Braves 7, Natinals 3

“Braves take rare victory over Nationals, 7-3,” went the AP headline. That’s a real blow, considering how we owned them in 2013-2014, say, with a 24-14 record and that satisfying consternation when a team knows that another team has their number. As a matter of fact, entering 2016, the Braves’ record against the Washington baseball squad was 101-101.

This year, counting today, it is 3-15. That’s what makes it rare, I guess. Ugh.

Anyway, we won because Gio Gonzalez coughed up a bunch of runs as per usual, and Josh Collmenter managed to keep the score manageable, despite throwing an 84-mile-an-hour fastball that all but wore a Kick Me sign.

Ender Inciarte went 3-4 and is now batting .293. He’s really good.

10 thoughts on “Braves 7, Natinals 3”

  1. Who would you rather him: Ender or Player B? To me, it’s not even close.

    Ender is a good example of the fact that you need something from the offensive side of a premier defender. He’s not a huge offensive asset, but he hits enough to supplement great defense. Andrelton can’t say that.

  2. Ender’s OPS is actually .737. He’s younger and cheaper than Andy and by Fangraphs estimation he’s been considerably better – 3.6 to 2.7 WAR.

  3. Oops…typo on my part re: Ender’s OPS. A thirty point difference is not a small one, but it’s close enough that I think it’s a clear differential between him and Andrelton. As for the WAR figure, I got mine from Baseball Reference… is that not a good source?

  4. My goal in the first sentence was to contrast Heyward and Ender. Adjusting for contract, I think Ender is significantly more valuable even if you throw out Heyward’s down year.

    The second paragraph was more about Andrelton’s career to this point as an offensive zero. Ender is such a great example compared to Andrelton on how WAR can be misleading. At the end of the day, whether it’s B-Ref or Fangraphs, their WARs are pretty similar, but the fact that Ender can actually have a positive role in a lineup makes him significantly more valuable. I just don’t think you can have a lot of value to a team with .617 and .660 OPS seasons and a black hole in the lineup. Teams pitch around other players to get to you, you kill rallies, and you essentially create two consecutive automatic outs in the lineup. Ender is an example of hitting just enough to almost multiple the value of your defense. I think when you’re building a roster, you’d take Ender’s slightly inferior defense and significantly superior bat in center vs. Andrelton’s contributions. When you factor in contracts, it’s not even close.

    Back to Heyward, Ender is really what Heyward should be. When you’re building your roster, you go into it knowing that your RF is not going provide much power, and you’re forced to compensate elsewhere (like Dan Uggla). This is why I don’t want Ender or Mallex in RF. You have Jason Heyward all over again. If we can turn Mallex and Markakis into a power-hitting RF, then I really love the way the position player side of the roster is being constructed.

  5. @5 JohnR – Fangraphs and B-Ref both publish Wins Above Replacement but (so I understand) they measure defensive value differently which leads to some variation in WAR results for a given player depending on which site’s WAR figures you want to look at.

    As far as Inciarte v. Heyward v. Simmons and their function in an offense – Inciarte is a high-average, decent OBP guy with excellent baserunning skills and little XBH pop, so it’s easy to slot him at the top of the lineup. JHey *was* essentially the same as Inciarte (except his OBP was driven more by walks than hits) until his offense collapsed this year. By contrast, Simmons has typically had a poor (.300-ish) OBP and isn’t a great baserunner, which makes him a poor candidate to bat the top of the order.

    Another note: Simmons’ .704 OPS this year comes courtesy of a career-high .303 BABIP. All else equal, it seems more likely that his BABIP will drop back down towards his career line (.275) in future, which would push his OPS back down into the .675 range that’s been his career OPS average.

  6. Could be. An anti-Heyward word has never been written with the expectation that it would be met with your agreement, though.

    I’d love to know what our starting pitching ERA is on games we win and lose for the last two months. Those two stats will tell us all we need to know about how 2017 is going to go. The unintended consequence but added benefit is that some key relievers for next year are getting many, many appearances to audition. Snitker’s on a 4-5 reliever a night pace since July.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *