Anyone else jumping off the nearest bridge after this happens?
Braves14
on February 7, 2019 at 11:33 am
I’d rather the Braves not overpay for just 2 years of Realmuto, who I think is good but overrated.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 11:43 am
It's Feb. 7 and we finally have what seems to be legit progress on the Realmuto front. The Braves' most recent serious discussion regarding the catcher occurred during the Winter Meetings. Gohara stealing 50 bases is more likely than J.T. being traded to Atlanta. https://t.co/nIcJxI55Uk
Peanut thinks it’s more likely for Gohara to steal 50 bases than for the Braves to trade for Realmuto.
1) I’m so tired of JT Realmuto. What the Marlins are doing is despicable. Will there be a turn about for the team’s fans that trade for Realmuto? Sure, but it won’t be a 180. Realmuto is doomed to be associated with the almost two year negotiation over what ultimately turns into two years at a discount, but not a steep discount. The Marlins, to get a B- prospect as the third player of the deal vs. a C+, has hurt Realmuto’s brand.
2) What does Peanut know anyway?
3) The ongoing Realmuto saga has also made some fans feel like the Braves will “lose” if they don’t land Realmuto. But if the offer is Flowers, Riley, and a pitching prospect…. wouldn’t you rather just have Riley and Flowers in 2019 anyway, let alone the years down the road? Is Realmuto going to be better than Flowers and Riley just this year? If the Marlins are successful and the trade gets nutty enough to include an actual pitching prospect that could help the team in 2019, then it gets even worse. Would you even put Riley and Fried in a deal? Riley and… Weigel?
If Flowers is not in the deal, what are you possibly going to trade Flowers for? Will he even recoup the third player in the deal? It all just seems kinda nutty, and I think it’s possible the Marlins end up just holding onto him, as crazy as that is to say. I see it all the time in real estate where a seller postures that there are higher offers out there, but legitimate and accurate valuation leads me to believe there isn’t possibly any more value than what has been offered by our side. And the seller eventually capitulates and takes an offer similar to what has been offered. At this point, you have to assume AA has to be looking at what he’s put on the table and saying, “There’s no way you’re going to beat this.”
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 11:44 am
Looks like we all had the same things on our minds.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 11:47 am
It is odd that people are treating Realmuto as if he’s Mike Piazza in his prime.
Dan
on February 7, 2019 at 11:50 am
“What does Peanut know anyway?”
He’s prepping Braves fans for when the team continues to do nothing. Same with his future tweets about how Kimbrel wants too much before he signs a 2-year deal with the Red Sox.
blazon
on February 7, 2019 at 11:54 am
Selig…
The only commish immortalized in VR, way ahead of the pack. I believe at the time he was still alive. Is he dead yet?
Alex…your postings these last few months after fully emerging from your editor’s responsibilities here and having some time on your hands are indicative to me of fresh horizons ahead for you – a book maybe?
Are you tempted? Tyler Kepner was on a MLB panel the other day, reminded me of you. Huge enthusiasm for the game, prodigious recall of names and everything associated with them. He was able to promo his new book, K, which i’m guessing is his first. Boyish, almost goofy, good looks made for TV. You? I’m a fan.
Rob, be patient, it will come.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 11:57 am
@5,@6
Let me just combine those. Convinced the Braves are not Trying to Win(TM), they have treated Realmuto as if he’s Mike Piazza in his prime.
Plus, I doubt Kimbrel signs a two-year deal. He will sign a deal for an extra year and about 20% above the AAV of the elite relievers that signed this offseason. No collusion, no depressed market, no shenanigans, etc.
Sorry for another real estate market analogy, but it fits. Nationwide, the sale price to list price ratio has widened. Sellers are taking even less for their properties than they are asking, on average. Locally, it’s even worse because our market is a little hotter than most. But that isn’t a reflection of the market health, per se; it’s a reflection of the asking prices of sellers collectively. And there are some wider observations to draw, but it simply means that sellers are keeping their properties on the market for longer unnecessarily. The value is the value, and they’re not seeing any greater gains by asking more. Same with these free agents. You can sign in December, or you can sign in February. You’re going to sign for the same amount. That’s not colluuuuuuuuuuuuuuusion or greedy owners. It’s hardball. It doesn’t work, but its hardball. Big whoop.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 12:02 pm
That last comment was littered with typos and I pretty much had to re-write it.
I don’t care if we get Realmuto. I want the Braves to make a move that will significantly improve the roster, whether that’s upgrading the uninspiring McFlowers platoon at catcher, getting an actual right fielder, shoring up the staff with a veteran starter, investing in some solid middle relief — there are a lot of ways to make this team better.
The only losing move is not to play.
gaz
on February 7, 2019 at 12:12 pm
Here’s the Braves problem though… Last year they were 22 games over .500 against the NL East and 4 games under against everyone else. If the Phillies are getting JTR, signing one of Harper and Machado in addition to Segura, McCutchen, etc. they will be significantly improved, the Nats will still have the best rotation in the league and the Mets should be vastly improved as well. The Braves have just run it back.
