Several familiar themes emerged in tonight’s 6-4 win over the Pirates. The offense continues to be cartoonishly what it is. Julio Teheran, unfortunately, continues to be who he has been. Chris Johnson continues to find his way on base, never the same way twice. And a certain rookie sensation continued to add to his legend.
Bupton got things going right away with a leadoff homer in the first against the slight (but double-roped!) southpaw Jeff Locke, whom the Bucs acquired from the Braves in the Louth deal. Locke, like Teheran, is an unfinished product, and also struggled with his command. The combination was excruciating to watch – the crowd looked distracted, I was bored, and Clint Hurdle’s scotch bottle sang its siren song.
You knew we were in for a long night in the bottom of the first when Teheran sailed four straight fastballs high and outside to Travis Snider, who eventually came around to tie the game. Russell Martin untied it in the second with a solo HR. C. Johnson then discovered the joy of homering with an actual runner on base in the top of the third, scoring Jupton ahead of him and making the score 3-2 Braves.
In the bottom of the fourth, Pedro Alvarez went mammo on a pitch that was, as was typical all night, nowhere near the target. Seriously, Teheran threw 87 pitches, and I swear 40 of them missed Laird’s target by at least a foot. The difference between Teheran’s command and that of every single other pitcher on the staff is alarming. He’s got to do better.
The teams traded additional single runs (Jupton!). Then the bullpens got involved, and the game sharpened up a good bit. Varvaro went six-up-six-down, then smacked Julio up side of his head and was all, like, “see?†The Bucs’ pen returned the favor, and then came the top of the eighth.
With one out and Simmons on first, Fredi did something unusual for a Braves manager – he sent up his other catcher, one Evan Gattis, to pinch-hit. Joe Simpson joked that Fredi didn’t know who his emergency catcher is, because “no one volunteered.†Please God let it be Schafer. Anyway, Gattis powdered a Jared Hughes offering over the left field wall for a two-run homer and a 6-4 Braves lead. No way he gets sent down when McCann returns, no way.
O’Flambrel did what we’ve all come to take for granted (and ain’t that nice), and victory was ours. Thanks to Starling Marte’s platinum sombrero, Heyward had only the second-worst batting line of the night, and he’s now down to .115.
So that’s that, a cool 13-2. Tim Hudson versus Wandy Rodriguez, who’s coming off a hamstring issue, Friday at 7:05. Oh yeah – if you’ve never been to PNC Park, it is a real gem, and well worth a trip. But Primanti’s is deeply stupid. French fries in a sandwich is not a thing.

Primanti’s is so a thing. You just need to be REALLY drunk and have some cheese fries and an Iron City and then you’ll see what I mean.
Yep, looks like the Teheran starts are gonna be the iffy ones. But, luckily for ATL, most clubs have much bigger problems.
Fun Fact: In 15 games, the Braves have given up 29 ER, while hitting 29 HR. Kinda hard to lose too many when you’re doing that.
Thanks for the recap, Alex. FWIW, I really miss having separate game threads.
Are the Barves 3-0 in Teheran starts? Unpossible.
@5
Like a certain starter from a few years ago who will not be named, he just knows how to win.
Great recap
@5 It’s better to be lucky than good I guess.
Teheran’s just a kid though. You gotta be patient.
I think Teheran will be fine. The whole of his problem was fastball command, and that’s probably just mechanical and can be corrected. He threw some absolutely DEVASTATING breaking balls, and seems to be able to vary their speed and the degree of their break based on what he wanted to accomplish with it.
Easier to be positive AFTER the game, knowing that it was a win.. But yeah, I’m still on board. I think he’ll be a good one when he figures it out.
Jonah Keri has dubbed the rare 5K game as a Fluffy Fedora.
Crazy stuff going on in Cambridge, MA tonight. Hope all is well AAR.
Thanks for the recap.
Stay safe those in the Boston area.
Please be careful, Bostonians. Gotta say I’m awful glad I’m not there anymore.
Was Teheran’s control an issue in the minors, or in ST?
Agreed, hope all our Massachusetts friends are safe and secure.
brilliant write up Alex R…
the moment captured, encapsulated…
so many thoughts, so few words…
cheers!
Alex,
Have you gone out to capture this suspect yet?
Of course, I was in PNC last week, given my impeccable timing. (Did I mention that I was there for the Frozen Four, and that YALE WON?) And it’s a gem of a park, although I bypassed Primanti’s and stuck to Manny Sanguillen’s BBQ (and it to me).
