Last night was a special night for Cristian Pache as his first MLB hit, a double, and first MLB RBI came in a 1-run victory. It’s a small sample to be sure, but Pache has shown that he’s been much more patient than his minor league stats would imply and while most of his batted balls haven’t found grass (.167 avg), he’s still gotten on base at a .375 clip. I’ve also liked that he’s shown willingness to utilize the entire field and that’s serious growth for him as a hitter.
Ian Anderson Ties a Century Old Record
Ian Anderson has now logged 15 2/3 innings in the postseason without giving up a run so of course his name goes down aside Christy Mathewson, who last played in 1916, as the 2nd player in baseball history to pitch his first 3 postseason starts of 4 innings or more, without giving up a run. This kid is something special.
Mooshine Kyle takes the Ball for Game 3
Since rejoining the team on September 8th after battling some command demons, Moonshine Kyle Wright 2.0 has been a rotation revelation. Through 5 games, including 1 in the postseason, Wright has been brilliant, pitching to a 3.07 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 7.75 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9.
Braves Lineup
Not tooting my own horn, but TOOT! TOOT! as this was the alignment I thought we’d see for tonight.
7 in a row. Let’s make it 8 tonight then let Bryse Wilson (tomorrow’s announced starter) end this thing and send the Braves back to where they belong!
Bryse Wilson…
Well, I guess I’ll just let tomorrow wait till tomorrow.
Fun (?) with odds:
Using Dusty’s per-game win odds from last thread…
Game 3 Urias vs Wright (LAD 55%)
Game 4 Kershaw vs Wilson (LAD 65%)
Game 5 May vs Ynoa (LAD 55%)
Game 6 Buehler vs Fried (50/50)
Game 7 Anderson vs Gonsolin (Atl 55%)
I came up with a 76% chance that the Braves advance. Seems that other sites are giving us a marginally lower chance of victory in each game; Fivethirtyeight.com thinks we’re only 62% favorites to advance. That seems way low to me.
The betting line quoted on ESPN’s website for tonight’s game is LAD -184, meaning you’d have to bet $184 to win $100 so the implied odds of LAD victory is 184/284 = 65%. I’m not one to bet on baseball, but if I were I’d take the Braves to win at those odds.
I feel ill, I’m so nervous. Unbelievably proud and impressed of the way the team has played so far, and I think they’ve got even more in them. I agree with folks in the last thread who said this is the most enjoyable team to watch can remember (and boy, the resurgent starting pitching in the postseason is a huge part of that) and I hope we are lucky enough to see a lot more games from these blessed lads.
If we win tonight, I think we can have the luxury of giving Fried his normal rest if needed. If we lose, I think you have to consider Fried starting on short rest in Game 5. I don’t think we can afford 2 bullpen games (which Wilson’s start is likely to turn into) in a row and potentially giving LA a chance to go up on us 3-2. As in last night, when the beast is down, you have to step on their neck. Should have been Greene over Tomlin last night. Should be Fried instead of Ynoa in Game 5 if we are tied (or even sit at 3-1) in the series.
Just to be clear, if we start Fried on short rest, it’s a bullpen game. It’s unlikely he could go more than five innings and you have to be prepared to yank him after four.
I consider a bullpen game one in which each pitcher only goes one time through the order. Fried would be able to at least go through them twice if he’s on. You’re right AAR that it would become a bullpen game if he doesn’t have it.
ETA – Also, I trust a short outing by Fried much more than a short outing by Ynoa.
Bryse against this lineup is a BP session. I don’t see how we can afford to take the auto L with his start AND a bullpen game.
If this were the Empire of Japan and the Braves were to lose the series from here, Alex Anthopoulos would demand that Terry McGuirk remove his head with a sword for having failed to acquire an additional starter.
Very strange to be up 2-0 in a series and still be facing a must-win game.
Definitely feels like a must-win game tonight. If you go into game four 2-1 with Bryse Wilson starting, the Braves will blow it.
I think this is our best possible defensive alignment?
