PREDICTIONS CONTEST IS HERE!!!!! Copy/paste your guesses for each category and winner will receive…something from Braves Journal. Not sure the prize yet.
AL Playoff Teams:
NL Playoff Teams:
ALCS Teams:
NLCS Teams:
World Series Matchup:
World Series Winner:
All Star Game Winning Team:
Braves All-Stars:
AL MVP:
NL MVP:
AL Cy Young:
NL Cy Young:
AL ROY:
NL ROY:
AL MOY:
NL MOY:
Braves Leader in WAR:
Braves Leader in HR:
Braves Leader in RBI:
Braves Leader in AVG:
Braves Leader in OPS:
Braves Leader in Wins:
Braves Leader in K:
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP):
Braves Leader in Saves:
Braves Regular Season Record:
Braves Bold Prediction:
Hi all. Today is Tuesday before Opening Day. If you have T-Mobile, you can sign up for a free season of MLB.TV. Do it today.
Not sure if this was already posted? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-atlanta-braves/
AL Playoff Teams: NYY, HOU, TOR, CHW, MIN
NL Playoff Teams: LAD, ATL, SDP, STL, NYM
ALCS Teams: NYY-CHW
NLCS Teams: LAD-ATL
World Series Matchup: CHW-ATL
World Series Winner: ATL
All-Star Game Winning Team: NL
Braves All-Stars: RAJ, Wizard of Ozz, Fredward, Varsity
AL MVP: Luis Robert
NL MVP: RAJ
AL Cy Young: I’m a Belieber
NL Cy Young: Fried
AL ROY: Kelenic
NL ROY: Ian Anderson
AL MOY: LaRussa’s Hateable Face
NL MOY: Snitker
Braves Leader in WAR: RAJ
Braves Leader in HR: RAJ
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Fredward
Braves Leader in OPS: RAJ
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Cyroka
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 93-69
Braves Bold Prediction: Braves win Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, MVP, Manager of the Year, and the World Series
@2 That Fangraphs list tells me our system is thinning quite a bit.
Huh?
I’d be very happy to hire him as a coach, but why give him a minor league contract?
AL Playoff Teams: NYY, White Sox, Astros Twins and Blue Jays
NL Playoff Teams: Bravos, Cards, Padres Brewers and Dodgers
ALCS Teams: NYY and White Sox
NLCS Teams: Bravos and Padres
World Series Matchup: Braves/Yankees
World Series Winner: Braves
All Star Game Winning Team: NL
Braves All-Stars: Acuna, Freeman, Albies, Fried, Will Smith and Soroka
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Acuna
AL Cy Young: Cole
NL Cy Young: deGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Anderson
AL MOY: Boone
NL MOY: Tingler
Braves Leader in WAR: Freeman
Braves Leader in HR: Acuna
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freeman
Braves Leader in OPS: Acuna
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Soroka
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 98-64
Braves Bold Prediction: The Braves win the division going away. The East turns out to be weak and the Mets have a ton of injuries. AA makes a splash at the deadline and we pick up Luis Castillo and Eugenio Suarez in July.
I drafted Drew Smyly onto my fantasy team. AA’s gotta know what he’s doing right?
I gotta say, “the Mets have a ton of injuries” is not exactly a bold prediction…
I will provide mine tonight. I’m still coming down of the euphoria of waiting for 3.5 hours in line for my first vaccination dose.
Wouldn’t want my judgment clouded.
Good to see Soroka back. 2K’s and a walk. His curveball is working.
@8 good for you, Chief!
Alex, my guess is Mathis will be a permanent member of the taxi squad.
I guess Gwinnett wanted another backup for Contreras.
AL Playoff Teams: NY, TB, CHI, Oak, Hou
NL Playoff Teams: ATL, CIN, LA, SD, Was
ALCS Teams: TB, HOU
NLCS Teams: ATL, LA
World Series Matchup: LA, TB
World Series Winner: LA
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Freddie, Ronald, Ozzie
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Soto
AL Cy Young: Garrett Cole
NL Cy Young: deGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Ian
AL MOY: Cash
NL MOY: Snitker
Braves Leader in WAR: Ronald
Braves Leader in HR: Ronald
Braves Leader in RBI: Freddie
Braves Leader in AVG: Freddie
Braves Leader in OPS: Freddie
Braves Leader in Wins: Morton
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Matzek
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 96 – 66
Braves Bold Prediction: Ender will out hit Pache.
