Friends, it’s over, and I am without speech or words! The Atlanta Braves dropped Game Four to Philly in Philadelphia last night. For the second straight year, the Philthies eliminated the Braves, and 2023 is over.
Braves killers Bryce Harper and Trea Turner did what they always seem to do, which is not surprising. But Nick Phricking Castellanos launching bomb after bomb? Well, I think that’s a good indication that this isn’t gonna be your year. I mean, even his son was surprised (see the featured image above).
Let’s have a look
Since I have no speech, allow these images to speak for me.
The image on the left is the hanging slider that Castellanos hit 404 feet at a blistering 108.3 mph off the bat. The middle image is Turner’s 403 ft bomb, a slider that he hit 103.9 mph. And the image on the right is the final blow in a 3-1 Philthy win. Castellanos launched a 100 mph fastball 415 ft., this time 112.4 off the bat. He had four chances and finally caught up the the fastball.
This postseason, Turner has an OPS of 1.455. He came into the game 0-for-17 against Spencer Strider and went 3-for-3 before Strider exited after 5.2 innings. Castellanos has a 1.440 OPS this postseason. Harper has a measly 1.380 OPS, and Brandon Marsh has a 1.043 OPS so far. And oh, yeah, JT Realmuto has a .969 OPS this postseason.
Another look
On the other hand, check out this image. The image on the left is the ball that Ronald Acuña Jr. hit to end the seventh inning, leaving the bases loaded. Note the foul balls on pitches six four and six. On the right is a pitch to Matt Olson in the eight inning. It is one of the few pitches that any Braves hitter saw in the middle of the zone in Game Four – and he did nothing with it. The Braves did nothing to force Suarez to work up in the zone, swinging at pitches on their shoe-tops much of the night. And, when they did find one in the middle of the zone from a Philly pitcher, they barreled it into the ground.
This, friends, is the tale of the tape. Austin Riley hit .353 with an OPS of 1.059, including two home runs in this series. His fourth inning homer gave Atlanta the lead from about 195 seconds, 1-0. Unfortunately, no other Braves hitter had an OPS over .625, except for Travis d’Arnaud, who homered in Game Two.
Philly beat the Braves at their own game in this series. As hard as it is to say, they deserve our respect. They out-homered the Braves, 11-3, and out-pitched us, too!
I’m not a great loser because I agree withthe old adage goes, “Show me a good loser and I will show you a loser.” But I guess I am glad it’s over. Philly owns Max Fried and it would have been miserable to be eliminated at home.
Curiosity killed the cat
I think that’s a phrase, and I don’t really like cats, so I will be plenty curious to see what AA does before the first of the year. I am too bummed to do any speculating today, but suffice it to say we need a couple off starting pitchers who can shove and a left-field solution for 2024.
While I am without speech that the season is over, I do want to say it has been a blast hanging out with the Braves Journal family this season. I’m so glad I got to do it!
You hang ’em, they bang ’em. Can’t live middle-in.
And our problem all series long was when they would hang ’em, we didn’t bang ’em. Sigh…
Thanks Christian, and thanks everybody.
Yes, Christian, thanks for your great work this season. We’ll get ‘em next year!
Yes, thank you everyone, this season was one of the most fun and you all did a beautiful job recapping and commenting. Thank you, Ryan, thank you, everyone.
We’ll get them next season. Go Braves!
Schultz and Bowman predictably taking shots at RAJ
I haven’t looked at pitch charts, but from watching the games I got the strong impression that the Phillies hung a disproportionately small number of pitches. Their pitchers kept making pod pitch after good pitch. It is true that when they did hang ‘em we failed to bang em.
Hey, I’m a longtime lurker but a new poster. Thanks to everyone here for doing the writeups and providing interesting commentary. I’m an Atlanta sports lifer–I even pull for the Falcons. I’ll be back next year, still hoping we can make magic again. For now, I’ll see if Desmond Ridder can string together a couple of performances where he looks like a league-average QB. That would be interesting.
