I actually like Yates more now, coming off a season in which he put up a 5.18 ERA, than I did last year, when his ERA was 3.96. This is partly because his statistical components were better. He walked 31 men in 2007, same as in 2006, but in 66 innings versus 50 the year before. He struck out 69, after striking out only 46 the year before — a few more K/9. He allowed the same number of homers. It’s just a little better, but a little better in all three DIPS components. He was just hit-unluckier in 2007 is all.
The other reason is that he was misused. Yates was heavily used at times when the starters weren’t going very deep in games, and he’s not very good when used in back-to-back days. His ERA on no day’s rest was 7.36 (18 1/3 innings), and that understates how badly he pitched — five of the twenty runs he allowed in those situations were scored unearned. Three of his six homers, 14 of his 31 walks, and all three of his HBP occurred in those 18 1/3 innings. With a day or two off to recover, he pitched much better.
Had a massive platoon split, .213/.297/.297 against righthanders, .310/.400/.560 against lefthanders. This wasn’t the case in 2006, and I don’t quite know what to make of it… Another reason for his poor year was that he got only one GIDP after getting six in 2006. Allowed seven stolen bases in eight attempts. That stuff piles up… He and Moylan are the only relievers from 2006 still with the club. (Boyer and Lerew did pitch briefly and poorly that year.)
He and Moylan are the only relievers from 2006 still with the club.
I guess that makes him Dean Tyler Kali Yates.
He’s okay. Ummm…(struggling)…he has the roundest mound face since Jason Schmidt…could be useful in a beanball brawl…is to surfing what John Burkett was to bowling…that’s all I got.
Santana trade reaction from Baseball America:
Minnesota might be better off if those talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he’s going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him.
Yates is just one of those relievers, and every team has them, that at times looks like he has nasty stuff and is very reliable, and at times he’s just going to get smoked. I like him enough to see him take one of our 7 ‘pen spots, I just don’t want him to be considered in out virtual, ‘top 3’.
Still smarting over this news this morning like someone punched me in the gut.
Since today is my big brother’s birthday, I told him since his team got Santana, he now has to return the nice DVD set I had sent to him from Amazon. He can’t have BOTH 🙂
So what are the chances that the Santana trade forces Wren to finally bolster our rotation?
I was comfortable with what we have before, as it still matched up well against our division, but if we got Tex for a year to “win now”, then how can you sit on your hands when the Mets landed the best pitcher in baseball?
We need to make that push to win big, and get somebody like Bedard who can help us. Even more now.
Reason #49 why I love Bravesjournal:
It’s easy to have a mostly emotional view on a player. This guy’s nickname is Kali for a reason.
But Mac’s insights gave me tangible things to watch. If he can’t pitch two days in a row, do we need him? Where’d that platoon balloon come from?
After reading the last thread, it seemed that the Mutts HAD to do something positive and special off-season to try to balance out their historical collapse.
Sanatana or not, I don’t fear the Mutts.
i’m afraid to see what wren may see as an upgrade and what he’s willing to give up to acquire them. it seems to me that the whole reason the braves weren’t active in going after Santana and other top arms is that we don’t have the cash to pay them and try to keep Tex.
so i don’t really see the point of emptying the farm system trying to play catch up with the mets. If there were a chance to go after a young guy like Bedard, maybe, but i still think the mets will find a way to blow it this year.
kali, should be fine as long as we don’t have to count on him to be “the” guy. sure he’s gonna suck at times, but whatelse do expect from a former met?
BX…I agree. I wanted Erik Bedard or Dan Haren before, but I felt that with the state of the Mets and Phillies rotations, a Smoltz-Huddy-Glavine-James rotation would still be the top starting rotation in the East. (I would still have given the overall NL edge to San Diego and Arizona).
But with the Mets adding the best starting pitcher in Baseball to arguably the best lineup in the National League, the Braves are NOW clearly behind the 8 ball.
