Every year, we ask for your predictions on several stats, dates, and milestones. With a very talented but unproven roster, there are plenty of predictions to make
Braves Record: 79-83
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs:Â Freddie Freeman 31
RBI: Â Freddie Freeman 100
OPS: Â Freeman .950
Runs: Â Ozzie Albies 100
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Kurt Suzuki
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Mike Foltynewicz
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio Teheran
Saves:Â A.J. Minter 15
Division winners:
NL East:Â Â Â Nationals
NL Central:Â Â Cubs
NL West:Â Â Dodgers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West:Â Astros
NL Wild Cards:Â Â Brewers, Giants
AL Wild Cards:Â Yankees, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP:Â Bryce Harper
AL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL Cy Young:Â Â Jon Lester
AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Gleyber Torres
NLCS– Cubs over Dodgers
ALCS- Astros over Yankees
World Series– Cubs over Astros
I guess I’m ok with the Yankees getting multiple playoff entrants so long as they all lose eventually.
Also, does least effective starting pitcher only cover guys that pitch all year? Cuz I think Kazmir will be spectacularly ineffective, but only for a little while.
Braves Record: 82-80
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freeman 34
RBI: Freeman 105
OPS: Freeman .975
Runs: Ender 102
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna (I know but… who else?)
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Folty
Saves: Vizzy 26
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Cardinals
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Twins
Awards:
NL MVP: Bryce
AL MVP: Stanton
NL Cy Young: Strasburg
AL Cy Young: Sale
NL ROY: Victor Robles
AL ROY: Michael Kopech
NLCS– Nats over Cubs
ALCS- Yankees over Astros
World Series– Yankees over Nats
I only don’t have Acuna as ROY to break the spell from last season when we all had Dansby.
How many hits does Ender get? I say 208.
Interesting predictions. I will say that if Julio is our least effective pitcher we lose closer to 90. If our young guys and Julio have better than expected seasons I think we win closer to 90. My guess is 83 and 79. I agree in general with the offensive numbers. Our season hinges on our starting pitchers imo. Our offense won’t be great but it will be good enough if our pitchers exceed expectations.
Braves Record: 87-75
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freeman 35
RBI: Freeman 95
OPS: Acuna .950
Runs: Albies 123
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Tylurt Flowzuki 420
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Matt Wisler
Saves: Vizzy
Division winners:
NL East: Losers
NL Central: Losers
NL West: Losers
AL East: Losers
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Braves, Brewers
AL Wild Cards: Losers, Twins
NLCS– Braves over Losers
ALCS- Losers over Astros
World Series– Braves over Losers
Braves Record: 91-71
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freeman 47
RBI: Freeman 115
OPS: Freeman .950
Runs: Albies 108
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Flowers 350
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Luiz Gohara
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
Saves: Vizzy
Division winners:
NL East: Gnats
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Damn Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Braves, Brewers
AL Wild Cards: Sawx, Angels
NLCS– Braves over Dodgers
ALCS- Astros over Angels
World Series– Braves over Astros
NL ROY: Luiz Gohara
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman
NL Cy: Yu Darvish
NL Manager of the Year: Snit
AL MVP: Andrelton Simmons
AL Other Awards: Who cares?
Pretty sure coop hit the nail on the head. Never doubted it.
Best New Ballpark Food
Taco Bell’s Taco Fries c/w Hot cheese dip…One dollar
Problem…How to access inside
Solution…Hide under Braves Cap(tiny size), remove, reheat in GA sun.
Delicious.
Braves record: 76-86
Others: don’t care
Most surprising prediction so far –
Sam, Braves to finish 5 games over .500. Agree
and…Acuna barely visible.
