For many advanced metric sites, the 2023 Braves have the loftiest of projections, with many ranking them to be the team with the most wins in the 2023 season. While that projection scares the Dickens out of me, I don’t think it’s too far off. With the newly balanced schedule, the Braves, Mets, and Phillies won’t be able to beat up on each other and suppress each other’s wins, and I’m sure that’s why those 3 teams are expected to win a bunch of games.
However, what areas are the Braves at the tippity-top and which are in the back of the top-10?
In this series, we will look at Fangraphs projections for the team in every facet to see what checks out…or not. Today’s piece will focus on the Braves Starting Pitching.
Braves Starting Pitching Projections
According to Fangraphs, the Braves have the 6th best Starting Pitching rotation in all of baseball behind (in order) the Yankees, Brewers, Rangers, Mutts, and Phaillies.
While Fangraphs always keeps their projections conservative, the Braves SP staff’s expected fWAR total is 14.1. Here’s a breakdown for each player’s fWAR:
- Max Fried, 3.5
- Spencer Strider: 3.5
- Charlie Morton, 2.5
- Kyle Wright, 2.5
- Mike Soroka, 0.9
- Ian Anderson, 0.6
- Bryce Elder, 0.5
- Jared Shuster, 0.2
- Kolby Allard, 0.1
Breakdown: Fried carried a 5.0 fWAR last year, Strider, who should be considered the Braves 2nd starter, put up 4.9 in 131.2 innings. While I’m not going to get on my high horse, I believe both will surpass their projections. Both for Morton and Wright seem accurate, but I think there’s 1/2 fWAR up or down for both pitchers. From there, the spectacles get foggier. Both Soroka and Ian are hyper-focusing on their weaknesses. For Soroka, it’s a new delivery to offset pressure on the achilles. For Ian, it’s pitch development. The last 3, it’s just been too much up and down and not enough results to formulate a real projection, so it’s just throwing at a dartboard. Barbecue Sauce.
I think there’s room for this starting staff to rank anywhere from 3 to 10 based on health. If one of Fried or Strider have to sit for an extended period, there aren’t guys to replace their production. If Wright, Soroka, or Ian go down, there likely isn’t a major impact to the staff. So…what do I think about the ranking? I’d say it’s an accurate assessment.
The biggest issue for the Braves rotation — like it is for, I guess, every single staff in baseball — is going to be health. I loved what Strider said recently, that ending the season the way he did, as unfortunate as it was, was probably helpful because it helps him focus on exactly where to improve, how to get better at staying healthy. Still, last year both he and Kyle Wright pitched a ton more innings than ever before.
Fried is a horse, of course, but he’s never thrown 200 innings and had a concussion last year; Charlie Morton is consistent, but already 39 years old, etc. I think a bunch of those guys could outperform expectations (as could Elder, Anderson, and Soroka, of course) but it always makes sense to be conservative with pitching projections.
Off topic, but here’s a 20-minute video the team produced about Michael Harris.
Harris is incredibly low-key — I’d guess that he’s learned a lot of the standard “be boring” media training given to young baseball players — but it’s nice to see the team really putting an effort behind making him a star. Obviously, both the team and the league have a huge interest in Michael becoming a popular player throughout the league, because of the decline in African-American players and the general concern that multisport high school athletes are likely to choose football or basketball over baseball, given how long it takes to get from the minors to the majors (and the huge athletic scholarship disparity).
Also, it’s really cool to see Marquis Grissom and Marvin Freeman give their interviews. I love seeing them continue to be so involved in baseball.
I’m struck by how similar Dansby Swanson and Michael Harris II’s stories are — they grew up in Atlanta in athletic families, where both parents played sports. Grew up loving Atlanta teams, praised in the minor leagues for off-the-charts makeup, came to the majors at a very young age, showed poise and professionalism. Like I wrote earlier this offseason, “I have nearly limitless confidence in his ability to adjust.”
An interesting piece on “bat fitting” featuring Austin Riley. I am very surprised that this has not been a thing until a couple years ago apparently.
https://theathletic.com/4164755/2023/02/10/mlb-personalized-bats-austin-riley-marrucci-sports/
Oh man that piece is so cool. Thanks, Timo!
Really, that’s the kind of piece worth the subscription
My experience is that The Athletic is the best sports journalism since Grantland’s heyday.
Yes, that’s right, though that’s partly due to there just being so little good stuff anywhere else.
Who broke the site?
Super Bowl Sunday, man…
Rooting for the Chiefs, but think the Eagles have too much pass rush.
Not pulling for either team, but surrounded by eagles fans. I think Philly wins by multiple scores.
Objectively, one team is a juggernaut, and the other has Patrick Mahomes.
To the extent I care about any of it, I gotta root for the kid.
I’m a lot more excited about pitchers and catchers reporting this week than I am about the superb owl.
SAME.
Wow, helluva good game.
Delicious, delicious Philly tears.
Really good seasons from the Phils & Eagles, but yeah… particularly tough endings.
I thought it was a good game but could’ve been a great game if not for that holding call at the end. Anticlimactic ending. Glad for Philly to lose though.
Now on to baseball season! College starts Friday.
It was kind of a perfect ending, actually.
Philly folk will now forever bitch, which is what they do best.
New thread.
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2023/02/13/braves-fangraphs-rankings-catching/