Mike Minor

The Braves apparently were willing to trade Minor during the season last year, but wound up not having to. I think that some teams are going to regret not taking them up on the offer, because Minor looks really promising to me, and I think he’s going to be a front half of the rotation starter for a number of years.

Minor’s ERA was a little worse than the league (4.14, 92 ERA+) but we’re talking a lefty who as a rookie struck out 8.4 per nine and didn’t have any real home run problems. His one concern was that he walked more than you’d like, 30 in 82 2/3 innings. As he gets more experience and confidence in his stuff, that will come down, because he doesn’t really have bad control but a slight tendency to nibble.

Minor’s by-inning splits may be instructive. He had problems in the first inning, allowing a 6.00 ERA and a .328 batting average. (Don’t compare him to Tom Glavine, it’s not healthy.) In the next three innings, his ERAs allowed were 1.80, 3.60, and 1.20. But in the fifth, it skyrocketed to 6.75, and if he got through that it was 6.48 in the sixth. You can blame Fredi for not getting him out of there — you can always blame Fredi — but it’s hard to get too angry at a manager for not being ready to yank his starter in the fifth inning. What I think happens is that Minor has trouble finishing batters off, and winds up throwing extra pitches in those first four innings, which both tires him out and lets hitters see more of his repertoire. By the third time through the order, they’re ready to tee off. As time goes by, Minor will learn how to avoid this… Had a reverse split, by the way, lefties hitting 37 points higher and slugging 63 points higher than righties.

Mike Minor Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

57 thoughts on “Mike Minor”

  1. 3.39FIP 3.62xFIP 8.38K/9. He’s got plenty of potential. Whats amazing is how the Braves were able to still put Beachy in the rotation over him last year. I expect big things for both Beachy and Minor this year. A little offensive support could go a long way for those two guys.

  2. “he doesn’t really have bad control but a slight tendency to nibble.”

    Applies to most every promising Braves lefty prospect in memory: Bruce Chen, Odalis Perez, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes… (Well, Damian Moss really did have bad control.)

    Is this an organizational problem?

  3. I just wish my Vols didn’t have to play Vandy again. We are starting to get hot, but Vandy is a bad match up for us. We MIGHT even be able to get a bye in the SEC Tourney.

  4. Minor really needs an out pitch. I think he has great stuff, but you hit it on the head Mac, he can’t put batters away.

  5. “Is this an organizational problem?”

    Outside of Huddy and maybe JJ, who in the rotation doesnt do it? I think the mindset of our starters is to get ahead and then get them to chase something outside of the zone. Its probably why those pitch counts reach 100 by the 5th inning.

  6. The K rate would seem to indicate that lack of an out pitch is not the problem. I think this is more of a “trust your stuff, young man” situation.

  7. Minor’s #’s seemed to be much better after not getting tossed around between Gwinnett and Atl. He pitched musst better after keeping his spot in the rotation.

    Before the break – 33IP 38H 15BB 26K 4.59ERA 1.59WHIP
    After – 49IP 55H 15BB 51K 3.83ERA 1.42WHIP

    I dont think he lacks an out pitch either, I just think that when these young guys get ahead in the count they want the batter to chase something and they become afraid of pitching to contact.

  8. Reminds me of Glavine.

    Is it just me or does this Jeremy Lin thing seem like something out of a movie? It really could not have been scripted any better. I think the NBA has The Ghost of Frank Capra on the payroll.

  9. @11,

    I know. I like our chacnes in the rest of our games. Going to Bama will be tough, but the rest of the games are very winable. I want to win out

    If we win 4 of 5 and a tourney game or two, we might work our way on to the bubble.

    It would be nice to get a bye in the tournament.

  10. Pretty confident for one of those reactionary UT fans who was calling for Cuonzo’s head not too long ago. ;)

  11. Concerning our fantasy league:
    In order to get Dusty (the reigning champ) into the league, I had to bump the max allowed to 14 teams. That means we now have 1 space available. First come, first serve!