Damn, we’re gonna get screwed here arent we?
Cmon Kyle, shut them up
He’s gonna be safe.
Not screwed. It was the right call.
Close, Claude. Great play.
Ugly, Austin.
Damn. That’s why Riley is not a great left fielder.
This is angling poorly right off the bat
If Wright can escape without further damage I’ll be delighted.
Fall behind in the count you get beat
Oh well. 2-2 series tie incoming. No way Wilson outduels Kershaw.
@12 Screwed as if “if there is no replay, the braves get an out”
Until replay reverses posey being out, it will continue being useless.
And here comes the whole momentum BS
Now the ump misses strike 2 on bellinger . F this game alread
Now another missed strike!
No game in which you’re up 2-0 is must-win. The thought that we can’t win one of two games against the Dodgers where one is Wilson vs. Kershaw (which is still an assumption) and the other is Ynoa vs. whoever is not an accurate one IMO. But what you might do if you spend too much time trying to step on their throat is neuter any advantage you get from pitching Fried and Anderson and make Game 7 unwinnable. Long story short, relax.
Jesus. Kyle can’t buy a strike.
The ump cost Kyle two strikes in the Bellinger at-bat. He’s been awful.
Kyle Wright doesn’t seem to be the type who can weather a storm.
The umpiring was great the first two games and is just that bad so far tonight.
Ugh…
And I’m turning this game off. Thanks, Wright.
Not going to listen to the announcers orgasm for the next couple of hours acting like the Commissioner’s Trophy should be given to the Dodgers right now.
And pumpkin. Make that 3 bullpen games in a row. Max and Ian HAVE to go on short rest.
Our lack of pitching depth was going to cost us sometime. I still hate Snits decision to let Tomlin throw bp last night to get their bats going.
I think Folty could have done this
So about that whole momentum thing…
Anytime something goes wrong with Wright it snowballs. It’s kind of like Folty in that way.
Yeah, by all means…let’s line it up so that this guy would have to take the mound on short rest in Game 7. No thanks. I’ll take my chances with Fried and Anderson even if we’re down 3-2…which there’s no reason we have to be.
Atlanta Sports Teams
@20 – The reason this was – past tense – a must win game isn’t because the Braves couldn’t in an ideal world win games 6 and 7 running. The problem is Snitker has to work in a real world where by game 6 his bullpen will at best be a smoking hole, which is what happens when your GM decides to roll with exactly two starting pitchers.
Are we playing the Cards, game 5??
We need to get him out of here.
I like being the visitors more when there’s no home crowd. At least you’re guaranteed a chance to bat before the game’s over.
Hey all, the Criterion Channel has a great lineup of ’70s horror movies if you’re looking for something to watch tonight….
He needs to leave Wright out there. Why waste the pen when we need them tomorrow. Take the beating for the team for tomorrow’s chance to win
@34
Well, everybody important down there should get a day off today.
@26 agreed on all counts, I turned it off before pedophile’s HR hit the ground.
I’d bet on L A sweeping the rest of the series.
Now THIS is a bullpen game. Gotta go with Fried game 5.
And Nick – you are assuming Anderson also goes short rest. I never suggested that. Line him up for a potential game 7.
We have plenty of long relievers. No sense in letting him stay in and take a beating. We carried extra pitchers for this exact scenario.
So somebody just needs to wear one and save the bullpen now, right?
I would also like to remind everyone they did not feel the need to acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline.
Well, we get 9 innings & 27 outs… and we scored 8 runs last night.
But, can we close the top of this inning already?
You guys are all jumping ship and panicking up 2-1 (presumably), I’d hate to be on a ship with you guys in an actual emergency. Yeesh!
It would be very easy to be critical, but let’s call it a post season market correction
I’ll save my energy for a sleepless night tomorrow
And the Braves aren’t getting anything tonight from the umps
@46: Did you miss who tomorrow’s starter is? Another first inning massacre incoming.
Does anyone know what time the Braves are playing tonight?
We Aren’t getting any strike calls. We better get the same thing when we are up to bat.
