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Hopefully it won’t rain game thread: May 18, Rockies at Braves

Posted by Mac Thomason | May 18, 2009 | Game Threads 2010 | 152

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PreviousSunday game thread: May 17, D-Backs at Braves
NextRockies 5, Braves 1

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Mac Thomason

Mac Thomason

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152 Comments

  1. Blind Hog
    Blind Hog on May 18, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Not to be contrarian (that’s Mac’s job), but can we send Frenchy down for more than three days? He does have options left, doesn’t he?

  2. Tiger224
    Tiger224 on May 18, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    AJC reports that Tony Armas Jr is on the team at Gwinnett. Interesting.

    Paging the Braves offense. Paging the Braves offense. Please report to Turner Field. Please report to Turner Field. Thank you.

  3. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 2:44 pm

    If I were running Baseball Prospectus, and I started a hockey website, I would have called it “Puck Frospectus”. Missed opportunity there.

  4. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Note from the plus/minus stats… Early in the year, the Braves were having some problems in the infield, but they seem to be corrected now, and Yunel, KJ, and Kotchman are all in the top ten where they spent last season. But interestingly, Infante (as a shortstop) and Prado (as a third baseman) show up, per inning, as even better than Yunel. Probably sample size. The outfielders are all awful, which is not sample size. Francoeur is below par at 22nd, for those who seem to think that his glove could somehow outweigh his termite-gnawed bat.

  5. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    @1: I’m quite certain he does have options… but I’m less certain that a stint in the minors would help at this point. My best guess is that Jeff would go down and rake against ML washups… because he’s quite capable of doing this… which would only reinforce the idea that he doesn’t need to make the constant adjustments to his swing that he NEEDS to make.

    I’m also much less certain that we have anyone that could replace him and produce at the Major League level… but I’ve said enough on that before, and I’ve got to run for now.

  6. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    At least if he was in the minors, he wouldn’t be stinking up the joint in the majors. It is not that hard to find someone who can play right field and post a .320 OBP — which would be 52 points over what we’re getting. Brandon Jones certainly could do better than that.

  7. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Okay, I know I said I was leaving… but first off, does anyone know a link to these plus/minus numbers outside of a gated community?

    @6: Mac? “Certainly”? I put these numbers together a week or so ago, so maybe Brandon’s gone on a tear that I missed, but here was his combined career line versus RHP between the AAA and ML levels as of 5/10, (compiled in 647 PA, 503 in AAA, 144 with ATL, all since his promotion to AAA in ’07): .268/.346/.403… His walk rate in AAA is 10.8%, and in his Major League career is only 6.6%. Assuming he gets 7 hits in the 28 AB that you could expect he wouldn’t walk during this sample size, adjusted to the majors, his OBP drops to .317.

    There may come a time when a gamble on Brandon Jones makes sense, but that’s all it will be: a gamble, and not even a very good one at that.

  8. JC
    JC on May 18, 2009 at 3:08 pm

    Smells like Backlasher in here.

  9. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:08 pm

    Leaving aside that Jones’ OBP this year is over .400, and that his career minor league OBP is .363… .320 is not very good. It’s bad. It’s just that Francoeur is so bad that .320 is a huge boost.

  10. Weldon
    Weldon on May 18, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    Brandon Jones would be better than Francoeur, but he was mediocre in his cup of coffee last year and he still hasn’t hit a homer at AAA this year.

  11. Jorgbacca
    Jorgbacca on May 18, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    So it looks like the best argument that Francouer’s biggest supporter can muster is that Francouer’s replacement would surely suck just as bad so why bother.

  12. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    Right… you got me Jorgbacca… that is the best argument I could possibly muster… and I am clearly his biggest supporter. Even if that was the best argument I could muster, that is a pretty damning argument… if the replacement wouldn’t be any better than don’t you stick with the devil that you know?

    If you want a more exhaustive analysis of why I think it is worth sticking with Francoeur you can check the end of the last thread.

    @9: And Jeff’s career Minor League SLUG% is .480… does any of that even matter though? Do we really think that Brandon will walk in more than 10% of his PA at the Major League level? I’ll admit .320 is probably better than Francoeur is gonna give you on a regular basis, but Brandon doesn’t have the defense, durability, or experience that Jeff has… not to mention he’s never put up power or contact numbers like Jeff has at the Major League level (Brandon’s only put up anything close to similar numbers in AA.) I think that more than offsets a bump in OBP, especially for this team given that our problems haven’t been getting runners on, but driving them in.

    Like I said, it’s a gamble… and one I don’t think is worth making yet.

