Could he be the opening day starter? It seems possible, with Hudson, Jurrjens, and Hanson all questionable. He might be the best choice anyway. Beachy’s the inverse of Jurrjens, in that his 2011 ERA of 3.67 was pedestrian, but his strikeout rate of 10.7 was phenomenal — actually, it would have led the league had he qualified. His walk rate was a shade high, but nothing too drastic (and spiked by too many intentional walks), and his homers about average. It was an outstanding rookie season overshadowed by others on the same team.
The scouting book on Beachy was that he didn’t have the velocity of a top-tier starter, but no matter how hard he threw his fastball it was a devastating pitch, and he was able to throw three other pitchers effectively. There’s no reason I can see to think he can’t continue to be effective, and to build upon his success so far, except that he’s not “supposed” to. I’m excited to see what he can do next, and just hope he can stay healthy.
Oddly, he’s been a comically bad hitter (.083 career average) even though he was mostly a position player in college.
Brandon Beachy Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.
Kindle people — the Baseball Prospectus Annual is now available for download at $9.99.
Brandon Beachy is one of the best free acquisitions of talent of all time. It’s kind of insane that a guy who has only spent a couple years pitching could be this good at pitching. (Now let’s all hope that he doesn’t go the way of another position\ player-turned-starter who had a great year for the Braves, Kim Jong-Il.)
Agreed with Spike on last thread. Founders is wonderful.
Last thread re::Hanson
Apparently Hanson has gotten slower to the plate and the pause was more dramatic last year than the previous seasons. Hanson couldnt hold runners and I think that pause probably wouldve led to even more injuries. I like the fact that he and Roger are trying to make some adjustments.
It makes me nervous that he is changing his delivery. It could screw up his arm slot, his velocity, and his movement. And can he consistently repeat his new mechanics that he’s not used to at the major league level?
thanks Mac.
The thing about Beachy is that he threw so many pitches that he couldn’t go far. The Braves need some innings from their starters so they don’t wear out the bullpen by July. Some of this is a matter of experience perhaps. But they definitely need to pitch into the late innings more. Of course, it would help if the Braves scored some runs so that every inning wasn’t like the deciding game of the World Series.
I hear the Braves have an option on Kim Jong-Un.
@4 Possibly, but his old delivery was going to ruin him. He was letting people run all over him, tipping pitches and killing his arm.
Marc, you’re 100 percent right, and I meant to talk about that but forgot. It’s true of Minor as well.
@5
Like Crash Davis said, “Don’t try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls, it’s more democratic.”
I don’t have a problem with Hanson changing his motion, as long as he does it in the offseaon and not durring the season, that is how you get hurt. See Steve Avery.
Great monologue, but Crash Davis was totally wrong. Strikeouts aren’t fascist, they’re American! They’re all or nothing, they’re all about giving it your all, leaving nothing to chance, your best against the other guy’s best, and ultimately demolishing all your competition.
Ground balls are about BABIP. What’s democratic about that?
AAR,
Don’t think, it can only hurt the team.
Hah, touche.
Tommy talks to Peanut about the mechanical change:
Yeah, it sure looked like he was throwing with all arm, too. I hope he can actually throw strikes and repeat his motion with the new delivery.
It is a change they should have made when he was younger.
But would he (Hanson) have made it prior to having injury issues?
6 — The stolen bases didn’t bother me too much. (Or the pitch tipping, if that was frequently happening) He still had an excellent ERA even with them.
If he has to change his delivery to save his career, fine. But I’m still concerned with him being the same caliber of pitcher that he was before the delivery change/injury.
I’m not too concerned. Tommy and Roger know a lot more about pitching mechanics — and what will work for Tommy — than we do.
@15
True. I would think using his legs more would help his velocity
I got to the point where I really looked forward to Beachy’s starts & had visions of him winning a Game 3 or 4 in the post-season (with help from OVentbrel, of course).
Beachy averaged about 5 1/2 innings per game. JJ & TH just short of 6, Hudson close to 7. It was less stressful to watch Beachy.
Easy way to tell if you’re optimistic or pessimistic about the upcoming season: just think which of these current two-year streaks is more likely to remain intact in 2012:
A. Heyward homers in his first plate appearance.
B. Kimbrel ends the Braves’ season with a blown save.
I still want to marry Brandon Beachy.
I must be a pessimist, but that just seems so much more likely than a homer in a given PA.