First in the series is Trog (1970). Hoo boy, is it bad! Rubber lizards, a missing link with fur boots and a distaste for rock n roll music, and Joan Crawford (in her final role) as an anthropologist convinced that “Trog” can reveal the secrets of evolution, if she can just be allowed to teach him to talk (spoiler alert: he learns to say “green” and “blue”, and then they kill him). Highest recommendation!
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066492/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
Their bats were always going to come alive eventually. No shocker. It’s just damn good we got the first 2 games. We only need 4 of these. Have 2 already. We won the first 3 game series. Now tomorrow, we start a new 3 game series. Let LA have their fun tonight (and we haven’t even had an at bat yet…so who knows.)
Sorry, Foltynewicz, you lost your crown and all your glory from that 10-run first inning last year.
Not looking too good, I don’t care if we lose 30 to 0. Let’s just save our good relievers for the rest of the series.
This is fine.
Back up the truck. The fact that the bullpen needs to pitch essentially 9 innings today is going to pretty much mean they are gassed tomorrow…and we have Wilson starting …not a recipe for victory . Throw Tomlin’s ass out there to eat innings since his bs started this onslaught last night
What’s most amazing to me is that there were two outs when it was still 1-0. How do you give up a double-digit amount of runs before getting a single out?
Criterion Horror #3, Let’s Scare Jessica to Death: City dwellers arrive in backwoods town and inadvertently trample on its dark secrets — a now-familiar horror trope but there’s a reason these have never stopped getting made. Unnerving sound design, and I enjoyed the unstable voiceover. Zohra Lampert as Jessica carries the rest of the cast — she coulda been a star, don’t know why she wasn’t.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067341/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
And this, Nick, is why I noted the Braves keeping Dayton on the roster instead of adding another starter.
@56 – Agree 100%
Man, I hate off days.
Sacrifice Tomlin, IL for phantom injury, call up newcomb, folty or….ugh..luke jackson…. ????……profit?
I expect to see both culberson and panda pitching today.
Could have seen this one coming a mile away.
Man I wish we could somehow bend spacetime to get Tommy Milone into this game somehow and he could just get obliterated for 8 innings. Not really his fault but I irrationally resent that guy and if the Braves have to wear this whuppin’, I’d enjoy seeing him take the rest of the beating.
Vanderbilt Folty.
I’m done following this series.
@13
Play of the game…
Pache’s diving half volley stop in CF.
Awful relief effort from Dayton. 7 is 7.
Criterion horror #4, Daughters of Darkness: Slow burn vampire movie set in an underpopulated Belgian resort town. Has enough giallo elements that I searched for it among lists of giallo classics but came up empty. I liked it.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067690/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
I don’t see how you can blame Tomlin. It has to be on Wright and whoever “Dayton” is.
No real pitcher needs to see the mound the rest of this game. I’m serious, let Culbertson lob them in softball style until the Dodgers get tired of swinging. With no off days you can’t afford to waste one pitch on anybody they might use in the coking games.
Hell, if we don’t get close, let Culberson pitch the last 3 innings.
#51
An alternative-viewing option, for sure.
@65
Oh, good lord! Bye then!
I hope someone is keeping track of how many times “momentum” is mentioned in the context of last night
This game is on Anthropolis
As a horror aficionado, sansho, I’m liking your suggestions. Keep them coming.
@70
Pretty good point, ububba.
WARNING: Emotion
It’s super hard to say this about someone with, like, 300 professional innings under his belt, but I’m so incredibly sick of hearing about how good Kyle Wright is. Kyle Wright has been shoved down the throats of Atlanta Braves fans because he pitched in the SEC, he was our first round pick, etc. etc. But as a professional, he has done absolutely nothing to lead me to believe that he’s a major league pitcher, he’s 25 years old, and we just keep pushing him along. The prospect dudes keep pitching tents in their pants about this guy and they have NOTHING to say other than, “He has good stuff. I think. I dunno, I haven’t seen it yet, but he has a shiny draft position next to his name so, ya know, it must be there. ” I DON’T CARE. Can he get people out? NO! He didn’t in AA, he didn’t in AAA, he’s not at the big league level. Make. The guy. Earn it. Stash his ass in AAA next year until he rattles off a sustained level of performance that justifies all of this drooling over him.