Braves record: 75-87
Braves Record: 77-85
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 35
RBI: Freddie Freeman 110
OPS: Freeman .975
Runs: Ender Inciarte 91
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio Teheran
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Scott Kazmir
Saves: Vizzy 21
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Cardinals, Mets
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Willie Calhoun
NLCS– Cubs over Nationals
ALCS- Red Sox over Astros
From the last thread… I’d like to get that last FB team slot filled pretty soon. The draft is Saturday.
https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/8803/invitation?key=42efa6fbdc694aa3&soc_trk=lnk&ikey=b422969f6bb7716e
I might be talking out of two sides of my mouth a little bit with my predictions. The reason I said Julio would be the least effective is because I actually think our starting pitching will be good enough to where Julio will end up in the rear. We might have as many as 8-9 guys get 10+ starts, but there are just so many good pitchers, it seems, right now. But with that said, if our starting pitching was good enough for Julio to be the 5th best, we probably win more than the 79 games I predicted, so that’s where I’ve got a bit of a meatball sundae. If you say that Julio bounces back, and Folty and Newcomb look like they’ve turned a corner, Gohara and Fried can pitch like they did last year, and McCarthy can pitch like he did last year, then we’ve got 6 quality SPs right now. So you don’t even have room for Kazmir, and you definitely don’t have room for Soroka. So if you have that plus your position player core, then how do you not predict a high-80’s win total? Shoot, with 5 really good SPs, how do you not win 90+?
The spring is just an ugly, putrid time with all of this optimism…
Braves Record: 92-70
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie 33
RBI: Freddie 99
OPS: Freddie 1.010
Runs: Ozzie 97
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Flowers
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Gohara
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
Saves: Vizcaino 23
Division winners:
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Nationals, Rockies
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP: Freddie
AL MVP: Correa
NL Cy Young: Kershaw
AL Cy Young: Charlie F’n Morton
NL ROY: Lewis Brinson
AL ROY: No one’s gonna say Ohtani?
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers
ALCS: Angels over Astros
WS: Braves over Angels, count it.
Ohtani’s a bust.
A lot of people picking 90+ wins. From your lips…
If they win 92 games, the offense will have to be better than Flowers in the clean-up spot. If Suzuki hits for the power he hit last year, he’d have to leap-frog Flowers in PAs at some point. What a waste of such a good catching duo right now.
@1 Meant to flip-flop Sox and Yanks, but forgot to finish it off. Fixed. Thanks.
(The Braves are not going to win 92 games this year.)
I wouldn’t write off Ohtani as a pitcher. If he were able to get reps in the minors, I wouldn’t write him off as a hitter either.
You’re just saying what I say in reverse, Fredo!
Acuna homer gives him 3 in the spring and a 1.249 OPS. Folty continues to not allow a run all spring.
I also think that Ohtani will be a bust and have said so for a long time.
This team isn’t going to sniff 90 wins. There are zero signs of that.
It’ll be closer to 70 than 90. IMO.
@19 Right. Nice line: 5IP 0H 0R 1BB 5K
Braves Record: 84-78
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freeman 34
RBI: Freeman 109
OPS: Acuna 930
Runs: Ozzie 106
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Newk
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
Saves: Minter 22
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Giants
AL Wild Cards: Angels, Twins
Awards:
NL MVP: FF
AL MVP: Lindor
NL Cy Young: Kershaw
AL Cy Young: Sale
NL ROY: Acuna
AL ROY: Ohtani (I believe he will be very effective as a pitcher at least for the 1st year.)
NLCS– Nats over Dodgers
ALCS- Angels over Astros
World Series– Angels over Nats (Andrelton WS MVP, Bryce cries)
ESPN…Now we Know
John Skipper
double dipper
what a perfect example
hey programmer, gotta sample?
Sometime in May Freddie will start batting cleanup. Acuna will move into the 3 hole for the next 12 years.
Winkler hasn’t looked really great, but the rest of the pen largely has.
One assumes this would coincide with Albies taking over leadoff duties and Ender dropping into the 2-hole, giving the team a S-L-R-L top four.
I understand spring training doesn’t count, but how’s our shortstop doing?
@26: That’s a good possibility. The additions of Albies and Acuna to the top of the lineup introduce more speed than what’s been seen there for many years. Those guys on base in front of Freeman can put pressure on opposing teams’ pitching and defense. Could be quite interesting to watch.
