I’m sure Collin McHugh isn’t the guy I was most wrong about — God help me, I was guardedly excited about Hector Olivera, and I hated Anthopoulos’s work during the 2018-2019 offseason, before we won the division again — but he’s the kind of pleasant surprise about whom I’m excited to eat crow.
In the offseason, I was stoked:
McHugh seems like a terrific pickup and the exact kind of low-risk medium-ceiling commitment that AA loves making. He has a career K/BB of 3.5, and from 2017-2021 heâ€™s started 27 games and thrown another 115 in relief with a 142 ERA+ and a 3.30 FIP and golly, itâ€™s hard to get a guy like that for just 2 years and $10 million.
Two months later, I was ready to put him in a Nermal-shaped box with postage paid to Abu Dhabi:
Collin McHugh has just been awful. I may be jumping the gun here, but sometimes a signing doesnâ€™t work out, and Iâ€™m not really comfortable with this guy getting any more meaningful innings. Heâ€™s close to Tomlin territory for me.
That particular rant came after he gave up two runs in a 4-1 loss to the Marlins on May 28. It was his 17th game, and he had yielded nine runs in 18 innings. But his 4.50 ERA was roughly two runs higher than his 2.56 FIP. Sample sizes: they’ll get ya every time!
So, what happened the rest of the year was simply water finding its level. He had a 1.93 ERA from then on, completing his campaign with a 2.60 ERA and a 2.71 FIP, twirling 69 1/3 innings across 58 appearances, recording 17 holds. He was a rubber-armed bridge who went more than an inning in over 40% of his games, while also being one of the pen’s most reliable setup men.
He was, in short, even better than he was supposed to be, and all at Costco prices: $4 million in 2022, $5 million in 2023, and if he’s still good next year, the Braves can decide between paying him $6 million in 2024 or buying him out for a cool million. As Rob noted, he was the biggest pen pickup before Jansen, and a critical glue guy as the Braves had to retool the staff on the fly amid Jackson’s injury and Matzek’s postsurgery ineffectiveness.
McHugh turns 36 next June, and he’s a righty with a low-90s fastball, so the margin of error for him is pretty thin. After all, that’s why the Braves were able to sign him for roughly one-quarter the annual value of Jansen’s contract.* Given the inherent volatility of relievers, it’s hard to say for sure that he’ll post another sub-3.00 FIP. (I was also wrong about Jake Odorizzi this year â€” in the exact other direction!)
But like I said when AA picked Collin up, the risk-reward ratio is still pretty great.
I was wrong about you, Collin. Glad you’re coming back next year.
* I’m glad the Braves signed Jansen, as I have an irrational proprietary feeling about ballplayers who grew up in Curacao, just like I do about ballplayers who grew up in Georgia: I sort of feel like any good player from Curacao or Georgia ought to play on the Braves. This offseason, the Braves could kill two birds with one stone by signing Jurickson Profar as a superutility player and Bogaerts at shortstop; Xander grew up in Aruba, also in the Netherlands Antilles, just like Chadwick Tromp. By my count, they are nearly the only good Antillean players never to play for the Braves, with the exception of Jonathan Schoop (and maybe Sidney Ponson). Other than that, the Braves have rostered everyone else of note: Andruw, Andrelton, Ozzie, and Kenley, of course, as well as Jair Jurrjens, Randall Simon, and now Tromp. So, you know, it’d be kind of neat.
This Ohio St/Northwestern game is hysterical.
They’re playing in a squall. Nobody can pass or kick, so it’s like a high-school junior-varsity game.
How about my alma mater defeating Arkansas?!
Quite a performance.
Soler’s three-run shot was better.
Fitting end. Philly had nine hits over the final three games, two of which were solo shots. The bus ran out of gas.
Alabama going for 2 and missing it in regulation for the 2nd time in a row against LSU was one of the dumbest calls in the Saban area. It meant a touchdown put LSU up by 3 instead of 2 and Bama’s field goal only tied it. Even if LSU went for 2 and made it (because Bama kicked an extra point), it would have forced them to use their best 2 point play in regulation.
There’s a lot of game theory about just not taking guaranteed points that I’m not totally sure are the right calls. There’s a clear route to Florida beating Tennessee this year if Florida just kept taking points throughout the game instead of going for it on 4th down and going for 2 after touchdowns. I feel like you take the points until there’s a clear route to victory, and then you go for additional points, like LSU did last night.
This is a little bit like the debate here locally about whether Kevin Cash should have pulled Blake Snell after 75 pitches in the World Series a couple years ago. I feel like every now and again these coaches get a little too cute and a little too analytical.
Just a random thought.
Anyway, how about LSU? They’ve gone from losing to FSU, getting boatraced at home to UT to beating an improving Florida on the road, Ole Miss, and now Bama. Few LSU fans thought they’d go 2-1 in that stretch, let alone 3-0. Some LSU fans probably thought LSU might have gone 0-3.
Rankings are probably Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and… TCU? I dunno. Weird, wild stuff.
Alabama’s problems begin and end with poor defense. In both the Tennessee and LSU games one good stop on defense would win it. I don’t think Bama has had a decent defense since Kirby left. Pruitt was OK but Golding is a disaster. The talent is there but the scheme seems to be terrible. I’ll bet the talent levels between GA and Bama are about the same but GA’s defense is so much better.
Bryce and the offense has done everything necessary to win but the defense gives it away.
I think Bama’s two coordinators are below average at best. O’Brien has the best qb in the nation, 3 solid running backs and a host of 5 star linemen. They cannot run the ball up the middle to save their life. As you note, defense is suspect despite having a load of talent. Their pass rush is non-existent when it is needed most. Georgia proved the importance of a good pass rush against Tennessee.
Otoh, Kelly has done a great job at LSU. They are more disciplined than any LSU team I’ve seen in a long time.
So Atlanta got Sam Hilliard from Colorado. He looks like minor league filler – at least I hope so.
@12 I think he may be competition for Heredia as defensive replacement on the bench. A defensive wiz with a smidge of power. And he’s younger than Heredia.
Whew. For a moment there, after the discussion of LSU, I thought we’d gotten Dalton Hilliard.
Steve Cohen really out here saying he don’t care about any luxury tax
Cohen is playing within a different set of boundaries, but $100M for a reliever is objectively insane.
New thread. The last of its kind.