  13. Blind Hog
    Blind Hog on May 18, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    From where I sit, the Braves are only three players from being a lock for being a reborn dynasty. Those players are Albert Pujols, Evan Longorria (sp?) and Zack Greinke (lkewise sp?).

    Of course, addition by subtraction could work to if we lose the French Tickler.

  14. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:26 pm

    If this is a “bump”, Lookout Mountain is a “protuberance”.

  15. Marc Schneider
    Marc Schneider on May 18, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    @12,

    Gadfly,

    It’s a gamble for a team struggling to score runs to replace its incompetent right fielder even for a time? It’s not as if you couldn’t bring him back up if somehow Jones was worse. Unless you think that sending Jeffy to the minors would hurt his feelings. The Braves cannot make the playoffs with the offense producing as it is now. So, how much of a gamble is it? And, we are now valuing Jeff’s “experience?” Experience at what, sucking? That’s like valuing the French Army in WW II because of its experience in surrendering.

  16. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    Simple new poll.

    What could we possibly lose from DeJeffication? He’s the worst everyday player in baseball, or close to it, and he has no positives whatsoever except a nice arm, which is about thirtieth on the list of things you’d want in a baseball player. He doesn’t get on base, he has no power, he can’t run, and his range is poor, in an offensive position.

  17. Blind Hog
    Blind Hog on May 18, 2009 at 3:33 pm

    Is water wet? Does a bear, you know?

  18. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Here is the list of National Leaguers with worse offensive winning percentages than Francoeur:

    Jason Kendall
    Rafael Furcal
    Khalil Greene
    Jimmy Rollins
    Conor Jackson
    Garrett Atkins
    Chris Young
    Geovany Soto
    Brian Giles

    Let’s see… We have two catchers and three shortstops, leaving four outfielders/corner players. Of those four, two have been benched, and one plays for the Padres, who are already nine and a half out, and is 38 years old. So that leaves Garrett Atkins as the only one who’s really comparable in that the Rockies (hopefully!) will keep sending him out there. Note that nobody else is trying to compete with a fricking right fielder hitting like this. If you’re playing outfield and you hit like Jeff Francoeur, your team isn’t trying to win. The Mets benched Church, who is hitting far better than Jeffy.

  19. Ethan
    Ethan on May 18, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    Should have traded Jeffy this offseason for whatever we could have gotten. If he keeps this up he’ll simply be DFA’ed…

    @18

    What’s depressing is how many of those guys are on my fantasy team…

  20. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    We have ten votes so far. Nine are “yes” and one is Gadfly.

  21. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    Damnit, I was trying to get out of here… but then people who I actually respect made thoughtful responses…

    @14: Francoeur’s career OBP is .309, since 2007 (the same window as Brandon Jones’) it’s .312… Obviously from .272 to .317 is a big move, but from .309 or .312 to .317 isn’t even a mole hill.

    @15: As I’ve said before, I think that sending Jeff to AAA would be counter-productive… because I think he’d destroy AAA pitching, like he did AA pitching over a weekend last year, and then convince himself that his swing is just fine. If you wanted to bring up Brandon and give him some playing time, I wouldn’t object, but I think Jeff needs to figure out his struggles on the ML level, or he’ll never get through them.

    As for Jeff’s experience… how about the experience of playing in 585 Major League games… leading the team in RBIs for a full season… playing in Major League postseason games… playing in every ballpark in the National League… Hitting home runs off of pitchers like Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Andy Pettite, etc… He’s done quite a bit that doesn’t fall under the umbrella of “suck.”

  22. Tiger224
    Tiger224 on May 18, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    What if we had left Frenchy at AAA for the rest of the season last year…when Wren sent him down for a weekend.

    Would it have done any good? Beats me.

    But it couldn’t have really done any worse. And who knows…maybe we would’ve found a new piece to the puzzle in LF.

  23. Stu
    Stu on May 18, 2009 at 3:46 pm

    Man, Francoeur really sucks.

  24. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    And yes, I can see your votes if I so desire, though I don’t normally.

  25. JC
    JC on May 18, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    I posted this the other day at the end of a thread.

    Bill James Online Skill Assessment of Jeffy.

    Skill: Percentile among RF

    Power: 26th percentile
    Running: 24th
    Fielding:31st
    Average: 26th
    Plate Discipline: 2nd

  26. Frank
    Frank on May 18, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    wow–there’s actually someone with worse plate discipline–vlad guerrero? [edit–actually with 30ish RF the 2nd percentile probably means no RF has worse plate discipline]

    re 18–it’s early etc. but I remain glad we didn’t sign Furcal–I was happy and remain happy that he weaseled out–let the Dodgers pay him $30m

  27. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    Those are percentiles; there should be thirty regular rightfielders, but obviously there’s job-sharing involved. A percentile of 2 would be the worst in baseball. I would guess there’s one major league outfielder worse, or as bad. Meanwhile, he’s just in the bottom third of everything else, so if he could just work on the plate discipline he’d merely be bad.

