The Braves entered play Thursday night in Flushing looking to cap a ten game road trip with a series win against the Mets. At game time, the Braves found themselves 6.5 games back of the Nationals for the top spot in the NL East, and deadlocked with the Pirates at 1.5 games back for the final Wild Card spot. The Cardinals and Giants would meet in the play-in game if the standings hold.
Coming off his best start of the season (and likely his career) against the Reds, the Braves turned to Mike Minor to help end the trip on a high note. The Mets countered with their own lefty, “Jawbreaker†Jon Niese.
After playing tight affairs in the first two games of the series, I was hoping for a Braves blow out before heading back to Atlanta. In the top of the second, Minor helped himself by notching an RBI single which scored Andrelton Simmons, giving the Braves a 1-0 advantage. Things stayed relatively quiet until the top of the eighth when the Braves staked a 3-0 lead thanks to an Emilio Bonifacio triple and a Freddie Freeman RBI single.
In between, Minor was brilliant and his renaissance continued. His final line: seven innings pitched with five strikeouts against no walks. The lone run came on an Eric Campbell single which scored Travis d’Arnaud. On the offensive side, Minor went 2 for 3 with an RBI and a run scored.
Ryan Doumit joined the baseball team, crushing a two-run pinch hit home run in the top of the ninth for his first hit in the month of August. Bonifacio also added an RBI single in the ninth which scored Jason Heyward. The final score saw the Braves victorious, 6-1, totaling thirteen hits on the night. David Carpenter and Anthony Varvaro pitched scoreless frames in relief.
Up next is an important home series against the Marlins, who have been steadily in the Braves rear-view mirror since the All-Star Break. I’m not against sweeping the Fish. Let fury have the hour.
Wow, Kyle, I think you beat the beat writers in having this up before the game stories were posted. Impressive!
I agree, let’s sweep the Fish.
When was the last time BJ got 4 hits in a week, much less a single game? Hopefully this will be enough for Bonifacio to get 95 percent of the starts from here on out. If BJ gets 2 hits in a game I think he’s guaranteed at least 5 starts in a row.
I’m a huge fan of Alex’s recap from Tuesday. If we lost, I was going to go for: “Fly ball. Caught.”
Thank God you didn’t have to!
Nice win.
Of course, also this happened:
“Schafer tied a career high with four RBIs, leading the Twins to an 11-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals.”
He already has more hits, runs and twice as many RBIs with the Twins in less playing time. Good for him.
@5
Have you watched Schafer play for the Twins? He looks so much more relaxed lately. To be honest, I think the issue with Schafer has always been expectations. He came up with the Braves back in 2009 as their next big thing as a leadoff hitter. We all know this did not work out.
If you look at his career numbers projected over a 162 game season, he is far off from a leadoff guy, but he does project well as a bottom of the order bat who can play all OF positions. I think the Twins are going to give him a chance next year to be an everyday player with the showing he is giving them so far.
I am anxious to see how he does. I do not expect a .300 average season, but I bet he can pull a .240/.320 with a .650 OPS. It doesn’t look great, but when you consider what he can do on the basepaths, he could project as a nice number 9 hitter for them.
Gardenhire farted and it ran Schafer out of the dugout.
Schafer failed with Houston. He’ll more than likely be a flash in the pan with the Twins.
But, I do wonder in a chicken and egg sort of way. Do bench players like Doumit and Schafer suck because they don’t get enough playing time or do they not play because they suck?
“Ryan Doumit joined the baseball team.”
Thanks, Kyle B. Great recap.
Schafer, much like Frenchy, seems to have a grace period of goodness when he changes teams, then regresses to his natural state.
I might have misheard the radio guys, but I’m pretty sure they said the Braves have eight pinch hits on the entire season. Is that possible?
They were saying the Braves had 8 RBIs off the bench. I was nodding off at the time but I presume that didn’t include Doumit’s home run.
How many times has Gattis been used off the bench this year and how does that number compare to last year? I know since he’s a starter this year his chances to be used off the bench will be smaller but it still seems like there have been many missed opportunities this year as compared to last year.
How many walkoffs have we had this season? Seems like we lose most of our 1 run games or fail to get the big hit. Going back to the earlier conversation, this team is just boring to watch. It’s shocking because we have one of the youngest teams in the league.
Braves PH, 2014: 165 PA, 26 hits, 2 HR, 10 RBI, .173/.238/.240
That’s 28th out of 30 teams.
@13
Gattis had 13 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in 2013.
So far in 2014 he has 9 plate appearances in about 90% of last year’s total playing time.
Not sure what to make of these numbers. Perhaps there isn’t much to them at all.
That’s an astounding amount of suck.
We could just let our pitchers hit and save a little bit of money by carrying a 21 man roster.
Keep Mike Minor!
@11 I’d believe it.
