Hall of Fame likes Goose, cutting back on starches

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Gossage is in with 86 percent, Rice missed by 14 votes. I’ll update later with Murph’s results (I think he’ll stay on the ballot) but I have to run now.

National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum: Hall of Fame Vote Totals

Murphy at 13.8 percent. Last year it was 9.2. This is probably partially a Mitchell Report bounce.

Raines at 24.3 percent. That three-quarters of the BBWAA voters think Tim Raines isn’t worthy to share space with Tommy McCarthy and Frank Chance is as big of sign that they shouldn’t be the ones doing the voting as I can think of.

ADDENDUM: I should add that Dave Justice got one vote. I don’t think he should be in the Hall either, but that’s the same number as Shawon Dunston and one less than Travis Fryman. Riiiiight.

73 thoughts on “Hall of Fame likes Goose, cutting back on starches”

  1. I can’t believe Raines got less than 25 percent. Add him to Blyleven and Santo on the “plainly overqualified but not in” list.

  2. Glad to see Goose made it. I remember how intimidating he was when he came in at the end of games. He was fierce and dominant. Congratulations to him.

  3. Murph got 75 votes, 13.8%. He’ll stay on the ballot but doesn’t look any closer to making it.

    Yeah he picked up some votes but everyone did because there were no good candidates this year.

    I can’t believe they are going to put Jim Rice in next year while Raines and Trammell are on the outside. How ridiculous.

  4. Blyleven went up by about fourteen percent, a little more. I think that the arguments are working, but he has to go up another 13.1 percent, and only has four years to go.

    Rice… Rickey goes on the ballot next year, and that hurts his chances. It’s his last year on the ballot. I’m going to predict he doesn’t make it in 2009, but with Rice gone Dawson does make it in 2010.

  5. Nobody has gotten as close as Rice in Year 14 and not gotten in in Year 15. I don’t think Rickey will hurt him that much, sure they are both outfielders but not really comparable players.

    It’s tough to be small-Haller these days. Jim Rice – give me a break.

  6. I’ll try to remember that as we slog through the Goose-Rice-Dawson triple crown of Very Goodness.

  7. anybody else remember the sound when gossage hit ron cey in the head during the series? i thought the guy was dead and gossge just glanced in toward him like he was mildly curious as to how much damage his fastball would do.

  8. I can see why people care about the hall of fame, but it doesn’t make me one damn bit of difference who’s in or who’s out and why they are or aren’t more deserving than another guy. Its just one more argument that I can live without.

    That’s my new year’s resolution, to be involved in unecessarily stressful activities. But it looks like you guys are having fun so carry on. I will observe.

  9. “to not be involved in unecessarily stressful activities” is how that should read

  10. Atleast Goose’s induction speech will be fun.

    I am hoping Rice doesn’t make it, though with that high a %, he will make it through the VC if not next year.
    Rickey’s ballot presence is more likely to hurt Raines than Rice. After that, its clean sailing till the dreaded Bonds-Clemens vote of 2012.

    McGwire stuck at the same vote total, poor guy.

  11. Why not Santo? Not only does he deserve it but you would think the guy having the tribulations of Job would help his case plus being a Cubs announcer. I know his career wasn’t that long but he was clearly the best third baseman in the NL during the 60s and arguably the best in baseball at least offensively.

    McGuire should get in. Being a lousy witness in front of Congress should have nothing to do with it just like Bonds being an asshole should not have anything to do with it. Maybe McGuire should have said something like “I have not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party.” Unless is it shown that their ability was entirely steroid-related, I say put them in. Steroid use is bad but at least they didn’t beat up people like Ty Cobb did.

  12. #17

    It was thought by some that the most recent changes to the Veterans Committee were undertaken in part to redress the wrong that is Santo’s exclusion. And then he STILL doesn’t make it.

    His career ended somewhat abruptly at age 34, but as of the year 2000 he was eighth on the all-time list of games played at third base, so career length isn’t actually the problem that some have claimed.

