Sean Murphy put up 3.9 bWAR last season. That’s good enough to put him in the top tier of catchers, well behind leaders Gabriel Moreno and Adley Rutschman, but smack in the middle of Will Smith, the Contreras brothers and J.T. Realmuto. But he did so with by far the oddest catching season in MLB.
Last year there were 22 catchers who played over 100 games with at least 70 games played behind the plate. Using the All-Star Game as the traditional split demarcation, here are the OPS splits for those players:
| Player | 1st Half G | 2nd Half G | 1st Half OPS | 2nd Half OPS | OPS Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | 68 | 43 | 0.655 | 0.894 | -0.239 |
| Willson Contreras | 79 | 46 | 0.754 | 0.959 | -0.205 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 73 | 63 | 0.639 | 0.809 | -0.170 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 67 | 56 | 0.621 | 0.775 | -0.154 |
| Cal Raleigh | 77 | 68 | 0.703 | 0.825 | -0.122 |
| Shea Langeliers | 79 | 56 | 0.633 | 0.752 | -0.119 |
| Martín Maldonado | 67 | 49 | 0.556 | 0.671 | -0.115 |
| William Contreras | 71 | 70 | 0.773 | 0.880 | -0.107 |
| Christian Vázquez | 59 | 43 | 0.552 | 0.653 | -0.101 |
| Nick Fortes | 66 | 42 | 0.549 | 0.585 | -0.036 |
| Adley Rutschman | 86 | 68 | 0.799 | 0.822 | -0.023 |
| Yan Gomes | 56 | 60 | 0.718 | 0.728 | -0.010 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 79 | 56 | 0.766 | 0.757 | 0.009 |
| Jake Rogers | 57 | 50 | 0.750 | 0.711 | 0.039 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 59 | 45 | 0.655 | 0.602 | 0.053 |
| Connor Wong | 70 | 56 | 0.703 | 0.636 | 0.067 |
| Elias Díaz | 80 | 61 | 0.763 | 0.674 | 0.089 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 74 | 44 | 0.691 | 0.568 | 0.123 |
| Jonah Heim | 79 | 52 | 0.812 | 0.656 | 0.156 |
| Will Smith | 66 | 60 | 0.889 | 0.701 | 0.188 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 66 | 57 | 0.810 | 0.613 | 0.197 |
| Sean Murphy | 67 | 41 | 0.999 | 0.585 | 0.414 |
Yikes! Sean Murphy had both the best first half and worst second half of any catcher on this list. That’s really hard to do! That isn’t regression to the mean, which would explain why you’d expect the guy with highest 1st half OPS to be somewhat lower in the second half, or why you’d expect the guy with the lowest 2nd half OPS to be somewhat better in the first half. It isn’t small sample size, though to be fair there could be some portion of it that is “not particularly large sample size.” Murphy’s first half was the best half of his career, and his second half was the worst half of his career. It doesn’t look like overwork: Murphy’s 67 first half games weren’t out of line with the other guys on this list. Nor has he traditionally worn down: his month-by month career OPS don’t show much of a pattern at all.
Now the Braves had such a huge lead in the second half of the season that Murphy’s almost total ineffectiveness was sort of glossed over until people looked up and noticed that we were entering the playoffs with the coldest catcher in baseball. In September/October he was 5 for 55 with a single RBI on a home run in which he broke his bat. In the playoff series Murphy was OK… he generated a barely positive WPA, which was better than some players I could name. And nobody but Austin Riley and Travis d’Arnaud hit a lick in that series.
So what do I expect for 2024? Well, not this. Expecting Sean Murphy to be a 1.000 OPS player, something some of us fooled ourselves into believing, is something that we should never expect. .850 and 4 WAR is something he is definitely capable of… I just wish he didn’t go for a month when he is unplayable. You might need him then.
