Welcome back Mac! Of course, if the Braves lose, you’ll need to go back under the knife and take lots and lots of pain medication – you know – for the good of the team.
🙂
(Glad to have you back – and hope you’ll be putting up game threads for many seasons to come.)
To be honest, I was surprised to see Wilson go in as a pinch runner for BMac in the ninth inning Wednesday night. I thought Ross would sit on the shelf forever. But that was the right move. Who knows? Maybe Fredi’s loosening up?
I wasn’t exactly JC’ed from the last thread but I posted it right before the thread went up, so… in response to a Sam comment about a column about Eric Wedge and its relevance to Fredi Gonzalez:
I don’t disagree with the point of that column. I basically take everything that a baseball person says with a grain of salt, whether they’re talking about stats, strategy, or potential trades. They are deliberately trained in platitudes, deception, and obfuscation.
So I don’t mind that Fredi doesn’t talk about advanced stats in his pressers. By all accounts, he is conscious of advanced stats and has indicated publicly that he isn’t averse to them — unlike some broadcasters.
What I mind about Fredi is the specific decisions that he makes in baseball games. They are frequently questionable, and they frequently do not work out to the Braves’ advantage.
The bullpen thing has been beaten to death, and you’ve already criticized Fredi on that, so I’ll move on. Likewise, I will leave alone the stupid bunting thing, where he asks his number two hitter to bunt the leadoff man to second. And I will not mention last year’s collapse, which we all know about.
As a general matter, I wish Fredi did a better job with his situational substitutions, both relief and pinch hitting. I especially wish he’d be more willing to use David Ross. More generally, his substitutions seem to suggest that he doesn’t think of leverage in the same way we do. He seems to think of leverage in terms of what inning it is. Obviously, the inning isn’t irrelevant. But he doesn’t seem to take game situation into account as much as I’d like.
I don’t particularly care what Fredi says. I care what he does. This team has a great deal of talent, and in a little over a year, Fredi’s Braves are 101-80. But I don’t know how much worse they’d be under a different manager, which is the counterfactual that would demonstrate how much Fredi actually adds to the team. Using the data I mentioned the other day, I believe that the data conclusively shows that Bobby Cox made his players better. I’m not sure that Fredi Gonzalez does.
I don’t think that Fredi is the worst manager in baseball. But I don’t think he’s a good one. Obviously, what I think is a lot less important than what the players think. If they believe in him, then they’ll play well for him, and they’ll probably win a fair amount, despite his suboptimal bullpen use and bunting tactics. If they don’t play well, that won’t be proof that Fredi deserves the blame, but considering last year, it would be fairly compelling circumstantial evidence.
Right now, I’m feeling pretty great about being 12-3 in our last 15 games, and I’m flying high. I’m feeling starved for baseball. Just 5 more hours now.
Remy, he’s done that before; he’s always been willing to essentially sub one catcher for the other in the later innings, whether it’s to get McCann’s bat in there or to run with a faster player or whatever. What he’s been completely unwilling to do, for whatever reason, is use the sitting catcher as a pinch-hitter in the pitcher’s spot and then keep right on going with the starting catcher at catcher. He’s only willing to go without a back-up catcher if the guy who’ll be catching hasn’t alrady been catching for 7+ innings.
The desire to see Ross as a PH ignores the fact that he’s the backup catcher, and the fact that catchers take massive beatings behind the plate and can be injured on *any pitch.* It also presumes that the “emergency catcher” is not actually an emergency option, but just a third option that is equally available as Ross or McCann.
Ross doesn’t PH, and the starting catcher is not PR for except in true game-on-the-line, ninth inning scenarios, because Matt Diaz would be a horror behind the plate and you don’t put him there unless BOTH of your catchers gets hurt in the same game.
Thanks, Stu, for pointing that out. Somehow, those one-for-one swaps escaped me. I agree completely with your other observations/comments. Seems a waste to let Ross, a RH hitter, sit like that.
The unwillingness to use Ross as a PH ignores the fact that, in reality, catcher injuries are extremely rare, and managers almost never have to go to the #2 guy due to injury, much less the Matt Diazes of the roster.
David ross is a very good hitter, and the difference between his bat and, say, Jack Wilson’s is well worth the miniscule accompanying risk.
BTW, I was reading an article about the Tigers on ESPN.com and several of the comments were anti-Leyland. That doesn’t, of course, prove that the majority of Tiger fans don’t like him, but the point is, I think, that many fans tend to think their manager is uniquely stupid.
Yeah, I think we’re all pretty happy we don’t have Guillen for a manager. Admittedly, I can’t think of anyone other than Guillen I’d take Fredi over, but at least Fredi can’t reasonably be called the worst in baseball. Guillen’s just on a whole different level.
Gosh, last night was hilarious. Bell’s throwing balls all over the place, past the catcher a number of times, issuing multiple walks, and Guillen just sits there and lets the game fall apart. I was cracking up.
I’d like to believe that Fredi would have at least pulled his closer at some point during that. Leaving him in there is just mean.
Actually, the data in Chris Jaffe’s book “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers” suggests that Jim Leyland has not been particularly successful at getting his players to play better than they otherwise would. In particular, the data suggest that his pitchers have tended to underperform.
So, either the data’s wrong and Leyland has had a positive effect that the data aren’t capturing, or Leyland might be an overrated manager who has helmed a lot of very talented teams.
I think the truth is probably somewhere in between. But, at any rate, the fans who bitch about Leyland would be justified by those data.
I love the Band’s version of Atlantic City, and yet I’ve never seen that video. Obviously, it made me sad, especially when Rick Danko’s voice first pops in.