What is more valuable:
-$4M
-Your 4th round pick
OR
-Greg Holland
-The prospect you could get at the deadline if you traded him
Since the Braves have already lost their 3rd round pick, if I understand the rules correctly, I think they would give up a 4th round pick if they signed Holland. If it’s indeed the 4th rounder, our last 3 4th rounders have been Josh Graham, Bryse Wilson, and Freddy Tarnok. If AA is looking at the roster, and if he feels like he has a good rotation, Acuna has obviously exceeded expectations, and everyone else is looking good, maybe he commits $4M to improving the back-end of the bullpen with the best player available that you can get for $4M.
When I first heard the idea of Greg Holland I thought it was crazy with the Braves situation. However, on further thought, as you said, a deadline trade could bring some value. Also, he could change the bullpen rotation and upgrade it from a C+ to a B+ bullpen. If we’re good enough to make a wildcard run, Holland and the re-worked bullpen could mean 3 or 4 wins. That would be pretty significant. I’m still on the fence, but I will support his signing if it happens.
I love Minter as much as the next guy, but he’s got 63 professional innings under his belt, minor and major leagues. If you like your team, and maybe AA does, then slide everybody down a rung.
If we’re doing jolly, homeristic optimism, the best I can talk myself into is 81 wins. This is not a good team but it might not be a bad one either.
Question for the board: how much more does Acuna have to hit before the club is shamed into putting him on the opening day roster? Is there any point at which pissing him off by forcing him to ride the bus for a few weeks isn’t worth it? I get the idea that an extra year of control is worth a lot, but 2023 a long way off. And management-labor relations are certainly strained right now.
Braves Record: 75-87
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 34
RBI: Freddie Freeman 93
OPS: Freeman .900
Runs: Inciarte 88
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
Most Effective Starting Pitcher:: Julio
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
Saves: A.J. Minter 12
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Mets
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP: Posey
AL MVP: Trout
NL Cy Young: Kershaw
AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Ohanti
NLCS– Cubs over Nats
ALCS- Yankees over Indians
World Series– Cubs over Yankees
@32 I’d say there is no level of offensive production in ST that Acuna could produce that would shame the Braves into putting Acuna in the Opening Day lineup. They did that with JHey and the Braves lost team control of his 2016 season because they chose not to hold him in AAA for the first few weeks of his rookie season – that’s the sort of outcome that tends to stick in the minds of a franchise. I strongly doubt the Braves are going to give away a year of prime Acuna, in a year when they aren’t expected to contend and looking at a financial landscape where Atlanta is decidedly middle-tier.
Hopefully the era of gaming playing service years (and Super-2 eligibility) will end soon, either because of a cultural shift within the league as a whole or -more likely- a change to rules regarding player service time. As it is, even contending teams with huge budgets play service games (see, Cubs with Kris Bryant after he destroyed ST to the tune of a 1.652 OPS in 2015).
Someone asked above how is Swanson doing in ST.
He’s hitting .194.
OK, I’ll play:
Braves Record: 78-84
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 36
RBI: Freddie Freeman 108
OPS: Freeman .925
Runs: Ender Inciarte 99
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Ronald Acuna
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Sean Newcomb
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Lucas Sims
Saves: Arodys Vizcaino 21
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Rockies
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL MVP: Francisco Lindor
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Gleyber Torres
Dvisional Playoffs
Yankees over Red Sox
Indians over Astros
Dodgers over Nats
Cubs over D’backs
LCS
Indians over Yankees
Cubs over Dodgers
WS
Indians over Cubs
Swanson should start in AAA
AA is here and below are my projections
Braves Record: 75-87
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie 36
RBI: Freddie 109
OPS: Freddie 987
Runs: Inciarte 97
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Mike Soroka (in 85 Innings)
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Newcomb
Saves: Vizcaino 25
Division winners:
NL East: Nattitudes
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Rockies
AL Wild Cards: Yanks, Angels
Awards:
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
AL MVP: Trout
NL Cy Young: Scherzer
AL Cy Young: Sale
NL ROY: Nick Senzel
AL ROY: Shohei Ohtani
NLCS: Cubs over Rockies
ALCS: Indians over Yankees
WS: Indians win their first WS since 1948.
I think I’m more optimistic on Swanson and less optimistic on the rotation than most. I still don’t see this as anything like a .500 team.
A number of you can drop the “I know Spring Training stats are meaningless, but” act.
You believe in them, and you know it. No need for the caveats.
I will not.
