This game is not worth much of a recap. Here’s what I’ve got.
1. Bad Julio is back with a vengeance. His playoff role needs to be seriously reconsidered. 2.1 innings, 6 hits, 1 W, 2 HBPs, 1K, 6 runs. Even without giving up any HRs, he managed to lose a game in one inning. That is not good.
2. Acuna left after 2 1/2 innings with some sort of hip flexor. That is not good.
3. Ozzie can hit. That is pretty darn good. The difference between Ozzie and Ronald or Freddie is that Ozzie cannot yet win a game all by himself. He really tried tonight with a single, double and HR. Ozzie can also get hit by pitch. That better not be a bad thing. The HR was lefthanded by the way and after the HBP – I love Ozzie. That is a good thing.
4. Cervelli will be a good asset to have around on a playoff team. That is good. He woke the team briefly out its stupor with a nice solo shot in the 5th. But the Braves could only score one more and left the bases loaded when the clutch hit would not come. That is not good.
5. Dayton can pitch – he may yet pitch his way into the playoffs. But Swarzak cannot. That is, pitch or get into the playoffs.
6. Blevins should never pitch to righties. Ever. Actually, he also gave up a double to a lefty. That is not good.
7. Nick is in May form. That is good. 2 doubles, a walk, and 2 RBIs is a good night’s work at the plate. Donaldson is also in May form. That is not good. Can we bring Musgrove to the playoffs with us?
8. 3 Ks in 4 ABs. That is not good. Riley is not ready for the playoffs. Not sure Dansby is either. Because one hard hit single does not mean he’s hitting again.
9. O’Day is worthy of a playoff roster spot. The two Ks speaks louder than the double and HBP. That is good. Martin is spot on his game, too, with a real clean inning. That is good, too.
9. Royals beat the Braves 9-6. So nothing about this game screams “ready for playoffs”. That is not good.
Sounds like Soroka is going to be pushed back to Game 3. I’m not wild about having our ace only start one game. I guess he could possibly be available for relief in Game 5 if needed.
Thanks for the recap, Roger. Not great but enough time to get everyone healthy to start the playoffs.
Man, the Royals on a Tuesday… it had to be a loss.
good and not good…
we are to the point in time when only that will matter…
if you can hit lefties, then hit them…
if you can’t pitch to righties then don’t…
you are no longer the swagger king, rethink…
your hard hit single we must hope is profound…
you will catch every game, as it comes, you are good, you are strong…
you must show us in NY you are fit, please…
you are, at your age, persona very grata…you can hit
as for you you little man…we already owe you a huge debt, roll over when you feel like it…we love you.
the pitching we leave to the experts, God help us…as we do with flexors also…
Roger, you are the Master Game Scribe…feel free to write a thousand word addendum on every post season game, work be damned…clarity, ’tis precious.
a motley crew
you’d think by now they’d know exactly what to do
and so they very might
depends – they wouldn’t say – just how they feel that night.
Be strong!
@Roger
I really enjoyed this breakdown. It was simple and the information needed after the post clinch dead part of the season.
I’d given up on Dayton as it looked like he just wasn’t going to get innings. I agree that there’s a spot for him if he shows he’s able to pitch these next few games.
@1 Starting Soroka in game 3 would also set up Soroka to start a hypothetical NLCS Game 1. And if it’s because of his home/road splits, as DOB is noting in those tweets, then that makes sense. It seems to be pretty consensus amongst everyone that has offered an opinion that Keuchel, Folty, and Soroka is the way they’ll lean.
So Keuchel starting game 1, Soroka game 3. Does that leave Folty for game 2? I have a ticket for game 2.
Our former bar mate, J. C., was approved to the Cobb County Development Authority Board last night.
Somebody on Talking Chop had FIP, XFIP, Sierra, and pCRA (which I had never heard of) splits on Soroka home and away and he was better home than away by those measures.
I would have preferred to have Keuchel go in game 3 to allow 2 righthanders to go against St. Louis potentially twice and allow Keuchel to go early and at least twice against the Dodgers. There is a lot of platoon difference between the best lineup that the Cardinals can play against righthanders and what the Dodgers can play against righthanders (and some difference in reverse as well).
Great piece and interview with AA over at The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/1239440/?source=twittered
AA is awesome.
I like the rotation going Keuchel, Folty, and then Sororka. The veteran guy gets to set the tone for game 1 of the NLDS; and if there is a game 4 in St. Louis, he’ll also be on the bump for what could be a high stakes game either way. Plus if Sororka’s more comfortable starting on the road, he gets to.
@13, good piece. Key takeaway: AA will never, ever give truthful public information about his future intentions or present dealings. He’ll only speak in retrospect.
@12
What in the everloving crap is pCRA?