  28. Marc Schneider
    Marc Schneider on May 18, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    @21,

    Wow! Playing in every major league ballpark? Playing in postseason games? Hitting a few home runs off a few good pitchers? That’s your standard for Francouer’s accomplishments? I understand Jeff is also able to put on his jock strap without assistance.

    Horatio Ramirez got Barry Bonds OUT at least once. He did not give up a run every inning. He struck out good hitters. He did not get a line drive smashing him in the mouth.

    Keith Lockhart fielded ground balls and did not hit Keith Olbermann’s mother with a throw.

  29. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Francoeur’s OBP is currently .272. If he manages to last out the season like this — and there is no evidence that he won’t — it would be the worst by a major league outfielder since Coors Field came into the league.

    SEASON
    1993-2008
    OF

    OBA YEAR OBA
    1 Thin Brian Hunter 1999 .280
    2 Gerald Williams 1997 .282
    3 Corey Patterson 2002 .284
    4 Doug Glanville 2001 .285
    5 Vince Coleman 1994 .285
    6 Juan Encarnacion 1999 .287
    7 Ruben Sierra 1993 .288
    8 Michael Bourn 2008 .288
    9 Marquis Grissom 2000 .288
    10 Jeff Francoeur 2006 .293

    In fact, it would be among the worst since they lowered the mound:

    SEASON
    1969-2008
    OF

    OBA YEAR OBA
    1 Cory Snyder 1989 .251
    2 Tony Armas 1983 .254
    3 Cito Gaston 1971 .264
    4 Paul Blair 1972 .267
    5 Del Unser 1976 .269
    6 Jeffrey Leonard 1985 .272
    7 Mookie Wilson 1989 .273
    8 Dave May 1974 .273
    9 Cory Snyder 1987 .273
    10 Tony Armas 1982 .275

    Heck, maybe if he goes down to Gwinnett, Tony Jr. can hook Jeff up with his old man and they can compare notes. Tony Sr. at least actually hit homers and played defense, unlike Jeffy, who just is supposed to do those things.

  30. oldtimer?
    oldtimer? on May 18, 2009 at 4:10 pm

    Gadfly, why not try somebody else, what do we have to lose, he doesn’t get it done.
    Can Brandon be worse? possibly, could he better, possibly, so why not find out, it in no way can hurt.

    I also send him to the minors until he looks like a he has truly gotten better, which will be never.

  31. Smitty
    Smitty on May 18, 2009 at 4:12 pm

    Hmmm Marc,

    I think we should get Horatio Ramirez and put him in right.

  32. Tiger224
    Tiger224 on May 18, 2009 at 4:12 pm

    “thin Brian Hunter”

    LOL…nice, Mac.

    Not to be confused with the ultimate platoon: Chubby Brian Hunter and Crazy Legs Sid Bream!

  33. spike (back in the ATL)
    spike (back in the ATL) on May 18, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    I think he’d destroy AAA pitching

    Never saw that coming.

  34. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 4:20 pm

    It’s the Gadfly Principle. You’ve heard of the Peter Principle, right? Well, the Gadfly Principle is a subset of that, saying not only that people are promoted to the level of their incompetence, it’s actually a moral imperative to leave them at that level no matter what the evidence.

  35. Joshua
    Joshua on May 18, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    WOW! This has got to turn out as the most lop-sided poll in history. And before I forget …Frenchy SUCKS!!!

  36. Joshua
    Joshua on May 18, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    @34 – Nice. Make it so. Add it to the Glossary.

  37. c. shorter
    c. shorter on May 18, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    34 — as evidenced by a certain position in my department at school. Incredibly frustrating.

  38. Dix
    Dix on May 18, 2009 at 4:41 pm

    If Jeffy goes to AAA and mashes the pitching there, then we have further decisions to make. However, if he goes to AAA and sucks, well then there’s nothing left to consider as far as he is concerned. The only decisions at that point revolve around who else to stick in RF.

    I’m in favor of obtaining a definitive resolution, and one can be had by sending him down. If he can’t hit in the minors, he won’t hit in the majors. We already know he can’t hit in the majors, but unfortunately, some people in important decision-making positions think there is still a chance he may be capable of it. A failed stint in the minors would confirm whether he’s definitely not capable, or still possibly capable.