Point is they won’t be able to beat up on the East anymore and haven’t improved any area of need. This season is likely to be a slog around .500 and then we’ll hear the same argument next year that they’re finally ready to spend when they roll the Donaldson money into something but nothing really changes.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 12:13 pm
At minimum, you’ve got to trade one of Teheran, Soroka, Touki, Gohara, Fried, Wilson, or Weigel. Unless you really think you can use them all in 2019, then, at minimum, you have to do a “Bryse Wilson for a legit late-inning reliever” deal.
But look at the Cubs. It didn’t take long to see the impact of trading Jimenez+ for Quintan, trading for Hamels, Murphy, Davis, etc. Then leveraging themselves pretty extensively with Heyward, Zobrist, Lester, and Darvish. Do they even win the Central this year?
I think we obviously need to trade off some pitching, but I don’t consider holding on to the bulk of your prospects as “not playing”.
If the Braves decide against making any significant moves to improve the lineup, the starting rotation, or the bullpen, then I don’t see how you could regard that as anything other than “not playing.”
Tanto
on February 7, 2019 at 12:41 pm
@3 — Two weeks into the season, no one will remember how long the Realmuto negotiations took. I honestly could not even ballpark the date of any major offseason transaction in the last twenty years. (Except maybe the first Kimbrel trade, which I will always remember as having taken place on the last day of Spring Training.) The offseason’s just a big indistinct blur; people remember what happened, but not when or how long it took. People will judge the Realmuto trade purely on the fates of the players involved, not the storyline around it.
Pop quiz: Without looking it up, what was the date Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees?
The long and the short of it is that the other teams in the division have all gotten materially better, and the Braves are crossing their fingers that none of them have gotten enough better to close the distance between them from 2018. After five years of rebuilding, I was hoping for a more ambitious approach, and I can’t say that I’m not disappointed as a fan at their offseason. Maybe each individual move you could make the argument that they’re better off having not done it, but in aggregate, that just means you end up not doing anything. Few teams win championships by sitting on their hands and hoping.
Dan
on February 7, 2019 at 12:44 pm
Yeah, I’m sorry, but I can’t help but see how proactively the Mets and Phillies improved their teams, and be frustrated. It just feels like Anthopoulos was so paralyzed by fear of “overpaying” that he ended up doing next to nothing outside of giving a 1-year deal to Donaldson. The Markakis signing was the biggest white flag, basically tantamount to saying “I give up on signing or trading for an outfielder, and am punting till 2020 when hopefully I’ll be able to do my job, and if not… well, he has an option for that year.”
There were a hundred good relievers available via trade and free agency, no one can convince me it was just too hard to find one.
Hambone
on February 7, 2019 at 1:07 pm
So the Marlins would rather have a 20 year old pitcher with an elbow injury than Austin Riley? Hmmm…
Braves14
on February 7, 2019 at 1:13 pm
I would like to add that I find it is unlikely that the Braves trade Flowers, who just was extended to a team friendly deal.
If they deal him then it’s a bad look for the organization. “Oh, I may sign a deal that helps the team but they may screw me and trade me as soon as possible anyway. Why would I want to sign with them?”
MikeM
on February 7, 2019 at 1:53 pm
There is a real possibility that the goal for Braves ownership is something short of “field one of the best teams in baseball.”
I’m afraid the more likely situation is they view success as maximizing profits and fielding a team that is “competitive” – a team that will stay in the hunt through September, win a wild card spot 50% of the time, win the division 20% of the time, and punch a ticket to the playoffs where, theoretically, anything can happen.
They can do all of the above and print money. The extra revenue and profits from tickets/concessions from a team that wins the NL East wire-to-wire compared to a team that hangs around all year probably doesn’t impact ticket sales or profit all that much. They absolutely COULD spend the money on Harper or Machado, but they have set a budget based on some calculus and choose not to spend.
We the fans want the goal to be fielding a legit top-5 team and WS contender, and for anything less to be failure. I’m increasingly worried that the corporate overlords don’t view it that way. Liberty Media isn’t Mike Ilitch, and won’t spend more money just to have better championship odds.
King
on February 7, 2019 at 2:04 pm
The Braves have added, by signing Donaldson. Moving Camargo to the bench adds value to, because it won’t be the black hole it was last season.
Looking around the division, the Mets are the only team I look at and think, “they could be scary.” They need to stay healthy, however, which rarely happens there.
The Nationals aren’t bad, but that order is less imposing without Harper. To this point, they’ve basically swapped Harper for Corbin, which I wouldn’t do.
The Phillies need more, I think. As has been said, if they get Realmuto, plus Harper and/or Machado; then I think they’re neck and neck with the Braves.
Atlanta will have Donaldson, Freeman and Acuna swinging in the order. That’s the best “heart of the order” in the division. The team has weak spots, but the entire division does.
The ongoing Realmuto saga has also made some fans feel like the Braves will “lose” if they don’t land Realmuto. But if the offer is Flowers, Riley, and a pitching prospect…. wouldn’t you rather just have Riley and Flowers in 2019 anyway […] Is Realmuto going to be better than Flowers and Riley just this year?