AL Playoff Teams: NY, TB, CHW, HOU, MIN
NL Playoff Teams: ATL, STL, LAD, SDP, NYM
ALCS Teams:NYY, HOU
NLCS Teams: LAD, ATL
World Series Matchup: LAD, NYY
World Series Winner: LAD
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Acuna, Jr., Freeman, Fried, Albies
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Bellinger
AL Cy Young: Bieber
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT
AL MOY: Boone
NL MOY: Dave Roberts
Braves Leader in WAR: Acuna, Jr.
Braves Leader in HR: Acuna, Jr.
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freeman
Braves Leader in OPS: Acuna Jr.
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Chris Martin
Braves Leader in Saves: Will Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 91-71
Braves Bold Prediction: Austin Riley underachieves.
I have tickets for 4 Yankee games this April (incl. the 2 Braves games) & I think I’m going to spend more on testing before each game than I did on the actual tickets.
Call it the COVID tax (until I get vaccination #2).
Oh, and Braves beat Yankees in the WS in 6.
Austin Riley & Cristian Pache are WS co-MVPs.
AL Playoff Teams: NYY, CHW, HOU, MIN, TB
NL Playoff Teams: LAD, ATL, SDP, MIL, NYM
ALCS Teams: NYY-HOU
NLCS Teams: LAD-ATL
World Series Matchup: NYY-ATL
World Series Winner: ATL
All-Star Game Winning Team: NL
Braves All-Stars: Acuna, Freeman, Albies, Fried
AL MVP: Judge
NL MVP: Acuna
AL Cy Young: Cole
NL Cy Young: DeGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Hayes
AL MOY: Baker
NL MOY: Counsell
Braves Leader in WAR: Acuna
Braves Leader in HR: Acuna
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freeman
Braves Leader in OPS: Acuna
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Anderson
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Morton
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 94-68
Braves Bold Prediction: Inciarte hits an upper deck foul ball
AL Playoff Teams: Tampa, Twinks, Houston, Oakland, Angels
NL Playoff Teams: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Pods, Cards
ALCS Teams: Rays and twins
NLCS Teams: Braves and Pods
World Series Matchup: Braves and Twinkies
World Series Winner: The good guys
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Freddie, Ozzie, Dansby and Riley
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: RAJ
AL Cy Young: Bieber
NL Cy Young: Soroka
AL ROY: Casey Mize
NL ROY: Pache
AL MOY: Baker
NL MOY: Snitger
Braves Leader in WAR: RAJ
Braves Leader in HR: Riley
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freddie
Braves Leader in OPS: RAJ
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Soroka
Braves Leader in Saves: smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 97-65
Braves Bold Prediction: Austin Riley hits 37 dingers
My only prediction is the same one I make every year: 162-0.
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Twins and Rays
NL Playoff Teams: Braves, Cards, Padres Cubs and Dodgers
ALCS Teams: Twins and Rays
NLCS Teams: Braves and Dodgers
World Series Matchup: Braves/Rays
World Series Winner: Braves
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Acuna, Freeman, Albies, Fried, Morton
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Acuna
AL Cy Young: Glasnow
NL Cy Young: Buehler
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Carlson
AL MOY: Cash
NL MOY: Snitker
Braves Leader in WAR: Acuna
Braves Leader in HR: Freeman
Braves Leader in RBI: Freeman
Braves Leader in AVG: Acuna
Braves Leader in OPS: Freeman (by a nose over Acuna)
Braves Leader in Wins: Morton
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Soroka
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 94-68
Braves Bold Prediction: Inciarte, Riley and Camargo are not on the team by the All Star Break
538.com has the Braves at 87 wins (Mets at 88).
@19 – Of course they would. But 593.com has the Braves at 96 wins.
@19 – This is at least the fourth straight year that 538 has given the Mets a better chance to win the division than the Braves. I assume it’s just a coincidence that 538 is based in New York.
I’ve arrived safely at Dale Hollow. Too dark to get a good look at it, but I’m hearing it’s up 9 ft from what it was a week ago. There’s also apparently a debris field floating somewhere along the Obey, which we’re launching out of. Go figure.
I’ve heard the fishing has been really tough, so they ought to eat before this big cold swing. We’ll see. This hammer is ready!
Camargo looked washed out yesterday, never thought I’d say that. And not a little bewildered at times, casual at others. It’s hardly how are the mighty fallen but it still rankles. To have any hope of restoring what once was will seemingly take a new team and attitude. And a zealot therein to crack the whip.
Folty the Texan started yesterday so likely he makes the rotation. Fare thee well.