  39. JoeCraigMcMurtry
    JoeCraigMcMurtry on May 18, 2009 at 4:46 pm

    Ok Superfly, given that your constant assertion that Francouer would destroy AAA pitching relies on zero evidence, I will issue yet another proclamation that will eventually prove true, just as I told you on April 15 that Frenchy would end up this year with an OPS of less than .750 (I actually didn’t think it was possible for him to be worse than last year), and just as I told you that he would not finish in the top 5 on the team in RP/G (time for an update!). Frenchy will in fact spend years toiling in AAA (thankfully for different organizations), and he will never post an OBP of better than .350 or OPS over .800.

  40. oldtimer?
    oldtimer? on May 18, 2009 at 4:47 pm

    Man, i haven’t seen a game since friday, i can’t wait for tonight.
    We can get Dye for scrap if we are willing to pay, and its only the remainder of his salary, we should have the funds available, it could put us over the top and into a true playoff contender.

  41. Seat Painter
    Seat Painter on May 18, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    So 5% of 39 people say Frenchy doesn’t suck. One is Gadfly, who is the other?

  42. sdp
    sdp on May 18, 2009 at 5:13 pm

    1. Johnson, 2B
    2. Escobar, SS
    3. Jones, 3B
    4. Anderson, LF
    5. McCann, C
    6. Kotchman, 1B
    7. Francoeur, RF
    8. Schafer, CF
    9. Lowe, RHP

  43. Jeff K
    Jeff K on May 18, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    Wow, just checked in on the string and it’s a Frenchy/Gadfly bloodbath in here. Hang in there, Gadfly! I’ve (mostly) enjoyed the fact that you have played the role of defense counsel to the accused even as the evidence of guilt mounted. Don’t let a guilty verdict, when it comes, get you down.

  44. sdp
    sdp on May 18, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    Oh, hey, everybody, look!

    http://blog.delta.com/2009/05/14/jeffs-new-day-job-at-hartsfield/

  45. Ron E.
    Ron E. on May 18, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    Francoeur sucks. Also Diaz. And Anderson. And Schafer. The Braves could call up Jones and pick up 2 other outfielders off the free agent scrap heap and get a lot more production than they are getting from the current bunch and none of the 3 replacements would even have to be very good.

  46. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    Tragedy struck when Snitker was allowed to direct the planes to the gate.

  47. ububba
    ububba on May 18, 2009 at 5:29 pm

    Maybe Frenchy should have a job that allows him to wear his name on the front of his shirt instead of the back.

  48. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 5:44 pm

    Lunch time… so I’m back…

    @30: Like you said Brandon could be better, or he could be worse. The same is also true of Jeff, however. Working for Jeff he actually was better for the first month of the season, and exceptionally better for the first couple weeks… not to mention 2007. I’m fine with Brandon getting playing time, but you need a roster spot, and I think sending Jeff to AAA would be counterproductive… You’ll never be able to tell if he’s turned it around in AAA, because it’s AAA… just like he dominated AA for a weekend last year, he’ll dominate AAA pitching, which won’t force Jeff to make the alterations he needed to.

    @39: You want an update on RP/G, here ya go: Jeff is currently fourth, with 34 RP in 36 Games. Yunel is 1st with 36 in 33, Chipper is 2nd with 29 in 29, and Brian McCann is third with 20 in 21. Fifth is Matt Diaz with 20 in 22… as for OPS, Jeff hasn’t finished the year yet, so I don’t think you can count either of those predictions as wins just yet.

    @43: Haha, thanks for the support. (?) I don’t get too down based on the lack of people agreeing with me around here… because… after all Bobby and Frank appear to be on the same page as me, and I’ll take that company over this. (There is a point when I’ll make a more definite stance on Jeff’s future, ’05-’07 earned only so much good will, but that point has not arrived yet.)

  49. oldtimer?
    oldtimer? on May 18, 2009 at 5:52 pm

    Prison jumpsuits have the names on the front now.
    it would read like

    Francouer
    252-272-642

  50. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    You know, what really annoys me is how you keep claiming that 2006-07 Francoeur was a good player. In 2006, Francoeur’s OWP was .400. This was 54th among 57 qualifying outfielders. In 2007, it was .516, a vast improvement, but still only 39th among 57. So at his best, Francoeur was in the bottom third of major league outfielders. In 2007, you could say that he was a promising player who had seemingly advanced from a disappointing 2006, and who if he progressed normally projected to be a useful regular. Maybe he’d make a jump and be a star.

    But right now, you have three full seasons and a third of another since his callup. In two of those full seasons and in the part-season, he has been among the worst outfielders in the game. This is a fact. And you continue to ignore it.