I’ll give it a shot.
Braves Record: 80-82
Braves Team Leaders in:
Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 36
RBI: Freddie Freeman 112
OPS: Freeman .978
Runs: Albies 106
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Gohara
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Wisler
Saves: Vizcaino 19
Division winners:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
AL East: Yanks
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
NL Wild Cards: Rockies, Brewers
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox Twins
Awards:
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
AL MVP: Andrelton Simmons
NL Cy Young: Kershaw
AL Cy Young: Kluber
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: ?
NLCS– Rockies over Dodgers
ALCS- Indians over Astros
@40 I’m guilty – I admit it. And yes, I know it’s foolish. Still, I’m excited about Acuna and the prospect of the next/2018 wave of pitching. Just can’t help it.
Anibel Sanchez, everybody!
Now there’s a classic “is he still in the league?” guy.
He’ll be one of the guys to just look awkward in a Braves uniform. Just like Ben Sheets back then.
It could mean they think Kazmir is done. I’m sort of excited to see us cut bait on a sunk cost. That would demonstrate real growth for this franchise.
The predictions are a mixture of wildly optimistic and mostly pessimistic.
I think a lot of people are within 77-83 wins, so I’m not sure where you’re coming from there. Are you seeing those are either optimistic or pessimistic? I’d say 87+ wins is wildly optimistic and 72- wins is pessimistic.
I saw a few 90+ but I can’t tell if they are sarcasm, LOL.
I picked 75 wins. I think the team is potentially marginally better. I don’t believe it to be much better than last season, and if the rotation bombs(which is possible), frankly could be much worse.
I think there’s a spectrum of wins between 68-81 which is most likely.
I didn’t realize people were taking this seriously. You can exclude my prediction if you want — except the Charlie Morton Cy Young prediction, that right there you can take to the bank.
I think this is the first time I’ve predicted something higher than the 60s in 3 years. So that’s optimism.
I’m looking for Ryan Schimpf to win the NL homerun title. Would you consider that wildly optimistic?
I’m looking for Noah Syndergaard to make more starts than he has letters in his last name. Would you consider that wildly pessimistic?
I did find it interesting that krussell was more optimistic, for his standards.
I *hate* the idea of Acuna not being on the opening day roster. As a fan, I want to see the best version of the product I can, and I think everyone would agree that includes Acuna in the starting lineup. This sums up my feelings well:
@56
I couldn’t agree with that more. In fact, the two-paragraph section that begins “My interest is as a fan…” pretty much sums up my viewpoint on the front office situation in general, not just the Acuna situation.
If you don’t put the best players in your org on the field for all 162 games, you aren’t serious about winning. It’s been obvious that the Braves don’t care at all about the won/loss record as long as The Battery is a success. It’s a shame that I have to root against our real-estate ventures in order to get new ownership.
Wow, I would like for Acuna to start the season with the Braves, but I think they’re making the right decision to wait. Not having him for 2 weeks could cost us 1 game. If we lose him to free agency a year earlier or sign him to a multi million dollar contract early, will cost us a lot more than 1 or 2 games. Braves are doing the right thing, the rule and the players union grip on the game should be changed.
My interest as a fan is that the team be smart with regard to both the short and long term and not let emotions overwhelm reason. Of course you send him down. The decision is so incredibly obvious that this shouldn’t even really be a debate. Is modern society really so impatient that a couple more weeks waiting for the savior is such a burden on the fans?
If you don’t like that the decision is so obvious, lobby MLB to change its rules. Don’t demand that the team you supposedly care about take a large hit in the future just so you can have a tiny immediate benefit. That kind of thinking is how you end up with 20 years of losing.
@59, @60, I stand with you! On a related note, does anyone know where I can stream Gwinnett games for the first two weeks of the season?
Here’s the thing. Nobody knows how the season will turn out. Will one more win be important? How many of you predicted that the Twins would take one of the wild card slots last year? There are always teams that surprise, both positively and negatively. The team’s obligation to the fans should be to win every game they can, at least while the outcome of the season is in doubt. Otherwise, what’s the point?
If he’s a generational player, you will know before he hits the market. Whether that occurs in 2023 or 2024 doesn’t matter to my 2018 self. If the team is good, there will be money to sign him. If the team is bad, then one player doesn’t really matter (see Trout, Mike).