Jupton’s HR projection http://espn.go.com/mlb/homeruns is down to 97. He’s got to pick up the pace….
On Teheran’s wildness. I assume he wasn’t missing Laird’s glove by a foot… it’s that Laird had misset his glove by a foot, and called the wrong pitch to boot. #GiveUpOnLaird
Thanks, all. It’s been a crazy f’in week.
Nothing cheap about all the home runs. I can’t thank the Dbacks enough. I don’t know about you Keith Towers, but I absolutely love JUpton.
I guess you really can’t read anything into Spring Training performances. Teheran was unhittable. What the heck happened?
Thr Braves now have a higher run differential (43) than either the Marlins or Dodgers(!) have runs.
It looks to me like Teheran is trying to muscle up on his fastball to get it by big league hitters. I think its mental (and mechanical.) This might be the one case where doing it under the lights really is different.
If you have MLB.tv, watch his ABs against Starling Marte. He didn’t strike him out three times because Marte couldn’t hit what everyone else could. He was just unhittable when he was pitching to Marte, a different pitcher. His breaking balls to Marte were like heat seekers. It’s almost like he knew he was better than THAT guy, but was scared of all the rest of them.
The offense continues to be cartoonishly what it is.
Alex, I absolutely love pithy one liners and concise summaries of the facts, and this line is absolutely frickin’ perfect. Well done!
Bethany, where in the Boston suburbs did you live. I had 2 uncles in Medfield. Happy now I was turned down by MIT. I know nobody that lives there now.
@24 Who is BAM BAM?
@25 I lived out in Framingham, so well away from the city, and I worked near South Station. Spent a lot of time in Somerville and Cambridge. One of my former coworkers lives very close to where all of this is happening, she’s holed up in her place.
I’ll temporarily de-lurk to ask: Is there a rationale for the “preserve the back-up catcher at all costs” rule?
Most managers wouldn’t bat an eye-lid before sending Pena to pinch-hit, though he’s the only other possible short-stop – an objectively more difficult position. [Incidentally, Pastornicky had a good spring and is off to a good start at AAA]. Do catchers actually get injured at a higher rate?
I just want to echo all the compliments on this great recap, Alex, and I’m glad you’re safe.
I believe sansho actually wrote the recap.
Whoever wrote it, thank you for the good words.
Those in the Boston area, please be safe.
Oh well, I was going to see if I could slip that comment in there unnoticed. 🙂
@32 😛
It is a fantastic recap.
How badly does Keith Law wish Evan Gattis would just go away?
“I guess you really can’t read anything into Spring Training performances. Teheran was unhittable. What the heck happened?”
Real games against real major league players?
I had car trouble and had to get towed in Framingham coming back from uncle’s funeral. Good people. Car was fixed quickly.
I don’t know, but I think Teheran threw more meatballs last night in one inning than he did during all of spring training. I also think he slowed down his motion slightly on his fastball to try to throw it harder. It seems consistent with what was said above about him overthrowing his fastball.
Julio Teheran is having what we call a ‘rookie campaign.’ Remember when Mike Minor sucked? It’s like that, only with higher upside.
@34
I wish Keith Law would go away.
Teheran’s breaking ball was buckling the knees of several guys last night. Really hope he can get his fastball under control.
Bear with me – I hope I don’t screw up the formatting.
Game Pitches Seen BB K
Phi 128 3 8
Phi 184 6 16
Phi 117 0 10
ChC 149 4 6
ChC 132 3 7
ChC 135 4 16
@Mia 133 0 6
@Mia 126 1 9
@Mia 145 5 6
@Was 146 7 8
@Was 173 3 8
@Was 155 6 4
KC 123 2 6
KC 133 0 11
@Pit 173 8 7
Total 2152 52 128
Pitches/Inning 16.55
(I counted 130 innings for the Braves, 6 home games where they didn’t bat in the 9th, plus the 10 inning Folk Hero II game in DC.)
So, what do I glean from this foray into the scary world of sabermetrics? I dunno, beats the Hell out of me. But, I’ll take a wild ass guess and say that the Braves, averaging seeing almost 17 pitches per inning, get to have quite a few innings per game where the opposing pitcher throws over 20 pitches.
And if they’re doing that early, then the opposing starters maybe getting stressed so that the Braves might be killing those offerings in the middle innings. But, I haven’t run the runs scored by inning and am not sure how to go about finding that easily (although I’m sure it is out there somewhere.)