  51. Frank
    Frank on May 18, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    I wouldn’t be too sure about ole Jeffy tearing up AAA–if memory serves, Lil’ Johnny S (remember him?) had a higher obp than Jeffy at Rome in 2003. Jeffy was much better than Lil’ J in slg pct.

  52. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 5:57 pm

    @28: And I would give Horacio Ramirez a longer look before I sent him down to the minors to make room for some LHP that had near identical numbers as HoRam over the last three years in AAA.

    That wasn’t the standard to Jeff’s accomplishments… I’ve gone in detail on that enough… I was simply pointing out all the situations where Jeff has succeeded, or failed, that Brandon hasn’t even experienced…

  53. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:04 pm

    Atkins not playing, so I guess Francoeur is the worst player unbenched.

  54. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    @51: My assumption that Jeff would tear it up in AAA is based on his weekend in AA last year, as well as my recent hypothesis that Jeff handles poor-average ML pitching, but ends up being dominated by average-great MLB pitching. It really is just a guess, but even if he doesn’t tear up AAA I don’t see that as the environment for him to figure out how to hit good pitching.

  55. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:19 pm

    Apparently, Jason Marquis has joined Frankie Goes To Hollywood.

  56. sdp
    sdp on May 18, 2009 at 6:19 pm

    Wow. Chip Caray called Tom Glavine an “ace.”

  57. Dan
    Dan on May 18, 2009 at 6:21 pm

    According to the Francoeur-fan brain trust on DOB’s blog; he’s the most valuable player on the team right now because he currently leads the team in RBIs.

    Seriously.

  58. JC
    JC on May 18, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    Are we playing the Diamondbacks? Because Jim won’t stop talking about AJ Hinch. Those are yesterday’s notes, throw them away.

  59. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    ACHE sucks too. In fact, he sucks almost precisely as much as Francoeur, but wasn’t on that list because he hasn’t played enough.

  60. spike (back in the ATL)
    spike (back in the ATL) on May 18, 2009 at 6:27 pm

    “Runs Produced” is not a terribly useful stat to me, but you know what? if you take RP and subtract outs/7 you get Runs Created…Jeffy is at 3.0/Game…tied for 12th on the team…league average is 5.1. So while he may be a “Run Producer” of a sort,that statistic doesn’t gauge the elephant in the room – the Runs Not Produced, which is why poor Jeffy is an anvil around the neck of this offense.

  61. NickC
    NickC on May 18, 2009 at 6:28 pm

    Was he slowing down as he approached first there?

  62. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:29 pm

    Nah, I think he’s just that slow. Though it’s possible that he was tired from running sixty whole feet.

  63. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 6:29 pm

    @50: I don’t find OWP terribly compelling, but it does give some measure of the completeness of a player’s batting abilities. A completeness that Francoeur undoubtedly lacks. For me, however, any statistic that assumes an entire lineup made up of multiple incarnations of a single player sounds pretty open to error. The fact that there are so many different formulas doesn’t help either… Baseball Reference, for one, has different numbers than the ones you use (.404, .524,) but that’s a minor discrepancy. OWP also does not even attempt to give the entire story, as it doesn’t take into account defensive production… as I’ve said before even if we only consider Jeff’s offensive production in ’07 to be average, his whole year was certainly above average due to his defense and durability. Let’s put that aside for now though.

    To illustrate the problems OWP can encounter, I’ll refer you to the statistical analysis I posted on the previous thread, which showed quite extensively that Jeff’s 2007 run production, that is actual runs he put on the board not a simulation estimating what he would if he was playing with ghost runners, was at least equal to, and likely greater than Garrett Atkins’ production in the same year. So what does OWP say about these two players? As I said Baseball Reference lists Jeff at .524… Garrett Atkins is listed at .612.

    2006, on the other hand, I have never been exceptionally impressed with, and certainly never called good. I have said that from ’05-’07 Jeff was good, and I’ll stand by that, but I believe you’re mistaken if you think I included ’06 standing alone as a good year… though again, all things considered, he was a 22 year-old playing everyday in the Majors, which sounds pretty good compared to me.

    I’d love to get further into this, but sadly I must get back to work… I’ll check back in around the end of today’s game if you need any further clarification, or if you have any questions concerning the statistical analysis from the previous thread.

  64. Dan
    Dan on May 18, 2009 at 6:32 pm

    Here is the e-mail:

    braves@peachtreetv.com

    I wonder if they’ll select my stupid question (they pick one every time that I’ve seen.)