20- Yea well I’d like to take Emma Stone out for a nice dinner but I don’t think either one of those things is gonna happen. Fun to dream though, right? (Don’t worry, I’m not ILoveEmmaStone I SWEAR)
Would like to see him get deeper into games. The 108-pitch, 5 and 1/3 inning start with 1 run and 6 K’s is fine but it puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen.
Can expect performance to go down as he faces more batters/game but it’s probably a trade off I would be willing to make.
Being 10 of 16 teams in runs puts a lot more on the bullpen than Beachy ever did, and a big factor in a start only lasting 108-pitch and 5 and 1/3 innings
Yeah, instead of leaving a 1-1 game with runners on base in the 6th inning, it would be nice to have a 4-1 lead once in a while.
@20 We do not want Beachy living in Bean Town
Do people think Keith Law is right about the Braves drafts? He seems to think the system is headed in the wrong direction.
There are two Braves draftees in Law’s Atlanta Top Ten Prospects list. The rest are trades or undrafted FA’s. He’s got an arguable point.
@27
I don’t think the Braves have much of a choice when it comes to drafting. With their top picks, they have to go after signable players (meaning players that fit their budget) and players that can be ML ready much quicker. When the value of prospects shot up, the price that the Braves were willing to pay for those prospects didn’t.
Not that this is huge revalation or anything, but I would really start to see some guys pitch through the 7th so that we could use an O’flarbel or Ventbrel or even on O’flarters once in a while.
The real question for the Braves is, of all the guys they’ve been drafting at slot because they refuse to go above slot, will they be organizational players and Triple-A fodder, or will they be fourth outfielders, middle relievers, utility infielders, and fifth starters?
I can live with drafts that produce major leaguers. The Keith Laws of the world will never be excited by the Tony Graffaninos of the prospect world, but if guys we draft wind up with decadelong careers in the majors, then, in my book, that’s a win for the scouting staff.
But if people like Sean Gilmartin just top out in the high minors without ever managing to stick, then I’ll join the pitchfork crowd and start badmouthing the Braves’ scouting and drafting operation.
Being 10 of 16 teams in runs puts a lot more on the bullpen than Beachy ever did, and a big factor in a start only lasting 108-pitch and 5 and 1/3 innings
Very true. As does Fredi’s nearly religious adherence to pitch counts.
Fantasy Baseball is back in full swing! I’ve recreated the league from last year but did not send an invite to last year’s manager (I didn’t clarify with any of the guys/gals if they wanted to participate the next year). Please only join if you plan to be an active manager. Last year, the winner received a sport’s book of the losers’ choice sent to the winner’s doorstep (it can be a recycled book). Let the games begin! For verification purposes, please post here if you join the league so I can know whose butts I’m going to whip this season!
Yahoo! League
League name: Braves Journal Crowhoppers
Password: Chipper
Hey Ryan,
I’d love to join, but I think that I need the league number (not the name) to do so.
Yea it asks for the ID# instead of the name.
Sorry guys…brain fart: League ID#47454
Do you have to have an invite for it? I keep getting an error saying the password is wrong and the league is not available.
As defending champion of Ryan’s league, I fully endorse it. Had a good time last year and it’s a bit of a different format from some other leagues I do, so that kept it fresh. Got a bunch of good books as the winner (already read God and Football, and Moneyball both recommended) and have more still to read though it’s tax season for me so probably won’t get to read anytime soon.
I’ll come back to defend, if I can. Ryan it gave me an error message even with the ID and password saying the league is overbooked if everyone returns from last year. Not sure how you fix that but just FYI.
Edit: Oh and I think the password is not capitalized for any others trying to join, could be wrong though.
27,
It’s extremely hard to tell. Scouting for future performance is an art of forecasting, and it is incredibly tough to predict the future. The Braves’ drafts may not have been great, but it only takes a couple of players to change that. If suddenly Gilmartin and Lipka become something special (which is not entirely inconceivable), then you grade these drafts very differently than Law is grading them now.
Everybody talked up Oakland’s huge 4 ‘ace’ draft in 1991, and look where it got them. You can’t grade these drafts today, or even tomorrow, or even a couple of years from now. You have to give them at least a decade. I’m not worried.
28,
I don’t put this on the scouting department. The scouting department is not only responsible for the draft, but also for international signings, undrafted free agents, and even players acquired in trades. In that sense, the draft is more of an anomaly in terms of their success, as they have achieved tremendous success in trades, UFA, and int’l signings recently. And again, it’s impossible to grade drafts this soon.
