After last night’s loss to our’s truly, the Mets are 37-46 on the season, in 4th place of the NL East, and 6 games behind the 2nd Wild Card in the National League. While I don’t think they’re to the selling point that the aforementioned teams (Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Marlins, Giants, Reds) were when I wrote the 3-part piece, if the Braves sweep this series, it could mean the end of their manager and their 2019 hopes. And what does that mean for the Braves? Unlike most of the other teams discussed, I think the Mets will be a bit conservative at the trade deadline, only selling those guys they know they’ll likely lose to free agency in 2020. It’d be a pretty bad look for their shiny new GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, to go all-in on an offseason then turn around and sell off the assets just acquired and others already in house and under control. So here’s my best educated guess on the players the Mets would be willing to trade inside the division:
Todd Frazier
Adeiny Hechavarria
Juan Lagares
Jason Vargas
Luis Avilan
Carlos Gomez
Zack Wheeler
Let’s break each one of those down. No, let’s not! Ok, let’s do it anyway.
Frazier? Got several 3B…don’t need another.
Hechavarria…hecka no-a.
Lagares… one of the worst players in the league.
Vargas? Looks like a strung out Prado and threatens beatwriters.
Avilan? Had it. Traded it. Don’t need it.
Gomez? GOMEZ??!! Now that would be entertaining, but no.
Zack Wheeler. Hmmm…yeah, that could work. Sure!
Evaluating Zack Wheeler’s Value
Whether your evaluating via Baseball Reference or Fangraphs, when it comes to a player that may not be playing up to their potential, I think it’s best to use Fangraphs to help determine the value of said player, especially when it comes to pitching as it essentially shows the numbers that should be, not the numbers that are. At this point in the season, according to Fangraphs, Wheeler is boasting a 2.2 fWAR with a projected 4.3 fWAR. Using 9MM/WAR, and factoring in the ~2.8MM Wheeler would cost for the rest of 2019, Wheeler’s surplus value would be right around 17MM if acquired today.
So, what would a package for Zack Wheeler cost in inner-division rival? I think it goes without saying that it would have to exceed the other packages, and exceed what the Mets could get if he were offered a qualifying offer. So, my best guess would be that it would take a FV50 rated prospect and those are William Contreras, Touki Toussaint, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, Kolby Allard, and Bryse Wilson. However, the Mets could go a different route and seek an MLB player (or players) in return to help return them to glory in 2020. Or there’s another route of which they could gamble on and that would be to grab 2 FV40-45 picks that are close to MLB ready.
3 Trade Scenarios for Zack Wheeler
- Ender Inciarte for Zack Wheeler: Lagares has a 500K buyout for 2020 and there’s no chance that they will pick his option up. Ender becomes their CF for the rest of 2019 and through 2022 providing them a good core to go with Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto.
- Wilson Contreras for Zack Wheeler: I’ll be honest, I don’t like this trade. However, I feel as though Shea Langeliers might have just made Contreras expendable. This is one of those trades where, if made, Braves fans will be begging for an extension to justify the cost.
- Travis Demeritte and Patrick Weigel for Zack Wheeler: A sell-high and a buy-low are in this package and this one is more risky for the Mets, but could come with a huge payoff should both players reach their ceilings.
Thoughts on the trades? Thoughts on acquiring Zack Wheeler? Let’s hear them!
Long live, Braves Journal!
Would do 1 in a heartbeat, but probably have to add a Demeritte type prospect for the Mets to do it.
1 or 3 without hesitation. Don’t like 2.
Thanks for reading, timo! 2 is tough, for sure.
Your trades are well thought out, but I’m passing on them all. I’m just not particularly high on Wheeler. He’s had a good stretch as of late, but he’s had some bad ones too. So you’d be banking on trading for “good” Zach Wheeler, which is no more or less of a guarantee than Folty or Gausman rejoining the rotation and being good.
Great start. I like Ozzie in the fifth spot.
Terrible call, JD looked safe.
I don’t know. Is Wheeler a TOR SP? I don’t think so. Would he be an improvement to our rotation? Probably, assuming Folty or Gaus or Newk or Wright or Wilson cannot step up soon. In fact, Wheeler looks a whole lot like Gausman 2.0.
The trades you propose are reasonable, too, though. However, my thinking that would indicate that the Mets might want more. On the other hand, short term rental.
If we believe neither Folty nor Gausman will come back this year then Wheeler is a really good candidate to take their role this year and his rental status would mean that either could come back next year.
If the Mets would go for the relative values listed in these three trades then I’d go for it. I think trade #1 for Ender would be the only truly acceptable one because of the 40-man roster limitations. I guess for trades #2, #3, you could release Blevins and call up Dayton.
Horrific call at third, strike 3 called a ball … the Ump Show will not permit the Mets to lose on their 1969 tribute day.
So it’s going to be like this, huh Julio?
Looks like Bad Julio in the house.
Julio, too early for the tightrope, my man, but it’s never too early to break out your Houdini act.
What a pitch, way to go, Julio!
Peak Julio right there.
@10 – Ha. Was just gonna propose that we call Julio The Great Wallenda. Of course the problem with that monicker, is that Julio too often falls off of the tightrope
Why does it feel like Matz is pitching better even though he’s on the losing end right now?
