Sometimes late in a season a team with no chance has multiple injuries and no initiative. I certainly feared that a dead corpse bounce might bring the “Team Formerly Known As the Giants” some initiative. They at least didn’t forfeit.
The enigma wrapped in a conundrum known as Sean Newcombe was right back where he was pre all star break. HOW you can walk over and over in game after game and get no walks through 6 is a testament to inconsistency and a opposing team playing out the string. 93 pitches through 6 innings, 3 hits, 8 strikeouts (to go with zero walks) and one run (earned) worked nicely except MAYBE get another inning. Shane Carle, Jonny Venters, and A. J. Minter (Carlentmint) supplied 3 no hit no walk innings and if the Braves didn’t just do the “no scoring” thing, that might be a victory.
Well the offense tied it in the 4th when Kurt Suzuki singled in Freddie Freeman. In the 7th, the Braves went up for good when Dansby Swanson hit a sac fly and Ozzie Albies scored. In the 9th, the Braves tacked on a couple of more runs for the final.
Meanwhile, a continent away, a big baseball story broke. The Phillies ground crew didn’t cover the field Sunday and by Monday afternoon, rain had made the field unplayable. So the gNats get to play a doubleheader today or tomorrow. So, we only picked up a half game. MLB should have a rule on this. If the field is unplayable because of incompetence, you forfeit.
my field is wet
the game last night ’tis best we all forget
except the Braves
for them it’s the latest in a string of saves.
If the Braves finish 9-9, the Phillies have to go 16-4 to win the division. 🙂
September 11, 2018 at 8:46 am
Whatever’s bet in Vegas stays in Vegas
Boston Red Sox 3/1
Houston Astros 17/4
Chicago Cubs 7/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 8/1
New York Yankees 8/1
Cleveland Indians 9/1
Colorado Rockies 12/1
Oakland Athletics 12/1
Atlanta Braves 14/1
Milwaukee Brewers 20/1
St. Louis Cardinals 25/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 28/1
Philadelphia Phillies 33/1
Overpriced…Cubs/Dodgers/Yankees
Underpriced…Indians/Braves
Perfectly priced…Phillies!
Suggestion
If you’re an avid Braves fan and therefore quietly confident we will triumph this fall AND you happen to lust after a new Porsche convertible @ $100K place a wager of $7000 only and start cleaning out your garage. 14/1 will do that for you. A new convertible in October, what better a symbol to remind your neighbors how hardy you are and that the Braves won it all.
I still have my $100 ticket purchased last November at the Bellagio for ATL to win WS at 100:1.
Zero walk last night after a hundred or at least close to that in the past hundred innings.
How is that even possible?
Did they have a meeting and Snit just ordered them “no walks tonight, boys”? I don’t get it.
@4
Dusty!! congrats, good for you…if my math is correct that will more than pay the sales tax!
Seriously, i’m mad with myself i didn’t have the courage to do what you did. One grand would have bought the car. Well done you!
Minor detail of course is we must win the World Series.
Magic number is at… 15?
Looks to me like Oakland and (especially) the Yanks should be discounted a lot because of the wildcard game. That NY line says they are the slight favorites in a matchup with Houston. That is insane.
Overall the odds favor the AL winning the pennant about 58% of the time, which seems high for a series of 7 games.
6
Yes I wish it had been $1,000 at this point, but I’ll be plenty happy with a WS win and $10,000.
@5: Two factors. First, when you don’t fear a team you don’t nibble at the edges. Second, when the team you’re facing is bad, they swing at balls.
So while I’m hopeful at last night’s seeming control I’d like to see the same thing against a competent team before I get too impressed.
Carlentmint
cliff suggests a name to makes us squint
Oventrebel we remember fondly but vaguely
they were better though, we nod so sagely.
I don’t think we are ahead of schedule. We are WAY ahead of schedule. I really like this team. The personality, the enthusiasm of the players and the coaches, the youth of the team. It’s great.
A big question for this winter will be whether we want to keep Nick. I may seriously consider giving him the qualifying offer with full intention of keeping him for one more season just to see if he can repeat this season again.