  65. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 6:34 pm

    @60: Jeff’s run production hasn’t been terribly exciting this year, I only brought it up because of JoeCraig’s assertion that Jeff clearly wasn’t going to be in the Top 5 on the team. I talk about RC and its failings above…

    Further, as much as outs do usually hurt a team, getting on base does not always help… for me RP measures the actual runs produced and not some amalgamation fraught with assumptions (however, statistically true these assumptions tend to be in the wider picture, they are still assumptions.) The amalgamation is likely going to be a better predictor of future performance, but the actual base physical counting is a better arbiter of real past success.

    Now back to work… GO BRAVES!

  66. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:35 pm

    I use OWP because it’s readily available; any reasonable sophisticated system will say the same thing: that Francoeur was one of the worst players in baseball in 2006 and 2008 and so far in 2009, and below-average in 2007.

    And while I don’t disagree that there are problems with any all-in-one stat, Mr. Runs Produced, there is a simple fact here: you cannot be a valuable offensive player in the current game with an on-base percentage of .309. It’s just not possible. And that .309 drastically overrates Francoeur, since he’s been well below that in two of his three full seasons, and is charting undiscovered low OBPdom this year.

  67. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:36 pm

    Joe wants Francoeur to hit with “more of a right-field approach”. In other words: drink!

  68. Gadfly
    Gadfly on May 18, 2009 at 6:38 pm

    @66: So how do you disregard/explain the analysis I posted on the previous thread? Is that not a reasonably sophisticated system? Does it not judge actual outcomes?

    If Francoeur produced actual runs better than Garrett why is Garrett’s OWP 88 points higher? Is there maybe something that sophisticated systems are missing?

    As I said, I’ll be off-site for a few hours, but I’ll check back in later.

  69. spike (back in the ATL)
    spike (back in the ATL) on May 18, 2009 at 6:40 pm

    I have no idea what Gadfly does for a living – but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was involved with this

  70. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:41 pm

    Francoeur has “produced” more runs because he has (a) played in virtually every game and (b) normally has hit directly behind Chipper and McCann, so the majority of the time he comes up someone is on base. Your argument was only “sophisticated” in the sense of “baroque”.

    Francoeur drives, or drove, in runs because he had a fairly high batting averages and a lot of RBI opportunities. He barely scores any runs, because he is never on base. He makes a lot of outs. He hurts the team.

  71. spike (back in the ATL)
    spike (back in the ATL) on May 18, 2009 at 6:44 pm

    mmm…..rococo puffs!

  72. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 6:45 pm

    Oh, and great defense there from Jeffy. Good thing we won’t lose that oh-so-valuable arm.

  73. NickC
    NickC on May 18, 2009 at 6:49 pm

    Remember kids, the game will soon be all about speed.

  74. rehabreject
    rehabreject on May 18, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    I would love to go drinking with Gadfly the day that Francoeur gets traded to KC.

  75. Bethany
    Bethany on May 18, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    My god Schafer makes me nervous out there.

    And yeah, Frenchy’s rocket arm just cost us a run.

  76. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 6:54 pm

    I realize this is a little late in the conversation, but I wanted to point out that four (4) of the players on Mac’s list of players with offensive winning percentages worse than Frenchy are on my fantasy team.

  77. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 7:01 pm

    That was nice play by KJ to his right.

  78. Bethany
    Bethany on May 18, 2009 at 7:04 pm

    I also want to point out that the first to third play show that maybe people aren’t as terrified of Jeff’s arm as some people seem to think.

  79. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:05 pm

    Delgado has the same hip thing A-Rod did and will need surgery.

  80. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:07 pm

    Will Ferrell’s Harry Caray was better, Chip. But then, he can probably do lots of things better than you.

  81. c.shorter
    c.shorter on May 18, 2009 at 7:08 pm

    46 — Mac, that is funny stuff.

  82. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:09 pm

    God, they’re so stupid. The reason Helton’s stats are so good is because he played in Coors Field. He has 314 career homers — 258 at home, and 56 on the road.

  83. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    Doesn’t Chip even watch the players? You could tell that was foul immediately just by watching McCann.

  84. ryan c
    ryan c on May 18, 2009 at 7:17 pm

    we need at least 2 runs here, because we know francoeur is incompetent.

  85. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:20 pm

    I am getting sick of this GIDP garbage.

  86. Dan
    Dan on May 18, 2009 at 7:21 pm

    “After a hot May, Francoeur is struggling in May.”

    -Joe Simpson

  87. ryan c
    ryan c on May 18, 2009 at 7:22 pm

    francoeur has the power of a lemur.

  88. Mike
    Mike on May 18, 2009 at 7:22 pm

    We can screw up bases loaded, nobody out situations better than anyone else in baseball. Sigh.