On the relative rarity of catcher injuries, here is David Ross’s injury history and Brian McCann’s injury history. Ross hasn’t missed a game due to injury since June 2010, and hasn’t been on the DL since 2009. McCann has obviously been hurt more, with DL trips in 2006, 2009, and 2011.
The real question is how likely it is that the catcher would get injured and have to come out of the game, after the other catcher had already been used as a pinch hitter. It’s very unlikely that the second stringer would be used as a PH before the 7th inning, so unless the game goes into extras, the maximum number of innings that the catcher would have to squat would be three. The chance of serious injury in any three-inning period is low. I think that a refusal to use the catcher as a late-inning PH is simply overly risk-averse.
I realize that you guys think David Ross should be a pinch hitter more often because you don’t like Matt Diaz any more, and you think it’s a negligible worry to have PH for a catcher and then have the replacement get hurt, requiring that Diaz then catch.
You’re not wrong on the math. The probabilities are low.
You’re wrong nonetheless. The fact that your backup catcher can hit is a plus, yet you’ve turned it upside down and complain about it now, because you want to use him as something other than a backup catcher.
Actually, I don’t mind Diaz. It’s just that our PH depth chart goes something like this:
1A) Hinske (against RHP)
1B) Ross (he actually doesn’t have much of a platoon split)
2A) Francisco (against RHP)
2B) Diaz (against LHP)
3) Wilson (sucks against everybody)
Every time that Fredi pinch-hits with Wilson, our worst bench bat, instead of Ross, arguably our best bench bat, our chances of scoring decrease. That’s what I’m saying.
16 — If the backup catcher is one of the best pinch hitters available to the team how are people wrong in wanting him to actually pinch hit?
Do you see him becoming a worse backup catcher if he were to pinch hit once every third game or so? Does he become a worse hitter with more plate appearances?
I have no problem with PHing Diaz instead of Ross against a LHP, but I agree that in general, he should get the AB over Wilson, especially in late innings/runners on base situations. Late in the game the cost is much less in terms of risk to lose an important defensive player (though seriously, what’s worse? Having Diaz play C or having Chipper play SS?), and in RBI situations, Ross is like infinity times more likley to get a double or HR than Wilson is. If you’re talking about an AB to lead off the 6th inning when the pitcher had to get pulled early I don’t really have a problem with Ross getting the PA ahead of Wilson. (Though you’d figure Diaz or Hinske would be available at that point.)
21 – No, Ross would not become a worse hitter if he were to more often than he does. (He *does* become a worse hitter if he plays every day, as we saw last year when McCann went down with the back injury, but I don’t think that is applicable to a few more PH appearances.)
The problem isn’t that using Ross would make him a worse hitter. It wouldn’t. The problem is that PH’ing Ross means you NO LONGER HAVE A BACKUP CATCHER for that game. The “USE ROSS” crowd says “that’s a negligible concern, here, look rarely McCann and Ross go on the DL.” But DL stints aren’t really the thing a manager is concerned with. A manager is concerned with a foul tip that cracks McCann’s thumb and requires he get iced down in the 6th (to PREVENT a DL stint) and then having to play 3 innings with Matt Diaz behind the plate.
I say that’s a perfectly reasonable concern. It’s not irrational, even if the probabilities of it happening are low. Ross is the backup catcher, and he be used as the backup catcher primarily, and as a PH secondarily.
RE – the complaints about Wilson, the roster was built to facilitate the question mark at SS with Pastornicky, and includes the final year of Diaz’ contract (vs some other, more beloved/useful RH hitter off the bench.) Complain about the roster construction as you will, but those are the players Gonzalez has available to him, and he believes (as does every other ML manager, including the more beloved managers such as Joe Maddon, etc) that he needs to hold his backup catcher back and not use him as a PH unless it’s very late (9th inning late) in the game.
There are situations where using Wilson instead of Ross/Hinske/Diaz makes sense. (I know, I know. Throw knives as you will.) If you are late in the game and need a bunt (I know, I know!) Wilson is a very good option. If you’re double switching for the pitcher’s spot before the 7th or 8th, Wilson’s a good option. (That allows you to put Wilson in for defense and bat 9th, pulling Pastornicky rather than a more skilled hitter.)
If there are runners to be driven in, you should use one of the other guys. But it’s also not a bad move, per se, in a close game, to use Wilson early (maybe he gets a hit, and he has doubles power occasionally) and save Hinske or Ross or Diaz for later, when you might need a HR to tie or win.
Fair enough, Sam. I’m not advocating using Ross as the first bat off the bench in the 6th or even 7th inning. Where I would love to see Ross get in is when the game is on the line, down one or two in the 8th or 9th I really want to see the best hitter pinch hit (that could off course be Hinske or Diaz if they are still available).
At that point I don’t really see why it would be a risk. If at that point, against all odds, McCann needs to get his hand iced or something, just put anyone behind the plate and “forfeit” the game really.
Now, even if that is what I would prefer to happen and I don’t see the logic in not doing it, I’m not particular on Fredi because of it, it’s not like he’s the last bastion of refusing to pinch hit his backup catcher. I’m not sure any manager does it anywhere.
Okay. Still, we should be able to do a conceptual cost-benefit function.
If McCann starts, and the Braves are tied in the 7th inning, and the pitcher comes up, then expected value of pinch-hitting with Ross should be:
[the degree to which Ross increases our likelihood of scoring over our next-best pinch hitter] – [the percentage risk McCann gets injured before the game ends * the number of runs that Diaz’s crappy defense is likely to cost us before the game ends]
You are arguing that this quantity is negative. I’m arguing that it’s positive. But can we both agree that it fundamentally turns on the quantity obtained by multiplying the risk of injury by the number of runs that Diaz’s defense would cost us?