You gotta stop hogging all the good drugs, my man.
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 2:17 pm
The long and the short of it is that the other teams in the division have all gotten materially better, and the Braves are crossing their fingers that none of them have gotten enough better to close the distance between them from 2018. After five years of rebuilding, I was hoping for a more ambitious approach, and I can’t say that I’m not disappointed as a fan at their offseason. Maybe each individual move you could make the argument that they’re better off having not done it, but in aggregate, that just means you end up not doing anything. Few teams win championships by sitting on their hands and hoping.
Perfectly stated.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 2:20 pm
Well, “perfectly stated” if we just magically pretend that Josh Donaldson, a perennial friggin’ MVP candidate, doesn’t actually exist.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 2:21 pm
Great. Freaking great. Ryan Flaherty signed with the Indians. Thanks a lot, Liberty Media.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 2:24 pm
If they Braves do nothing else this off season – and we don’t know what will shake out in the next couple of weeks or in spring training itself – but if NOTHING ELSE HAPPENS, the at bats taken by Ryan Flaherty, Preston Tucker, Peter Bourjos and Danny Santana (combined) will be taken by Josh Donaldson. To run around and say this team has “done nothing” is to be utterly and completely removed from anything resembling reality.
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 2:26 pm
Well, “perfectly stated” if we just magically pretend that Josh Donaldson, a perennial friggin’ MVP candidate, doesn’t actually exist.
Donaldson isn’t enough, Sam, unless the plan is to hope we catch fire in the playoffs.
He’s not nothing, and yet he’s not enough. This season won’t be Donaldson’s fault.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 2:31 pm
Donaldson isn’t enough, Sam, unless the plan is to hope we catch fire in the playoffs.
What if we plan to have Donaldson significantly improve 3B offensively, have Ronald Acuna be a major upgrade from Preston Tucker and Danny Santana in the OF, and have all of those appearances by Ryan Flaherty, Jose Batista and Rio Ruiz go to Camargo?
Stop pretending this team hasn’t improved. Yes, it would be really great if they still jumped in on Harper or Machado. But stop pretending they have stood still. They haven’t. That’s simply counter to reality.
Roger
on February 7, 2019 at 2:35 pm
@10 I’m with Alex on this. They need Maverick to engage or else lose the battle.
A trade of some sort needs to be made. I was for Realmuto because that was all there is left to do. I don’t think the Braves will sign a big FA unless they can loosen up the roster and get rid of some more payroll (i.e. Teheran or O’Day).
There have been so many possibilities this winter and so many big trades that it has become extremely frustrating that the Braves don’t participate. I wonder if this is some leftover resentment from the way that Coppy treated trading partners. If Realmuto goes to the Phillies for what seems to be an underwhelming return then it’s not a matter of trading “in the division”.
I am losing faith in AA. So far, he’s only traded with the Dodgers and poached the Orioles. I’m not sure he’s capable of getting anyone else to trade with him.
@8 Rob, many homes here in central Maryland still go for more than list and sell in less than a week (and not McMansions either). Was a complete culture shock for me coming from the South.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 2:38 pm
@21 Just give up more for a better player with more control.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 2:39 pm
It’s like you guys have no idea that Alex Anthopoulos existed prior to signing with Atlanta.
gaz
on February 7, 2019 at 2:40 pm
Let’s see if Donaldson can stay healthy and then judge whether you’re right about whether they’ve improved or not. Theoretically if you get Donaldson from 2016 then yes, but he played 113 games in 2017 and 52 in 2018 which wouldn’t really help that much.
In any case, the sum totality of the Braves grand vision so far has been 1 season of Donaldson at $23 million and a bunch of pitching prospects they seem content to just let figure their shit out in the majors while theoretically being a world series contender. Is it hard to see why people see this as an underwhelming plan?
MikeM
on February 7, 2019 at 2:41 pm
Sam, you seem to be boldly assuming Donaldson can be penciled in for 162 games. He hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. Yes, it’s possible he plays a full, healthy season and hits like an MVP. But there is a very real chance he starts less than 70% of games.
So maybe Carmago fills in AND doesn’t regress. Well every start Carmago makes at 3rd is one he isn’t making in RF. This lineup still needs some more depth and starpower.
Chief Nocahoma
on February 7, 2019 at 2:43 pm
Liberty Media is bad.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 2:45 pm
Sixto is a heck of a centerpiece. Fangraphs has him as a 60. We actually don’t have a 60 in their system according to Fangraphs. Will Stewart is not much at all.
Does someone remember what our international signing dollars situation is for 2019?
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 2:45 pm
Stop pretending this team hasn’t improved.
Is the goal “improvement,” or is the goal to win the World Series?
Is this a team that’s going to contend for a championship?
Yes, it would be really great if they still jumped in on Harper or Machado. But stop pretending they have stood still. They haven’t. That’s simply counter to reality.
Literally the only way to win this argument is to pretend that the goalposts are sitting at “improvement.”