  13. I think that Santo’s case has been hurt because Mike Schmidt was so good that he sort of dwarfed other third basemen from that era (although Santo was really the previous era). But, if so, that’s idiotic because it doesn’t make sense to keep one guy out because another guy playing the same position was better. By that token, there would be one from each position. I also think a lot of these voters are being influenced in reverse by the fact that the counting stats from the sixties are so much worse than after. It’s stupid either way.

  14. who the hell voted for travis fryman? how in the world does he get two votes?

    how does mattingly get more votes than murph?

    another year of chuck knoblauch getting a vote?

    i think that the people who voted for fryman need to have their credentials taken away immediately.

  15. In a sense, it’s similar to the discussion the other day about Concepcion and Trammell being kept out because they’re getting compared to Ripken and Yount (and then A-Rod and Jeter). Santo not only had to bear comparisons to Schmidt but also to Brett and Boggs, who were also active — and threatening to hit .400 — when he should have been elected.

    The increase in offense has also hurt Santo, as it has many players whose careers were centered in the sixties. His most-similar player, according to SimScores, is Gary Gaetti. He was a far better player than Gaetti, and his batting average was 22 points higher, but Gaetti actually hit more homers. His most-similar hitter (without positional adjustments) is probably actually Murphy or Berra.

    The foreshortened career did hurt, not because it really lessened his value but because he had a good shot at 3000 hits. His two-most similar hitters at age 34 (his last year, and a short one at that) are Ripken and Kaline. Winfield and Yaz are also on the list.

  16. I think Jim Rice deserves to get into the Hall of Fame.

    He had 6 top-5 MVP finishes, including an MVP in 1978, plus 8 All-Star games. If the notion of “Hall of Fame years” impresses you, it could be argued that, between 1975-86, he had 10 of them.

  17. How the fork did Shooter get two votes. The writers must have thought it was the Whiskey Hall of Hame. RIP Shooter.

    Personally, I think Andre Dawson is more qualified for the Hall and here is hoping the Hawk makes it in the next couple of years. Fun Fact: There are four players in MLB history who went to Florida A&M – Dawson, Hal McRae, Vince Coleman, and Marquis Grissom. Not a dud among those four.

    One more thing, I’m glad to see that Justice got one vote. If I were a voter, I would have voted for him just for that HR alone in game 6.

  18. I know I’m probably older than some of the voters but I can’t understand how anyone with even a cursory knowledge of baseball history does not realize that hitting was much more difficult in the sixties. Surely everyone has heard of the Year of the Pitcher in 1968. I remember people used to make fun of Yaz for winning the batting title in ’68 at .301 but in retrospect that was a phenomenal accomplishment.

  19. Thought many of y’all would enjoy this from a Rob Neyer chat this afternoon:

    Peter (Albany): Rob, congratulations, you are the most feared chatter of your era. I was looking at the ESPN ballots, and almost all of them included Rice. But almost none for Dale Murphy…don’t they have the same argument. Great peak, short career, except Murph played defense

    Rob Neyer: Yeah. Though Murphy wasn’t lucky enough to play half his games in Fenway Park. Really, there’s no excuse voting for one but not the other, and when you consider defense Murphy was *clearly* the more valuable player, over the course of his career. It’s not close.

  20. To me, Dawson just misses. In my view, he was the classic “compiler” of career numbers.

    He had lots and lots of good seasons—he was outstanding between 1980-83—but just 7 “Hall of Fame” years, IMO. (Yes, I know about his knees.)

    I don’t go crazy about the fact that he hardly walked, but that was certainly the case. His OBP is pretty low.

  21. Neyer also observed that Chipper has been fantastic when he has played and he thinks he should be in. My feeling is that if Chipper doesn’t get in, there is no way they should even consider Andruw. Chipper is much the better player and has always been more valuable than Andruw. Andruw might well end up with a lot more home runs but he is not even close to being as good a hitter as Chipper. Obviously, Andruw’s defense adds significant value but not enough in my view to make him a better pick than Chipper. Yet, a lot of people are predicting Andruw will make it based on his ending up with a lot of home runs. Sorry, that would be a travesty if Andruw made it and not Chipper. Sorry for the rant.