You can break it down that way yes, with my only caveat being that very, very few managers at any level will create that sort of algebraic formula themselves. They’ll go on “gut instinct.”
This is a ridiculous argument. If you’re down 1 in the 9th, and Ross is the guy most likely to help you score, you’re supposed to make a suboptimal choice for a pinch hitter, because “but what if we tie, go 11, and McCann gets hurt?”
Here’s an analog: game goes 16 tied and your long man just finished his 6th inning of work. Do you get tomorrow’s starter warmed up? Or do you send your long man out til you win or lose?
When the Braves were down 1 in the ninth, in the finale of the LA series, Brian McCann was pinch run for (Jack Wilson) and David Ross pinch hit (Tyler Pastornicky.) So apparently JJ, Fredi and I are all in agreement that when the game is well and truly on the line – what I call “9th inning late” situations above – of course you empty the gun of every bullet you have. The question isn’t if your down in the 9th. The open question, it seems to me, is usage of Ross as a PH earlier in games.
Dude, I’m sure the manager goes with his gut instinct. Every time I criticize Fredi Gonzalez, it’s because I believe that his gut was wrong and I think I can prove it analytically.
As noted above, Fredi will sub 1 for 1, using his backup catcher only if he’s taking down his starter.
When McCann sits, he’s been used to PH for the pitcher, and for Ross. In both cases, he often comes in to catch afterward.
If its the 7th inning, we’re down 1, there are 2 on base, Ross should be used to help win that game.
And if McCann gets hurt in the 8th, and Diaz has to catch, what happens? A cavalcade if passed balls, dropped strikes, and stolen bases? Okay, so, you lose. But you were losing when you used Ross. I just don’t think this is even an argument.
I understand that Alex. But I doubt that your “prove it analytically” amounts to a lot more than “my gut instinct is different than his.” I know *you* think it is, but I don’t think you’re case is nearly as airtight as you think.
Sam, of course it isn’t airtight — I freely admit I’m relying on airy unknowables rather than actual numbers. But I’m breaking it down that way so that I can nail down exactly where you and I disagree. You and I disagree on the relative worth of 1) Ross’s offensive awesomeness and 2) the product of (Diaz’s defensive crappiness and McCann’s injury propensity).
That’s a fair disagreement. But it’s not ridiculous for me to hold my position, and I’m trying to get you to acknowledge that your position isn’t the only defensible one, despite your claims at @6 that I “ignore” the relative merits, or that what I’m proposing is something “you just don’t” do.
The Brewers, who also have an excellent backup catcher, use him as a pinch hitter regularly. I might be missing something, but I’m pretty sure no revolution has ensued. The only thing that has happened has been Kottaras helping them win a couple games. I’d say Fredi’s unwillingness to use Ross, aside from the bunts, bothers me the most. The bullpen use comes in a distant third.
To clarify my position, and where we disagree, Alex:
I think you undervalue defensive difference between Ross and Diaz. I think Diaz behind the plate would be an atrocity on wheels.
I think you overvalue the probability of “offensive awesomeness” from Ross *in a single at bat.*
I don’t think your position is ridiculous, and the tendency of internet debate to sort of degrade naturally to barricades and rock throwing is distorting our fields here. I apologize for my part in that.
I am more interested in providing a counter-balance to the position that *Fredi Gonzalez’ position is ridiculous* than showing yours to be.
Good question. Last year, apparently, it was McGehee. This spring, they were looking at Brooks Conrad as their emergency catcher, but cut him in favor of Travis Ishikawa. I can’t find any mention on the internet of just who their third-string catcher is behind Lucroy and Kottaras.
@43 is it telling that its yet to be an issue? How many times have they not settled for sub-optimal matchups, and not had an “oh-noes! Now Zack Greinke has to catch!” moment?
Yeah. I thought it might be Mat Gamel but I was just misremembering his terrible defense at third. I honestly don’t know who their 3rd string C is*, and even more obviously, I have no idea how much they trust/value his defense behind the plate.
So, the net-net of it is, 1) the Brewers may just be ahead of the curve on using good-hitting backup catchers as PH options, or 2) the Braves are just a too-conservative organization to embrace such usage patterns, or 3) the Brewers trust their backup catcher a lot more than the Braves, whoever that player might be.
*I want to think Nyjer Morgan was the third string catcher for the Nats when he was with Washington, which would be awesome if he ever had to be used back there, preferably against the Marlins.
@45- I doubt the Brewers have an involved algebraic formula weighing the relative costs-benefits, either… I bet Ron Roenicke’s gut tells him “Well if I end up sticking K-Rod behind the plate, I’m probably going to lose… But, shit, I’m losing anyway. Send Kottaras up there, let’s win this thing.”
The obvious (to me) solution to the Ross PH dilemma is to actually have a third catcher. Someone like Wilson, only he can sit at C for 3 innings or so in the rare chance it’s actually needed.
I knew after all the talk about the catchers never getting hurt one of them was going to have something happen soon, didn’t think it would be this early.
Okay, they’re showing McCann – no idea why he left. Speaking as someone who has pulled his hamstring multiple times recently, it *might* have been something (a tight muscle?) as he left the box on his last AB?
Uggla gets 2 RBI on a double…but Chipper gets two RBI on only a single…obvious decline in skills…and he’s paid more than Uggla. Need I say more? (/tad)
Went to dinner in Sunnyside when the Mets were up 5-2. By the time we were done & went to our little Irish pub down the street, it was 14-6 Rockies. Tough to win when you’re giving up 11-run innings, then a grand slam after that. Games in that park are such a freak show.