So here’s the final deal… The third piece is not even on the Phillies top 30. If AA had been willing to deal Newcomb, Wright, Flowers, and Jackson, that package would have been much better.
The Marlins get a decent but marginal C, a top pitching prospect in A ball (as opposed to near ML ready), and an A ball pitcher. Oh, and maybe an international bonus slot. So three players not four. And certainly less than what the Braves should have been offering.
Is it better than Barnhardt and India? I dunno. Better than Verdugo and Pederson? Mejia and something from the Padres?
All of that and I think the Marlins took the lesser deal. Even if Sixto becomes an Ace(TM), I’m not sure the deal looks any better to me. And he’s at least 2-3 years away from the majors.
Dan
on February 7, 2019 at 2:49 pm
“In any case, the sum totality of the Braves grand vision so far has been 1 season of Donaldson at $23 million”
Don’t forget McCann. I can’t tell you how many Braves fans I’ve seen on Twitter throughout this offseason saying “we got Donaldson and McCann!” or “don’t overpay for Realmuto, McCann will put up 90% of what he can for a lot less.”
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 2:58 pm
Liberty Media is bad.
So, if you were to make a pie chart of blame, I don’t know how to apportion it between:
– the Braves ownership is terrible
– the Braves got screwed over by the overall ownership situation this offseason
– AA failed
I don’t particularly care to know the truth either. What does it matter?
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 2:59 pm
It shouldn’t take Sixto very long to reach the majors. The Marlins know their process is going to take a few seasons too.
I don’t discount signing Donaldson, but I don’t think it’s as simple as replacing Flaherty et al’s ABs with JD’s. Flaherty really only played when he did because of an injury to Camargo. Some of Tucker & Culbertson’s ABs were due to Acuna’s injury IIRC. Injuries will happen this year too – if not to JD then somewhere else in the order. We were relatively fortunate injury-wise last year, all things considered.
If JD stays healthy and returns to form then yea, the lineup improves, even if Markakis and McFlowers regress. Does it improve enough to vault us from fringe-y playoff team to legit contender? Ehhh…
@37, the McCann acquisition is roughly as big a deal as the Markakis acquisition. At this stage of their career, both are strictly “professional hitters.”
gaz
on February 7, 2019 at 3:12 pm
McCann was .212//301/.339 last year, Markakis regressed hard in the second half. The league figured out Albies and Swanson has never taken a meaningful step forward. Even if we get a full season out of Donaldson the rest of the lineup has a lot of questions/holes so it’s REALLY hard to say the team will be improved. What’s more, all that could go pretty well and the team will win less games simply because they weren’t that good last year and got lucky with a crap division that suddenly is looking very strong.
Tanto
on February 7, 2019 at 3:19 pm
The absolute best-case scenario for the lineup is that you have three of the best position players in baseball and then a bunch of average-ish guys everywhere else. I don’t think that gets it done when the pitching is also super-sketchy, top to bottom. Any kind of significant injury to one of the three important guys (none of whom has been a paragon of health) is team-wrecking.
The projections all have the Braves in the 82-88 win range, fringy playoff contenders. That seems about right to me. I wish they were better. I think they could have been. Barring significant young player breakouts, I don’t think they will be.
By the way, Frank Robinson just died. You probably know that he was a great player. But few remember how great. He was worth 5.5 wins a year for 20 years, and that’s pretty much what he did, year in and year out. He was Carl Yastrzemski or Roberto Clemente… but just a little bit better.
Dusty
on February 7, 2019 at 3:25 pm
FWIW, JTR is a horrible framer and I’m glad the Phils got him and not us.
Sam Hutcheson
on February 7, 2019 at 3:31 pm
Somebody ping me after all the kids get their DOOOOOOOOOOMMMEEEEDDD!!s out.
Hambone
on February 7, 2019 at 3:40 pm
Will Braves catchers throw out a single runner this year? I know I’ll be tuning in to find out.
Chief Nocahoma
on February 7, 2019 at 3:43 pm
@38
75/5/20 IMO. I know you said you didn’t care.
75% Liberty Media blows
5% the current “collusive” environment
20% AA failed and only signed his drinking buddy from Toronto and a fat washed up catcher who will only sell tickets to thots from Rome, GA.
Adam R.
on February 7, 2019 at 3:49 pm
Great. Freaking great. Ryan Flaherty signed with the Indians. Thanks a lot, Liberty Media.
LOL this was the laugh I needed.
Donny Simpson
on February 7, 2019 at 4:03 pm
What could the Braves be up to? Obviously, it hasn’t been this as they haven’t been in on Realmuto since the winter meetings. Is there anything else out there? Will it be meaningful enough?
I don’t plan to spend anything on the Braves until I see them making moves to win it all.
Dusty
on February 7, 2019 at 5:01 pm
52-I on the other hand, loved the team from last year and think we have some excellent young players. We added a perennial MVP candidate to that and should hope to see some improvement from the youngsters. I can’t wait for the season to start, not that I wouldn’t like to see them improve more, but I don’t want to overpay for an overrated catcher when we have already signed two to play this year.