It’s not as though we can’t win…the cupboard is not exactly bare. But there’s a confidence factor and even more evident with the remarks from Francouer yesterday.
It’s OK for us fans, us plebians to panic, but that’s NOT what I want to hear from our star right fielder. He should say that sure, Santana is a terrific pitcher and is going to strengthen the division rival, but that the Braves are a confident team and aren’t afraid of anyone.
Francouer sounds like us the fans and that’s NOT good.
Now I feel even stronger that Wren needs to try and get the Bedard deal done.
Wren isn’t going to do anything like that. If they could have gotten Bedard or Haren earlier, they would have. They certainly aren’t going to now offer the store now. It’s not clear anyway that nitwit Angelos will ever part with Bedard. That’s not how the Braves operate. I suspect the Mets are favorites to win the division, but it’s not as if they are now the 1927 Yankees.
The Mets don’t have the strongest lineup in the NL. Maybe the strongest top 3, but after Reyes/Beltran/Wright, their lineup is not at all imposing. Our lineup is much stronger, top to bottom. They needed Santana.
That said, I wouldn’t be upset if we tried to play catchup by acquiring Bedard (who, incidentally, is not that young) or even one of the Brewers’ spare starters (Capuano or Bush), as I mentioned a little while ago.
I’d argue that the Mets don’t have arguably the best lineup in the NL this year. Carlos Delgado is on the decline and is poor against LHP. Brian Schneider’s no great shakes at catcher. Luis Castillo, Church and Endy Chavez don’t scare me. They have Wright, Reyes and Beltran, and some days they’ll have Moises Alou. There’s a reason they collapsed last year. I think the Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Brewers (and maybe even the Astros) put a better lineup out there than the Mets.
Francouer said it was the worst news he heard all day. I imagine a close second was hearing that his dog took a poop in the linen closet again.
or that he ate a whole wheel of cheese.
But he couldn’t even be mad about that.
I don’t know it was probably an expensive wheel of cheese.
The Mets still are facing injury isuues to 40% of their rotation (Pedro and El Duque) and have to wonder if 40% can duplicate their 07 success (Maine and Perez). So all Santana does is take the 20% ‘How do we replace Glavine?’ question out of play.
Of course, they took it out of play in a major way…..
I still say that Santana makes them one of the favorites to win the division, but they were already one of the favorites.
Maybe the dog was actually punted.
Nevin, agree on all cylinders.
Also, what percentage of world discourse since the movie Anchorman came out has consisted solely of quoting the movie Anchorman? I say 5%.
Does anybody else think the package we dealt for Texiera was better than the package the Twins got for Santana?
Makes me wonder if we couldn’t have gotten involved in the sweepstakes.
The Mets deal is horrible mostly because I can’t imagine any way they could have improved their team more. They give up dirt for prospects, take their crummy fifth starter out of play, and replace those innings with super ace innings. All it’s going to cost them is money, nothing of any on the field value.
This is very discouraging. Moves like this hurt not only because they improve a rival, but because they point to a systemic attribute that dooms the Braves to always playing spotting the Mets two super stud players. (I think we were $20 mil behind them last year, so a Santana-level contract makes that gap even more ridiculous.)
The Pirates and Rays should really move to New York and either Boston or LA.
I agree, JoeyT. One way to level out the playing field substantially would be to either add *or* move teams to New York and Boston (my preference would be to move teams and avoid additional dilution of talent). This would eliminate a need for a salary cap by making the huge media markets smaller.
guys, that’s baseball. yes it sucks but i still think atlanta has a more than reasonable chance at the division.
Kali is his middle name, not nickname.
it’s pronounced kah-LEE. I thought it was KAH-lee (like short for California) but he corrected me one day I was talking to him before a game.
Kali is his middle name and his nickname around here, especially when he comes in and blows up.