Anyway, a good night. Gotta beat up on the Pirates. Maybe we can get through the weekend in 1st place. Go Dodgers.
Wow, fun game! Hanson didn’t look great, but he got the job done in fine enough fashion tonight. I loved the three-inning save for Medlen. No need to pull him. Plus, he apparently knows how to play the hitting side of the game, which is more than I can say for most of our starting staff.
RE: B. Harper – he opens with a Maysian slump start – you know, something like 0 for 31, and the Nats get so discouraged they trade him for C. Durbin, who they still regret releasing in Spring Training.
Good to have you back, Mac.
Welcome back Mac! Of course, if the Braves lose, you’ll need to go back under the knife and take lots and lots of pain medication – you know – for the good of the team.
🙂
(Glad to have you back – and hope you’ll be putting up game threads for many seasons to come.)
JC’d from last thread:
To be honest, I was surprised to see Wilson go in as a pinch runner for BMac in the ninth inning Wednesday night. I thought Ross would sit on the shelf forever. But that was the right move. Who knows? Maybe Fredi’s loosening up?
Go, Braves!
Hope you’re feeling better, Mac.
I wasn’t exactly JC’ed from the last thread but I posted it right before the thread went up, so… in response to a Sam comment about a column about Eric Wedge and its relevance to Fredi Gonzalez:
I don’t disagree with the point of that column. I basically take everything that a baseball person says with a grain of salt, whether they’re talking about stats, strategy, or potential trades. They are deliberately trained in platitudes, deception, and obfuscation.
So I don’t mind that Fredi doesn’t talk about advanced stats in his pressers. By all accounts, he is conscious of advanced stats and has indicated publicly that he isn’t averse to them — unlike some broadcasters.
What I mind about Fredi is the specific decisions that he makes in baseball games. They are frequently questionable, and they frequently do not work out to the Braves’ advantage.
The bullpen thing has been beaten to death, and you’ve already criticized Fredi on that, so I’ll move on. Likewise, I will leave alone the stupid bunting thing, where he asks his number two hitter to bunt the leadoff man to second. And I will not mention last year’s collapse, which we all know about.
As a general matter, I wish Fredi did a better job with his situational substitutions, both relief and pinch hitting. I especially wish he’d be more willing to use David Ross. More generally, his substitutions seem to suggest that he doesn’t think of leverage in the same way we do. He seems to think of leverage in terms of what inning it is. Obviously, the inning isn’t irrelevant. But he doesn’t seem to take game situation into account as much as I’d like.
I don’t particularly care what Fredi says. I care what he does. This team has a great deal of talent, and in a little over a year, Fredi’s Braves are 101-80. But I don’t know how much worse they’d be under a different manager, which is the counterfactual that would demonstrate how much Fredi actually adds to the team. Using the data I mentioned the other day, I believe that the data conclusively shows that Bobby Cox made his players better. I’m not sure that Fredi Gonzalez does.
I don’t think that Fredi is the worst manager in baseball. But I don’t think he’s a good one. Obviously, what I think is a lot less important than what the players think. If they believe in him, then they’ll play well for him, and they’ll probably win a fair amount, despite his suboptimal bullpen use and bunting tactics. If they don’t play well, that won’t be proof that Fredi deserves the blame, but considering last year, it would be fairly compelling circumstantial evidence.
Right now, I’m feeling pretty great about being 12-3 in our last 15 games, and I’m flying high. I’m feeling starved for baseball. Just 5 more hours now.
From the last thread…
Alex, very well said.
Remy, he’s done that before; he’s always been willing to essentially sub one catcher for the other in the later innings, whether it’s to get McCann’s bat in there or to run with a faster player or whatever. What he’s been completely unwilling to do, for whatever reason, is use the sitting catcher as a pinch-hitter in the pitcher’s spot and then keep right on going with the starting catcher at catcher. He’s only willing to go without a back-up catcher if the guy who’ll be catching hasn’t alrady been catching for 7+ innings.
The desire to see Ross as a PH ignores the fact that he’s the backup catcher, and the fact that catchers take massive beatings behind the plate and can be injured on *any pitch.* It also presumes that the “emergency catcher” is not actually an emergency option, but just a third option that is equally available as Ross or McCann.
Ross doesn’t PH, and the starting catcher is not PR for except in true game-on-the-line, ninth inning scenarios, because Matt Diaz would be a horror behind the plate and you don’t put him there unless BOTH of your catchers gets hurt in the same game.
Thanks, Stu, for pointing that out. Somehow, those one-for-one swaps escaped me. I agree completely with your other observations/comments. Seems a waste to let Ross, a RH hitter, sit like that.
The unwillingness to use Ross as a PH ignores the fact that, in reality, catcher injuries are extremely rare, and managers almost never have to go to the #2 guy due to injury, much less the Matt Diazes of the roster.
David ross is a very good hitter, and the difference between his bat and, say, Jack Wilson’s is well worth the miniscule accompanying risk.
BTW, I was reading an article about the Tigers on ESPN.com and several of the comments were anti-Leyland. That doesn’t, of course, prove that the majority of Tiger fans don’t like him, but the point is, I think, that many fans tend to think their manager is uniquely stupid.
I don’t think anyone here thinks that Fredi is uniquely stupid.
Yeah, I think we’re all pretty happy we don’t have Guillen for a manager. Admittedly, I can’t think of anyone other than Guillen I’d take Fredi over, but at least Fredi can’t reasonably be called the worst in baseball. Guillen’s just on a whole different level.