Rob Copenhaver
on February 7, 2019 at 5:11 pm
New post to commemorate the end of Realmutopalooza.
gaz
on February 7, 2019 at 5:19 pm
@ 53
At some point you have to ask what it is we’re doing here though… the 76ers spent 4 years patiently acquiring assets and now have a lineup with 4 all-stars because they’ve pushed their chips in and gone for it. Will the Braves ever go for it? What do we get from having 15 of the same pitching prospect if they don’t cash some of them in for someone useful right now? What do we get from hoarding money and building a new stadium if they are afraid to sign a free agent to a long term deal? What’s the plan here, when do we go for it?
kc
on February 7, 2019 at 5:57 pm
I think the Braves have decided to move on once we sign Mac.
Use code “Journal” for a 5% discount.
Phillies gaining momentum in acquiring Realmuto:
https://www.mlb.com/news/marlins-want-sixto-sanchez-for-jt-realmuto/c-303603116?tid=282421090
Anyone else jumping off the nearest bridge after this happens?
I’d rather the Braves not overpay for just 2 years of Realmuto, who I think is good but overrated.
Peanut thinks it’s more likely for Gohara to steal 50 bases than for the Braves to trade for Realmuto.
1) I’m so tired of JT Realmuto. What the Marlins are doing is despicable. Will there be a turn about for the team’s fans that trade for Realmuto? Sure, but it won’t be a 180. Realmuto is doomed to be associated with the almost two year negotiation over what ultimately turns into two years at a discount, but not a steep discount. The Marlins, to get a B- prospect as the third player of the deal vs. a C+, has hurt Realmuto’s brand.
2) What does Peanut know anyway?
3) The ongoing Realmuto saga has also made some fans feel like the Braves will “lose” if they don’t land Realmuto. But if the offer is Flowers, Riley, and a pitching prospect…. wouldn’t you rather just have Riley and Flowers in 2019 anyway, let alone the years down the road? Is Realmuto going to be better than Flowers and Riley just this year? If the Marlins are successful and the trade gets nutty enough to include an actual pitching prospect that could help the team in 2019, then it gets even worse. Would you even put Riley and Fried in a deal? Riley and… Weigel?
If Flowers is not in the deal, what are you possibly going to trade Flowers for? Will he even recoup the third player in the deal? It all just seems kinda nutty, and I think it’s possible the Marlins end up just holding onto him, as crazy as that is to say. I see it all the time in real estate where a seller postures that there are higher offers out there, but legitimate and accurate valuation leads me to believe there isn’t possibly any more value than what has been offered by our side. And the seller eventually capitulates and takes an offer similar to what has been offered. At this point, you have to assume AA has to be looking at what he’s put on the table and saying, “There’s no way you’re going to beat this.”
Looks like we all had the same things on our minds.
It is odd that people are treating Realmuto as if he’s Mike Piazza in his prime.
“What does Peanut know anyway?”
He’s prepping Braves fans for when the team continues to do nothing. Same with his future tweets about how Kimbrel wants too much before he signs a 2-year deal with the Red Sox.
Selig…
The only commish immortalized in VR, way ahead of the pack. I believe at the time he was still alive. Is he dead yet?
Alex…your postings these last few months after fully emerging from your editor’s responsibilities here and having some time on your hands are indicative to me of fresh horizons ahead for you – a book maybe?
Are you tempted? Tyler Kepner was on a MLB panel the other day, reminded me of you. Huge enthusiasm for the game, prodigious recall of names and everything associated with them. He was able to promo his new book, K, which i’m guessing is his first. Boyish, almost goofy, good looks made for TV. You? I’m a fan.
Rob, be patient, it will come.
@5,@6
Let me just combine those. Convinced the Braves are not Trying to Win(TM), they have treated Realmuto as if he’s Mike Piazza in his prime.
Plus, I doubt Kimbrel signs a two-year deal. He will sign a deal for an extra year and about 20% above the AAV of the elite relievers that signed this offseason. No collusion, no depressed market, no shenanigans, etc.
Sorry for another real estate market analogy, but it fits. Nationwide, the sale price to list price ratio has widened. Sellers are taking even less for their properties than they are asking, on average. Locally, it’s even worse because our market is a little hotter than most. But that isn’t a reflection of the market health, per se; it’s a reflection of the asking prices of sellers collectively. And there are some wider observations to draw, but it simply means that sellers are keeping their properties on the market for longer unnecessarily. The value is the value, and they’re not seeing any greater gains by asking more. Same with these free agents. You can sign in December, or you can sign in February. You’re going to sign for the same amount. That’s not colluuuuuuuuuuuuuuusion or greedy owners. It’s hardball. It doesn’t work, but its hardball. Big whoop.
That last comment was littered with typos and I pretty much had to re-write it.
I don’t care if we get Realmuto. I want the Braves to make a move that will significantly improve the roster, whether that’s upgrading the uninspiring McFlowers platoon at catcher, getting an actual right fielder, shoring up the staff with a veteran starter, investing in some solid middle relief — there are a lot of ways to make this team better.
