The Braves' newly acquired first baseman, Matt Olson, is all smiles as he is introduced by general manager Alex Anthopoulos during a press conference at CoolToday Park in Nort Port, Fla., on March 15. (Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com)

I’ve been dreaming about this tweet since August…

And the, new insight that’s actually recent…

I have reason to believe that both Mark and McGuirk aren’t blowing smoke and the proof has been in AA’s pudding all year.

Braves 2022 Extensions

  1. March 16th: Matt Olson extended, 8 years, $168MM
  2. August 1st: Austin Riley extended, 10 years, $212MM
  3. August 16th: Michael Harris extended, 8 years $72MM
  4. September 30th: Charlie Morton extended, 1 year $20MM
  5. October 10th: Spencer Strider extended, 6 years, $75MM

Breakdown: Between the extensions that occurred during the 2022 season, the already in place extensions of Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., Orlando Arcia, Travis d’Arnaud and the contracts of Marcell Ozuna, Raisel Iglesias, Eddie Rosario, Kirby Yates, Collin McHugh, and Manny Piña, the Braves have already committed to $160MM of guaranteed money to 15 players. That doesn’t take into account arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligible Players

(only listing players I think they’ll consider keeping)

  1. Arb-2, Tyler Matzek
  2. Arb-3, Mike Soroka
  3. Arb-3, A.J. Minter
  4. Arb-3 Max Fried
  5. Arb-3, Guillermo Heredia

Arbitration is tricky, but look for Fried to make some serious cash in his 3rd year, likely in the $12-15MM range. Minter likely bumps up over $4MM and Matzek around $2.5MM. Heredia might see a small bump, upwards of $1.5MM. Soroka is really tricky as he hasn’t pitched in 2 years and made $2.8MM. If anyone gets let go from this list, Heredia would be first followed by Soroka, who might not be worth the $3MM risk.

If the Braves choose to keep all of the above arb-players, they’d likely add around $20-22MM in payroll.

Pre-Arbitration Players

This is where the Braves save some $, but not as much as the league used to as pre-arb players now get paid $700K/year, a raise of $129,500/year from 2021’s minimum. There’s a big list here:

  1. Kyle Wright (Arb-eligible in 2024)
  2. Ian Anderson (Arb-eligible in 2024)
  3. Huascar Ynoa (Arb-eligible in 2024)
  4. Jackson Stephens ((Arb-eligible in 2024)
  5. William Contreras (Arb-eligible in 2026)
  6. Dylan Lee (Unknown, for now)
  7. Vaughn Grissom (Unknown, for now)
  8. Bryce Elder (Unknown, for now).

There are many more, but I’m only listing guys that played a significant amount of time in the MLB. Look for a lot of this group to ride the ups and downs between AAA and MLB, but salary will likely equal out to 5ish minimum salaries, which total $3.5MM.

The Grand Total

Factoring in $160MM in guaranteed contracts, approximately $20MM in arbitration, and $3.5MM in pre-arb players, the Braves will have around $185.5MM committed to 25ish players. If the Braves are truly committing to a top-5 payroll, factoring in inflation, $250MM would get them in the top-5.

Some Things to Think About

If you’re not following along with the Braves MILB system with my dudes Andy Harris and Matt Chrietzberg, you’re missing out. They’re not flashy like some other dudes, but I think they’re the most knowledgeable duo when it comes to our prospects (outside of David Lee, who now has a job with the Braves!). Matt had this to say about what’s happening between AAA and MLB:

This leads me into my first train of thought for the offseason.

Marcell Ozuna…More Like Marcell Nomozuna

The Braves will, once again, look to trade Ozuna this offseason and with a 2nd mark on his record, it’ll be harder than ever. However, it looks as though there could be a solution unfolding. For the foreseeable future, there’s not a whole lots that’s needed from the farm system (*this is very hard for me to admit). If one were to make their way around the horn, through the dugout, and venture out to the bullpen, you’ll essentially find am almost fully built team for at least 3-4 years. As a fan, that’s such a comfort. As a player in the minors looking to get a shot in the bigs? Forget about it. You’re looking to get traded and get a shot. As Matt shows via tweet, the Braves have a HUGE logjam at AAA in the pitching department and that logjam could pave the way to Ozuna’s departure. Even if the Braves were to attach 2-3 of the above guys in a deal, it doesn’t really affect the MLB team and opens an alleyway for the others to build innings at AAA, prepping for the show. For this year and at least next year, available funds is more important than AAA pitching depth. Teams like the Diamondbacks and the Rockies, who have a hard time luring free agent pitchers, would be my target. I don’t think AA could get out of the whole contract, but $10MM each year sure would be nice and would give the Braves nearly $80MM to reach the $250MM

Rollin’ in it

If there’s $80MM to spend, there’s money to buy 2 superstars. Jacob DeGrom? Dansby Swanson? Carlos Correa? Trea Turner? Carlos Rodon? Kenley Jansen? Edwin Diaz? Adam Ottovino? David Robertson? The possibilities are there and the Braves should have the resources to spend big on 2.

A reunion after a reunion after a reunion

Yes, the Braves are rolling in it, but will still have to budget shop should they want to fill out the entire team above average production. As of now, the starting left fielder is Eddie Rosario, and while I think he’ll be fine next year after a regular offseason recovering from eye surgery, I’d still rather not have him in the field in late and close games or hitting against LHP. For my money, a reunion with Adam Duvall makes a whole lot of sense. He’s a stud defensively and hits well against LHP. And while I wouldn’t just look at him a the right side of a platoon, I think it’s important that he get rest considering his age and that he’s a Type-1 Diabetic. He should be fairly cheap, too.

Remember when?

A few years back, Anthopoulos and the analytical team got together to present to Snitker the idea of changing the batting order to allow Acuna to lead off. After about a month of Acuna leading off, Snitker called himself a “dumbass” because he hadn’t done it sooner.

At this point, surely the analytical team has sufficient evidence that players need rest. On June 25th, after starting his 72nd straight game of the season, Dansby Swanson’s OPS sat at a season high of .882. From June 26th through the end of the season, his OPS was .697.

On the last day of July, Austin Riley had spent a month pulverizing the ball and raising his OPS by .120 points. In the last 2 months of the season, Riley’s OPS was .723. He played in 161 total games.

Most notable, Matt Olson started his Braves tenure on fire, with an .874 OPS at the end of April. The OPS dropped a bit, but stayed strong, sitting at .847 on August 27th. From 8/28 through 9/24, when Snitker finally decided to give him an off day, his OPS was .338. After the off day, he was really good, OPS’ing 1.311 through season’s end. That OPS increase was aided heavily by a power surge of 6 HRs.

Players are going to struggle. 162 is a LONG season. However, the Braves had the only 2 players in MLB to play all 162 and another (Riley) to finish 9th in games played with 159. If Ozzie Albies were healthy, I’d have wagered he’d also be in the top-10. While I don’t mind a regular lineup and positions, the need to rest is crucial to a season and most juggernaut franchises seem to have caught on. One way that the analytical team could convince Snitker to rest players would be by rotating the DH around the horn. If on the team, Vaughn Grissom’s versatility could come into play to give field rest to all positions in the infield and corner OF positions. If Michael Harris needs a break, Ronald Acuna Jr. can move to CF, moving Grissom to RF.