Braves Journal » Reds 8, Braves 6, Tyler Yates is the four-armed Hindu Goddess of Destruction
my favorite Kali memory is when he came into the 9th inning to save a game against the Marlins last year. I think Bob Shitman had one of his meltdowns and Yates came into shut the door.
then, the next day Olivo hit yet another HR off of Wickman and we lost in extra innings. that same game Yunel had an amazing at-bat to drive in two runs in the 9th I think.
Looking at last year’s Mets as the starting point.
With no moves to cover the loss of Glavine, they were down 2 to 3 games.
Santana covers that 2 to 3 and adds 2 to 3 more, IF he is healthy (probbly, but at least some question on EVERY pitcher).
Pedro is a wild card. Does he add them 2 to 3 games? Does he add them anything?
El Duque is likely neutral to negative from last year. High chance for even less innings.
The trade lost them their only viable 5th starter replacements. They will need anywhere from 20 to 40 starts from “6 and lower). They have nothing left to trade for a new 6 unless they let F Mart go. At 20 games, they drop 4 extra games that they won last year.
I guess I see them as last year plus 3, maybe higher, maybe lower.
Our focus has to be long run, winning 90 games. If we do that, the odds of us being out are slim.
it also seems like the mets are really counting on Santana to go 7 and 8 innings, which could only exacerbate any arm issue he has and/or the strain on their relief corps.
Not to mention that if Maine and/or Perez regress/get hurt, then the Mets have to replace them with a #7 or lower.
So, yes, Santana firms up the top of their rotation, but acqyiring him sure leaves the cupboard bare in case any of the others have issues.
Well, the cupboard was bare before. Phil Humber ain’t much of a replacement, nor is Kevin Mulvey. At least now they have a real horse.
Hopefully he has Calros Beltran’s New York pressure allergy
One thing that happened though, is that basically, what the Mets paid is a fair amount of compensation for 1 year and a negotiating window. Anything beyond this year was not able to be traded by the Twins.
With Haren and Bedard, the trading team had control for two years, not one.
Maybe we should have offered something to the Twins to not trade Santana to the Mets?
Agreed it would have been one thing if they were trading away players that could have been important pieces of a team (Heilman/Reyes). There was no one of those players that projected to be a vital part of the team. You never know about injuries and the such, but when you do not give up major league talent that is a bonus.
One thing that happened though, is that basically, what the Mets paid is a fair amount of compensation for 1 year and a negotiating window. Anything beyond this year was not able to be traded by the Twins.
Yeah, that’s what Keith Law says. Here’s what I say: That negotiating window is worth more than you’re giving credit for. It’s basically a closed universe by acquiring him now—you allow him to hit the market after ’08, and you stand a much better chance of not being the highest bidder. For a team with a basically unlimited money supply, you were getting the current best pitcher in baseball for the next 7 or 8 years.
I think it is stupid to sign a pitcher to a 7 year contract, but that is obviously what the market dictates (see Zito). I think that Santana has actually been pretty fair about what he was asking for from the Twins. He was only looking for a contract similar to Zito’s contract, which, considering the difference in quality pitchers is very fair. I cannot imagine what he would get if he entered the free agent market.
I think it is stupid to sign a pitcher to a 7 year contract…
Only if you can’t afford a few years of $20+ million in sunk costs. The Mets can afford a few years of $20+ million in sunk costs.
Great deal for the Mets. I have already had to deal with a gloating Mets’ fan, but what bothers me is how much the Braves had to give up for Tex (who we will probably not be able to re-sign) and how comparatively little the Mets gave up for Santana–who they probably will ink to a long term contract.
If this is what it takes for Wrenn to go out and get another starter thats great, but it should not have required this type of stimulus….
The Braves don’t have a habit of making panic trades and I don’t think the acquisition of Santana would force them to. Atlanta has a really good team. It has no less or more holes or questions than any other team. So they should be happy to go to war with the team they have.
I can’t believe that the Twins couldn’t extract more from the Red Sox or the Yankees. I guess qauntity won out. Maybe the sheer number of pitching prospects from the Mets sealed the deal. I guess the Twins figure they don’t really need anything major league ready since they are effectively out of contention at this point.