Gosh, last night was hilarious. Bell’s throwing balls all over the place, past the catcher a number of times, issuing multiple walks, and Guillen just sits there and lets the game fall apart. I was cracking up.
I’d like to believe that Fredi would have at least pulled his closer at some point during that. Leaving him in there is just mean.
Actually, the data in Chris Jaffe’s book “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers” suggests that Jim Leyland has not been particularly successful at getting his players to play better than they otherwise would. In particular, the data suggest that his pitchers have tended to underperform.
So, either the data’s wrong and Leyland has had a positive effect that the data aren’t capturing, or Leyland might be an overrated manager who has helmed a lot of very talented teams.
I think the truth is probably somewhere in between. But, at any rate, the fans who bitch about Leyland would be justified by those data.
I love the Band’s version of Atlantic City, and yet I’ve never seen that video. Obviously, it made me sad, especially when Rick Danko’s voice first pops in.
On the relative rarity of catcher injuries, here is David Ross’s injury history and Brian McCann’s injury history. Ross hasn’t missed a game due to injury since June 2010, and hasn’t been on the DL since 2009. McCann has obviously been hurt more, with DL trips in 2006, 2009, and 2011.
The real question is how likely it is that the catcher would get injured and have to come out of the game, after the other catcher had already been used as a pinch hitter. It’s very unlikely that the second stringer would be used as a PH before the 7th inning, so unless the game goes into extras, the maximum number of innings that the catcher would have to squat would be three. The chance of serious injury in any three-inning period is low. I think that a refusal to use the catcher as a late-inning PH is simply overly risk-averse.
I realize that you guys think David Ross should be a pinch hitter more often because you don’t like Matt Diaz any more, and you think it’s a negligible worry to have PH for a catcher and then have the replacement get hurt, requiring that Diaz then catch.
You’re not wrong on the math. The probabilities are low.
You’re wrong nonetheless. The fact that your backup catcher can hit is a plus, yet you’ve turned it upside down and complain about it now, because you want to use him as something other than a backup catcher.
Actually, I don’t mind Diaz. It’s just that our PH depth chart goes something like this:
1A) Hinske (against RHP)
1B) Ross (he actually doesn’t have much of a platoon split)
2A) Francisco (against RHP)
2B) Diaz (against LHP)
3) Wilson (sucks against everybody)
Every time that Fredi pinch-hits with Wilson, our worst bench bat, instead of Ross, arguably our best bench bat, our chances of scoring decrease. That’s what I’m saying.
manager who has helmed a lot of very talented teams.
I think that this is the true definition of a good manager.
@16 – True that. If our backup catcher was Henry Blanco no one would be complaining.
17—Yup. As I noted above, it’s when he sends Wilson up there to pinch-hit that I wish he’d send Ross.
18—Right, because the risk/reward analysis would be drastically different.
16 — If the backup catcher is one of the best pinch hitters available to the team how are people wrong in wanting him to actually pinch hit?
Do you see him becoming a worse backup catcher if he were to pinch hit once every third game or so? Does he become a worse hitter with more plate appearances?
I have no problem with PHing Diaz instead of Ross against a LHP, but I agree that in general, he should get the AB over Wilson, especially in late innings/runners on base situations. Late in the game the cost is much less in terms of risk to lose an important defensive player (though seriously, what’s worse? Having Diaz play C or having Chipper play SS?), and in RBI situations, Ross is like infinity times more likley to get a double or HR than Wilson is. If you’re talking about an AB to lead off the 6th inning when the pitcher had to get pulled early I don’t really have a problem with Ross getting the PA ahead of Wilson. (Though you’d figure Diaz or Hinske would be available at that point.)
21 – No, Ross would not become a worse hitter if he were to more often than he does. (He *does* become a worse hitter if he plays every day, as we saw last year when McCann went down with the back injury, but I don’t think that is applicable to a few more PH appearances.)
The problem isn’t that using Ross would make him a worse hitter. It wouldn’t. The problem is that PH’ing Ross means you NO LONGER HAVE A BACKUP CATCHER for that game. The “USE ROSS” crowd says “that’s a negligible concern, here, look rarely McCann and Ross go on the DL.” But DL stints aren’t really the thing a manager is concerned with. A manager is concerned with a foul tip that cracks McCann’s thumb and requires he get iced down in the 6th (to PREVENT a DL stint) and then having to play 3 innings with Matt Diaz behind the plate.
I say that’s a perfectly reasonable concern. It’s not irrational, even if the probabilities of it happening are low. Ross is the backup catcher, and he be used as the backup catcher primarily, and as a PH secondarily.
RE – the complaints about Wilson, the roster was built to facilitate the question mark at SS with Pastornicky, and includes the final year of Diaz’ contract (vs some other, more beloved/useful RH hitter off the bench.) Complain about the roster construction as you will, but those are the players Gonzalez has available to him, and he believes (as does every other ML manager, including the more beloved managers such as Joe Maddon, etc) that he needs to hold his backup catcher back and not use him as a PH unless it’s very late (9th inning late) in the game.
There are situations where using Wilson instead of Ross/Hinske/Diaz makes sense. (I know, I know. Throw knives as you will.) If you are late in the game and need a bunt (I know, I know!) Wilson is a very good option. If you’re double switching for the pitcher’s spot before the 7th or 8th, Wilson’s a good option. (That allows you to put Wilson in for defense and bat 9th, pulling Pastornicky rather than a more skilled hitter.)
If there are runners to be driven in, you should use one of the other guys. But it’s also not a bad move, per se, in a close game, to use Wilson early (maybe he gets a hit, and he has doubles power occasionally) and save Hinske or Ross or Diaz for later, when you might need a HR to tie or win.