OK, Al asked for it!
Criterion horror #6, Dracula A.D. 1972: British mashup of classic horror set in swinging London. Amusing hippie dialogue as written by squares (and several years too late…the Dirty Harry model of depicting youth in revolt). Peter Cushing has more to do than Christopher Lee, but Lee knew all the Dracula moves by heart by then.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068505/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
In the 1960 World Series, the Pirates lost three games by scores of 16-3, 12-0, and 10-0. They still won the best of 7 series.
Ok, so now you have 17 innings to cover over the next 2 days with no starting pitchers to do it. But let’s say you give your God’s honest hardest attempt at tomorrow. That looks like Bryse Wilson and then Ynoa. So maybe, MAYBE, you get 5 innings out of those guys. And then you have to go through 4 relievers to get through the rest of that game. Who does that leave for today? Obviously whether you want to or not, you bring Tomlin back out. He throws 2 innings of BP. So now you’re in the 4th inning. Jacob Webb for an inning. Now you’re in the 5th…. and you’re done. That’s all of the pitchers that you don’t want to throw. You have 4 innings to cover tonight with… no one. Seriously, no one. Culberson. You’re going to have to throw someone tonight that you wanted to throw tomorrow.
Seriously, screw you Kyle Wright. I’m so done with 25 year old failed prospect Kyle Wright who was never any good anyway.
I’m seeing gameday, albies hit a 415 foot 3 run homer…..oh wait, somehow its an out.
Its gonna be that type of game.
@76 The fact that Kyle Wright sucks is not Kyle Wright’s fault and it is also not Kyle Wright’s fault that he is starting games for us in the NLCS. The only reason he is here and you have to get emotional about it is because as shitty as he is, he is still the team’s third best starting pitcher, and that fact is 100% entirely completely 100% at the feet of Alex Anthopoulos.
Grant Dayton had better start getting some outs, or he’s still gonna be out there having given up 29 runs. I honestly might let him go 100 pitches.
@81 Agreed. But we’d have probably thrown him in Game 4 if we had a decent 3rd starter. Either way, there’s such an infatuation with this guy that he’s being given these opportunities. We have been hoping this guy would join the rotation for 2 seasons now, and there’s been absolutely nothing in his professional track record that says that he should even be starting regular season game.
Oh, but don’t worry guys, “he’s close!”
Eh, why bitch? Go watch a horror movie instead — a different one, I mean.
If you told me we’d be up 2-1 after 3 games, I’d sign for that right away.
#78
Yup, and they won the 7th game, 10-9.
Why bitch? I just outlined what the next 2 days look like. I’m bitching because it really kinda sorta looks like we have 2 losses now because tomorrow’s plans wrecked by today.
Why bitch? Because this is the internet!
Still thinking about Ginger getting hit on the foot on purpose. What’s the official rule with getting intentionally hit?
@86
It should’ve been called a ball (because the pitch was out of the strike zone when it hit him) and play should’ve been declared dead (meaning the runners couldn’t have advanced).
The Dodgers scored 10 fewer runs in the second inning — at this rate, the Braves will score 10 runs in the third and we’ll win the game 69-12.
I would have preferred to get at least one run back in that frame, especially after the lead off walks, but so be it. It’s that kind of night/game.
I have never been in the DOOMED camp having seen many highs and many lows over the years. I saw Sid slide and Justice hit his HR. Also saw the Wholers pitch to Leyritz and Kimbrel stuck in the pen when he should have been on the mound. This is just 1 game.