For all the problems with this team, a solid Mike Minor and decent pinch hitting might have given them the best record in baseball.
@8
I wonder the same thing.
The bench has been horrible, obviously, but Zac is correct. A team with a top line of Teheran, Good Mike Minor, Santana, and Harang; with a starting offense of Heyward, JUpton, Freeman, Gattis, LaStella, Johnson, Simmons, someone in CF is actually competitive in this league.
Throw Wood into the rotation also.
I sure hope that we see Bonafacio in center more often than not going forward.
Teheran, Minor, Wood
Kimbrell, Walden, Carpenter
Freeman, LaStella?, Simmons
JUpton, Heyward
Gattis
Is this a good enough nucleus to build around? Did I leave anyone out?
A few days ago we were trading Gattis and JUpton and Heyward and Kimbrel, and not making an offer to Santana.
My knee-jerk reaction was to crap on the Braves’ FO for preferring Peraza to La Stella (whereas I kind of see where they’re coming from on Gattis).
But despite how terrifying Peraza’s walk rate is, I don’t know that TLS gets to be a part of our core. It depends on what one thinks of his defense. Regardless, many of us had said he merely needed to be better than Uggla, and yet it looks as though that wasn’t enough for this Braves team.
TLS has been better than Uggla, but not exactly great. I don’t think 2B offense is really the squeakiest wheel though. 3B and CF have been atrocious. If we had gotten league-average or slightly better from those two then we’d be comfortably in the playoffs rather than scratching and clawing.
Thanks to our productive farm system, the Braves have managed to have a very molten core. Prado was a core guy till he wasn’t, and so were O’Vent, and so were Medlen and Beachy and so on. We’ve managed to use the farm to plug a lot of holes, either directly or by trade.
The real core is the guys under long-term contract: Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Kimbrel. They’re surrounded by an optional core of guys under long-term team control, who could either be good trade chips or solid contributors: Wood, Gattis, La Stella. Unfortunately, the core also includes Johnson and Upton, who are going to be very painful to move.
I’m sort of persuaded by ryan c’s argument that CJ’s contract is actually fair value. It’s just a matter of finding a rebuilding team that needs a 3B and can fit him in their budget. Or maybe a matter of Wren admitting he made a mistake.
Yeah, it is roughly fair value for a 1.5 to 2-WAR guy. But as a general matter, you’d rather not lock in a below-average player for a lot of years and have to spend $25 million for the privilege. The bigger problem is that his skillset doesn’t give him a lot of margin for error: he doesn’t have much power, doesn’t really walk, and can’t really play defense, so if he isn’t hitting for average, he doesn’t bring any value to the table other than innings played.
According to Fangraphs, the Braves are 25th in WAR at 3rd with 0.8, 26th in WAR at 2nd with -0.2, and 29th in WAR at CF with -0.5.
Three overall nonproductive spots. Now, 2nd base has gotten better since La Stella took over, but he is still just a 0.2 WAR guy through 79 games. Basically, he would be on pace to finish with less overall WAR than Johnson according to sabermetrics.
So, as much as I like watching La Stella, it is only fair to point out that he is actually of less value than Johnson to this team. If this is the case, there is an argument that the two top upgrade positions for the winter are actually CF and 2nd base and not 3rd base.
In my opinion, I think the focus of the winter should be on CF, bench, and pitching. I think 2nd and 3rd could work out with La Stella and Johnson with Gosselin being a good guy for backing each of them up.
WAR is a counting stat, and Johnson has played a lot more than La Stella. More to the point, La Stella costs virtually nothing and is well above replacement level. Replacing him will cost a lot more than it costs to play him.
The bigger question is: why the hell did every single Braves hitter regress, with the exception of Justin Upton?
If you look at total team WAR at bbRef you see that the Braves non-pitchers have accounted for -0.6 combined WAR for 2014. 2B is -2.3. 3B is -2.5. CF is -3.3. In short our good players aren’t quite good enough to balance out the bad ones.
Great peg, bear.
Really nice throw by Evan.
I have no clue why everyone keeps thinking every Braves player regressed aside from J. Upton.
Freeman is having a good year. Yes, his RBIs are down, but this is a product of the inconsistencies at the top of the lineup ahead of him. His runs are up due to getting on base consistently in front of J. Upton. His Hrs are down slightly, but he has been hitting doubles like crazy. His average is right where it will probably be on average for his career.
Another player who hasn’t regressed if you pay close attention to his career stats is Jason Heyward. Yes, his power numbers are not where they once were, but everything else about his offensive performance is right on the level of the rest of his career thus far.
The only two batters that have truly regressed this year are Simmons and Johnson.
Now, break down those two.
The only difference between Simmons numbers this year and last year is his power numbers.
With Johnson, did you really expect the guy to repeat last year’s performance? His career totals thus far have showed last year as an outlier. His biggest regression this year isn’t so much hitting as it is plate discipline with increased Ks vs decreased walks.