31,
I’d like to think that it isn’t just a penny-pinching approach. I think that the Braves have a knack for identifying talents that other teams just seem to miss, and so would rather save money on draft classes and apply those savings elsewhere (int’l signings, major league payroll, etc.). If you trust in your system (and I don’t see any indication that Atlanta doesn’t), it’s a great approach. Do what you do best and save money.
For example, if you’re Atlanta and you think that Mike Minor and Jacob Turner are going to have roughly the same expected MLB performance and outlook, are you not going to go with the cheaper one? Even if Turner is projected to be slightly better, wouldn’t you go with Minor and the extra player (such as Andrelton Simmons or Salcedo)? It comes down to the correct allocation of sources over total price paid.
Call this a conspiracy theory, but I really believe that Schuerholz made it a point to keep down draft spending in order to encourage the rule change to limit overall draft expenditures (if he hadn’t followed it religiously using his own team, I do not think his arguments for the change would have been accepted). This change, in my opinion, helps the Braves more than most other teams in the league, as other teams cannot entice players to sign at later picks for higher bonuses.
Guys, check back in an hour. It looks like I’m going to
Have to delete the league and restart.
Ok, had to restart the league (weird setting where it would only let me replace last year’s managers with a special invite to a new manager). First come, first serve:
Yahoo! league ID: 48145
Name: Braves Journal Crowhoppers
Password: Chipper
Pro Tip – the password is all lower case.
joined up
Joined as well
Smitty’s Slammers FTW
@16, @12, and @11 – yes and yes and yes.
There is literally no chance that if Tommy doesn’t modify his delivery that he’ll be pitching at 30.
Anxious to see what McDowell has done. If he fixes Hanson, he’s the MVP of the Braves organization.
Now if someone could just fix Heyward’s swing …
Chipper – whatcha got?
Joined up. I have been waiting for ryan to set up the league again, thanks! Dusty, I still owe you a book from last year. Please win again so I can send two books to you in one go.
I am drafting Beachy. Don’t you all dare to touch him.
@46 That’s if Hanson stays with the Braves for long…he is a Boras client!
Watch out, KC — I think Bethany dares to touch him.
We still have 5 spots available for our league:
Yahoo! league ID: 48145
Name: Braves Journal Crowhoppers
Password: chipper
Dusty, are you in yet?
I just joined your league, ryan c.!
@49 You should have more respect for my womanly wiles…
Eh, who am I kidding?
re: Braves’ drafts
The Braves have certainly spent less than most other teams on the draft in recent years. They’ve made this up (to some extent) by spending internationally (and doing quite well there, I might add), so it could be argued that the money not spent on going above-slot has been allocated to the international market, perhaps more effectively. There’s also the fact that the 2010 draft’s first round pick is a current starter in the big league rotation, so it’s hard to argue with that pick. Gilmartin (2011’s pick) has also gotten better reports since his professional career started than when he was in college. So there’s also some part of the draft where the Braves’ talent evaluaters have just done better than the field.
Either way, it’s a moot point with the new draft rules. I expect the Braves to have some of the best drafts of anyone given the new restrictions. And while the system isn’t particularly strong right now, there’s a lot of top-end pitching and a ridiculously good nucleus that came from teh system within the past two-three years.
There is literally no chance that if Tommy doesn’t modify his delivery that he’ll be pitching at 30.
Aye. This. Let’s look at this without the fan-colored glasses, shall we?
Tommy Hanson has a small tear in his rotator cuff. He’s attempting to redesign his delivery to pitch around the tear in his rotator cuff.
He’s meat.
Ryan C.,
Just joined (lurker mostly, here). The winner will be defeating FireFredi!.
I loathe pro hoops, but come one, this Lin business is just great.
@57 In my twenty years of watching NBA, I have never seen anything similar to what Lin has gone though…
I joined the league under the name Orr Stain, if anybody gets what I’m referencing besides Pete Orr, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Hey Ryan,
I just joined as well. Thanks for making this available to the everyone; it’s been years since I’ve been in a league.
I can tell this will be a very good league already. Dusty, please join asap and defend your title.
19th century economist Orr Stain Veblen?
League is full! Thanks to all that’s chosen to participate. Play ball!
Hopefully I have a little better showing this year. I think I finished 10th out of 12 last year, and that was with Bethany giving up not even halfway through the season.