That said, I agree with Rob (and others.) Wright was a late season good story…by necessity. I didn’t follow his minors career like some others here do, but I was skeptical when he started showing some flashes of brilliance. We’ve seen that before. Folty, Newk, Hanson, Jurrgens, Minor, Millwood…all the way back to Avery (for me at least.) As good as Anderson has showed, I’m still skeptical. He has what…11 major league starts? Sure, he shows poise more than some others. But he is young, limited in experience, and there will be adjustments as all good major league players do.
The major fault of this rebuild (and I am not suggesting this one game tells us anything about that) was not finding the “professional” pitcher like they did with Cakes in the outfield. It’s great to bring up the young kids and try and build a starting rotation with young guys like we did in the 90’s. But guess what those teams also had. Charlie Liebrandt. We have no one like that on this starting staff. It’s all on them.
So yeah, stop gushing over the wunderkinds and find at least one dependable, trustworthy veteran to anchor this staff going forward, no matter what happens the rest of the way.
And in other news…
https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2020/10/nick-saban-tests-positive-for-covid-19.html
Not a big deal but this would be a good time to get Flowers in the game and let Duck rest.
It is incredible how the mood on this board changes in a matter of minutes. Everyone was incredibly upbeat and now we have people saying they are done watching the series. That’s a little drastic, don’t you think. It’s just one stinking game.
On Kyle Wright I will have to say that his last few games to me have been shaky at best. His start against the Marlins looked like a good team would have beat him up. I still haven’t given up on him, but I’m not super-confident that he’ll be in the rotation long term.
@90 – It’s crazy about Saban. Weird thing is we were watching the game and the ending was strange. He had his mask on the entire game and went to shake hands and talk to Kiffin with his mask on. After he finished talking with Kiffin he dropped his mask with hundreds of people around him and ran to the locker room.
@90 – Oh damn! That changes a lot for Sat!
(And best wishes/prayers for the Evil Genius. The game isn’t the same without him.)
I don’t usually read the board on a day I’m recapping. I’ve made an exception here because reasons. I just wanted to tell everybody that if you don’t want to watch, you don’t have to. I’ll let y’all know if anything happens…
Riley cannot be allowed to play the outfield.
Worst part about Saban getting it was that he has been taping PSAs to try and get the hillbillies in that state to wear masks. Now that they see he got it they will probably throw up their hands and go back to kissing their sisters.
Dodgers in 6.
For clarity, I’m not mad about where we are, per se, in the series. This is just simply one game. If we can find a way to not gut our staff and finish this game, then it’s just one game. My rant is strictly based on being tired of Kyle Wright and the Kyle Wright adulation. That’s just where I’m at on him, but I agree that it’s not his fault that Soroka died, Sean Newcomb continued with his tenuous relationship with the strike zone, and Folty showed up looking like a strung out cokehead.
Can Tonya Harding’s fixer knee-cap someone on our roster so we can call up Sean Newcomb or something? We need to pull some innings out of someone who we were not expecting anything from this series. Could we run Tomlin out there again and then replace him so we can have someone fresh for tomorrow?
I wonder if the UGA/Bama game is in any danger of not being played.
#94
From the Georgia side, there’s only one coach who we ever considered the “evil genius” & he usually wore orange.
I live in Kentucky and am a Braves fan courtesy’s of TBS. it occurs to me that many of you are likely Georgia natives who care deeply about the Braves/Falcons/Bulldogs trifecta.
Like how do you guys even?
The comeback begins.
This is more than just one game. You can say that if you lose 7-3, 8-2, whatever. We’re the laughing stock of the pro sports world yet again. The Braves always find a way to provide fuel for the narrative that they suck in October.
I wonder if Freddy Garcia is busy tomorrow.
@101 – Born in KY, moved here in ‘01. I deal with the Braves the same way I deal with UK football. Poorly.
#101
Don’t forget the Hawks.
Hey, we’re still pretty good at college football.
So moving on, what’s the most realistic best case scenario? Get through today and tomorrow without using the bullpen “A-team” (let’s say Matzek, Smith, Martin, and Melancon). Use Culberson if you have to. Then Fried on short rest with the entire A-team ready for whatever in game 5. Win game 5, do another B-team bullpen game (Wright should be available too 🙂 ). Then a full rest Anderson and the A-team (after a day of rest) for game 7.