The only losing move is not to play.
Here’s the Braves problem though… Last year they were 22 games over .500 against the NL East and 4 games under against everyone else. If the Phillies are getting JTR, signing one of Harper and Machado in addition to Segura, McCutchen, etc. they will be significantly improved, the Nats will still have the best rotation in the league and the Mets should be vastly improved as well. The Braves have just run it back.
Point is they won’t be able to beat up on the East anymore and haven’t improved any area of need. This season is likely to be a slog around .500 and then we’ll hear the same argument next year that they’re finally ready to spend when they roll the Donaldson money into something but nothing really changes.
At minimum, you’ve got to trade one of Teheran, Soroka, Touki, Gohara, Fried, Wilson, or Weigel. Unless you really think you can use them all in 2019, then, at minimum, you have to do a “Bryse Wilson for a legit late-inning reliever” deal.
But look at the Cubs. It didn’t take long to see the impact of trading Jimenez+ for Quintan, trading for Hamels, Murphy, Davis, etc. Then leveraging themselves pretty extensively with Heyward, Zobrist, Lester, and Darvish. Do they even win the Central this year?
I think we obviously need to trade off some pitching, but I don’t consider holding on to the bulk of your prospects as “not playing”.
If the Braves decide against making any significant moves to improve the lineup, the starting rotation, or the bullpen, then I don’t see how you could regard that as anything other than “not playing.”
@3 — Two weeks into the season, no one will remember how long the Realmuto negotiations took. I honestly could not even ballpark the date of any major offseason transaction in the last twenty years. (Except maybe the first Kimbrel trade, which I will always remember as having taken place on the last day of Spring Training.) The offseason’s just a big indistinct blur; people remember what happened, but not when or how long it took. People will judge the Realmuto trade purely on the fates of the players involved, not the storyline around it.
Pop quiz: Without looking it up, what was the date Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees?
The long and the short of it is that the other teams in the division have all gotten materially better, and the Braves are crossing their fingers that none of them have gotten enough better to close the distance between them from 2018. After five years of rebuilding, I was hoping for a more ambitious approach, and I can’t say that I’m not disappointed as a fan at their offseason. Maybe each individual move you could make the argument that they’re better off having not done it, but in aggregate, that just means you end up not doing anything. Few teams win championships by sitting on their hands and hoping.
Yeah, I’m sorry, but I can’t help but see how proactively the Mets and Phillies improved their teams, and be frustrated. It just feels like Anthopoulos was so paralyzed by fear of “overpaying” that he ended up doing next to nothing outside of giving a 1-year deal to Donaldson. The Markakis signing was the biggest white flag, basically tantamount to saying “I give up on signing or trading for an outfielder, and am punting till 2020 when hopefully I’ll be able to do my job, and if not… well, he has an option for that year.”
There were a hundred good relievers available via trade and free agency, no one can convince me it was just too hard to find one.
So the Marlins would rather have a 20 year old pitcher with an elbow injury than Austin Riley? Hmmm…
I would like to add that I find it is unlikely that the Braves trade Flowers, who just was extended to a team friendly deal.
If they deal him then it’s a bad look for the organization. “Oh, I may sign a deal that helps the team but they may screw me and trade me as soon as possible anyway. Why would I want to sign with them?”
There is a real possibility that the goal for Braves ownership is something short of “field one of the best teams in baseball.”
I’m afraid the more likely situation is they view success as maximizing profits and fielding a team that is “competitive” – a team that will stay in the hunt through September, win a wild card spot 50% of the time, win the division 20% of the time, and punch a ticket to the playoffs where, theoretically, anything can happen.
They can do all of the above and print money. The extra revenue and profits from tickets/concessions from a team that wins the NL East wire-to-wire compared to a team that hangs around all year probably doesn’t impact ticket sales or profit all that much. They absolutely COULD spend the money on Harper or Machado, but they have set a budget based on some calculus and choose not to spend.
We the fans want the goal to be fielding a legit top-5 team and WS contender, and for anything less to be failure. I’m increasingly worried that the corporate overlords don’t view it that way. Liberty Media isn’t Mike Ilitch, and won’t spend more money just to have better championship odds.
The Braves have added, by signing Donaldson. Moving Camargo to the bench adds value to, because it won’t be the black hole it was last season.
Looking around the division, the Mets are the only team I look at and think, “they could be scary.” They need to stay healthy, however, which rarely happens there.
The Nationals aren’t bad, but that order is less imposing without Harper. To this point, they’ve basically swapped Harper for Corbin, which I wouldn’t do.
The Phillies need more, I think. As has been said, if they get Realmuto, plus Harper and/or Machado; then I think they’re neck and neck with the Braves.
Atlanta will have Donaldson, Freeman and Acuna swinging in the order. That’s the best “heart of the order” in the division. The team has weak spots, but the entire division does.