@59, children’s author Orr Stain Scott Card?
@59- When I think of “Orr” I think of Catch-22. Hence I must assume that you meant to name your team “Orr’s Plane,” but it was hard to make yourself understood since you had crabapples in your cheeks.
Orr Stain: metaphorical term for players given Major League jobs in spite of horrible numbers year after year. Teams’ “eyes” are drawn to the player like a human’s eyes are drawn to a ketchup stain on a white shirt.
I’m highly offended by this.
I’m still laughing at Sansho’s comment at 62.
Last note to fantasy league:
Log-in to see update and please comment concerning draft date, prizes, and stat categories.
I don’t know if anybody has seen this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/
It’s an article that outlines the total productivity (measured via fWAR) of all the draft classes for each club since 2002. Atlanta is in 7th, with 70.9 WAR, 30 behind the Red Sox’s leading 100.3 WAR and 62 ahead of Seattle’s last place 8.9 (!!!) WAR (Yup, that’s right, the Mariners have received a total of 9 wins from all of their 10 draft classes since 2002).
Philly is 25th with 30 WAR.
NY is 24th with 31 WAR.
Miami is 14th with 59 WAR.
Washington is 16th with 57 WAR.
According to MLBTR, the Braves are no longer able to swing the Lisp back and forth from Gwinnett to the big club. He and Ascencio are out of options. Either they’re there on Day 1 or up for the stealthiest GM to snatch. This makes the reliever battle a little more interesting and might put the Lisp and Asencio into early Spring trade rumors.
Also, Danny Knobler thinks Jurrjens still might be traded if he has a strong spring.
Worthy of note: The Angels 5th starting spot is up for grabs. If Kendrys Morales is healthy, the Angels GM says he’s probably going to be forced to make a move. Trading matchup?
Also worthy of note, Jim Powell said the Braves strongly considered going to a 6-man rotation but scrapped the idea a few weeks ago.
@72
A six man rotation would be stupid
I don’t think we trade JJ with Hudson and Hanson not being healthy.
agree, the problem with a 6 man rotation is that it will place extra stress on the bullpen, both with weaker pitchers at the bottom of the rotation and one less man in the pen. Having said that I’d be interested to see the results of it…somewhere else.
Presumably a starter would be available on occasion for an extra inning of bullpen work here and there, since the expected workload of a six-man rotation would be only around 160-170 innings for each starter. Extra rest would also create the opportunity to use a semi-rested starter as a long man in extra-innings games, after which you could adjust the order of the rotation.
I don’t know whether it’s a good idea — but I know it would require some managerial creativity, so it almost certainly would never happen here. We do have the right sort of roster to try it — several good-to-very-good starters and no real horse a la Halladay.
Dang,
Away from my computer since yesterday, just saw the new league info update and noticed it’s already full. No biggie, been a bit busy with tax season and missed out I guess.
Good luck all.
Good (and hilarious) guesses, but my team’s name is actually a reference to one of my favorite comic books, which is called Orc Stain. I think I’ve decided to give all my teams vague allusions to comic books this year.
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/02/sec_basketball_photo_of_the_year.html
This is amazing.
Thats actually pretty funny
Remember when the Braves traded Robinson Lopez for Derrek Lee and people were pretty ticked because we traded an actual prospect for him? Well, Lopez was released by the Cubs after a complete disaster of a year in A ball. It would truly suck to love the Cubs.
#78
Hysterical. Top that, Dukies.
@80, no, I don’t remember that anyone was particularly ticked at all about giving up Lopez.
http://bravesjournal.us/?p=5998#comments
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/4873/braves-pay-reasonable-price-for-cubs-lee
The giant face trend has my full approval. Love me some non sequitur mayhem.
I remember Stu and AAR having pretty immediate disapproval of the trade because of Lopez. But then like 10 minutes later Stu approved because of Lee’s press conference.
http://bravesjournal.us/?p=5993#comment-316240
Dusty,
One of our players from last year forgot to send you a book. If you could, email me your address. My email address: cothrjr at hotmail dot com
84—That sounds exactly like something I would do.
Great news for you all that live in the city.
http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/braves-join-new-trend-1350294.html
So, I disapproved of the trade because of Lopez, but I also wrote this:
Tee Martin is joining that other Tennessee hero – Lane Kiffin – at the University of Spoiled Children.
New post!