This game is going to take 5 hours and we’re going to lose 2-1.
@38 That’s odd for a Santana game. He usually works pretty quickly.
Thomas La Stella!
@37, let’s go by OPS+:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2013.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2014.shtml
* Dan Uggla is down a ton.
* Simmons and Johnson are down a lot, obviously.
* B.J. Upton is slightly up, but still so bad that he’s been removed from the starting lineup.
* Freeman and Heyward are down a bit.
* The bench is down a lot, including holdovers like Ramiro Pena and Gerald Laird and Jordan Schafer and Tyler Pastornicky (who were probably over their heads last year, in fairness) and new recruits like Ryan Doumit, having easily the worst year of his career.
On the other side of the ledger:
* Justin Upton has been slightly better than he was last year.
* Evan Gattis has been significantly better.
That’s really it.
And … ballgame.
Jason played that like a champ, hit the cutoff man in the chest, and they threw him out at the plate by a mile. Nice.
Justin. Upton.
That ball was kilt.
Well, dang.
Damn it, Carpenter.
Jordany Valdespin is the best pinch hit home run hitter of his generation.
@41
First, you cannot use Uggla in an example. He was done after 2012 and is no longer with this team.
Second, Freeman and Heyward are variable statistical points off in OPS that you expect from year to year. It is not enough to say they regressed. They are both having overall statistically consistent years compare with their average yearly numbers thus far in their career.
Third, B.J. Upton is the exact same player he was last year. He was bottom of the group bad last year, and he is the same player this year.
Fourth, I already said Simmons and Johnson regressed, but it wasn’t a surprise that they would.
Fifth, I agree with you 100% about the bench.
Basically, the links you gave did not change my opinion at all. J. Upton and Gattis are up this year. Heyward and Freeman are consistent to career expectations thus far. B.J. Upton has continued to consistently stink. Uggla played himself off the team. So, Johnson and Simmons are the only two that I truly see as regressed from what their careers thus far have shown.
Need this run, Jason. Just a fly ball.
J-Hey!
What a man.
Our terrible bunting is contagious.
Take note that this is why bunting is so stupid. It is not automatic. That’s just as good as a strikeout.
Wow. Well.
Justin Upton is ridiculous.
JUpton is making beautiful, sweet baseball.
Finish them, Bear.
Justin is the entire team.
@48, the data’s right there. You need to figure out why you have to give that many qualifications to support your point.
No, I mean, if you ignore Freddie’s batting average, on base percentage, slugging, home runs, strikeouts, and his performance relative to the league, he’s having the same exact season he did last year.
EDIT: Or is that funnier as “Sure, Freddie’s batting average is down a little, but he’s making up for it by striking out more and homering less.” ??
Freeman does do that well, though, dudn’t he?
Every time we score 5 or more I find myself liking this team a bit more.
JHey is now leading the NL in WAR. Is this bizzaroworld?
Justin Upton’s going to get all the press for this one because of the enormous home run, but Jason Heyward just played a hell of a damn ballgame. On base every time tonight, HUGE at bat to break the tie ballgame down two strikes to a tough lefty reliever, actually that one’s worth noting twice: what an awesome AB by Heyward their against our old pal Dunn; the part he played in the relay throw, the running catch in right-center.
What a player. What a ballplayer Jason Heyward is.
Anyway, that’s not to take anything from Justin, who is a monument to himself right now, or from all the other players who did a lot of little things right tonight: Freeman’s throw to Simmons to start that DP (watch the way the runner is wobbling all across his line); Carpenter, Walden, and Kimbrel all throwing their fastballs basically as well as they can throw them, another really nice start for Santana, Bonifacio for making the top of his helmet look like Sammy Sosa’s new skin, Fredi for NOT PLAYING BJ UPTON. Great game, Braves.
@61
You must skip over most of the posting I do here.
I love this ongoing debate in the post game shows about where Heyward belongs in the lineup. Everybody keeps focusing on his build for some reason as to why he belongs in the middle of the lineup. Who really cares how he is built?
The guy is the Braves only option for lead off this season. Also, except for one year in his career when he hit 27 homeruns, he does not appear to be a middle of the order bat. If anything, he probably would be batting 2nd or 6th for most teams in the league.
Short recap up.
Heyward is a bit of an enigma, but I’m 100% fine with him batting 1st. I think JUpton should bat 2nd since that’s where your best hitter needs to be, but that’s a minor nit.
The bottom line with this team (or any team) is that you need extra-base-hits to win. If we homer and hit doubles into the gaps or down the line, then we usually win.
Seems like we’re coming into a nice little stretch here where Heyward and JUpton and random-scrub are producing most nights. Let’s get Freeman and Gattis involved, and take control of this wild card crap.