My intuition was that the Nats are the team to beat. Sure enough… Fangraphs team projections:
Nationals 91-71
Mets 85-77
Braves 82-80
Phillies (pre-Realmuto and Harper/Machado) 79-93
Marlins 68-94
The ongoing Realmuto saga has also made some fans feel like the Braves will “lose” if they don’t land Realmuto. But if the offer is Flowers, Riley, and a pitching prospect…. wouldn’t you rather just have Riley and Flowers in 2019 anyway […] Is Realmuto going to be better than Flowers and Riley just this year?
You gotta stop hogging all the good drugs, my man.
The long and the short of it is that the other teams in the division have all gotten materially better, and the Braves are crossing their fingers that none of them have gotten enough better to close the distance between them from 2018. After five years of rebuilding, I was hoping for a more ambitious approach, and I can’t say that I’m not disappointed as a fan at their offseason. Maybe each individual move you could make the argument that they’re better off having not done it, but in aggregate, that just means you end up not doing anything. Few teams win championships by sitting on their hands and hoping.
Perfectly stated.
Well, “perfectly stated” if we just magically pretend that Josh Donaldson, a perennial friggin’ MVP candidate, doesn’t actually exist.
Great. Freaking great. Ryan Flaherty signed with the Indians. Thanks a lot, Liberty Media.
If they Braves do nothing else this off season – and we don’t know what will shake out in the next couple of weeks or in spring training itself – but if NOTHING ELSE HAPPENS, the at bats taken by Ryan Flaherty, Preston Tucker, Peter Bourjos and Danny Santana (combined) will be taken by Josh Donaldson. To run around and say this team has “done nothing” is to be utterly and completely removed from anything resembling reality.
Well, “perfectly stated” if we just magically pretend that Josh Donaldson, a perennial friggin’ MVP candidate, doesn’t actually exist.
Donaldson isn’t enough, Sam, unless the plan is to hope we catch fire in the playoffs.
He’s not nothing, and yet he’s not enough. This season won’t be Donaldson’s fault.
What if we plan to have Donaldson significantly improve 3B offensively, have Ronald Acuna be a major upgrade from Preston Tucker and Danny Santana in the OF, and have all of those appearances by Ryan Flaherty, Jose Batista and Rio Ruiz go to Camargo?
Stop pretending this team hasn’t improved. Yes, it would be really great if they still jumped in on Harper or Machado. But stop pretending they have stood still. They haven’t. That’s simply counter to reality.
@10 I’m with Alex on this. They need Maverick to engage or else lose the battle.
A trade of some sort needs to be made. I was for Realmuto because that was all there is left to do. I don’t think the Braves will sign a big FA unless they can loosen up the roster and get rid of some more payroll (i.e. Teheran or O’Day).
There have been so many possibilities this winter and so many big trades that it has become extremely frustrating that the Braves don’t participate. I wonder if this is some leftover resentment from the way that Coppy treated trading partners. If Realmuto goes to the Phillies for what seems to be an underwhelming return then it’s not a matter of trading “in the division”.
I am losing faith in AA. So far, he’s only traded with the Dodgers and poached the Orioles. I’m not sure he’s capable of getting anyone else to trade with him.
@8 Rob, many homes here in central Maryland still go for more than list and sell in less than a week (and not McMansions either). Was a complete culture shock for me coming from the South.
@21 Just give up more for a better player with more control.
It’s like you guys have no idea that Alex Anthopoulos existed prior to signing with Atlanta.
Let’s see if Donaldson can stay healthy and then judge whether you’re right about whether they’ve improved or not. Theoretically if you get Donaldson from 2016 then yes, but he played 113 games in 2017 and 52 in 2018 which wouldn’t really help that much.
In any case, the sum totality of the Braves grand vision so far has been 1 season of Donaldson at $23 million and a bunch of pitching prospects they seem content to just let figure their shit out in the majors while theoretically being a world series contender. Is it hard to see why people see this as an underwhelming plan?
Sam, you seem to be boldly assuming Donaldson can be penciled in for 162 games. He hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. Yes, it’s possible he plays a full, healthy season and hits like an MVP. But there is a very real chance he starts less than 70% of games.
So maybe Carmago fills in AND doesn’t regress. Well every start Carmago makes at 3rd is one he isn’t making in RF. This lineup still needs some more depth and starpower.
Liberty Media is bad.
Sixto is a heck of a centerpiece. Fangraphs has him as a 60. We actually don’t have a 60 in their system according to Fangraphs. Will Stewart is not much at all.
Does someone remember what our international signing dollars situation is for 2019?
Stop pretending this team hasn’t improved.
Is the goal “improvement,” or is the goal to win the World Series?
Is this a team that’s going to contend for a championship?
Yes, it would be really great if they still jumped in on Harper or Machado. But stop pretending they have stood still. They haven’t. That’s simply counter to reality.
Literally the only way to win this argument is to pretend that the goalposts are sitting at “improvement.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/phillies-to-acquire-j-t-realmuto.html
So here’s the final deal… The third piece is not even on the Phillies top 30. If AA had been willing to deal Newcomb, Wright, Flowers, and Jackson, that package would have been much better.