Would Nick accept a one year deal? I doubt it.
Pass. I don’t care if his improvements seem sustainable. He’s going to be 35. There are going to be players to spend on or trade for who will be better values than Markakis at the QO.
Nick will be looking for his last multi-year deal so I doubt he will be amenable to the QO. I’d give him 2/22M just to buy time for Pache, assuming we can’t sign or trade for a better alternative. Some team will offer 3/28 and he will take it, however.
And there’s the rub — we need to improve the team to really have a shot at the WS, and right field is one of the spots where we have the most room for improvement. We will get another catcher and every other position on the the field is at 2.6WAR (Ender) or better. Harper costs nothing but money.
Now, if we resign Neck, do we have space for Harper? I don’t see it unless we trade Ender, which I am reluctant to do unless Acuna shows another gear defensively (which he may if the team tells him to work on it).
Another variation would be to resign Neck and turn Austen Riley into a 4 corners supersub. Should his bat force the issue about being a starter, well good! This decision needs to be made now, however, as he needs to go to instructional league and then a winter league to learn the outfield.
Only three Giants batters from last night have an on-base percentage above .300.
The Giants best player was Brandon Belt. That’s basically the equivalent of having your best offensive threat be Kurt Suzuki.
@16 huh. OK, if you put it like that… I get it.
If you plan on signing Harper, there is no need for Markakis.
It wouldn’t make any sense to pay 10+ M for a 4th outfielder. I’m curious in your scenario what Inciarte’s trade value would be.
Also would you rather have LF Acuna CF Harper RF Markakis or
LF Acuna CF Inciarte RF Harper?
I don’t think we go after Harper. He may be a cancer.
I do wonder if we package a deal that includes Austen Riley and a few young starters for a top of the rotation guy or a corner bat. I think Camargo has locked down third base.
If Neck will take a two year deal, I’d bring him back.
Harper’s teammates all seem to like him. He’s probably a little bit of a red-ass, but I don’t think *he’s* the reason those Nats clubhouses have all been a mess. The main thing with him is that he’s going to get a huge salary but he isn’t the kind of charismatic center of attention who can take the spotlight away from teammates and let them stay under the radar.
That said, if the Braves sign Bryce Harper, the star of the team will still be Ronald Acuna. So I think that might not be a problem.
I will say, checking remaining schedules to see if we can win the division is much better than checking remaining schedules to see what draft pick we will get.
Inciarte’s trade value is fairly easy to figure:
3 years at $22.1M
Option at $9M or $1.02M buyout
Total salary: $23.12M for 3 years, $31.1M for 4
Production: Average just over 3 WAR for the last 3 years, so assuming average decline (I am going with losing .25 WAR per year for players 28-30 and .5 WAR for 30+) as he passes age 27 we get:
2019 — 3 WAR = $27M
2020 — 2.75 WAR = $24.75M
2021 — 2.5 WAR = $22.5M
2022 — 2 WAR = $18M
Total = $92.25M
So the implied excess value for the contract is:
$92.25 – $31.1 = $61.15M
To put it in the vernacular, his trade value is about what Pittsburgh gave up for Chris Archer. Of course he really only has value to currently good teams that need defensive help in the outfield which essentially means NYY, Mariners, A’s, Cleveland, Cards, Rocks and Snakes. NYY, A’s and Cards have promising minor leaguers to plug in.
An example of a trade might be Inciarte to the Rocks for Brendan Rogers and Peter Lambert. This is a fair trade but doesn’t address our needs, but really, none of the mentioned teams except the Cards really line up with our needs. From the cards the players needed might be Carson Kelly and Aroldis Garcia though there needs to be another player added from their side, maybe a B/B- guy like Oscar Mercado.
Wow, great stuff, snowshine. Thanks.
Even before snowshine’s very well constructed explanation of Ender’s value (and excess thereof), I’d be hard pressed to want to trade Inciarte for the scenario where the Braves retain Nick Markakis as well as sign Bryce Harper.
Barring some major discount, Kakes should just go get his last good contract. Maybe we’ll cross paths with him again in a couple of seasons when the team needs a bat for the bench.