    Yahoo! League ID: 48145
    League name: Braves Journal Crowhoppers
    Password: chipper

    Please only join if you plan on being an active manager. There’s no money involved but the winner does receive a book from each loser.

  12. Stu,

    Looking at the schedule for the Vols, the rest of the games seem winnable with the toughest game being Vandy at home to close the season. I assume that’s what Smitty meant when he wished the Vols didn’t have to play Vandy again.

    I don’t the the Vols will win out but at Bama minus Green, Home to Ole Miss, at South Carolina, at LSU, home to Vandy is certainly managable. I think expecting 4-1 with this team peaking at the right time is reasonable, no worse than 3-2, outside shot at 5-0. Win out and there’s a good chance the Vols are the #2 seed in the SEC tourney, 4-1 probably puts them at the 4 seed and a first round bye.

    Edit: Guess I didn’t need to answer for Smitty but seems like we were on the same wavelength.

  13. 15—I don’t disagree about the Vols’ remaining schedule. They’ve given themselves a real shot. It just seemed like Smitty was thinking the VU game was coming up soon in his first post.

  14. If the Vols end up second in the SEC, Cuonzo gets COY.

    Lotta good coaches in the SEC. If the league could ever figure out how to win some early out-of-conference games, they might get some respect on Selection Sunday.

    Drives me crazy. The Big East gets twenty-seven teams in every year, twenty-six of whom lose in the first two rounds (and the remaining one wins the whole damn thing) and the Committee does the very same thing the next year.

  15. @14 – I joined the league. I don’t post here much but am a active lurker and will be a very active manager. I love Fantasy Baseball more than the others as it is a marathon and requires more knowledge than luck.

    Thanks for the invite.

  16. With my apologies to Alex, I have to say that I love the weird, satirical meta-narrative about sabermetrics on that site. I particularly like his coverage of some of the more insufferable “saberists.”

  17. I am still not 100% sold on Martin. I always thought this team had the tallent. It does seem that they are starting to execute the system better.

    My hope for this team was that they are in contention to make the tournament. They could very well get in a possition to make it.

    I would say they have a 10% chance of getting in. That is much better than the 1% they had a few weeks ago.

  18. Anybody thinking in terms of Cuonzo Martin’s job performance this year is thinking about the wrong thing. Same goes for any first-year coach, for that matter. Especially since any realistic expectation for this team this year featured the NIT, not the NCAA Tournament. Frankly, people should still not be thinking about the NCAA Tournament at this point. Can we make it if we win out? Sure. It shouldn’t be expected, though. And we’re not gonna win out. Our RPI is still over 100, for God’s sake!

  19. Case in point on the Tennessee NCAA Tournament thing (and I promise this will be my last post on this for the time being…I realize there’s a very limited number of people on here who wish to talk about Tennessee basketball):

    http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

    The RPI forecast by final record is the thing to look at here. What that says, in essence, is that even if we win out (including beating Vanderbilt), our RPI is projected to still only be 63 headed into the SEC Tournament, meaning our chances of getting in would not be great. We would certainly have an argument with the 11-5 SEC record, but I think the hill will be tougher to climb than you think, Smitty.

    Essentially…

    http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Tennessee.html

    …if you go by RPI, to have a decent chance of getting an at-large slot (because if we totally win out through the SECT, we’re automatically in, obviously), we need to either win out all the way to the SEC final or lose just to Vanderbilt between now and the SEC final. Again, a tall order. And the likelihood of it is much less than 10 percent.

  20. @29 That Simpson’s quote nails it, spike. But it’s actually that ambivalence that I like about Praiseball. There are some aspects of the culture of sabermetrics that ought to be mocked. But it needs to come from someone who understands and appreciates advanced stats, not from someone who thinks they’re useless. Also, people should make fun of Tangotiger more. Did you see this and this?

  21. Well, that sucks. He was one of my faves growing up, too. Still have an autographed ’83 Fleer card of his around here somewhere. Always seemed like one of the good guys.

  22. The other night, I watched Game 6 of the 1986 Series on one of those MLB Network’s Greatest Games shows. With Tom Verducci & Bob Costas, it included Bob Ojeda, Mookie Wilson and (amazingly) Bill Buckner.