The Marlins get a decent but marginal C, a top pitching prospect in A ball (as opposed to near ML ready), and an A ball pitcher. Oh, and maybe an international bonus slot. So three players not four. And certainly less than what the Braves should have been offering.
Is it better than Barnhardt and India? I dunno. Better than Verdugo and Pederson? Mejia and something from the Padres?
All of that and I think the Marlins took the lesser deal. Even if Sixto becomes an Ace(TM), I’m not sure the deal looks any better to me. And he’s at least 2-3 years away from the majors.
“In any case, the sum totality of the Braves grand vision so far has been 1 season of Donaldson at $23 million”
Don’t forget McCann. I can’t tell you how many Braves fans I’ve seen on Twitter throughout this offseason saying “we got Donaldson and McCann!” or “don’t overpay for Realmuto, McCann will put up 90% of what he can for a lot less.”
Liberty Media is bad.
So, if you were to make a pie chart of blame, I don’t know how to apportion it between:
– the Braves ownership is terrible
– the Braves got screwed over by the overall ownership situation this offseason
– AA failed
I don’t particularly care to know the truth either. What does it matter?
It shouldn’t take Sixto very long to reach the majors. The Marlins know their process is going to take a few seasons too.
Obviously, I am aware that we got Donaldson, as I wrote a fair number of words about why I think it’s good.
http://bravesjournal.us/2018/12/17/josh-donaldson/
But it ain’t enough.
Here’s the official team P.R. response from
PravdaBowman:https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/braves-spring-training-preview/c-303650234
I don’t discount signing Donaldson, but I don’t think it’s as simple as replacing Flaherty et al’s ABs with JD’s. Flaherty really only played when he did because of an injury to Camargo. Some of Tucker & Culbertson’s ABs were due to Acuna’s injury IIRC. Injuries will happen this year too – if not to JD then somewhere else in the order. We were relatively fortunate injury-wise last year, all things considered.
If JD stays healthy and returns to form then yea, the lineup improves, even if Markakis and McFlowers regress. Does it improve enough to vault us from fringe-y playoff team to legit contender? Ehhh…
@37, the McCann acquisition is roughly as big a deal as the Markakis acquisition. At this stage of their career, both are strictly “professional hitters.”
McCann was .212//301/.339 last year, Markakis regressed hard in the second half. The league figured out Albies and Swanson has never taken a meaningful step forward. Even if we get a full season out of Donaldson the rest of the lineup has a lot of questions/holes so it’s REALLY hard to say the team will be improved. What’s more, all that could go pretty well and the team will win less games simply because they weren’t that good last year and got lucky with a crap division that suddenly is looking very strong.
The absolute best-case scenario for the lineup is that you have three of the best position players in baseball and then a bunch of average-ish guys everywhere else. I don’t think that gets it done when the pitching is also super-sketchy, top to bottom. Any kind of significant injury to one of the three important guys (none of whom has been a paragon of health) is team-wrecking.
The projections all have the Braves in the 82-88 win range, fringy playoff contenders. That seems about right to me. I wish they were better. I think they could have been. Barring significant young player breakouts, I don’t think they will be.
By the way, Frank Robinson just died. You probably know that he was a great player. But few remember how great. He was worth 5.5 wins a year for 20 years, and that’s pretty much what he did, year in and year out. He was Carl Yastrzemski or Roberto Clemente… but just a little bit better.
FWIW, JTR is a horrible framer and I’m glad the Phils got him and not us.
Somebody ping me after all the kids get their DOOOOOOOOOOMMMEEEEDDD!!s out.
Will Braves catchers throw out a single runner this year? I know I’ll be tuning in to find out.
@38
75/5/20 IMO. I know you said you didn’t care.
75% Liberty Media blows
5% the current “collusive” environment
20% AA failed and only signed his drinking buddy from Toronto and a fat washed up catcher who will only sell tickets to thots from Rome, GA.
Great. Freaking great. Ryan Flaherty signed with the Indians. Thanks a lot, Liberty Media.
LOL this was the laugh I needed.
What could the Braves be up to? Obviously, it hasn’t been this as they haven’t been in on Realmuto since the winter meetings. Is there anything else out there? Will it be meaningful enough?
I don’t plan to spend anything on the Braves until I see them making moves to win it all.
52-I on the other hand, loved the team from last year and think we have some excellent young players. We added a perennial MVP candidate to that and should hope to see some improvement from the youngsters. I can’t wait for the season to start, not that I wouldn’t like to see them improve more, but I don’t want to overpay for an overrated catcher when we have already signed two to play this year.
New post to commemorate the end of Realmutopalooza.
@ 53
At some point you have to ask what it is we’re doing here though… the 76ers spent 4 years patiently acquiring assets and now have a lineup with 4 all-stars because they’ve pushed their chips in and gone for it. Will the Braves ever go for it? What do we get from having 15 of the same pitching prospect if they don’t cash some of them in for someone useful right now? What do we get from hoarding money and building a new stadium if they are afraid to sign a free agent to a long term deal? What’s the plan here, when do we go for it?
I think the Braves have decided to move on once we sign Mac.