One thing I want to say is that the Phillies being built for the postseason narrative is a bit overblown. Trea Turner was abysmal for the Dodgers in the NLCS against us. He was tremendous this year. The idea they went out and got guys who could perform in October is a lot of people applying favored explanations to perceived patterns. Turner shows that there is a whole lot of variance involved. Their bullpen is certainly good for postseason, but it has nothing to do with why they beat us twice.
Wait, the Phillies’ bullpen has “nothing to do” with them winning? That bullpen group is definitely shaky, but I’d argue they still played a collective role
In terms of fiscal approach, the Phillies are also a team that’s constructed rather differently from the Braves.
For example, they have $964 M invested in 5 players… 2 guys w/ $300M contracts & 3 w/ $100M+ — all free agents over 30 years old. (If you wanna add Schwarber, that’s $1.04 B to 6 FAs.) That doesn’t always work for every team, of course, but it certainly has for them in the short-term.
FWIW, they’ll be paying Harper until 2032 & Turner until 2034 — both are 30 now. It’s somewhat analogous to the ’09 Yanks — whatever they do win, they’ll be paying for it for a long time.
It could be argued that with the short leash Liberty Media had on the Braves that AA didn’t have a choice but to avoid hugely expensive Ted Turner-ish free agent signings, in any case.
I am not usually a pessimist but I was afraid this would happen. The layoff didn’t help, but the problem all year has been that we didn’t have enough reliable starting pitching. It is trite to say that the playoffs are low scoring but maybe it is trite because it is true.
I have been a Braves fan since 1966 and I won’t give up now, but I sure hope we get another starting pitcher or two.
Jeff Schultz (I know) has an article in the Athletic that seems to argue that the Braves have no leadership without Freddie and Dansby. If Dansby is so important, why did the same thing happen last year, and if Freddie is so important, why did the Dodgers get swept by Arizona? He also blames Ronald for not wanting to talk to the press last night. Right….
https://theathletic.com/4959270/2023/10/13/atlanta-braves-phillies-nlds-playoff-flop/
Freddie’s not the all-encompassing clubhouse leader in LA that he was here. And Ronald may not want to talk to the media, but it’s his job, and the fact that he blew it off speaks pretty ill of his leadership skills.
Look, this playoff no-show act happened once out of four years under Freddie’s captaincy, or whatever you wanna call it, and I think calling 2019 a no-show is pretty questionable (even though I just did). It’s happened both years since. Dismissing it out-of-hand is silly.
This sounds familiar….
Oh yeah. I suggested the same thing two weeks ago and got poo-poo’ed by the veterans of the site. With the same counter-argument of “what have they done since?”
We know what those two were to US. We can’t pay up. Even if we look down on teams like the Phillies for “buying” their mega-stars, the Braves immaturity was glaring against them last week.
The series loss lies squarely with Snitker, Alex A. and Braves management. If you watched the season series finale against the Nationals, then you knew it was coming and was quite predictable. Maybe someday teams will realize they have to step it up in September, as that is the key to winning in October. Our Braves spent the last series of the season taking at bats away from Harris, Olson, Acuna, and Arcia, and giving them Forrest Wall, Luke Williams, Nicky Lopez, and Kevin Pillar, while making no real attempt to win games. Combine that with a few extra days off for the bye and it’s no surprise the Braves were shut out in game one (for the first time like a year. Not coincidence and not due to Phillies pitching). This is a very easy fix, but I am skeptical the Braves will ever do it, and the results will never change. The Astros, the only top-two seed to advance, actually had to play real games the last weekend of the season to secure the bye. The Braves took a vacation, landed in a hot LZ, and were overrun before they could even get their bearings. When we went down 1-0 in the series it was already over. Our hitters could not find a groove and were playing from behind in a panic. A five-game series was not enough time to re-learn game speed pitching. It’s not MLB’s fault and it’s not the fault of the new playoff format. Teams who take their foot off the gas in September will always make a quick exit in October. That’s my $.02. Everyone, have a nice off season. Hoping for an 88-win team next year and second in the NL East. Gunning it when you’ve already wrapped up the division is too taboo for baseball managers, and they don’t want to rock the boat. That’s just not what you do. Hey sounds like moneyball. Again.