  89. Catz
    Catz on May 18, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    I’m surprised we even managed one run that inning. I was certainly expecting a strikeout from kotchman

  90. rehabreject
    rehabreject on May 18, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    can someone explain why Krotchrocket doesn’t get an RBI on that GIDP… or is Powell wrong?

  91. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    Could be worse, Mac. We could still have John Sterling.

  92. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    You don’t get an RBI on a GIDP. Them’s the rules.

  93. rehabreject
    rehabreject on May 18, 2009 at 7:26 pm

    How about this one then…. Runner on second and third, 0 out….sac fly to CF. Runner from third scores, but the runner going from second to third is thrown out.

  94. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    You’d get one then, and probably a sac fly. I think. It’s just the GIDP. The reasons are lost to history, but probably come down to not wanting to reward someone who made two outs. In the fly ball situation, the runner made the out; he didn’t have to take off.

  95. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:29 pm

    @93: He gets the RBI, because the runner thrown out between second and third is out because of a baserunning gaffe, not because of the the hitter’s shortcoming. In other words, Yunel’s idiocy wouldn’t prevent a Chipper RBI.

  96. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    Anderson is still totally disinterested out there.

  97. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    But as Bobby will remind us, he’s a glider.

  98. drew
    drew on May 18, 2009 at 7:38 pm

    It seems to me nearly impossible to score runs with our lineup as presently formulated.

  99. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:39 pm

    Argh.

  100. oldtimer?
    oldtimer? on May 18, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    I didnt mind that attempt.

  101. Mike
    Mike on May 18, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    Double to Yunel deflected by ACHE according to Gameday… what happened? Stooge moment in the outfield?

  102. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    This lineup leaves no margin for error, and that means to win, you have to do the little things right … which as we know, this team does not.

  103. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    Fowler reached on a bloop that dropped in front of Anderson, and his sliding to get it allowed Folwer to reach 2B.

    What a joke of a run. >_<

  104. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    It was a flare behind short. Most outfielders make the catch. ACHE tipped it away and turned it into a double.

  105. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    @101: Anderson glided — or maybe it’s “glid” — and couldn’t get to a ball that was his.

  106. Coop
    Coop on May 18, 2009 at 7:45 pm

    Switched to radio. Couldn’t watch ACHE or listen to Chip. Both Rockies runs were courtesy of our corner outfielders.

  107. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:46 pm

    Let’s not ignore how well Yunel is playing. Other than on the bases.

    Jesus Christ, another double play.

  108. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 7:47 pm

    Anderson is almost as bad as Francoeur.

  109. drew
    drew on May 18, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    In case you were wondering, here’s the page of double-play records. We still have a shot tonight at tying the all-time mark:

    http://www.baseball-almanac.com/rb_gidp2.shtml

  110. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    Yunel entered play hitting .339 /.420/.492 in May; that would be good for an outfielder. Even one in a real outfield.

  111. Mike
    Mike on May 18, 2009 at 7:50 pm

    Thanks guys. The Glide indeed.

    Marquis is getting the ground ball whenever he wants it tonight… scattering eight baserunners across six innings with four double-play balls.

  112. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 7:53 pm

    Chip Caray + Jack Buck imitation = EPIC FAIL

  113. csg
    csg on May 18, 2009 at 7:54 pm

    Jeff Francoeur + Garret Anderson = EPIC FAIL

    are they as bad as Mondesi and Jordan

  114. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    Jeff Francoeur + Garret Anderson = Satan’s minions

  115. csg
    csg on May 18, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    Lowe pitches 7IP 3H 2ER and will get a L, unbelievable

  116. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    This is stupid. What a great game pitching by Lowe. And we’re down. Yeesh.

  117. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 7:58 pm

    Idiotic fan question.

  118. Ethan
    Ethan on May 18, 2009 at 7:58 pm

    Has ACHE ever made an outfield play?

    mraver,

    I’m the same way with my fantasy team. It’s also embarrassing how highly I drafted Soto

    @70: Very well put.

    Also, with reference to Helton, I would go out on a limb and say that if Sean Casey had played his entire career at Coors, his offensive numbers would be comparable to Helton’s

    Casey’s career splits vs. Colorado in 200+ AB’s: .357/.449/.600

  119. csg
    csg on May 18, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    5 pitches that inning?

  120. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    How low can Francoeur go?

  121. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:07 pm

    Anderson got to that one! Yay!

  122. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    Just over 15,000 at the stadium tonight. Is this a record low?

  123. ububba
    ububba on May 18, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    C’mon, fellas…

  124. sdp
    sdp on May 18, 2009 at 8:10 pm

    I don’t know how long the Braves can maintain a ~$100MM payroll with only 15k showing up to the stadium.