For the Mets, if the net gain in wins is 5 or 6 games then they are looking good. Lots of ifs in their rotation but talk about win now, they have made an emphatic statment thats where they are.
I don’t see the Braves doing anything to compensate. Acquiring Bedard is not going to happen. The Mariners are offering a lot more and better than we could and Angelos the moron won’t take the trade.
We just have to make the playoffs.
The Mets are undeniably a better team in 2008 by getting Johan. We can question the rest of their rotation, but having him will only make them better, especially considering they didn’t give up any major league level-impacting talent. Long time, they may have really depleted their farm by making this trade.
We’re still a pretty good team too, and I think we can still compete with him. It’s not the end of the world.
Still can’t figure out the Twins reasoning. They had to know that they were in a 3 team market for Santana. The initial offerings from the Yankees and Bosox look a lot better than what they got from the Mets.
It is a significant change in the outlook for the NL East though because of the accursed unbalanced schedule. On paper the core of Santana, Beltran, Wright, Reyes and some could argue Martinez and Wagner looks awfully good.
Oh well, makes for an interesting winter leading up to April when we start playing. I won’t lose any sleep over it and I still like our team a lot.
Things to keep in mind:
Cormier, et al.–> Glavine is an upgrade of about the same magnitude as Glavine –> Santana. Getting rid of absolute dreck is just as important as going from decent to elite.
The Braves have a better lineup than the Mets. In fact, according to some (eg, David Pinto’s lineup projections over at baseballmusings.com), the Braves have the best lineup in the League.
The Braves had the best Pythagorean record in the division last year, and now their club is significantly better.
If you really want to talk about rotations, the Mets have absolutely no depth if one of their guys goes down, whereas the Braves have something of a wealth of it.
So, while this trade definitely puts the Mets right back up there with the Braves and the Phils, it doesn’t even make them the clear favorite.
It’s hard to spin it. The Mets got Johan Santana and the Braves got….Tom Glavine.
Also, I’m starting to think this wasn’t the Twins “thinking” about it too much; I think they just waited way to long. Should’ve taken Hughes or Lester 2 months ago instead of waiting it out.
As for why they got so much less than the Haren or Bedard (rumored) deals is mostly the money. In those cases, it’s two or three rather cheap years of a top-teir starter. In Santana’s case, it’s one year then you’re on the hook for $20+M for 6-7 years. Not only does that eliminate a lot of teams from even considering it, I’m willing to bet Santana vetoed a couple himself.
Also, there was the desire to get him out of the AL. I’m not sure if that was worth waiting until Huges and Lester were pulled off the table. I tend to think the Twins just botched it themselves.
Dan- Think of it like this:
The Mets lost Tom Glavine.
The Braves lost Mark Redman.
Or, the Met got Santana and the Braves First-Round Draft Pick.
And the Braves got Glavine…
Losing Glavine of last year is a big minus on a Mets team that already didn’t make it to postseason. They have now made up that and gained ground with Santana. But, if we add as many runs as we should, gain any ground on run prevention, and win like “Pythag” says we should, then we are 90 or a little over wins without any amazing things happening.
I read, maybe from Olney, that money played an issue here. So mraver is probably right: nobody but the Mets seemed to be willing, ultimately, to give Santana the extension he demanded.
As AWESOM-O 4000 would say “Lame!”
Interesting Bob Klapisch article — basically, Bill Smith screwed up in December when he didn’t take Phil Hughes, and then screwed up again when he was afraid that Johan wouldn’t waive his no-trade if he didn’t make a deal immediately.
Rookie mistakes by a greenhorn GM, and he let the Mets get away with a steal.
As a person with the name Bill Smith, I really take offence to all this.
Overpay now for Bedard or Kazmir please.
Has Mac done a bio on Bedard? I’d like to see one.
