Kolby Allard for Chris Martin

By now, you’ve seen the reports that Kolby Allard, #2 prospect on MLB Pipelines’ Braves list, has gone over to Texas for Chris Martin. A few different thoughts about the trade:

Kolby Allard

If there was a starting pitcher you were going to trade for a reliever, Allard was it. Just about every starting pitcher in Atlanta’s system can profile as a reliever. So if you can’t find a spot in the short- or long-term for a starting pitcher prospect, you can stick him in the pen. For Allard, that wasn’t the case. There are significant concerns his lack of velocity would not play in the bullpen. And obviously the Braves agreed; as Allard pitched well in AAA and our bullpen was in disarray, Allard never got a call.

Allard needed an opportunity to plug into a rotation and get enough leash to see if he can have success. So he was a great candidate to trade. However, I’ve heard the argument that because Allard was expendable and better as a trade candidate, that is almost didn’t matter what he was traded for. “We can afford it,” they say. I don’t agree with that. Almost all of us can afford to lose $10. Would we buy a gallon of milk for $10? No. So it depends on what we got for him.

Chris Martin

Martin is a guy that had struggled to figure it out. He’s 33, and he’s only got 116 major league innings under his belt. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, and more importantly, he keeps the ball on the ground (49% ground ball rate), pounds the strike zone (0.95 BB/9), and gets strike outs (10.18 K/9).

He spent two years in Japan, and his return to MLB is what has shortened his years of control. As the trade first came out, most people read on Baseball Reference and Spotrac that he has 2+ years of control. But apparently his contract stipulated that his control would end at the end of this year.

Kolby Allard for 2 months of Chris Martin — probably about 1 bWAR — seems like an overpay, especially after what Marcus Stroman went for. I think there’s another angle here though. The Braves probably feel like a portion of Allard’s value is going towards getting Martin for 2 months. The rest of Allard’s value is going towards getting a first hand look at whether they want to re-sign him. A 33-year old reliever with one good season probably won’t cost much, but the Braves would want to know what they’re getting, and getting him in the organization is a good way of doing it.

Otherwise, I would have liked to have gotten more control for Allard.

201 thoughts on “Kolby Allard for Chris Martin”

  1. Fully agree with Rob. The Braves paid a premium for 2 months of use and a long look at Martin. It also frees up a 40-man spot in the off-season, so there is that value too.

    There is a cost to making a run. You’re not usually going to get the advantage in deadline trades.

  2. @2

    I mean, compared with what we already have, he can…I guess. Surely he’s better than Jackson in that spot. Not that that’s saying much.

    If we don’t get a bona fide closer today, though, I think I become more in favor of trying Folty in the spot than I ever have before.

  3. Foltynewicz seems like such a headcase though. Imagine a close ball four not being called his way in the bottom of the ninth with a one-run Braves lead.

  4. Nice, Mike.

    What Smutty said at #7. Give me Felipe, or give me Shane Greene or somebody equally as effective.

    Smitty. Not Smutty, though it tickles me.

  5. Bad idea to walk Camargo there. Instead of the Camargo and the pitcher, now it’s the pitcher and Acuña (assuming no dp).

  6. Minter has almost a 3 run gap between his FIP and his ERA. So Fangraphs has him at a 0.0 fWAR, and B-Ref has him at -0.8. I do agree with Alex that Minter’s issues could be more mental than anything.

    Bowman is saying a late inning reliever like Shane Greene, not Felipe Vasquez, could be an option.

  7. 2018 Braves Fans: Who cares if Darren O’Day is injured, we get him next year!

    2019 Braves Fans: Chris Martin! Who cares about next year!

  8. 19 — His walk rate is awful. It seems to me like he is trying to pitch around every RHB he faces. Either he needs to stop facing RHB or go to Gwinnett.

  9. Admittedly, I’ve never been a Minter fan, but he has no business on a big league roster at this point.

    Hopeful that we get a good lefty for the pen and that Webb comes back soon.

  10. Did you see Zuk catch that ball, Tyler? Catchers catching thrown pitches is a GOOD thing.

  11. I actually have a lot of hope that AJ turns into a very effective reliever—but not this year. They must get at least one more solid reliever today.