What about his catching? He definitely has the best arm I’ve seen on a Braves catcher since… well, since when? But the results certainly weren’t there. 2023 was the third lowest caught stealing percentage in the Wild Card Era. Now of course the rule changes mean this isn’t Murphy’s fault, exactly. But the Braves caught only 18% of attempted steals, well in the lower half of 2023 team performance. (Who did the best, you ask? Why it was the new Oakland catcher, one Shea Langeliers — where do the A’s find these players?) And his percentages are well below the prime of Javy Lopez.
I want to be fair here… the conventional wisdom is that you steal on the pitcher, not the catcher, and we have lots of guys whose attitude towards keeping runners on is low. Plus, Max Fried was out a fair part of the season. Murphy passes the ocular test for me.
I know nothing about framing, and I hate the concept of framing, so I will point out that even if Murphy is terrible at it, the robot unps are coming.
So season one of Sean Murphy: Atlanta Brave is now on tape. It was a good season, but highly erratic. I’d still rather have him than William Contreras or Shea Langeliers, I think, but the decision doesn’t look quite as lopsided as it did around June. He’s still on the path to be the second-best Murphy in Atlanta history.
Posting this here too, as I doubt too many people will see it where I responded to AAR’s post in the last thread about Andrelton retiring.
The YouTube video Andrelton Simmons – Defensive Highlights – 2013 is twenty-five minutes long. Twenty-five minutes.
The Hall of Fame case for Andrelton is, basically, the case that Cleveland homers unconvincingly tried to make for Omar Vizquel. I don’t think he’ll make it but I don’t think Cooperstown would be diminished by his presence, only enhanced. If there’s room for Mazeroski, there’s room for him.
Also posting here, in case anyone wants to comment on these thoughts:
As time goes on, I am becoming more convinced of what I suspected after the Lopez signing and rumors he would start. AA would like to have an ace starter, but he’s not going to overpay for one, and he sees the market inefficiency in the relative price of reliever to starter. As Rob Copenhaver has been harping on, paying a lot for a deep starting rotation is a good way to win 100 games, but it’s not necessarily the best way to win in the playoffs. Our bullpen is already deep, but I won’t be surprised to see AA make his big splash with another relief arm. You don’t need Lopez to pitch 6 innings if you have an 8-deep bullpen full of flame throwers. The impact that a Josh Hader could make in a playoff series is greater than a #3 starter who could pitch 6 innings to a 4.5 ERA. We also have a couple of TJ wildcards in Ynoa and Anderson who could add some depth.
It’s sort of like the DePodesta character in Moneyball who said you don’t need to buy players–you need to buy runs. We don’t need to buy a great pitcher as much as we need to buy innings of run prevention. Three relievers signed for a collective $25 million can get you 210 innings of sub-3 ERA. Try getting that from a starter for the same price.
The Braves are not going to sign Hader. They likely won’t sign any top free agent. The bullpen is already one of the best in baseball. There is nothing the Braves could add that would be as impactful (WPA) as a top SP. Using projections from FG, there are only a few that could have a real impact. Cease, Bieber, Montgomery, Snell, Imanaga. Maybe Giolitto or Strohman but that is more iffy. I would like to see Giolitto on a one year make-good contract. I think a trade for either Bieber or Cease is the most likely path (Blackburn?).
P.S. The only potential I see among RP is a one year deal for Chapman (ala Kenley).
Curacao puts out some mighty fine ballplayers. Druw, Simba and Ozzie brought me hours of enjoyment. Who knew baseball was a Dutch game?
Well there goes Giolito for a lot more cash than I anticipated, roughly $40/2. Makes Charlie Morton look like a steal.
I don’t mean that I think the Braves are going to sign Hader–just sort of using him as an example of how you could make a splash in the pen and move to a more bullpen-heavy approach. Hader reportedly wants more than $100/5, and for a guy who hasn’t shown he can pitch 2 innings, that is a no.
What I am envisioning is more multi-inning hard throwing relievers and less emphasis on starters. That’s a lot of money for Giolito given he will probably give you 160 innings of a 4.5 ERA. If you think that is the best use of $20 million, I don’t know what to tell you. Yes, at the end of the day, you have to account for the 1500 innings, but there are options about how you do that if you’re not locked into a 5-man rotation where each starter is expected to go 5 innings or more each time.
