simply don’t have a “closer’s mentality,” but Minter and LaTroy Hawkins certainly seemed to be two guys who have been great for a decade in the 8th inning but who routinely struggle in the ninth.
For the most part, though, I think you just have to flush the game, take the series victory, and keep the focus squarely on the offense. For illustration, here’s the Braves team offense since April 21, our loss to the Rangers that I’m taking as the beginning of the Spring Slump:
Marcell Ozuna: 71 PA, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .312/.409/.574
Everyone else: 585 PA, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .200/.270/.306
I feel like I harp on this too much, but all Snit had to do to avoid pitching AJ in the ninth with a one-run lead on Sunday? Pitch him in the ninth with a four-run lead on Saturday. Pitching Raisel in four-run games doesn’t do anything useful to improve our odds of winning those games and can significantly decrease the odds of winning the next game.
I’m sure Raisel was already warm. At that point, you might as well put him in the game, or you’re just going to burn another pitcher.