1 – This is the best opening day rotation for the Braves in a decade.
2 – There is a non-zero chance this rotation implodes.
Both of these are true, imo. Each starting pitcher has a pretty big question mark that makes them far from a sure thing.
Morton: Father time.
Fried: K’s & BB’s went in wrong direction last year.
Soroka: Back from major injury.
Anderson: Rookie.
Smyley: Heh.
The next five guys: Nobody really stepping up.
Not saying it will happen, but there’s probably like a 30% chance this rotation falls apart. Am I wrong?
@25
I don’t know how you quantify risk that a rotation “falls apart”. Could one or two guys get injured? Absolutely, especially with Morton and Smyly. Could one or two guys be ineffective? Absolutely, especially with Morton maybe having been doctoring baseballs. But I don’t think it’s likely that there is so much injury and ineffectiveness that the rotation goes from being above average to below average.
And while I’m no fan of Wright and aren’t as high on Wilson as some, I do think that they can be capable replacements if somebody went down for a couple months.
@25 – I don’t want to alarm anybody, but you could substitute Hamels, Folty, Soroka, Fried, and King Felix into those categories pretty nicely.
@25 I think it has the potential to be the Braves best rotation since the Big 3. But as you said, there are some red flags. I think Fried is close-ish to a sure thing. Soroka is as well but an Achilles can be balky.
Anderson could sophomore slump and I’m not a believer in Smyly, Wright or Wilson long or even short term.
It has the potential to be great but I suspect it will end up being good to very good, but not truly great.
There’s going to be much more in person scouting and frankly, there were teams that didn’t really even take last season seriously in a way that was unprecedented (Red Sox). More scouting, means more opportunities for SSS folks like Anderson to have the league go to school on them, etc.
The good news is that no one is expecting Ian Anderson to have a 1.95 ERA and a single-season bWAR pace of about 5-6. Anderson could get “figured out” quite a bit and still be a very respectable SP. I think you’ll be disappointed if you think Anderson duplicates his SSS.
From everything I’m reading on Anderson, it seems like he’s likely to have a pretty high floor — i.e., Jason Marquis feels like a low-end outcome. I think he could absolutely be Kevin Millwood, a bona fide workhorse #3 starter. I mean, I don’t think he’s a 2021 All-Star, but I absolutely think he could throw 150 innings with a 3.90 ERA and hold down a rotation spot all year.
Obviously, I think the sky’s the limit for Varsity and Cyroka.
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Rays, White Sox, Twins, A’s
NL Playoff Teams: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Cards
ALCS Teams: White Sox and Yankees
NLCS Teams: Braves and Padres
World Series Matchup: Padres and Yankees
World Series Winner: Padres
All Star Game Winning Team: NL
Braves All-Stars: Acuna, Freeman, Albies, Fried
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Betts
AL Cy Young: Cole
NL Cy Young: DeGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Joey Bart
AL MOY: Aaron Boone
NL MOY: Jayce Tingler
Braves Leader in WAR: Acuna
Braves Leader in HR: Acuna
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freeman
Braves Leader in OPS: Freeman
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Anderson
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Smith
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 95 – 67
Braves Bold Prediction: By the end of the season, Pache and Waters are both logging regular time in the outfield.
It will be fascinating to see how Snitker covers all the innings now that we are back to a 162 game schedule. I thought when the rotation went down last season he did a great job to realize that he had a 6 headed monster in the bullpen that could get him through 60 games. If there is such a thing as “Manager of the Year” I really thought Snitker should have been it.
But 3 or 4 innings a start won’t cut it over 162 games. Morton and Smyly are going to have to eat some innings, and it would be good to get more than 5 innings out of Fried more frequently.
Homer all the way…..
AL Playoff Teams: NY, TB, CHI, Oak, Minn
NL Playoff Teams: ATL, STL, LA, SD, NYM
ALCS Teams: NY, CHI
NLCS Teams: ATL, LA
World Series Matchup: ATL, NY
World Series Winner: ATL
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Freddie, Ronald, Ozzie
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Seager
AL Cy Young: Garrett Cole
NL Cy Young: deGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Ian
AL MOY: Cash
NL MOY: Snitker
Braves Leader in WAR: Ronald
Braves Leader in HR: Ozuna
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Freddie
Braves Leader in OPS: Freddie
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Matzek
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 98 – 64
Braves Bold Prediction: WS or bust
So, looking back, I think it’s pretty clear that the Braves underestimated Charlie Culberson’s value considering what we ended up with on the bench. True or false?