  125. drew
    drew on May 18, 2009 at 8:10 pm

    Ugh. How on earth did we not knock Marquis out earlier? Why can’t we take pitches when it’s obvious he’s reeling and the other team is desperate not to go to its pen? At this rate they’ll all get a night off, ugh.

  126. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 8:12 pm

    KJ just missed it.

  127. kc
    kc on May 18, 2009 at 8:12 pm

    Because our offense sucks. It’s simple as that.

    sdp, because 1) our payroll is not at 100M, and 2) it’s not summer yet…

  128. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    That lucky SOB. That was three balls that got scorched this inning.

    Please, please. Let’s not lose to Jason Marquis today.

  129. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:16 pm

    Why does Cox bring in Infante defensively? Save one lineup spot on the off-chance we bring up 8 guys next inning and manage to not win the game? Or do we just think Infante is better defensively than KJ?

  130. Dan
    Dan on May 18, 2009 at 8:17 pm

    Why is it the Braves always give up runs in the top of the ninth when they’re trailing by one? To take out the mystery?

  131. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    O’Flaherty never striking anybody out concerns me.

  132. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 8:22 pm

    At least he doesn’t deliver bases-loaded walks.

  133. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:22 pm

    Fine bullpen management here, IMO.

    And on the season, O’Flaherty’s K-rate is 14% while his BB rate is 2%. I’ll take that any day of the week.

  134. Stu
    Stu on May 18, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    Freaking Yunel.

  135. rehabreject
    rehabreject on May 18, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    I love the young hip music these geezers play when coming back from commercial on the radio…. RATM “Bulls on Parade” … rally round the family! pocket full of shells!!

  136. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 8:25 pm

    Back to the crappy side of .500.

  137. Tony
    Tony on May 18, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    Brilliant moves BC…

  138. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    Stop bringing Moylan in with runners on base already.

  139. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    To Cox, intensive statistical analysis involves asking, “Is he a lefty or a righty?”

  140. braves14
    braves14 on May 18, 2009 at 8:30 pm

    This is depressing.

  141. Stu
    Stu on May 18, 2009 at 8:33 pm

    Chipper’s focus has been spectacular since calling that team meeting.

  142. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 8:33 pm

    As Larry Eustachy once said at a college party, “My team sucks.”

  143. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:34 pm

    What a horrible half-inning.

  144. mraver
    mraver on May 18, 2009 at 8:37 pm

    Oh, wait, I get it. We just needed to get Atkins up so that he can get out and screw my fantasy team (KJ, Kotchman) just a little more.

  145. ryan c
    ryan c on May 18, 2009 at 8:40 pm

    cue chief….

  146. Tony
    Tony on May 18, 2009 at 8:41 pm

    Well another wasted Derrick Lowe start.

  147. ububba
    ububba on May 18, 2009 at 8:42 pm

    Well, that was no fun.

  148. Our New Insect Overlords
    Our New Insect Overlords on May 18, 2009 at 8:43 pm

    We get over .500, and then play perhaps the worst 18 innings of the year — now outscored 17-1 since Friday night. I’m sick of the lethargy, sick of the excuses, sick of doing the same crap every night hoping something might change. Unfortunately, it takes something like 19 consecutive games without a win to spur any kind of change in the lineup because everyone is considered to be “close” or “on the verge.” The only thing we’re on the verge of is another 90-loss season — and more falling attendance because this team is crap at home with indifference on the diamond and in the stands creating an atmosphere that is toxic to success. I can hardly blame people for not turning out on a cool Monday night to watch this tedium. Bobby, Frank — if we’re going to go down, let’s go down with enthusiasm, hustle and players who are improving or otherwise have upside … not has-beens like Anderson and never-will-bes like Francoeur.

  149. ric flair
    ric flair on May 18, 2009 at 8:45 pm

    Thanks for playing like s### on my birthday!!

  150. Mac Thomason
    Mac Thomason on May 18, 2009 at 8:45 pm

    Recap is up.

  151. Tad
    Tad on May 18, 2009 at 8:47 pm

    I cant believe this awful team is just one game under 500 … pitiful offense production .. FIRE PENDLETON !! FIRE SOMEBODY PLEASE !! Weak defensively in LF, 3B , 2b … no power at all from anybody !!!!! Unbelievable …. lowe is saying ‘what was I thinking ??’ didnt know the offense was this dang bad !!! Braves will probabaly just let year play out and hope young guys get here quick and dont regree like Shaefer … immediate future looks bleak .. Chipper starting to look aged and stiff !!!

  152. Dix
    Dix on May 18, 2009 at 8:55 pm

    Mac, how’s your head? Hurt from banging it against the wall all evening?

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