There are a pretty compelling set of assets that the Braves can use to upgrade the roster: tons of pitching prospects, one of Riley/Camargo (or Dansby, for that matter), Inciarte (if you want to upgrade two OF spots), and $40M+ in cash. You can go shopping pretty lavishly with that. One of Riley/Camargo/Dansby have a huge amount of excess value, and it’s well-documented how highly the org views the upper minors prospects.
There are just simply so many routes to how the Braves could build off of this that I can’t even begin to speculate what the Braves might do before their mouthpieces start talking. Shoot, who’s to say they don’t make a completely out-of-left-field trade of, say, Foltynewicz for somebody. Who knows.
I agree with Sam that Newk’s strong performance does not change his status as the one member of the rotation I would not want to start a playoff game.
I could see us going after Blake Snell and/or Jameson Taillon. Maybe we kick the tires on Matt Chapman
@26 agreed, but at least it doesn’t cement the status fwiw. i.e. i have some faith in him in coming in for long relief if needed.
@27 There is about a 0% chance any of those three will be traded. Each is likely the premium asset on a team hoping to compete next year. Further, they are all two years away from arbitration. Look how long it took TB to trade Archer. Snell will be with them for five more years. And OAK won’t trade Chapman until at least after his first arb year (about when they traded Donaldson).
At least it’s reasonable to think the Angels might consider trading Trout.
If you want to find trade targets, look to teams who have a prime asset who do not plan on contending. Guys like Realmuto, Suarez/Gennett, Berrios/Rosario, Profar/Mazara, Bumgarner, Renfroe/Myers/Hedges. These are guys you might be able to trade for.
I don’t have to repeat what my opinion is on trades and FAs.
gNats up on Phils 2-0. The Phils feel like a team with no life left in them. The gNats, on the other hand, have some fight left even though management has given up.
Magic number is now 14. Could be 12 by tomorrow morning if things break right.
Phillies lose. Sean Doolittle looks like Seth Rogen.
I guess I pulled the trigger too soon since I posted @31 after the end of the 8th, but it still worked out.
Phils are more likely to finish 10 games out than to finish 1st.
If I were to bet on who will finish second in the East, I’d place money on the Nats, not the Phillies.
The Nationals seems like a bigger threat to the NL East crown than the Phillies at this point.
Is this really happening? I still can’t quite process this.
Another Phillies’ loss tonight and a Braves win, then we can start talking about Fredi Room
@ 30/35/36
Let’s be consistent please. I spent all afternoon willing the Nats on and now they’re ahead in the second game also.
Perhaps we can have a daily indicator posted here as things change. Who wants to cheer the enemy home.
If the Braves go 9-9 over the last 18, the Nats would have to win all their remaining games to take the crown. If the Braves go 6-12, the Nats would have to go 15-3. They aren’t much of a threat unless we really crap the bed.
Yeah, well, the Phils just had a 5-run 5th so there you go. Not dead yet.
The Phils haven’t been playing well (obviously), but they are still the far bigger threat just by virtue of the 7 games we have remaining with them.
I remember 2011 too well to count anyone out until we have clinched.
True dat. We need to be 8 games up before we play them.
The Phils will have to go for a four game series in Colorado. That will nail their coffin shut.
Anyone notice this year that it’s important to start watching a Braves game from the very first pitch…. especially if the Braves are on the road….. Can’t really say that about any other team. With this team something often happens on the very first pitch.
Not really a fan of batting Flowers and his .347 slugging percentage 5th.
In fairness, he’s slugging .600 against lefties. Though for his career he’s not hitting all that different versus left and right, so it’s possibly just a small sample size. But I understand the thinking.
Wow. Phils walked in the tying run in the 9th.
And Harper shit the bed. That was a clown swing, bro.
Anyone see what happened to Camargo on that error at 1b?
He strained a leg muscle it appeared.
The Nationals are in the process of giving it back.
Ender better not blow this.
Way to go Ender!!
Sac fly.
That was the exact same play as the original “LINE DRIVE BASE HIT” play but Chip wasn’t falling for it this time.
