Note from Ryan: Today, the great Snowshine will be kicking off our Braves Top 25 Prospects list with 9 players in the organization that just missed out, but could be on the cusp of breaking out in 2024. Before we get started, here’s a note/disclaimer from Snowshine himself:

As always, I am not a scout and do not have any analytical baseball training so my opinions are not to be taken too seriously. What I am is a guy who has been following the minors for 40 years and likes to talk to baseball people – especially scouts – every chance I get. I tend to ignore“pedigree”, whatever that is, in the prospect world and evaluate players on some mix of their actual skills plus latent physical ability (tools). I try not to scout stat lines because that may tell you what happened but very rarely give insight into why (which was the lesson I took from “Moneyball” back in the day). On to the show!.

Snowshine

Braves Prospects: The 9 that Just Missed

Seth Keller, RHP, 20, A-, 2026

A short righthander with “the best secondary pitch in the 2022 draft” in his split change, Keller has missed most of the last 2 seasons with arm woes and trips to extended spring training to iron out mechanical flaws. When on the mound he has a 96 mph fastball and a good curve to go with the change. He needs to stay healthy this season and I suspect the team will move him to relief to aid in that regard.

Adam Maier, RHP, 22, None, ???

He had the brace procedure rather than Tommy John shortly after the 2022 draft and has not appeared in any games as a professional as yet. He did spend several months in the extended spring complex this summer and reportedly still has a low 90’s heater along with the world’s filthiest slider. I’d like to see it in action some time 🙂

Ambioris Tavarez, SS, 20, A-, 2027

Our big money sign from 2021, Tavarez displays all the reasons he got the money – easy quick movements in the field, a thunderous arm, good speed on the bases and a bit of power and patience – that has so far been completely undermined by one serious flaw, namely, a 40% strikeout rate. I would blame the team for skipping the complex with him except that he also struck out 42% of the time in 2022 at an age appropriate level. The Braves have a terrible track record fixing this flaw in their prospects (to be fair, every organization does). I expect him to repeat Augusta and we shall see if progress has been made.

Tyler Tolve, C, 23, AA, 2025

Left handed hitting catchers are always in demand in MLB and ones who can actually hit are gold. Tolve had a nightmare year in 2023 due to a quad strain which prevented him from matching his 2022 performance. He also can’t frame a baseball to save his life although his throwing and recieving were better this year. He will get several more chances and we should hope he stays healthy.

Adam Shoemaker, LHP, 21, A-, 2027

A tall lanky lefty out of Ontario, Shoemaker looks the part of a pitcher even if the results have so far failed to appear. The main problem is that he has Schroedinger’s fastball which can either be thrown hard or thrown with control but never both simultaneously. This was actually anticipated by the team’s developmental staff and they always planned a slow progression with occasional timeouts back in extended spring training each year. Barring injury he actually has decent odds of a 10 year career in the bullpen.

Cody Milligan, 2B/OF, 25, AA, 2024

Another guy with every tool except the one that matters. Milligan would like to be the new Ben Zobrist as he is a great defender in both the outfield and at second and possesses excellent hitting mechanics. He just can’t hit for any power at all, with his three 2023 homers being… 1 off his career high. He is going to have a bench job in the show though, although he will likely have to get used to going through the waivers process as the 26th man a lot.

Tyler Owens, RHP, 23, AA, 2024

Another undersized righty who hopes to make the bullpen, Owens was an over slot day 3 of the draft guy back in 2019 who has since endured every injury known to man. When moved to the bullpen this past season he looked pretty good.

Hayden Harris, RHP. 25, AA, 2025

Another older guy, Harris is one of those relievers who has no standout pitch but has 5 reasonably good offerings and relies on changing things up. These guys rarely survive AA which is where Harris will begin the 2024 season.

Jair Casanova, RF, 20, A-, 2027

Casanova has a prototypical right fielders body and tools but like many youngsters from the Dominican has the strikeout bugaboo. He is not as extreme as Tavarez at “only” 29%, but he also lacks Tavarez’ plus hit tool so he really needs to get it under control to have a career. A.199 average will not get the job done.