Anybody else have any thoughts on this?
Edit: Yep, screwed up the formatting, sorry. Also, note that the Braves have only had 4 games where they didn’t see 130 pitches or more so far.
@41 Great analysis! That’s one of the most encouraging things I’ve seen about this lineup. Wearing out pitchers is so important and can mess a team up even after you leave town.
fangraphs has Heyward’s LD% at 19.5%, which would be the highest of his career. It seems that the .103 BABIP is the main culprit here. I hope things normalize soon on that front – it’d be awesome to have him hitting in front of Upton, Gattis, and Freeman (who could return Monday).
On the other hand, the Braves actually see fewer pitches per plate appearance than other teams (3.79 vs. NL average of 3.84, according to ESPN). And that strikeout to walk ratio of 2.46 is very close to the NL average of 2.51.
It doesn’t look like plate discipline alone is explaining the Braves’ success so far. (Mind you, our pitchers have excellent control- their 3.0 K/BB ratio is 3rd in the league- but throw 3.8 pitches per plate appearance.)
JH double play last night was a line drive. He should have hit it on ground to Zimmerman for sure error.
@44 We get more than our shares of Ks both pitching and hitting. Ks require more pitches. Who had 13 or 14 pitch at bat last night?
That was Reed Johnson, pinch-hitting for Teheran.
Evan Gattis is a good catcher.
I’m happy to admit when I’m wrong. I didn’t think he’d stick, but he’s looked fine, and now there are numbers to tell me just how wrong I was.
Gattis needs to cross the ‘Francoeur line’ in PAs before I’ll get excited. Remember, Francoeur ended his first month with the Atlanta Braves with a 1.326 OPS.
Apparently Gattis has a “wide stance.”
41 – The only games we lost were the 2 where we did not draw a walk?
43 – Based on his LD%, Heyward should have a .315 BABIP. That’s how “unlucky” he has been.
Mildly amazing, I guess, but… get a life? (see video)
http://tinyurl.com/9wbpez2
#47
No, Reed Johnson flew out to RF. Heyward’s LD was very hump-backed, not exactly scalded.
48 – So Gattis is among the best and Laird is among the worst at framing?
I wonder what the cause / effect relationship is with Laird framing data and Julio Teheran starts.
BTW, helluva mound matchup tonight in Flushing: Strasburg vs. Harvey.
Meanwhile, in Arizona:
.254/.301/.433
@55 Arizona is a batter’s park. What is home road split? Upton has proven that unimportant in SSS.
So, what you’re implying is that the trade with AZ has worked out so far?
Yeah, I’m not concerned with Heyward. His strikeout numbers have been fine, he’s been driving the ball in the air for the most part…. It’s just been going at people a bit too much. He’s fine.
“@55 Arizona is a batter’s park. What is home road split?”
Prado in Arizona this year: .289/.349/.500
Prado on the road: .207/.233/.345
We also didn’t draw a walk in the Miami series opener, but we won that one 2-0 I think. (Or maybe it was the 3-2 game…)
@49
Ugh. It absolutely grates on me when I see comments like yours. I applaud cautious optimism, but yours is obviously not the first to reference Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy was never as polished a hitter as Evan Gattis has been so far. Allow me to also point out that in that first month of play, in 46 PA (2 less than Gattis has), Francoeur didn’t draw a single walk.
Evan Gattis so far has 4 walks to go with his 5 home runs. Evan Gattis shows terrific plate discipline and contact to go along with one of the most powerful swings in baseball.
Be cautiously optimistic, but be real about how special this guy could be.
A couple of thoughts:
Laird has been “bad” at framing his pitches because he’s caught Julio Teheran and virtually no other pitcher. Can’t frame pitches that are nowhere close. But Gattis has been quite good behind the plate so far.
Comparing Gattis to Francoeur really fails to understand the concept of offensive skills sets. Francoeur never had Gattis’ power. He never had Gattis’ batting eye. And he didn’t have a good month. He had a good first 10 days.
“And he didn’t have a good month. He had a good first 10 days.”
Francoeur had more than a good first ten days:
http://tinyurl.com/bbs7b83
It took him just over a month (July 7 to about mid-August) to start tailing off.
Gattis is much more patient at the plate than Francoeur ever was.
First 15 games: 413/413/913
Next 28 games: 312/364/514
Next 27 games: 235/273/422
I’ll stick with my reading of that trend line, thank you very much. His entire career is based on those first 10-15 games.