I think a great representation of Kali familiar to the board is in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. That stuff at the end. The “Thuggees” were worshipping the goddess of destruction.
We just need the destruction to befall our opponents.
Fortune and glory, kid. Fortune and glory.
“Chilled monkey brains!”
I think the twins could feel everything going south on this when the yankees pulled back their offer and also knew they couldn’t afford to give a 6-7 year contract. Once the yanks were out the picture boston had no real need to acquire Santana, for obvious reasons they were just in the race to keep him away from the yanks. The twins had put a deadline for offers so they could meet Santana’s wish. So they went with the best offer on the table to and got something for him instead of letting him walk next year.
Obviously, Santana is a great pitcher. Even worse, being left-handed, he neutralizes a good part of the Braves pop. Chipper is not nearly as strong from the right side (at least last year) and then you have McCann and KJ both hitting from the left side. The Braves may face the prospect of seeing Pedro, Santana, and Perez in the same series.
Braves against righthanded pitchers:
.274 .340 .438 .778
Braves against lefthanded pitchers:
.276 .338 .428 .766
(All are BA/OBP/SLG/OPS.) It’s a small but real difference.
That’s without a full year of Teix, correct?
And could you find the difference he made?
Yeah Justin. 5 runs a game before Teix, 5.5 after Teix. (with Esco getting half of Renteria’s at bats and with the “bad Willie Harris” getting at bats).
Also, Teix is slightly better against lefthanders than righthanders. Wilson would have played against lefthanders early, then Thorman, then Salty, then Julio before Teix. Actual OPS adjustment about 300 points.
is this really will ohman? man, he looks disgruntled!
One thing that I haven’t seen mentioned is the parallels between Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen. The Mets are getting Santana at age 29, coming 1 year removed from a Cy Young Award. The Mets got Saberhagen coming 2 years removed from his Cy Young and entering his 28th year. Now, I will grant you that Saberhagen certainly had more wear and tear on his arm than Santana has to this point. Two Cy Youngs apiece at very similar ages. I think we all know how the Saberhagen story ended up, he basically had one good, healthy season in his Mets career and three and a half years later, he was gone.
I personally think that although the Twins were basically backed up against a wall, and I don’t think that they got much back in return, but I’m hoping that they saw the writing on the wall, similarly to how the Royals saw the writing on the wall with Saberhagen. After being talked down from the ledge and giving it some thought since the trade went down, history is littered with young pitchers who looked like they were Hall of Famers and suffered arm injuries after heavy workloads.
I’m not saying Santana isn’t great, and I’m not wishing injury upon him, but the bottom line is he’s thrown 1300+ innings, through age 28, and I don’t we should just pencil in the Mets in the National League or the East quite yet.
He looks like he *really* likes mustard on his biscuits.
And there’s no way he’s 205.
@ 62 & 64. I think that’s just the weight of his head.
Ohman’s picture looks like it was taken by a Fulton County police clerk.
Born in Frankfurt, Germany—that’s about the only thing we have in common. Army brat, I’m guessing.
Schooled at Pepperdine. Drove by that campus a couple months ago. Right off the beach in Malibu, pretty amazing.
That’s not Will Ohman. I thought he was much skinnier.
Apparently it is…
Who am I thinking of…?
The NL East is now the strongest as it’s been since realignment.
But vs lefties Javi will catch!
ohman looks about ten years older than he should…i wonder if his birth certificate has been altered. 😉
Saberhagen had an odd career anyway; unhittable in even years, very hittable in odd years. He never really put two strong years together, at least not later in his career. Other than the age and I guess innings pitched, I’m not sure there is much parallel between Santana and Saberhagen. Having said that, there is no such thing as a sure thing in a pitcher so who knows? I saw a Mets fan on ESPN predict that Santana would win 22-25 games with the Mets. With that kind of delusion, no wonder it’s so hard to play in New York. Have fun, Johan, the first time you actually give up runs and the Shea crowd starts booing.