  12. Shane Greene would be another emphasis on getting a reliever who’s really good this year. He does have one more year of control.

  13. I’d feel better if they also added a starter today, but I guess that’s not as likely.

  14. You go, Johan. People are starting to see you again.

    Okay, Ronald. Do your damnedest.

    Well done.

  15. Let’s be honest; Markakis was not going to ever hit 4 home runs in a week. With Flowers and Riley ice cold, there wasn’t a better time for Kakes to get injured so they could discover Duvall is for real enough to at least get hot.

    I wouldn’t trade for an outfielder. They’ll probably trade for an outfielder.

  16. Yes I keep reading “Braves Twitter” pining for an outfielder and really don’t get it. The Braves have outfielders for days at the major league level, not to mention Demeritte and Ortega in AAA (with Pache and Waters not far behind).

  17. Folty pitched 3 scoreless innings with 0 walks and 2 Ks in rain shortened start last night. One has to think he will get another chance soon. Too much upside for him not to get one.

  18. I agree. Outfielders need not apply. I confess I had little faith in Duvall being this Duvall, but he is showing me. I’ll even forgive the occasional strikeout.

  19. Morosi says the asking price is still high for Greene, not sure what that would mean for ATL? Wilson? Wright? Touki? Not sure I would trade any of those even straight up for Greene and I’m afraid with the Nats, Yanks and us rumored to be in play, they could be asking for more than that.

  20. If they are asking for that the Braves need to be getting more than Greene in return.

  21. Yikes. Wilson or Wright would be an overpay, IMO. Are you really going to trade those guys for, at best, 3 WAR between this year and next year.

  22. Said it before, I’ll say it again: Free Paul Byrd. He’s the best in the booth. So much great insight from him.

  23. To follow up, the Tigers were asking for Carter Kieboom for Greene (who is ranked 1 ahead of Pache on Fangraphs). No thank you…

    Certainly wouldn’t trade one of the top 3 (Waters, Pache or Anderson).

    Now if Boyd came with, I could see a Waters, Wright + kind of deal.

  24. The leverage is all with the sellers right now. I’m afraid it will take Wilson, Wright, or Touki to get Greene. That is probably an overpay, but how will you feel if AA comes away with no one today?

  25. Yes sir, Mr. Dusty.

    Minority report here: I have more faith in Bryse than in Wright, and I’d give Wright straight up for Greene.

  26. 45 – On Byrdy – Anyone else listen to Paul Byrd and think “This is exactly what grown-up Dustin from Stranger Things would sound like”?

  27. The Braves, historically, don’t seem to value relievers high at all. Overpaying for them kinda goes against the grain. I guess watching our guys this year might make one more desperate.

  28. The Braves did trade their starting first baseman (LaRoche) after a really good 2006 season for Mike Gonzalez.

    After watching that horrendous 2006 bullpen, which really ended the fourteen-in-a-row streak, it was hard to blame Schuerholz for getting Wickman, Gonzalez and Soriano.

  29. Hudson is not having as good of a year as Martin, but the cost of Kyle Johnston appears to be virtual peanuts. Johnston is not among the Nats top 28 prospects per fangraphs and has a 4.03 ERA in High A as a 23 year old.

    Edit: MLB did have Johnston at number 28 for the Nats.

  30. 58 — They also traded a starting pitcher with team control (Horacio Ramirez) for Rafael Soriano. That one worked out pretty well.

  31. They did get Soriano for a full year though. Or are we talking about potential deals for Greene?

  32. I was more taking a trip down memory lane than anything else LOL. They actually had Soriano under team control for 4 years but traded him for the last year as a salary dump after they signed Wagner.

  33. Does make you wonder why they didn’t call Duvall up earlier. He’s been raking all year.

  34. The General needs a better outing than his last. I’m surprised Newk isn’t getting the call.

  35. “The Brewers have traded for a significant Giants LHP…it’s Drew Pomeranz!”

    I hate you Chip.

  36. I wonder if Luke is available for the 9th after his 27 pitch outing less than 24 hours ago.

  37. Jackson is warning in the bullpen

    Oh, it’s a warning all right. Get the Alka-Seltzer ready.