Surprised to see Ynoa in this game. Glad D’Arnaud and Freeman are getting some rest. I guess they’re keeping Culberson out because he’s going to pitch later, and Markakis because he needs the rest more than the other regulars (though he did get on base more than anyone else yesterday – who would’ve predicted that). Pache looks like he belongs.
Seems like this might be a good time for a couple of players to try to bunt against the shift, just to put it in the Dodgers’ mind.
@97 – I don’t know what us poor people here in Alabama would do without you people who are so enlightened educating us. Sorry, but that is extremely offensive and arrogant but par for the course.
Serious question; if Snit in between innings said ” guys, get in the clubhouse, we’re not going to play”. Be it for whatever reason, let’s say protest because of poor umpiring.
What exactly would happen?
There’s no precedent for a forfeit, right? Before or during a game?
I doubt you can forfeit a game that’s already reached the minimum number of innings when you’re already losing; I expect you’d just lose by the score. If you forfeit before the game is played, of course, the loss is recorded as having been 9 to 0.
Huh, I didn’t know about the 9-0 thing.
I guess you gotta play to keep Manfred happy anyway. Maybe “morale” as well.
I was just wondering if there was a mechanism to technically say “we quit” when it is 15-0 in the 3rd, and what , if any , consequences that would have.
Ynoa soaked up a lot of pitches, which may help significantly over the next couple days.
RE: Georgia sports
I actually brought this up about a week ago. I’m also a fan of the Braves because of TBS, not because I’m an overall fan of Georgia sports. And I genuinely wonder if Georgia sports has some sort of weird curse. I said this before we gave up 15 runs to the Dodgers. And with all due respect to ububba, no, actually, Georgia is not good at college football. They haven’t won a national championship since 1980, and every single one of their rivals since has won one, including their biggest rival, who has won 3 within that time. And it’s almost like that’s Georgia sports in a nutshell. Maybe there has been some sort of conditioning that has occurred that has allowed Georgia sports to be ok with not winning championships. That being in the conversation late in the season, like Georgia football, is enough.
Ed Orgeron is probably going to be fired next year, and he just won a natty. There are real life Bama fans that wanted to get rid of Nicholas Lou Saban last year for losing 2 games, one of which to their biggest rival. Crazy, sure, but that’s the standard at those schools. Kirby lost to South Carolina at home last year, and it just… wasn’t that big of a deal. I think that’s a Georgia sports thing.
@100 – Yeah, but Spurrier is retired. I do worry about the game being postponed. I think the Dawgs have a good chance this time around with our defense vs. theirs. Yet there is our offense vs. theirs. Toss up. I hope it goes off, as long as everybody can do it safely.
And with Ynoa going tonight for some innings, I think we now know Fried is going game 5. I’ll say it again – we only need 4. Fried and Anderson win two each. I did predict Braves in 7, after all.
ETA – Rob, said like a Florida man. Put on your jorts. 😉 (This is the kind of thing we talk about when the Braves are down 15-1)
@79
You’ve made that perfectly clear, more so than necessary, or deserved, or accurate. Why not keep your bad temper to yourself, there are still a bunch of Braves fans here. Self indulgence at times like this is not attractive, nor helpful to the rest of us.
@116 Would you rather me write you a poem, my delicate flower?
Ynoa looked good. Greene looked good.
The Dodgers are great against mediocre pitching. So what. See you tomorrow.
I appreciate Snit burning Shane Greene’s arm in such a close game to keep Charlie Culberson’s arm fresh for tomorrow.
Kyle pulled a Folty (a new term in our glossary). Will ARod says “The real game happened from inning 4. The momentum is now back to the Braves as the Braves have successfully silent the Dodgers bat for 2/3 of the game”?
@119 The Dodgers also burned Jansen too so it equals out.
True. Jansen and Greene are probably both in to just get work in, and they’ll be available tomorrow.
Recapped, on the assumption somebody needs to relive this.