    So watching that whole last inning, it reminded me how huge that Gary Carter AB was. Down 2 runs with 2 outs & nobody on base, he gets the rally going with a single to left that, off the bat, looks like an out. But it drops in, possibly because the LF is playing so deep. It’s a moment a ballplayer dreads, but he came up big. Then, as we know, everything gets crazy.

    I kinda remember him, like a lotta players from that era, beating up on the Braves & smiling his ass off about it. I looked it up and, while he didn’t have off-the-charts numbers (a little better than his 262/335/439 career line), he did hit 30 career HRs vs. Atlanta in 166 starts.

    I’m listening to WFAN right now & Met fan after Met fan is detailing all the great memories they have about him. A good listen & lotsa good personal stories. A lotta folks point to that WS Game 6 (and the game before where he hit 2 HRs in Fenway), so here’s that last inning, with Gary Carter in a starring role:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3UXgwqlDAo

  23. Bonne nuit number 8. you will be missed.

    Take heart Mac. you’re no where near the bottom of nine, but it’s nice to know that all it takes is a single to turn things around.

  24. His book “Night Draws Near,” about the effect of the Iraq war on the Iraqis, was achingly beautiful. He spoke Arabic, spent a lot of time traveling around the country, and earned the trust of a lot of Iraqis — not just the elites who spoke English, but at all levels of society.

  25. Just wondering if everyone is as bothered as I am about the Braves utter lack of involvement in the international market as of late. I get that the FO doesn’t go after free agents or go over slot in the draft, but the FO always seemed to be players for at least a couple of the big name Latin players. Don’t get me wrong I realize we’ve landed Salcedo and Teheran recently but seems like the last couple of years our presence in the international market is non-existent. Like Soler, young Cuban outfielder, why would we not at least be mentioned to have interest as young outfielders seem to be a need right now? OK rant over, let me know where I’m wrong.

  26. That Praiseball link is priceless. There’s few things better than the snake eating its own tail.

  27. @45 How much has the baseball card market dropped. A neighbor pocketed by 1957 Mickey Mantle card one day when I was 8.

  28. @30

    Tennessee would have to go 4-1 or 5-0 and win a game or two to get in. Even then, I acknowledge they would be a bubble team.

    I agree that the odds are poor, but they are my team and I am pulling for something crazy to happen. Situations like this is what makes sports fun.

    Terrible to hear about Gary Carter.

    @AAR,

    Anthony Shadid was the best. NPR was running many of his interviews today.

  29. Angry ‘Dores last night. Need to bottle that for the Tournament.
    ————-

    Always loved Gary Carter. Never understood the negative press he always seemed to get.

  30. Wakefield retires. I’m now officially too old to even attempt a major league career as a knuckleballer.

    But the dream of being a soft-tossing lefty lives on in the form of Jamie Moyer. Come back, Jamie!

  31. Heard ’bout this soft-tossing lefty knuckleballer in the independent Northern league. Sixty-eight years old. They brung this doctor out, bottom’a the third. Declared him dead, right on the spot.

    Still threw 6 innings of 3 run ball, though. Them soft-tossing lefty knucklers’ll throw forever.

  32. Greetings from Hollywood, Cal…

    #49

    This NY Times obit might give you an idea of why Gary Carter got some of the grief he did—some of his own teammates weren’t terribly fond of him. They viewed him as an attention hog. (I had a friend, a Cardinals fan, who always referred to him as “Senator Carter.”)

    http://tinyurl.com/7ahwbtz

    Was stuck in traffic on Santa Monica Blvd today. Was sitting at a traffic light, my mind wandering, listening to K-Roq & I noticed all these people walking over to this median & putting down flowers, pictures, album covers, etc., into this enormous shrine.

    “What the hell?” I thought. Then I looked up & realized it was the Beverly Hills Hilton. It was all for Whitney Houston.

  33. I think Chipper will feel years younger whem JH, FF, DU and MP hit like they should. I take BMac and Broun for granted.

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