  38. Given the extremes in his performance thus far, The General is a real Swarzak Test right now: you see what you want to see.

  39. I wish Paul Byrd would stop talking like the entire season rides on every one of these games.

  40. Luke would make a good 7th inning guy. Do you believe in miracles?

    May as well make it tough.

  41. Not a single one of us here would’ve put Jackson in to pitch here, and the predictable is happening…

  42. I was hoping they’d use Newk at the beginning of the 8th or 9th. He’s the only one who has a chance here.

  43. Not for nothing, but how hard would it have been to get Martin here for this game…

  44. Between this bullpen meltdown and the fear that AA will do nothing else before 4 p.m., this is the worst 90 minutes of the season.

  45. Staying with Luke would have been better. It was a cheap hit and an error. Better than infinite balls.

    Where is this Martin guy and why isn’t he with the team already?

  46. Just following on gamecast, how did they have enough time to get double play, but not enough time to come home and hold the lead?

  47. @124

    They were playing back at double-play depth up the middle. They decided they’d trade a tie game for two outs.

  48. It was a tailor made DP ball in DP depth. He wasn’t shallow enough to throw home.

  49. 125 – That is horrendous managing. You try and keep the lead at all costs, right?

  50. You know, I don’t think Snit will be able to do much to force AA’s hand one hour before the trade deadline. He’s either going to make another deal or two or he won’t. Nothing about the outcome of this game will influence that.

  51. @128

    I think I agree with them and not you, actually. In on the corners, certainly, but you don’t invite them to win the game just to keep them from tying it. If you can get to the 10th with a tie game after loading the bases with nobody out, I’ll take that all day.

  52. 128 — With the bases loaded and nobody out in a one run game, I think it was probably the right move. If he was playing shallow I don’t know if he could have fielded it.

  53. If Newk had been in from the beginning, a walk, a hit, a DP, and a K would have had the win.

  54. “The Scientist” wouldn’t be bad either. And now I’m out of Coldplay songs that I know..

  55. 135-Point taken about the ball maybe getting through, but if it didn’t you could have a 6-2-3 DP and then the strike out of Dozier wins the game.

  56. Guys, I don’t think the Luke Jackson Closer Experience™ will cut it in the postseason.

  57. Maybe we’ll send out our most effective relief pitcher so far this year. That would be Charlie Culberson. Unfortunately it’s Tomlin.

  58. Snitker obviously feels the same way as the rest of us. At least Tomlin will throw strikes.

  59. Crap! He picked the one I publicly supported, so I can’t complain if it goes Chernobyl here.

  60. Tomlin doesn’t walk anyone. We just need to hope the ropes they hit are right at someone.

  61. Shut up, Chip.

    “So it began with Anibal Sanchez, and the Braves are hoping it ends with [current pinch hitter] Adrian Sanchez…”

  62. I thought Tomlin was supposed to throw strikes. I’d do almost anything not to have to face Rendon and Soto.

  63. Well, that works. One more to go, now Rendon…if another batter, assumedly that’ll be Soto vs. Blevins.

  64. @182 Alex, I am on a group video call and one of my coworkers messaged me to ask what in the hell I was watching because I was pulling so many faces.

  65. So happy the Nats did not hit Soroka to the tune of a ~.500 BABIP today.

    Unfortunately, 7 IP 3 H 3 BB 1 ER baseball went down the drain because somebody leads the league/all of baseball in wins blown.

  66. DOB is acknowledging the reported Greene move (per Rosenthal) and talking like it’s happening, though no specifics or actual confirmation yet.

    Also, probably worth noting that if Philadelphia beats San Francisco tonight, they’ll pass Washington for second and we’ll be six games ahead of them (as opposed to the 6.5 we’re now ahead of Washington).

  67. I would have to think that they’re trying to inform someone they’ve been traded. Or I’m just turning a 15 minute delay in telling us who we sent into an hour in my mind. Either or.

  68. Looks like we’re also getting Mark Melancon. Wow. It’s like both GMs of today’s game are reacting to each run scored off the pen.

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