Also, even if we’re allowing that all the stats which say what Soroka’s ERA “should’ve been” say that he “should’ve been” better at home, your other choice is probably to start Folty on the road…so yeah, I think I’ll take Soroka on the road, thanks.
@15
Another ever present takeaway comes very early in any interview – he acknowledges the debt he also owes to those who had come before him. Nice, classy.
I could be whistling past the graveyard here, but with three days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs for us, I’m not convinced we’d take any momentum into the playoffs even if we were to completely tear the Royals and Mets up the rest of the way (and that’s even if we think momentum is a thing).
All of that’s a long way of saying that I don’t think I’d worry too much about what happens from an overall perspective this week. Individual things like Julio turning into a pumpkin, Freddie’s elbow and Ronald’s hip are, of course, a concern.
I agree Nick. I kind of see the last 7 to 10 games as having a similar feel as spring training. Difference is we have no room for error on opening day
@18, 19 Yep, the only thing that matters is that these guys come in looking to shock and frustrate their opponents. Whomever they play, they need to keep the fear in their opponents. Every inning is an opportunity for the game to swing the Braves’ direction.
@3, re: the mound. It’s “several” inches too low? There’s no regulation on mound height?
I think the rule is no higher than 10 inches above the rest of the field? So, it could be lower than 10?
The Major League rules only set a maximum height. I know it was lowered in roughly 1969, but I do not know the maximum.
Here’s a pCRA description which I literally just found by Googling. I know nothing about it. http://sixmanrotation.com/cra-update-pcra-the-best-era-estimator-of-the-statcast-era/
It builds on CRA: http://sixmanrotation.com/introducing-xra-a-new-pitching-metric/
The basic idea is it’s trying to use Statcast data to incorporate how hard the ball was hit (“barrels”) into the other indicators of how well a pitcher was pitching (K% and BB%).
Man, this makes me wince almost as much as reading about Mitch Haniger’s injury.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=401077080
Really, it’s San Francisco that’s guilty of making it such an unwatchable game, not Colorado. Colorado used 11 pitchers to pitch 12 2/3 innings; San Fran used 12 to pitch 9 innings. Only 2 of those 12 pitchers actually gave up any runs.
Somewhere, a tear of pride runs down LaRussa’s cheek.
Well, San Fran had a good start from its starter, and Colorado had a terrible start from its starter. Both bullpens were reasonably effective — Colorado’s pen yielded just two runs in those 12 2/3 relief innings, while San Francisco’s pen yielded four earned in nine relief innings (most of them on a homer that followed an infield single). But the game took longer than a cricket match and I wouldn’t have wanted to watch every pitch if all 25 of those twirlers were my sons.
Alex: do you have 25 sons?!?
@25 In fairness, you’re talking about using 25 pitchers over the span of 16 innings. That’s not so absurd. I’d watch it because I love the drama of extra innings, even more so when it’s two teams I care nothing about. It’s a bit more nerve racking when it involves the Braves though. Lol
He is sitting out the rest of the regular season games and they say he should be ready for the NLDS. I guess he will play then even if he’s not 100%.
Thanks for the good vibes everyone.
@30 That is not good.
I have to wonder if all the players in slumps aren’t nursing some sort of minor injury. Acuna, Freddie, Donaldson, Dansby. Too many not to have some underlying problem. I guess it’s too late to rest anyone now.
I don’t care how hot they are, I’d face the Yelich-less Brewers over the Cardinals all dang day.
Would the Braves please beat the 100-loss Royals once this year?
I don’t have enough kids to play solitaire, to be perfectly honest.
Wake me up when the playoffs start
Sad prediction: the Braves will go down in three games to the Cardinals. They peaked too soon. I’m not just basing this on their woefully bad performance against one of the worst teams in baseball. They haven’t been good in weeks. As JD goes, so goes the Braves. And he has absolutely disappeared.
Not something you see everyday, a manager removing the DH mid-game for a pitcher.
Mark Graybill: your prognostication this season has been 100%.
Mark’s the new Chief, it seems.
Mark, you gotta believe, man.
I should criticize Dansby more often, it seems. 3-5 today. He has as many hits tonight as he’s had all month, at least the last few weeks.
Not a great game for sad Braves predictions. Donaldson and Swanson have busted out of slumps and our non big 3 relievers (Newk, Blevins, O’Day, and Jackson) have looked good. We’ve also made the Royals pitchers work hard. KC is far from being a playoff team, but we’ve made them look like the Astros until tonight.
Today’s Brewer win officially eliminated the Mets. Good riddance.
Has anyone ever pointed out that Josh Donaldson is a real mulleted scamp?
Recap warning. I’m planning to post simultaneously with the last out.