  22. Though Murphy wasn’t lucky enough to play half his games in Fenway Park.

    Home: .320/.374/.546/.920 208 HR
    Away: .277/.330/.459/.789 174 HR

    Home: .281/.368/.499/.867 217 HR
    Away: .250/.324/.440/.764 181 HR

    Both players received a nice home field bump. I think it would be pretty tough to use the ‘park adjustment’ argument in favor of a player who played half his games at the launching pad.

  23. Rice and Dawson are somewhat similar. Both took brief breaks in their primes from being elite players (Rice 80-82, Dawson 84-86) for no known reason and that’s what keeping them out of the Hall.

    The difference is that Dawson lasted longer. Rice’s last good season was at age 33, Dawson at 35 (you could argue for 36). Also Dawson stole 314 bases at a good percentage while Rice stole 58 at a bad percentage. The choice between them seems clear to me, but my real choice is that neither would make it.

    Of course the most important difference between them for HOF purposes is that one spent his best years in Boston and the other in Montreal.

  24. Some people argue that Santo is a better 3B than Chipper ( based on era adjustment and for defence ). I think its hogwash really. Chipepr is below average defensively but not as bad as BPro makes him out to be.
    He is closer Brett/Matthews than Santo.

  25. Of course the most important difference between them for HOF purposes is that one spent his best years in Boston and the other in Montreal.

    True and sad.

  26. I just can’t figure out how Chipper can be made out to be such an awful defender. He’s barely adequate, but he’s not historically bad.

  27. Murphy v Dawson is a classic case of peak v career value. As for MVP finishes, I think its not a fair standard. The people who are voting for the MVP are the people voting for HoF induction, so you are double counting. Plus Dawson’s MVP was undeserved.

    The big hole in Dawson’s case is that low OBP.

  28. I think my favorite thing about Chipper’s b-ref page is that his most similar hitter through age 25 was Fernando Tatis. What hogwash. Chipper never hit two grand slams in an inning.

  29. BP stupidly compares players’ defense to the Major League average at their position, not to replacement level. Chipper is a little bit below average, and is probably in the top ten all-time in games played at third base, certainly top twenty. This means in BP’s methodology he’s getting -7 runs a season year after year, so he’s turned in about as many “negative” runs as you can.

    He’s a C-, D+ defender. It’s not good, but it’s not bad, and the effect (compared to what you’d get if you moved him back to the outfield and put a glove man at third base) isn’t nearly what BP pretends it is.

  30. Marc-

    Chipper is the third best hitting switch-hitter of ALL-TIME. I realize that in itself isn’t a qualification, but it’s pretty telling about what he’s done over the course of his career. He should get in.

    As for Andruw… well, I guess we couldn’t let him in if his career ended today. But if he puts up 3-5 more years like his pre-2007 norm, I’d vote for him. His defense was historically good for the first 5-8 years of his career. And when I say “historically” I mean they were some of the best of all-time for a CF. What this probably means is that his “peak” was from about 1998 to 2002. After that, he’s been merely a “very good” CF. Still, throw that all in a blender and I think you’ve got a legit case for putting him in the hall.

    To belabor the point, which other CFs would you put in ahead of him? Griffy Jr. surely, but he was an elite hitter and merely a “very good” to “good” defensive CF over the course of his career, nowhere near as good as AJ. But who else? Beltran has had a comparable career at the plate (albeit two years shorter, and they’re the same age), but he was never the defender Jones was. Then you’re down to vastly inferior guys like Vernon Wells (poor hitter and fielder) and Torii Hunter (same) and Mike Cameron (common!). And none of those guys have been nearly as durable as Jones, who has been in at least 153 games every year since 1998.