Gwinnett has to be the best team in the International League this year. Acuna, Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Fried, Sims, Peterson, and whatever players don’t make the major league squad.
@62
“The team’s obligation to the fans should be to win every game they can…”
Bingo, but this is a fact that the organization and a significant portion of the fanbase seem to have completely forgotten.
Holy Joey Meneses, has it been one month already? Looks like it’s time for another Braves Journal re-litigation of the rebuild!
Look,I know the Braves’ win total is likely to be somewhere in the 70’s. But it’s March, and I’m entitled to dream big dreams (see,e.g., UMBC over UVA). In my dream, it’s 1991 all over again. The starting pitching is dominant (Folty, Newk, Gohara, Fried make dramatic leaps forward, McCarthy is this year’s Leibrandt), the defense is much improved over last year,and several hitters have career years.
I’ll see your 91 or 92 wins, Coop and Adam R, and raise it. 94 wins!
Or none of that could happen and they win 67.
@62, 64. The Braves should be looking to win as many games as possible in the long run. Keeping Acuna in AAA for 2 more weeks does that since the MLB has ridiculous rules. If we are all about winning, why not trade Soroka, Allard, and Anderson for 2 3 to 4 WAR veterans? We can afford it with increased attendance and we can worry about finances 2 years down the road.
I’m simply saying put the players that you currently have that give you the best chance to win on the field. That shouldn’t be a controversial concept. Is there anyone who would argue that doesn’t include Acuna?
@68 under current rules, I would.
REMINDER BRAVES JOURNAL FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS TONIGHT, PLEASE GO TO THE LEAGUE LOBBY AND CLICK ENTER DRAFT. YOU CAN DO SO ABOUT 30 MINUTES PRIOR TO THE DRAFT.
71 – 91.
I don’t believe in Camargo, Swanson, Ruiz, Markakis, Flowers, Suzuki, or that at least 3 pitchers we’re counting on will get more than 12 starts.
And I don’t believe in the bullpen.
Freeman, Albies, Acuna, Max Fried’s curveball, and the return of Folty’s Smoltzie mustache are going to be the highlights of the year. Put it in the bank.
The folks who are whining that not putting Acuna on the Opening Day roster will be the same folks whining when he leaves a year earlier than possible. He’s likelier to be much more important to the Braves post-season chances in 2024 (the last of his arb years) than he is to be in 2018.
Keep Ronald in AAA until the seventh year is secure. The Braves will float until he arrives.
I can remember a time when the Braves tried to win every year (and did.)
Worrying about Acuna in 2024 is beyond ridiculous. If he’s a great player then they’ll have plenty of opportunity to extend him before then. It’s very likely the rules will change anyways.
Put the best players on the field, or sell the team to someone that will.
75 is absolutely correct. The current CBA expires in 2021, and who knows what the rules will be after that. Play your best players and let the chips fall where they may.
2-run shot… Acuna.
and almost another one.
@ 70
If I am unable to do that will my team auto draft? I manage a bar, the evening of St. Patrick’s Day is a special hell on earth requiring my full attention unfortunately.
Acuna will be…25? when he hits free agency. He obviously knows that’s his prime, so I imagine it could be difficult to extend him if it doesn’t happen quickly.
@70 yes it will auto draft. I will say though that I really hope we aren’t going to have all auto draft participants. It will be zero fun, and your teams will be very bad.
Does anyone know why Newcombe left the game after 4.2 innings today? Was it a pitch count thing or something else?
I’m starting to think that Anyelo Gomez is not very good. I already knew that Lucas Sims wasn’t.
Went to the @Phils game today, and scored some behind home plate tickets, so I caught Acuna’s HR:
Also “talked” to Dansby. I said, “Hey, honey, look, it’s Charlie Culberson! Ahhh just kidding Dansby.” He laughed and said, “He’s better looking than me.” I think that’s what he said, at least. He’s an easy guy to like.
@81
Believe me, if I could be anywhere else, I would.