He’s not a good comp for Gattis.
“I’ll stick with my reading of that trend line, thank you very much.”
You do that. .312/.364/.514 is pretty damn good, if not as red hot as the first fifteen games.
If the general point is “SSS,” then fine. It’s true that we really don’t know yet what level of production to expect from Gattis. But there’s no meaningful comparison between Gattis and Franceour, they’re completely different hitters.
The downward trend is clear after 15 games, and if you were watching at the time, from the 10th game forward. He’s not a good comp for Gattis.
The league will adjust to Gattis. It’s Major League Baseball. The league watches and learns. Gattis has far more of a rounded skill set to respond to that adjustment with one of his own. (Plus, Francoeur NEVER showed this kind of power.)
Frenchy definitely has Gattis’ power. Difference being he needs to get lucky and run into a fastball.
Really good writeup. Not Mrs. Stu-good, but really good.
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I should know, but has there been a definitive statement on the extent of Avilan’s injury?
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Hard to describe my reaction to Gattis’ homerun. I feel like the churlish writer in “The Natural” – anything he wants to hit, he hits.
As if that isn’t enough, he’s proving to be a damn good catcher.
Serious decisions to be made and soon.
I’m gonna take Heyward’s LD% with a giant grain of salt. He’s not hit the ball hard much this year. A broken-bat one-hopper to second wouldn’t be an “LD” in my book, but I bet there’s a few of those in there.
He’s gonna continue to get pitched hard-in until he adjusts.
68- Francoeur definitely does not have Gattis’ power. Not even close. His career ISO is a pathetic .159. And even when he does get lucky and run into a fastball his power can hardly be described as impressive. Average home run distance for his career is fewer than 400 feet. In most years fewer than 390.
Frenchy has Gatti’s raw power, that’s for sure. Gattis has just been better at making consistent contact in-game. So you could say Frenchy’s raw “plays down” due to his poor choices about what to swing at.
Gattis is sui generis, so trying to comp him is most likely an exercise in futility. If the ride ends, it ends, but his entire body of work is see baseball/mash baseball at every single level, so what’s to say it will, other than ingrained pessimism?
Also he looks like a freaking ox at the plate, so there’s that eye test too.
But I think the original point was about his defense. It’s quite heartening to see him doing well in those defensive areas (pitch framing, game calling) that really save a team runs. Those skills aren’t as subject to sample-size variation as hitting, so I think we can conclude he’s more than acceptable as a defensive catcher. Which is good because that was everyone’s hangup about him before we’d seen him play.
72-If “raw power” is some mythical quality that can’t be shown statistically, then ok, sure.
@59 Prado AZ splits are Upton like. This year Upton splits are minimal. SSS.
Frenchy may have swung at the hard, high pitches, but he never caught up with one.
Please allow me to insert some precision to Frenchy’s 2005 stats. The apex of his numbers were actually in game 22 of his young career, of which 20 were starts. His numbers after going 4 for 4 on August 9th were .432/.439/.827/1.266.
That slash line was virtually identical to his slash line on game 11, so for the next 12 games after that he kept up the same level of production..
He went 4 for 24 with no walks over his next 6 starts, which is the beginning of his gradual decline towards Kansas City.
Frenchy has a really long swing, while Gattis’ is short, simple & powerful (like Horner).
They look very different to me.
Frenchy’s raw power was always just hype. Raw power is what Justin Upton has. And Fat Juan. And Gattis. In the past four years Francouer has hit 50 home runs. A mere four of those traveled even the AVERAGE distance of a Justin Upton homer. It’s crazy.
Meanwhile in Mississippi, Christian Bethancourt is hitting .265/.286/.412. I’m rooting for him to be a late bloomer hitting, but I think the day may be near that the Braves pawn him off on an organization that likes his tools and overrates “laser rocket arm throw to second” as a catcher-defense skill.
They say that Caesar had his minions whisper “you’re only a man” in his ear to keep perspective.
Pretty sure I need someone to whisper “it’s only April” to me, but the performance of both Gattis and Chris Johnson is just so damn heartening. Two big areas of High Fret have turned into strengths.
May it continue.
Amen!
@28 – I agree that shortstop is more difficult in that it is harder to play shortstop well than it is to find good catchers, but a truly horrible catcher will cost you a ball game a lot faster than a truly horrible shortstop.
A catcher may handle more balls in an inning than a shortstop may handle in a game. The first baserunner of any kind would be a problem. Passed balls and stolen bases would add up quickly. A horrible shortstop would kill you more slowly.