I was never advocating paying that much for Giolitto. I think the Red Sox will be disappointed. At this point, AA has to wait out the market and see what’s available at a lower cost. I still think there aren’t any relievers that can move the needle over what we have. Other than Chapman (or Hader), I’d challenge anyone to name one. Hicks is a hard thrower but he doesn’t know where it’s going to go. If he did, he would not be available.
I also don’t think there are many SP that will be a big needle mover over what we have. Anyone we sign has to be better than any of Elder, Ynoa, AJSS, Waldrep, I. Anderson, Vines, Lopez, etc… I assume that Ynoa and Lopez are best bets in the pen and Elder will be 4th SP and the rest will battle for 5th (or travel the Gwinnett shuttle). As trade candidates, Cease and Bieber (maybe Blackburn, but that’s iffy). As FA, Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga (maybe Stroman).
Our best bets for bullpen games are Ynoa and Lopez.
Thanks, JonathanF. Has anyone seen anything that might explain the dramatic drop off in his second half? Nagging injury perhaps? I don’t recall anyone with such a large in season split.
Is it more likely that NL pitchers figured something out and Murphy did not adjust?
I was surprised that he was so successful because he swings like Andrelton Simmons. Next year it will become clear just how much we gave up for a glove-first catcher as Contreras surpasses him offensively and defensively.
His BABIP was noticeably lower in the second half (.182) than it was in the first half (.294). A lot of his batted balls just weren’t falling in for hits.
It’s also worth noting that Murphy suffered from some major xwOBA underperformance, particularly in September (underhitting his xwOBA by .100). His quality of contact was still decent during this stretch, even if the results just weren’t there.
Ultimately, most of his underlying metrics (which are more predictive in nature) were solid even during the second half. This, combined with the fact that he’s been an above average hitter who’s never ended a season with a wRC+ below 100, means there’s no reason to expect that he won’t continue to be a productive hitter (not to mention his stellar defense).
So Chris Sale, huh?
AA is entertaining, if naught else. Who’da thunk it?
I had a sneaking suspicion the “we love Vaughn” stuff was a smokescreen. I hope the rental’s worth it.
I honestly wouldn’t have imagined this particular trade. I do like the acquisition in a vacuum, but it nauseates me that it amounts to selling Grissom for $17 million in salary relief. They would’ve given him away if we’d paid his whole salary.
It’s that salary relief PLUS not going over the next competitive balance tax tier which saves more $ and keeps draft position AND keeps the international pool from getting dinged, while getting what might be a top-tier starter with a team option for 2025.
I have been the high man on evaluating Grissom round these parts and it looks like a good trade for both teams from here.
Remember we only really need Chris Sale for 25-30 innings in October 🙂
I sure hope that Sale can stay healthy for a change.
As usual AA surprises all of us. As I understand it, the Sox gave back 17 million of the 27 mill salary, plus most of the remaining 10 is deferred.
I think the Braves didn’t have the prospect capital to get Cease or any other top of the rotation starter.
Sale is a shell of his former self but if healthy (big if!!) he is a very serviceable 4th starter.
Hate to lose Grissom but he didn’t have a position in ATL for the foreseeable future.
It’s tough to lose Grissom but he can’t play the infield and his AAA numbers are less impressive considering the International League averaged 5.5 runs per game last year. This team is set up so well for the rest of the decade that I don’t mind a risky win-now trade like this even if it’s probably a small overpay. This move is for October, not April – September
So Chris Sale? Fair to say I did not see that coming. Like what everyone else says, if he can stay healthy, especially for October, that’s a pretty good acquisition.
I wonder now if our offseason is done. But AA has been making plenty of random moves, so I wouldn’t put it past him to make more trades.
I will begrudgingly concede this is not intolerable.
He is also the Morton-replacement unit. I admit I don’t much like Sale but it is logical. And totally unexpected.