At some point it’s hard to not feel sorry for Ryan Schimpf. He is now 0 for 27 with 5 walks and 18 strikeouts playing for 2 teams this spring. As someone who could be an all or nothing hitter (never a great player) I definitely feel his pain.
@ 75/ 76 – If we are taking about the option of starting Acuna now or in June, I agree fully. However, we’re only talking about 2 weeks. Could it be the difference in us going to the playoffs? Not likely, but yes. Could waiting 2 weeks save us several million dollars and help our team win several years down the road? The 2nd question is much more probable than the first. Sseeing you in mid April Ron.
The “it’s not my money so why would I cheer on owners making more money” only goes so far. If you choose to be a fan of the Atlanta Braves, which plays a sport that does not have a salary cap, you choose to be a fan of a team with finite resources. Those are the facts. So, if the Cubs hold Bryant back, and the Phillies hold Scott Kingery back, and teams all over the league do the same with their players, then that’s the market we are in. So the Braves have a finite amount of money they will spend, and other teams are saving money through this means, meaning if the Braves don’t do it, they can’t use that money elsewhere. When they don’t use that money elsewhere, then the team suffers. So if you care about the Braves using, say, $25M in finite money elsewhere, then you’re for keeping Acuna down. If you don’t recognize that sheer fact, then you’re going to be against the decision. But you can’t move the goalposts and say that those constraints don’t exist. If you want to say that it shouldn’t be this way, then sure, take that stance. But if you cheer for the Braves (or any other team for that matter), then you have to recognize their individual constraints. And as a fan, if other teams are saving $25M through this type of move, I want my team to do the same. Same way I don’t want them to sign a player above market value, even though it’s not my money.
Right. Saying “the Twins made the wildcard game this one time, so it could happen” is not a good argument. Yes, teams that people you don’t expect to make the playoffs do make the playoffs every season. But what are the odds that it’s going to be your team?
The fun thing about a league with a bunch of auto-drafters is that it opens up the trade market in the early part of the year. When you have 17 OFs, ya know, maybe you have to make a deal or two with the team that has 14 SPs and Nick Markakis is their best OF.
So a lot of the fantasy baseball rankings have Dansby Swanson in the 230 range. And if you’re the GM of some magical expansion draft where all players are available, maybe you wouldn’t take Dansby 230th. But the common people right before and after him in the drafts include Ohtani, Tanner Roark, Gleyber Torres, Joc Pederson, etc., so at least the fantasy world thinks that Dansby is going to have a productive year. Two hits today. Here’s hoping…
Lucas Sims has had a bad spring.
You know, if Acuna would sign a 10-12m contract for his first year of FA they’d break camp with him.
@92
That same type of strategy seemed to work out well for the Rays when they extended Evan Longoria 2 weeks into his MLB career.
Snitker says Newcomb is in the rotation for sure.
And with my last pick of the evening, I take, of course, Mallex Smith. Great job everybody!
Great draft–who’d I get?
Great draft–who’d I get?
@95, He comps well with Rock Raines, Jr. You might have a late-round sleeper there!
It’s not often you can pick up a future HoFer in the 25th round. I just have an eye for these things, I guess.
I’d be interested in seeing the rosters, if you guys are willing to publish them.
Chief.
Congrats on a good start.
Here’s something for you from today’s paper.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/mar/17/paul-cook-wigan-manager-fa-cup
Four in a row would be pretty awesome.
@100
KO 9.30, FS2
But the common people right before and after him in the drafts include Ohtani, Tanner Roark, Gleyber Torres, Joc Pederson, etc., so at least the fantasy world thinks that Dansby is going to have a productive year.
A productive year in the minors? I can’t explain Roark’s low ADP, but it looks like that’s where the other three guys you listed look to be starting the season.
You know, if Acuna would sign a 10-12m contract for his first year of FA they’d break camp with him.
Obviously the Braves would love this. In the wake of Longoria, I’m sure every team has been trying to get a 50 percent discount on that first FA year. We’ll know in a few weeks how much sheer anxiety about finances Acuna has…something tells me he won’t be inclined to give a discount on that age 26 season. Maybe it’s the way he wears his hat.