Bryce Harper gets the call. Interesting.
Fair enough, Sam. I’m not advocating using Ross as the first bat off the bench in the 6th or even 7th inning. Where I would love to see Ross get in is when the game is on the line, down one or two in the 8th or 9th I really want to see the best hitter pinch hit (that could off course be Hinske or Diaz if they are still available).
At that point I don’t really see why it would be a risk. If at that point, against all odds, McCann needs to get his hand iced or something, just put anyone behind the plate and “forfeit” the game really.
Now, even if that is what I would prefer to happen and I don’t see the logic in not doing it, I’m not particular on Fredi because of it, it’s not like he’s the last bastion of refusing to pinch hit his backup catcher. I’m not sure any manager does it anywhere.
Okay. Still, we should be able to do a conceptual cost-benefit function.
If McCann starts, and the Braves are tied in the 7th inning, and the pitcher comes up, then expected value of pinch-hitting with Ross should be:
[the degree to which Ross increases our likelihood of scoring over our next-best pinch hitter] – [the percentage risk McCann gets injured before the game ends * the number of runs that Diaz’s crappy defense is likely to cost us before the game ends]
You are arguing that this quantity is negative. I’m arguing that it’s positive. But can we both agree that it fundamentally turns on the quantity obtained by multiplying the risk of injury by the number of runs that Diaz’s defense would cost us?
You can break it down that way yes, with my only caveat being that very, very few managers at any level will create that sort of algebraic formula themselves. They’ll go on “gut instinct.”
This is a ridiculous argument. If you’re down 1 in the 9th, and Ross is the guy most likely to help you score, you’re supposed to make a suboptimal choice for a pinch hitter, because “but what if we tie, go 11, and McCann gets hurt?”
Here’s an analog: game goes 16 tied and your long man just finished his 6th inning of work. Do you get tomorrow’s starter warmed up? Or do you send your long man out til you win or lose?
When the Braves were down 1 in the ninth, in the finale of the LA series, Brian McCann was pinch run for (Jack Wilson) and David Ross pinch hit (Tyler Pastornicky.) So apparently JJ, Fredi and I are all in agreement that when the game is well and truly on the line – what I call “9th inning late” situations above – of course you empty the gun of every bullet you have. The question isn’t if your down in the 9th. The open question, it seems to me, is usage of Ross as a PH earlier in games.
Dude, I’m sure the manager goes with his gut instinct. Every time I criticize Fredi Gonzalez, it’s because I believe that his gut was wrong and I think I can prove it analytically.
As noted above, Fredi will sub 1 for 1, using his backup catcher only if he’s taking down his starter.
When McCann sits, he’s been used to PH for the pitcher, and for Ross. In both cases, he often comes in to catch afterward.
If its the 7th inning, we’re down 1, there are 2 on base, Ross should be used to help win that game.
And if McCann gets hurt in the 8th, and Diaz has to catch, what happens? A cavalcade if passed balls, dropped strikes, and stolen bases? Okay, so, you lose. But you were losing when you used Ross. I just don’t think this is even an argument.
I understand that Alex. But I doubt that your “prove it analytically” amounts to a lot more than “my gut instinct is different than his.” I know *you* think it is, but I don’t think you’re case is nearly as airtight as you think.
I just don’t think this is even an argument.
Your openness to thinking outside of your own bubble is duly noted, man.
Sam, of course it isn’t airtight — I freely admit I’m relying on airy unknowables rather than actual numbers. But I’m breaking it down that way so that I can nail down exactly where you and I disagree. You and I disagree on the relative worth of 1) Ross’s offensive awesomeness and 2) the product of (Diaz’s defensive crappiness and McCann’s injury propensity).
That’s a fair disagreement. But it’s not ridiculous for me to hold my position, and I’m trying to get you to acknowledge that your position isn’t the only defensible one, despite your claims at @6 that I “ignore” the relative merits, or that what I’m proposing is something “you just don’t” do.
Not that lineup construction matters much, but it’s bizarre that Chipper and Heyward are once again 6th and 7th in the batting order.
The Brewers, who also have an excellent backup catcher, use him as a pinch hitter regularly. I might be missing something, but I’m pretty sure no revolution has ensued. The only thing that has happened has been Kottaras helping them win a couple games. I’d say Fredi’s unwillingness to use Ross, aside from the bunts, bothers me the most. The bullpen use comes in a distant third.
I believe that they all stem from an insufficient valuation of leverage.
To clarify my position, and where we disagree, Alex:
I think you undervalue defensive difference between Ross and Diaz. I think Diaz behind the plate would be an atrocity on wheels.
I think you overvalue the probability of “offensive awesomeness” from Ross *in a single at bat.*
I don’t think your position is ridiculous, and the tendency of internet debate to sort of degrade naturally to barricades and rock throwing is distorting our fields here. I apologize for my part in that.
I am more interested in providing a counter-balance to the position that *Fredi Gonzalez’ position is ridiculous* than showing yours to be.
@33, What jjschiller’s saying has a lot more to it than your assertions that we just don’t like Matt Diaz, for instance.
People saw the CAC piece on how the Brewers use Kottaras, right? I can’t link to it on my phone.
@35 – As long as the Braves are scoring runs and winning ball games, don’t expect the lineup to change much.
Thanks for clarifying, Sam.
In response to the CAC article on the Brewers use of Kottaras I would ask “Who is the Brewer’s third string catcher?”
Good question. Last year, apparently, it was McGehee. This spring, they were looking at Brooks Conrad as their emergency catcher, but cut him in favor of Travis Ishikawa. I can’t find any mention on the internet of just who their third-string catcher is behind Lucroy and Kottaras.