The official word on Camargo is that he was pulled for precautionary reasons with left groin tightness. I will leave you to make the pun.
The Nationals escaped a huge jam in the 9th. It’s going to extras.
They’re saying injured groin for Camargo now. I wonder how long he’ll be out.
Aw, Joey Bats lets the Phils down.
Acuña triples into the deep alley.
Acuna does it AGAIN!
Charlie Clutch!
Brooks Culberson
Soto homers, gNats up.
Charlie Clutch!
And Juan Soto HR’d to put the gNats ahead. He must have seen that Ronald tripled and had to one up him.
If every game stands as is, the Braves would take a 6.5 game lead.
Greg Holland is on to try and close it.
San Fran can’t wait for this season to end. It’s like every game this series will be a getaway day mentality. 48 pitches through 5 for Folty.
Wow, Folty through 5 on only 48 pitches. That’s positively Maddux-esque.
gNats sweep!
Phillies lost.
Phillies lose!
If that doesn’t end the Phils from a morale standpoint, I don’t know what does.
Phillies fans are in complete meltdown right now. I would make fun of them but then I remember us melting down 7 years ago.
Seems like it could be a complete game shutout for Foltynewicz.
For the record, yes I send him back out there for the ninth.
Neck’s gotta layout for that.
Foltynewicz is the first (and only) pitcher in all the majors with two complete games this year.
That was almost too easy.
I think that was for CG shutouts. There are 6 other guys with two complete games.
If the Braves go 11-6 beginning tomorrow then there is nothing the Phils can do to catch us. And that’s assuming we only win 1 of 7 against the Phils.
If the Braves go 7 and 10 the rest of the way, the Phils have to go 14 and 4. Good luck with that.
A month ago, the Phils were 65-51 and the Braves were 63-51. The Phils have gone 9-19 since that time. The Braves have gone 18-13. I keep telling myself that it’s not like 2011. As long as our guys take care of business, they don’t have to worry about the Phils or the Nats. Even if the Braves collapse and go 5-12 the rest of the way, the Phils would have to go 12-6 after a disastrous 9-19 just to tie. That’s asking a lot of any team (well, except maybe for the Red Sox or Astros). A win today and a Phils loss and they will be forced to pretty much sweep everything to have a prayer.
Sweep a demoralized Giants team today and play .500 the rest of the way, and the division is in the bag. Strangely, though, the vast majority of the remaining games are in ATL, where the Braves are only three games over .500 for the season. Gulp.
The way H-Flo is moving, next week’s games against St. Louis (M-W) are in serious jeopardy. As are games on either side of those.
Because the Phillies and Braves play each other 7 times, the Braves’ lead is not quite as secure as it seems. Those series give the Phillies an opportunity that most teams down 6 and a half this late don’t get.
If, God forbid, the Phils take 6 of 7 from the Braves, it gets pretty dicey. In that scenario, if the Braves split their other remaining games, the Braves finish 87-75. The Phillies could go 7-4 in their other remaining games and finish tied with the Braves.
If the Braves can take even 2 of the 7 from the Phillies, that increases the odds greatly, and taking 3 or 4 from the Phillies means we should be home free.
I know the Phillies are playing like crap and they are not likely to take 6 of 7 from the Braves. On the other hand, I remember 2011.
And one of my earliest baseball memories is the Phillies epic collapse in 1964.
Let’s assume the Phils take 6 of 7 from the Braves. They will still have to win tonight, sweep the Marlins, and take 2 of 3 from the Mets.
Then they have to fly out to a different time zone to play the Rockies, a really good team playing for something. They have to split that series. The Phils have a .425 record on the road.
It looks pretty bleak for them.
If Camargo can’t go by Friday, do they call up Riley?
Recapped.
I’ve really only been around since sid slid, so I’ll gladly defer to tfloyd et al, but this team just feels different. maybe it’s the youth and speed, the explosive offense, i really don’t know. And yes, I realize exactly how many wins a different feel, or a fighting spirit, or a cohesive team gets you. still, I have a hard time believing this team will fall victim.
There’s no Fredi Haas running this team, something that should make all of us feel better.