Here is a link to the draft results if you’re interested:
https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/8803/draftresults
ES Blofeld
Chris Iannetta Col – C
Freddie Freeman Atl – 1B,3B
Daniel Murphy Was – 2B
Alex Bregman Hou – 3B,SS
Trea Turner Was – SS
Andrew McCutchen SF – OF
Ryan Braun Mil – OF
Ender Inciarte Atl – OF
Didi Gregorius NYY – SS
Nicholas Castellanos Det – 3B,OF
Noah Syndergaard NYM – SP
Carlos Martínez StL – SP
Lance McCullers Jr. Hou – SP
Corey Knebel Mil – RP
(Empty)
Luiz Gohara Atl – SP
Sean Newcomb Atl – SP
Alex Cobb TB – SP
Josh Bell Pit – 1B
Eddie Rosario Min – OF
Ian Kinsler LAA – 2B
Michael Conforto NYM – OF
Carlos González Col – OF
Mallex Smith TB – OF
I’m real heavy on OFs, and light on pitching, so I have a waiver claim out to address that. I’ll probably deal Bregman or Turner since FF5 is eligible at 3B (crazy, right?). A lot of buy-low, boom-or-bust types. ES Blofeld is looking to make a deal for world domination, folks!
@103
Pederson, Roark, and Swanson all had bad years last year. The expectation, based on their draft positions, is they’ll rebound. Ohtani is a wild card, but the draft position fits his potential out of the gate. Same with Torres, who had a bad spring but should find himself at 2B before too long. The point is that while it’s a low draft position, the comparable players should have some productive years.
https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/8803/startingrosters
Braves Journal Rosters
Swanson is starting to hit a little.
The expectation, based on their draft positions, is they’ll rebound.
I don’t know what support there could be for such a strong assertion. It seems very plausible to me that someone could draft Joc Pederson thinking, “He’s not making the team. He may get leapfrogged by Alex Verdugo, so when Matt Kemp inevitably declines mid-season, he may not even get the call. That’s a real risk. But Steamer still likes him and he could get traded or maybe Chris Taylor and Matt Kemp both suck, so I’ll take a chance and just cut him if it doesn’t work out.”
That’s less an expectation and more a wing and a prayer — and similar for Ohtani and Torres. The fantasy market is saying that Dansby, a player who is guaranteed playing time from the outset, is as valuable as players who will simply take up space on your roster when the season starts, and for who knows how long. That’s not exactly the strongest evidence out there arguing for a Dansby rebound.
So I played a game of Ken Griffey Jr Baseball, a 1995 release on the super nintendo, and after finishing the game there is like a newspaper boxscore with headlines and stuff
The main headline was “Braves sign top Cuban player”…..
no comment
Acuna has added 2 more hits so far today.
@109
He’s a shortstop. His fantasy value is tied up in the fact that he’ll play, and he’ll produce numbers that are consistent with a decent (or slightly above average or productive) shortstop. Yes, Pederson’s OPS and HR totals are interesting in the draft, but the expectation is that Dansby will play and hit like a good shortstop to keep on your fantasy bench. And yes, if Pederson gets traded, he’s attractive that he’s an OF that might re-produce his .850 OPS and give you some homers. Similarly, Dansby is attractive because he’ll hit well for a shortstop. What are we arguing?
It’s the 230 draft slot. The 23rd spot on your roster in a 10 team leaague. It’s a guy you take a chance on, hopefully he’s got some upside. But you don’t draft a guy you think will probably give you a replacement level offense, so I think the market is less down on Dansby Swanson than some fans are. That’s all I got here.
Anibal Sanchez
“A real find!”, this Braves fan says
We couldn’t have gotten him for less
For three innings of Spring Training action he held the World Series Champion Houston Astros scoreless.
@110
I played that the other day too
I know Spring Training doesn’t count but today proved we’re a lot better than last year’s WS champs.
Agreed. It also proved that AJ Minter, with 3 strikeouts in one inning, is easily the best relief pitcher in baseball.
110, 114 — I used to love that game. A friend borrowed it from me and I never got it back. 🙁
Anibal Sanchez started for Kazmir today, who was scratched with an injury to his jaw. Don’t know how that happened.
@116 Minter is having himself a nice little spring. RH hitters swinging and missing his breaking ball is especially is fun to watch.
New thread.