I suspect Ronald blowing off the media has more to do with the Arcia thing than the fact that the team was just eliminated and embarrassed. And while Arcia is an idiot, I can empathize.
When there’s an established understanding that some conversation is off the record, that is sacrosanct. I’m sort of surprised Alex, as a media guy (correct?), hasn’t dropped in to speak on this. I’m not at all surprised to see people’s general media illiteracy getting in the way of understanding the violation of trust that took place.
And by the way, the reporter who leaked Arcia’s comment is a Phillies fan. No team except maybe the Phillies is going to welcome that guy into a clubhouse ever again; obviously, he doesn’t care.
Anyhow, Ronald and Arcia are close. The players don’t have much recourse here except to send a message to reporters everywhere by holding all of them publicly accountable. Except for Strider, they seemed pretty pissy with the media after Game 3. And their most celebrated player denied them access after Game 4.
So, in a totally counterintuitive way, Ronald is showing leadership! He’s accepting damage to his own reputation in order to stick up for his teammate. The reporters, like Peanut, selfishly will exploit the public’s lack of understanding of these dynamics to criticize Ronald, even though Peanut almost certainly knows Ronald’s true intent. This will make Ronald angrier. And the cycle will continue.
Which is fine. I’m ready for Heel Ronald after the end to this season. I don’t think the rest of baseball will be ready, though.
Some journalists say it’s a grey area: if it’s not directed towards me or a microphone, it’s not for me to report, but it’s not a written rule. Others have said Arcia was having his fun during postgame locker interviews, in earshot of TV cameras, etc., so it was his fault for not waiting until media were absent.
Regardless, I think they gave it too much extra oxygen after Harper’s antics during Game 3. They should have no commented it and ignored it.
Yeah, no question, the team handled the whole thing badly from a PR perspective. Arcia should’ve known better to begin with.
But lol, of course journalists would say it’s a grey area! I bet their sources uniformly think it’s pretty black and white. And this stuff is rarely written down anyway. You just come to an understanding and abide by it.
Hahahaha this whole theory that the media played an outsize role in the series outcome is suspect. God forbid you give the Phils any credit for winning the games they did. Especially not their game 3 response after a uniquely crushing loss. They suck. The Phillies didn’t win this series, the Braves lost it. And the media helped facilitate that. And everyone from Philadelphia including their roster is ignorant and undeserving. Right?
I hope you can untie yourself from the knot you contorted yourself into spinning that.
Ignoring the Atlanta media, who had nothing to do with Arciagate whatsoever, while leaving your teammates to answer for the loss while you’re walking out, is a funny way of showing leadership. It’s also a pretty self-absorbed way of showing leadership, since as far as I know even Arcia stood there and answered questions. So no, Occam’s razor says he just blew it off because he didn’t want to deal with it, not that it was some 4D chess way of sticking it to the media and galvanizing the clubhouse for the next time any of them see each other in four months.
The Baseball Writers’ Association defended the reporter, who, again, broke an off-the-record agreement. One of the worst things you can do as a reporter, and they defended it. On some level, that’s wild. And yet, it’s totally in their self-interest, so you’d have to expect it. That’s reason enough to send a message to all reporters. And if you really want to hold them accountable, you’ve got to deny them access to what they want the most.
To be fair, some in the media have stood up for Arcia because they know he was wronged and want to maintain the trust of their sources. I’m honestly not sure how many reporters who are actually in the clubhouse spoke up, though.
Also, in fairness, Peanut defended the substance of the Arcia comment, just not the need to maintain trust between media and players by keeping your word.