Good job, Ronald. Outfield needs to work together.
@13: So did Wallenda…. Once.
As you might imagine, the Mets are the best hitting pitching staff in the league.
That may have been the most centerfield play Ronald’s made.
Ugh Julio.,..come on man
0-2- single
0-2 hbp
Eating innings doesnt help when you pitch so stupidly
We may soon hold auditions for Julio’s rotation spot.
——Julio——
Walked to tight rope and lived to talk about it again. Yikes….
Words fail.
We may need bunches of runs today.
The classic 2 IP, 3.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA stat-line.
The good news is that, if the delay is too long and Julio cannot go back out, we might be satisfied with Julio’s shutout outing.
@18
…agreed, great speed to get there to help out…
but the throw that followed was way off where we could have had an out. His arm is strong, he gets rid of the ball quickly, he needs to improve his accuracy.
The tarp has disappeared. Who pitches?
@25
Ryan…I didn’t know that had become a classic but it sure reads like one. Please give one more example of another HOF line, covering a different happening.
OK, I’ve seen enough. I just hope he can get out of this inning without any damage.
Ugh…. enough Julio.
I’d seen enough before the rain delay.
That was as bad as I’ve ever seen anyone pitch that exits with a lead. Not sure why Blevins is the choice here unless Snit is punting this game.
Julio walked Alonso intentionally but he had to do it old school to give time for Blevins to get ready to face Cano. He was never going to give Alonso anything to hit.
Why aren’t Tomlin or Touki or Newk up? If Blevins doesn’t get the lefties out here it could get uglier in a hurry.
Blevins in to face the next two batters, who are lefties.
@31–I think the plan all along was to use Blevins against Cano and Conforto if they got to them.
If he faces a righty I’ll break my tv.
I get it. Pitcher up first next inning.
Glory be. Blevins saves the game. What a deal.
I don’t think they’d trade Contreras for a half season of control of Wheeler. I would think they would insist on one of the pitchers.
OMG. DET comes back to beat the gNats and Marlins come back to beat Phils. LOL
Phils were ahead 6-1 before Marlins come back if that rings any bells. Except IWOTM not the Cubs….
Braves need more runs.
@31 I take it you didn’t see Tyler Chatwood pitch against us a few days ago and win.
@39 Oy, I tried to forget…. but good point.
Tyler’s not on the team for his bat, but his defense is going to have to get better fast. Otherwise, we can’t carry that weak a bat. No field, no hit catchers are not long for this league.
Case in point. Block the ball. Please.
Touki…Oye.
For any of my fellow old-timers out there, doesn’t Alonso’s stance and swing remind you of Bob Horner?
Now that you mention it. There are worse choices.
Tyler’s magic appears to be wearing off… Or is that just called aging?
Old friend Wisler has been DFA again.
WTF stop calling for strikes down the middle when 0-2. This ump sucks terribly as well.
He moves more than Horner before the pitch, but the way he holds the bat close to his right shoulder, and then gets it through the zone so quickly, is very Horner-esque.
All these two strike hits are very depressing.
Based on the fluidity of the strike zone, I’m fairly certain Bill Welke was concussed coming into the game.
@41
He looks exhausted. In both roles. Extended break needed. Ineffective.
Touki. Somehow, some way, Touki comes up with his usual mid-game 2 innings, 2 runs.
Freddie in one of mini slumps where he can’t hit anybody, rookies included. Started in Chicago.
Another misdirected throw from Acuna takes the pressure off a base runner.
We must not lose this game.
I’m tired of complaining about Chip, but I can’t let this one go. He just said that the strike zone is so uniform these days that is doesn’t really matter who is behind the plate. Has he been watching this game?
Delenda est.
Nick!
NECK!! He only needs a half day off!!! Woohoo!!
AUSTIN!! Back-to-back and the lead.
Neck!
And Austin too!
Yeah Riley has cooled off, doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the lineup.
This team.
Webb is cookin’!!
Jacob Webb
is surely no pleb
but more the aristo
with a repertory so improvisto.
Have a forgettable day, Freddie.
Here we go for the Luke trifecta:
Bad defense – check
Ump not calling strikes – check
Blown save –
Luke’s pitching scared again. End well, this will not.
Nothing timid about that third strike heater to Conforto.
Nor that heater to Smith. Luke has made a believer out of me.
Luke freaking Jackson. Damn, man, way to go!!!
Saint Luke!
¡Cojones!
Classy from Webb.
Gritty 20 pitches from Luke after error then walk.
We are all very tired, did well to turn this one around late and hold it there.
We did NOT lose this game.
We need another catcher waiting for us when we get home.
Whew, mets owed us for how terribly they lost to the Phillies.
Braves surely stole this win. Teheran allowed a home run, 10 baserunners and a wild pitch in 3 1/3 innings yet somehow only 2 runs. Freeman’s error. On offense we were 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position. How on Earth did we win this game? LolMets
Recapped
Have been lobbying for Wheeler as a closer since 2018. Would make any of the trades mentioned realizing they could all turn out to be overpays unless the Braves get to the World Series. Because, therein lies any value for any mid year trades.