Max Fried, 7-1, 2.64 ERA, takes on 6 foot 6 Jake Irvin in the battle for… a win, I guess. The Phillies are 2 games up on the Diamondbacks for the 1st NL Wild Card spot so their games still matter. And while the Braves games don’t matter as much, the best record in the bigs is kinda important and I’m sure Brian Snitker would like to see that come to fruition.
Braves and Phillies Lineup
Travis D’Arnaud gets the start at catcher and struggling Sean Murphy gets a night of rest. When Sean Murphy rocked our world in the first half of the season, it looked as though the Braves had won the trade by a landslide. However, in the 2nd half, things have been less than good and Murphy has carried a .596 OPS since the All Star break. And yes, according to Baseball-Reference, Murphy has still been worth 3.7 WAR, but William Contreras has been worth 3.4 WAR. So, while it’s still a win for the Braves, it’s not a landslide like it looked to be in the first half.
Spencer Strider and the Cy Young
Spencer Strider is in the conversation for the Cy Young, despite the fact that he is carrying a 3.73 ERA. I’ve been battling my own Braves fans as I just can’t find a reason to even have him in the conversation of the CY when his ERA is 1.4 runs per 9 higher than Blake Snell‘s. I get the advanced metrics tell a different story, but to me, it feels like 1.4 runs per 9 is a significant difference despite what advanced metrics say.
What side of the debate are you on?
Call me old-fashioned, but yeah, Strider’s not the Cy this year. He’s certainly shown that he’s got the ability to be in the conversation for many years to come, however.
Sean Murphy is 5th in MLB in catcher framing runs, 6th in average pop time to 2B, 7th in caught stealings above average, and 1st in catcher blocks above average. TDA is notably worse in each of those categories. Not to mention the fact that Murphy has a 134 OPS+ on the season, compared to d’Arnaud’s 85.
Even when he isn’t hitting, though, Murphy’s defensive prowess should be enough to warrant him getting the majority of starts behind the plate, especially in the postseason. I’m sure they’re just trying to get him rested for October, but it’s been frustrating watching such a valuable player get so little playing time.
Strider’s stats are strikeouts and wins. Wins is a dumb category with an offense that scores 6 runs a game, so that leaves strikeouts. The strikeout leader almost always trails guys with better ERA and other metrics. Last year, Alcantara trailed Corbin Burnes by 36 Ks. Burnes finished seventh. Verlander trailed Gerrit Cole by 72 Ks. Cole finished tied for 9th.
NL Cy Young? If Blake Snell wins it, I have no problem with that.
If the ERA difference is dramatic, that’s enough to impress me. Snell & Strider have pitched almost exactly the same amount of innings (174 to 176), so a 1.4-run difference is significant. (FWIW, for Cy Young winners, I generally prefer guys who throw a lot of innings.)
Still… surely, as long as he avoids injury, Strider should be a top hurler for the near future. Just for fun, I’d like to see him get 2 more wins & end up w/ 20.
A decent breakdown of the NL CY race (from 9/16) on mlb.com:
http://www.mlb.com/news/2023-nl-cy-young-award-race-breakdown
I haven’t been able to watch any of the Phillies games but wonder if the announcers have said anything about Cristian Pache. He’s hitting better this year (.266/.338/.500), though in only 72 PA and partially fueled by a .333 BABIP. That would be at least somewhat interesting for a 24-year-old with the great CF defense we were told he featured, but most of his appearances this year (though not most of his innings) have been in LF rather than CF. It looks like most of his appearances are as a defensive replacement, but if he’s that good of a CF, I’d think they would put him in CF and move Marsh to LF. Marsh has played a bit of LF and RF as well as CF this year and doesn’t have outstanding range factors, so I’m guessing that Pache’s defense isn’t all that impressive any more. Have the announcers said anything?
Not sure about that, but wow Kyle Schwarber has a dWAR of -2.9
I think Jake Irvin might not be the Cy Young Award winner this year either.
Strider Cy would be a travesty, but I still root for him because I’m a homer. Snell or Steele should get the nod.
Interesting that Patrick Corbin has a 5.00 ERA and that puts him 42nd in all of MLB in ERA. Of course, that’s because only 47 pitchers qualify with 1 inning pitched per game played.
I like our chances up 5-0 with Fried on the hill.
I hope we get the Nationals in the playoffs instead of the Marlins or Phillies.
From here at Nationals Park, I gotta say, it’s a pretty good team we’ve got.
I was at the game. The Braves were impressive. The five-run third just broke the Nationals’ backs; when the umpires overturned the double play, the game was basically over. Ozzie was clearly the player of the game with his four hits, four RBI, two runs, and 8 TB, if anything, though, the Braves should have scored a lot more. They left 13 men on; they were 6-for-23 with RISP. Fried’s command got shaky in the fifth, and Stephens was wretched.
The last half of the game was pitched by Cory Abbott of the Nats, a guy who was brought in as cannon fodder but who achieved much better results than their starter despite less juice on his fastball, perhaps because the outcome of the game was never really in doubt from the third inning onwards. Amazingly, I walked away from a 10-3 shellacking thinking that the Braves could’ve done much better than they did.
Fried goes on 15-day IL for a blister on his finger.
Get well soon, Max. We’re really gonna need you.
Aw, hell.
Not sweating it. Keep in mind that Vines was scratched yesterday, which suggests that this whole sequence was planned.
This is the balance between giving the blister time to heal completely and letting Fried see enough live hitters to stay as sharp as possible.
Or take it from Peanut: https://x.com/mlbbowman/status/1705231820810260530?s=46&t=WMp-R43qVDAAYQabu6FJhw
Christian’s recap is up.