I don’t know who said anything about galvanizing the team for four months from now. I’m just saying, I expect Ronald will be plenty motivated.
24 hours to think about it. Still very disappointed. Not at all surprised. But disappointed. We are NOT the better team, regular season records be damned. They have better starters. A better bullpen. A lineup that takes balls and swings at strikes (for the most part – better than we did at least). For all the worry about our pitching, we gave up 3, 4, 3, and went 1 and 2 in those games. Those all have to be wins. The playoff format gave us a HUGE break in that we had off days galore in the first part of the series, allowing us to pitch Strider twice and Fried twice (in theory). Can you imagine this team having to scrap together a game where the 4th starter has to go? Yikes. It’s not the pitching though. 3, 4, 3 should be three wins and we’re moving on.
So, the offense…I dunno. Maybe I need to let some more time pass… but I can’t. I’m still pissed. You CANNOT go up there with selfish pull-only-swing-at-everything hero-ball approaches in the postseason. The Yankees showed us the recipe in the 90s. The Phillies and Ranger Suarez keep teaching clinics on it each October lately. And this team either refuses to stop being me-first selfish…OR…this team and the entire coaching staff and analytics department are all just fucking stupid. Not sure which. Not sure it even matters. Ugh.
The dugout shots of Arcia playing grabass with Phillies fans. The smiles and cutting-up in the late innings as we headed towards the exits. I just…can’t. I don’t want to see Arcia or Ozuna in a Braves uni next year. The rest I’ll give a pass to I guess. We’re a young team still. A dumb team, but a young team.
I am very sympathetic to your reasoning here and I have maintained that trying to pull Sterling Hitchcock’s slop off the plate was what made him 1998 NLCS MVP. But those images Christian posted show why the Phillies out-homered is. Strider made not one mistake in those images but 7 and 3 of them got hit out. Pumping fastballs down the middle to one of the league’s best fastball hitters is a recipe for losing.
Now having watched the Braves for 35 years, I can attest that there has never been a specific emphasis on getting on base. The theme of “selective aggression” has been present for decades, and I do agree in principle. You need to try to hit the ball hard and pick good pitches to do that on. But we led the league last year in swinging on 3-0. Again I agree with swinging 3-0 but not irrespective of batter and situation. Ozzie can never be trusted to do it. He will swing at a ball outside the zone every time.
We will be disappointed if we don’t want to see Ozuna or Arcia next year. Ozuna is too expensive to cut and played well enough in the regular season. He might be tradeable if the Braves paid some of his salary. They would need to get a good player in exchange though. From what I can see, the Braves have a club option in 2025. That might be an interesting decision. Arcia is cheap for how well he played. You don’t get rid of a player of his value because he made one mistake in the clubhouse. Though maybe I am more willing to give him a break because I am sick of the deification of Bryce Harper, and that base running mistake WAS brutal. I would have liked our chances in the series without Castellanos but with Harper.
Riley had a good series, but you would be hard-pressed to praise any other hitter.
Not sure about the three wins with 3,4,3 runs. Several of the playoff games’ scores were higher than that.
As you said, disappointed but not surprised. I saw our MLB Championship odds in August and said you have got to be kidding me.
I just want to know where the guy is on the team that should be telling our hitters to NOT hunt Suarez’s curveball because it’s almost never a good pitch to hit. Even if you guess right you’re not going to do much with a ball in the dirt. Take it. Hunt his fastball, lean out over the plate, drive it middle/oppo. We’ve had a bad approach against this guy for multiple seasons. Who do I blame that on? The veteran hitters on the team? Seitzer? Snit? AA? Someone needs to explain this one to me. You aren’t going to hit many homers on pitches off the plate. You’re just gonna get yourself out. Our plate discipline stats (O% / Z%) were infuriating. I’ll give all the credit in the world to their pitching for executing, but our lack of approach and lack of plan is always going to bother me.
I know nothing will change. But something kinda has to, or it’s groundhog day.