@ 34,
I would agree, except that for the sole purpose of a “temporary fill in for minor Swanson injury” that Ehire is probably a win.
@26 – I agree, my number is just a gut feel, no number-crunching analysis. I agree the potential ceiling is very high with this group. But they also have a risk of delivering a bottom-15 season for the reasons we’ve mentioned. Just a lot of volatility in this group, so the overall risk that the rotation is a turd is probably higher than we want to acknowledge.
Do I think it’s the most likely outcome? No.
Will I be in utter shock if it happens? Alas, no.
The one point I would bring up is that we actually have a fair bit of depth. Ynoa, Wright, and Wilson all strike me as perfectly cromulent 4th/5th starters.
I always forget Ynoa as a viable starter. Yeah, him too. I also think AA has probably held out a few bucks for a deadline move. If the rotation (or anywhere, really) had a significant issue, whatever the plan for this money is could be re-directed to fill that need.
I don’t really want to do the whole prediction part, but at the end of the day, this team is VERY good. I’m really excited about tuning in to see every starting pitcher every night. That wasn’t the case last year. I think this is a 95+ win team, so at worst, it’s a wild card team. I, however, am not sure we have enough talent to beat the Dodgers. I’m also afraid that I might be saying that every March 31st for the next few to several years. As currently constructed, the pen’s not good enough, and to Chief’s point, any regression or injury by the rotation will put us further behind the Dodgers. Almost everyone needs to do what they have demonstrated they can do, Riley needs to take a step forward, and some younger arms need to slide into the bullpen and throw zeroes. All of that is a tall ask, and I genuinely tip my hat to the Dodgers, a team predicted by some to win as many as 110 games. They probably repeat.
Jeff Mathis, our new 38 year old minor league catching depth at Gwinnett, better be the best defensive catcher in the history of baseball. Gotta love this:
“He is one of only 13 players in MLB history with 3000 or more plate appearances to have a career OPS of .553 or lower.”
What’s weird about Jeff Mathis is that he’s, as mentioned, 38 years old, and he’s made $21M in his career, plus probably a few extra shekels from endorsements and whathaveyou. So, why in the flyin’ hell does he need to go take a AAA catching job in Gwinnett, GA? That guy must really like putting on the gear.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bergebi01.shtml
Wow, just wow.
Chief! C’mon man. That’s not fair. His career was obviously before the huge value of pitch framing was recognized!
@41 – Compared to the rest of his career Bergen did have a pretty dominant year in 1903. I wonder if the ball was juiced.
#Braves baseball is here and @3FlagsFlying has you covered with a new podcast today! I hope you’ll enjoy it as much as we enjoyed recording it.
https://soundcloud.app.goo.gl/Lb4wuBaqXBDRBpAg8
I was really excited about the start of the season until I realized I was recapping today. I sure hope Fried is more prepared than I am.
Happy Opening Day, everybody. I guess there was an opening day last year, but it didn’t feel like it. Today feels like a huge step towards getting back to normal.
Still rather have Bill Bergen than his brother.
Happy Joe West back in our lives day!
This is always difficult but I guess I should try before the season starts…
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Twins, Astros, White Sox, Angels
NL Playoff Teams: Mets, Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Padres
ALCS Teams: Twins vs. Angels
NLCS Teams: Mets vs. Braves
World Series Matchup: Angels vs. Mets
World Series Winner: Angels
All Star Game Winning Team: AL
Braves All-Stars: Freeman, Acuna, Albies, Fried
AL MVP: Trout
NL MVP: Betts
AL Cy Young: Bundy
NL Cy Young: DeGrom
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Pache
AL MOY: Maddon
NL MOY: Rojas
Braves Leader in WAR: Freeman
Braves Leader in HR: Acuna
Braves Leader in RBI: Ozuna
Braves Leader in AVG: Albies
Braves Leader in OPS: Freeman
Braves Leader in Wins: Fried
Braves Leader in K: Fried
Braves Leader in ERA (min 60 IP): Soroka
Braves Leader in Saves: Smith
Braves Regular Season Record: 90-72
Braves Bold Prediction: Braves take Mets to game 7 of the NLCS after beating Dodgers in NLDS. Then we face DeGrom again. Ugh!
All that said, I hope by this to jinx the Mets. Let’s go Braves (and Angels…my adopted AL team because screw the rest.) Opening day…it’s all happening!