@43 is it telling that its yet to be an issue? How many times have they not settled for sub-optimal matchups, and not had an “oh-noes! Now Zack Greinke has to catch!” moment?
Yeah. I thought it might be Mat Gamel but I was just misremembering his terrible defense at third. I honestly don’t know who their 3rd string C is*, and even more obviously, I have no idea how much they trust/value his defense behind the plate.
So, the net-net of it is, 1) the Brewers may just be ahead of the curve on using good-hitting backup catchers as PH options, or 2) the Braves are just a too-conservative organization to embrace such usage patterns, or 3) the Brewers trust their backup catcher a lot more than the Braves, whoever that player might be.
*I want to think Nyjer Morgan was the third string catcher for the Nats when he was with Washington, which would be awesome if he ever had to be used back there, preferably against the Marlins.
Moose Skowron has died.
http://tinyurl.com/7weksan
@45- I doubt the Brewers have an involved algebraic formula weighing the relative costs-benefits, either… I bet Ron Roenicke’s gut tells him “Well if I end up sticking K-Rod behind the plate, I’m probably going to lose… But, shit, I’m losing anyway. Send Kottaras up there, let’s win this thing.”
11 pitches to retire Alex Presley?!
I hate you Tommy Hanson!
Hanson’s fastball hit 93 when he was pitching to McCutcheon, so that was good to see.
OT, but our local high school has hired former Bulldog Robert Edwards as the new head football coach. Pretty cool.
Well, we looked hapless.
Way to go Uggla!
Sounded like a pretty sporty play by Uggla.
Burnett went 7 and K’d 7 against STL in his first outing.
Aaaand Uggla taketh away.
Who is this mustachioed gentleman out to look at freeman? Where’s my Jeff Porter?
How is that a hit?
WOOOOOO!!!! MARTIN!
The obvious (to me) solution to the Ross PH dilemma is to actually have a third catcher. Someone like Wilson, only he can sit at C for 3 innings or so in the rare chance it’s actually needed.
That’s why having Gattis on the big club would be so useful.
Tommy has been falling in love with his slurve a bit much.
Let’s just pray he gets out of this only allowing 1.
Ugh, Tommy.
Mmmmm. Timely.
Thank god for Chipper Jones.
I’m with ya on Gattis, Bethany. For the record, he’s gone deep again tonight.
Nice walk, Jason.
1) I agree on Gattis. Having Gattis as LF/C/PH option, assuming his bat sticks outside of Lynchberg, would be extremely useful.
2) Having Good Jason Heyward back is extremely pleasant.
100% sb rate
Even better steal.
The Rev!
Heyward has as many steals as “Jason” Bourne, according to Joe.
Woo!!!!!!
Good job, Pasty.
Love me some Heyward.
I’m starting to like this Peskynicky kid.
That third pitch to Hanson looked good.
You know, sometimes things just work out. Nice AB, nice steal to set that up.
The book on Pastonnicky is that he’s basically David Eckstien. Which is useful.
I’ve got to be careful watching this thread – since I’m viewing the game through mlb.tv on my xbox, I’ve got a noticeable delay on when I see things…
Tommy is hard to watch tonight.
… and then he gets to K to shut me up.
That kid can fly.
Is BMac quicker this year?
Wonder who is stealing the Pirates signs.
And he gets caught stealing, making me look like a fool. 🙂
Okay, quick check shows my xbox stream is 55 seconds behind the internet stream. Wow.
I agree Bethany, I’ve been frustrated by Tommy all evening!
I like contract year Bourn.
Come on Freddie!!!! Knock’em in!
Bourn has looked really good this season. Don’t think I want him on a long term deal, but darn if he isn’t fun to cheer for.
Baaaaaaaah, robbed.
Anywhere but straight at Jones and that’s a run.
Burnett looks uncomfortable – not just because of the game situation.
And considering all my comments are a minute late and therefore make no sense… Time to be quiet…
I knew after all the talk about the catchers never getting hurt one of them was going to have something happen soon, didn’t think it would be this early.
Re: Pimpbot16 – DOOOOOOOOOOOMED?
Hanson done for the night? He’s at 102 and seemed to lose it a bit there…
@95, I can’t see the game. What happened?
I’d like to See Medlen go 2 and Kimbrel hopefully closing it out.
@98 – No word, but McCann left the game.
Nice try, Tyler. Man, that would have been nice.
*whew*
It’s always a three ring circus with Uggla on the field.
Haha, Uggla holding his hand out for congratulations and then looking bewildered when nobody there.
WOW. SPORTSCENTER TOP PLAY!
Uggla just made the top ten for that catch against the Dodgers too.
I’m starting to freak out. Somebody post about McCann as soon as they say what the deal is, OK?
They just said still no update.
Yeah, I think it’s weird there’s been no word on McCann. Especially since there was no apparent injury or anything.
“and the meek shall inherit the earth” maybe the best thing Chips ever said!
YES!!!!!!!!!!!
I predict McCann has been traded to Washington for Bryce Harper. The Braves will carry only one catcher for the remainder of the season.
Dubbla!
UGGGGGS
110- He’s probably said that every time he’s watched Evan Meek pitch.
Old man single!
Phillies lost. Marlins losing big. Mets tied in Colorado. Nats late game out west in LA.
CHIPPA!!!!!!!!
The Meek shall inherit the runners, and the Chipper shall make them score.
Has Uggla taken lessons on hitting to opposite field from Tyler Pastornicky?
Chipper looks like he’s having so much fun this season! I don’t remember him ever smiling this much before.
I really like this team.