Another guess is, I imagine 75% of right handed throwing major leaguers played shortstop at some point in their lives, including the pitchers. Catching, not so much. Reed Johnson probably would be excited to be asked to play shortstop, he may not be so excited to try to handle Craig Kimbrel coming at him.
@82 – Correct. Hopefully when Johnson turns into a pumpkin and the league adjusts to Gattis then Heyward, Uggla and McCann will be themselves.
Gattis’s quick short slashing stroke generates amazing power. I am guessing its the topspin he generates.
That reminds me – did you all see the catcher take the fastball straight off the mask, sending it flying and him reeling?
He must have been looking for a slider, but I haven’t seen that clean a shot before. Looked like something off of Jackass.
@85 I think baseballs are just scared of Gattis.
dang, not topspin, backspin.
Gattis is my dad’s new favorite player. He missed out on all the hype about him and had no idea who he was, just saw him as this new guy catching for the Braves. For my dad it’s the quick swing combined with the immense strength, as evidenced by that monster pinch-hit homer last night.
I can tell you Frenchy never would have been able to do what Gattis did to that upper 90s fastball from Strasburg last weekend.
Gattis in the lineup batting 4th at 1b tonight? interesting.
Feliz Avilan!
@mlbbowman
Avilan jogged with little discomfort today and completed a pain-free 25-pitch bullpen session. He hopes to be available on Sat. or Sun.
His second start at 1B to keep him in the lineup. Fredi did that in Washington too.
Justin Upton’s power profile has been unbelievable. You see Gattis and he’s this big ox of a man and you sort of expect the ball to fly when he hits it. Upton isn’t a huge guy, but to date he’s generated Bonds-like power to all fields. It’s been amazing.
And I strongly suspect that Reed Johnson is the 3rd string catcher until McCann returns and shifts Laird to that role.
Perhaps Walker’s video analysis has taken Justin to the elite level we all hoped he could achieve?
Well, to quote Alan’s analysis from the podcast, Justin Upton two years ago was an MVP candidate, as a 23 year old. Last year, Justin Upton was merely Jason Heyward (in a good year.) Thing is, last year Justin Upton had basically the same thumb injury that derailed Heyward’s sophomore season. Which means, when fighting through that thumb injury that turned Jason Heyward into Jose Constanza, Upton was Jason Heyward.
Dude may simply be Barry Bonds reborn. It’s a long shot, certainly, but he’s simply crushing the ball like no one I’ve seen since Bonds or 1999 era Chipper.
Fredi mentioned that Dewitt was the emergency catcher.
@95 – I would add Chris Johnson to that discussion. I wonder if the Walker-Fletcher combo have been helping out.
@97 – probably the guy who is just happiest to be there is the emergency catcher on a lot of teams.
It’s hard to believe that Chris was just a throw in to the Justin deal and he’s been so crucial in these first few weeks. It’d be crazy if he turns out to really be a solid hitter and a real 3B.
If there’s one Brave we should be throwing sample size red flags on high and hard, it’s Chris Johnson. Gattis is an unknown quantity. Upton is just really friggin’ good. Chris Johnson is Chris Johnson, more likely than not.
Yeah CJ’s played awesomely but he has a ridiculous >.500 BABIP right now. He’s probably been as lucky as Heyward’s been unlucky.
Even if he turns back into a pumpkin, he’s filled in for Freeman very nicely.
Thanks, Bethany @92! I’m doing the Avilan Happy Dance.
Gonna need that kid. Or Venters. But we can’t do without both.
Remember when he was called “Everyday Johnny”? Out, out brief candle.
103- This team really is as well defended against pumpkinization (if it wasn’t a word, it is now) as any team I can remember, with the multipositional abilities of all our outfielders, Chris Johnson, Gattis, and Pena.
Yeah, Johnson has been fantastic, but he’s also been to bloop hits what Heyward has been to loud outs.
@96 – A Heywardian “good year” is either a 134 wrc+ with 4.7 WAR or 120 wrc+ with 6.3 WAR. J.Upton’s 2012 was a far cry from that (108/2). Not to take anything away from Upton, who is awesome and, I think, a more powerful hitter than Heyward, but their careers have been pretty similar so far, Upton’s with a little more bat and Heyward’s with a little more glove and running.
105 – Not only is it (almost) a word, it has a very rich history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocolocyntosis_divi_Claudii
Game thread.