Snitker already posted the lineup. No surprises
RF Acuña
2b Albies
1b Freeman
LF Ozuna
C D’Arnaud
SS Swanson
3b Riley
CF Pache
P Fried
Go get your shots, folks.
No More Fred Coupon: Lindor gets his loot — 10 years/$341M
#41
Talk about a defensive specialist… oWAR -15, dWar 14.6
Since Bill Bergen has been brought up, a personal story from my youth —
In the late ’70s, WSB radio aired “The Quiz Kids”, a weekly call-in show where the hosts would ask and answer trivia questions from listeners (this was a locally produced show, not to be confused with the national game show of the same name). They would take on any topic, but baseball was one of their specialties. I was a frequent caller and had a decent track record, but there was a kid who went by “Casey Junior” who was just otherworldly (despite the show title, this was not primarily a show for kids…he and I were the only two non-adult sounding regular callers I remember). The hosts were routinely agog at his knowledge, and I believe he was younger than I was, to boot. I imagined myself in competition with him — a competition I was losing badly. He probably didn’t know I existed.
Anyway, one day they threw out a real stumper — who, excluding pitchers, was the worst hitter in MLB history? A couple of callers gave suggestions, but the question was never really answered to anyone’s satisfaction and they moved on. But it stuck with me. I wanted to know. So I started going page-by-page through the old Baseball Encyclopedia, not sure what my parameters were, but knowing I had to come up with a definitive answer to the hardest baseball question they’d ever asked. Should the answer be a one-year flameout with absurdly low production, or a multiyear player who never hit well?
The choice was made easy. Bill Bergen comes up fairly early in an alphabetical search, and when I saw his stat line I stared in disbelief. Any one of his seasons was among the worst of any I’d found to that point. Put them all together, and it is a litany of failure surely unparalleled in the history of the game. But, you know, who knows? I dog-eared the page and continued my quest whenever I found the time, until finally the task was complete. Bill Bergen was the worst hitter ever — I knew it, and Casey Junior didn’t. So I called The Quiz Kids and proudly unveiled the answer.
Only one problem — it had taken me over a year to do the research, and the hosts had completely forgotten they’d ever asked the question. They asked me how I came up with Bill Bergen, and I told them I’d gone through every page of the encyclopedia to find it. They were momentarily stunned, but then congratulated me on what they considered the crowning achievement in the history of Quiz Kids listeners.
So take that, Casey Junior, and go Braves!
@53 Great story, sansho1. The bar is already in opening day form. Go Braves!
It looks to be windy in Philadelphia. Does anyone know if the wind is blowing in or out tonight?
From Bergen’s SABR bio: “One afternoon, after Fort Wayne had fallen into a bases-loaded, no-out predicament, Bergen demonstrated his developing skills behind the plate by picking off all three runners….On August 23, 1909, Bergen gunned down six St. Louis Cardinals attempting to steal (for years it was reported that he threw out seven on that date, but recent research confirmed that the number was six). Despite catching only 941 games, Bergen still ranks in the all-time top 10 for career assists by a catcher. And while only seven catchers in the Hall of Fame (through the 2018 season) ever amassed as many as 100 assists in a single season, Bergen accomplished that feat in nine of his 11 major-league campaigns, failing only in 1903 and 1907, the two seasons he caught fewer than 60 games. He reached a high of 202 assists in 1909, making him one of only a handful of backstops ever to accumulate more than 200 in a season.”
So even in the dead ball ERA, to hit that badly you’d better be a damn good catcher. He was.
And of course we all know the record of his that Mark Lemke broke, right?
@52, My goodness. A triumph of perseverence!
I didn’t know the story about Marty Bergen, either.
@54, I don’t know that either! What’d Lemmer do?
It’s what he didn’t do — or, rather, what was never done to him!
Never HBP?
Yes. Lemke was never hit in 3664 plate appearances. Bergen was never hit in 3234. There is some dispute about whether Bob Ferguson, who played before Bergen, was also never hit in 3595 plate appearances, the dispute centering around whether or not HBP was a well-recorded stat in the 19th century. To be precise, Lemke broke the undisputed post-19th century record set by Bergen.
@52–great story, Sansho. The kids around here can’t comprehend researching baseball stats before the internet. I wasted countless hours in my youth poring through the Baseball Encyclopedia. Come to think of it, it wasn’t that different than today—just a different, slower, less comprehensive, and less reliable medium. But in some ways the BE was more fun, because more random.
Opening Day Game Thread!
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2021/04/01/opening-day-braves-at-phillies/