Can we use Durbin or Livian yet?
Hitting is contagious
Sounds like Medlen for one more than then the Lisp.
@122 – Yes, as 3rd catcher.
@122 – I’d just as soon let Medlen finish – he’s only pitched 2/3 of an inning in 10 days apparently?
Nice Rusty. Kudos. Well played.
Play by play apparently has no idea what happened to McCann.
SEX.
Okay, they’re showing McCann – no idea why he left. Speaking as someone who has pulled his hamstring multiple times recently, it *might* have been something (a tight muscle?) as he left the box on his last AB?
Oh that was grand.
Cramps. The runs. Sex while cramping with the runs. Who knows.
Gonna miss that old man.
Say, this ‘Chipper’ fellow is pretty good.
Old man showing everyone how the game is played tonight.
is anyone else besides me hoping fredi let’s medlen finish this game? let him hit.
Is Medlin really this good?
Not sure about Medlin. Kris Medlen though is really good.
🙂
@137 Medlen is a pitching god.
There is nothing Kris Medlen can not do. Except break in a cap bill, or spell his name correctly.
Sax? He played 2b for the Dodgers?
Medlen hit for himself and singled – looks to go for the three inning save!
AND HE HITS.
@Braves: “McCann left tonight’s game with a right intercostal muscle strain, he is day-to-day.”
And breaks up that double play!
right intercostal (sp?) strain, day to day
Just saw a tweet that McCann has a right intercostal muscle strain and is day to day.
@146 ! The muscles along your ribs. I have trouble with mine all the time.
Ribs and chest muscles. Probably pulled on a swing or the throw to 2nd to get the runner.
Who can we send down so a catcher can come up a few days? Dublin?
You know, this pitcher intimidation business couldd pay off.
Well dang. This game could feature a whole set of Top Ten plays.
I don’t guess after 2 innings that they would use Medlen tomorrow anyway. Might as well go another.
Let’s bring up Gattis and keep him if he keeps his fire. Ok that’s a bad idea but I want to see him play so badly.
Andre Eithier just put the Dogs ahead of the Nats by 2 in the first.
It’s good to see Ross Detwieler get some comeuppance.
Wow – Braves have scored 107 runs on the year, Pirates have 42.
Brilliant job by Medlen! Great win.
Mets are up by 3 in Colorado, and McCann is day-to-day with the pulled ribcage muscle. Otherwise it’s been a pretty good night.
Good win, boys.
Can Hudson start one day later so catcher can come up for the weekend?
Wow. A three inning save. The ol’ Gene Garber special. Haven’t seen that in a while.
Being able to use medlen as your fireman as well as spot starter will make Fredi seem a lot smarter this year
Uggla gets 2 RBI on a double…but Chipper gets two RBI on only a single…obvious decline in skills…and he’s paid more than Uggla. Need I say more? (/tad)
Chippers RBI’s, double play, and diving grab….yep, still sucks
Chipper’s glove sucks in batted balls
It wont last but its always worth addressing.
Pujols – .224/.280/.316 and yes, 10 years of $300 mil on that contract.
Good debate earlier. I’m glad that Adam M mentioned how the Brewers are using their catchers. I had noticed it earlier in the season too.
Hope McCann’s fine or that he’ll take a break for a few days to be fine.
Braves are rolling…
Gattis hit another HR
Mets get destroyed in Colorado 18 to 9.
Went to dinner in Sunnyside when the Mets were up 5-2. By the time we were done & went to our little Irish pub down the street, it was 14-6 Rockies. Tough to win when you’re giving up 11-run innings, then a grand slam after that. Games in that park are such a freak show.
Anyway, a good night. Gotta beat up on the Pirates. Maybe we can get through the weekend in 1st place. Go Dodgers.
Baseball in Denver is hilarious, except, of course, when the Braves have to play there.
Wow, fun game! Hanson didn’t look great, but he got the job done in fine enough fashion tonight. I loved the three-inning save for Medlen. No need to pull him. Plus, he apparently knows how to play the hitting side of the game, which is more than I can say for most of our starting staff.
Thanks for the timely McCann info, friends. Made my annual late night scramble to add David Ross.
Anyone else think Medlen may be getting stretched out for a little starty-starty? /wishfulthinking
Dare I say it? Hanson seems to have stopped putzing around so much and is challenging hitters. Well, moreso, anyway.
I like the trend.
Maybe we could pencil this in for the rest of the year – Tommy for five or six, Medlen to finish. Everyone else gets to rest and we win the game.
Is it wrong of me to hope Bryce Harper opens with a Pujolsian-level slump?
Don’t feel that way about Trout.
RE: B. Harper – he opens with a Maysian slump start – you know, something like 0 for 31, and the Nats get so discouraged they trade him for C. Durbin, who they still regret releasing in Spring Training.
And Harper comes over to fill our gaping emergency catcher hole.
So it was handling a wild pitch/stolen base given up by Tommy that injured McCann.
Put me in the anti-Hanson camp. Nobody messes with McCann.
I’m sure there’ll be a Boscan sighting in Atlanta bringing Gearrin’s short lived MLB stint to a halt.
Chipper #9 on top plays, Uggla #1.
Perhaps Medlen will be our next Rick Camp. Don’t laugh:
Rick Camp finished 20th in the 1981 NL MVP balloting (just ahead of the likes of Keith Hernandez and Steve Garvey) and to celebrate our nation’s independence in 1984 hit a home run against the Mets. He had a fine career as a starter/reliever for the Braves and also got caught up in an post-career embezzlement scandal.
Something for Ol’ Flatty Bill (my nickname for him) to aspire to?
Recapped.