    So Druw is arguably the best CF of his generation. If this year was an aberration (I think it was) and not the first step of a precipitous decline, he should be a shoe-in in a few years, and have a better case for the hall than Chipper or Smoltz.

  31. Chipper surprisingly is 26th in games at 3B since 1957.

    Here is the list
    PI list

    I might have done this wrong but I don’t think so :)

  32. oh fark, the linking doesn’t work.
    Anyway PI is free till 11th for those who aint subscribers. So try away.

    mraver, Griffey is better, Beltran is equivalent, Edmonds is better ( to date ). Heck Bernie Williams/Damon/Lofton have a case of being not that far behind. I don’t see how you can call him the best of this generation

  33. Mraver, I completely agree, and have nothing to add.

    So instead I’ll attack Jim Rice in the most cliched way I can think of. Jim Rice would be a charter member of the Hall of the Very Good. The day they opened a Hall of the Very Good (in a city like Rome, Georgia, or Gloucester, Massachusetts), I’d be the first person to lobby for the inclusion of Jim Rice, Lew Burdette, Steve Garvey, Mark Grace, Don Mattingly, and Rico Carty.

    But they don’t have a Hall of the Very Good. Though some people have been known to mistake it for a Hall of the Popular, what we actually have is a Hall of Fame. You don’t get the Cooperstown kind of Fame by playing in a big media market and having a couple good years followed by a bunch of overrated ones. No, you get the Cooperstown kind of Fame by being great for a long time, or really, really great for a slightly less long time.

    But as soon as Jim Rice can get Peter Gammons, Dan Shaughnessy, and the rest of the Boston Globe sports page to sponsor the Gloucester Baseball Hall of the Very Good, I’ll be the loudest voice arguing for his entry.

  34. The big hole in Dawson’s case is that low OBP.

    There’s that and then there’s this:

    Home: .281/.330/.481/.811 207 HR
    Away: .278/.316/.483/.799 231 HR

    He wasn’t fortunate enough to get favorable home park(s) in his career to pump up his numbers like Murphy and Rice were. There are probably voters out there who are just voting for one of the outfielders and that doesn’t help.

  35. Actually, Robert, that’s something I’d like to know more about. How much does a home park affect OBP apart from BA? Obviously, his BA and SLG are almost exactly the same home and away, though his OBP is about 15 points higher at home.

    In general, would you expect a favorable hitters’ park to raise walks, or just batting average and slugging?

  36. i’d vote for dawson just because hes the second guy from my high school to play in the majors………..that makes me about as predujdiced as the colwns with a real vote

  37. AAR………..just read #41 and i agree except for the fact that if gossage wasnt a bright light in the martin-steinbrenner 3 ring circus and bronx zoo ( and part of some great yankee teams) he’d still be wandering in the wilderness with sutter, lee smith, etc.

  38. In general, would you expect a favorable hitters’ park to raise walks, or just batting average and slugging?

    The correlation coefficent between runs and walks (that is, a good run scoring environment also being a good walking environment) is around 0.3. Which is in the small to moderate range. Runs to HR is about 0.6, runs to hits is about 0.8. Which is pretty good correlation as you would expect.

  39. ‘Cuda, why not Sparky Lyle, then? Gossage is, as I’ve written, eminently qualified, probably the second-best reliever of all-time. The only reasons he wasn’t in already are that people are hung up on saves and a few old writers are against relievers generally.

  40. One thing I generally don’t hold against voters are the very small numbers of votes for really ridiculous candidates. Those votes for Justice, Dunston, and Fryman are functionally nostalgia votes. “I loved him passionately when he played, aside from exactly how good he was.”
    Everybody knows they’re not /actually/ getting in, but it’s a nice little recognition that voters have the opportunity to give. It’s just a symbolic gesture.

    As an aside, I would think the same thing for voters for Morris, but they seem to actually want him in, and Justice may have a better case than Morris does.

  41. Comparing players from different eras is tough, as Marc points out at #25. If a player hit 40-50 home runs when pitchers like Koufax, Drysdale, Marichal, Gibson and Spahn pitched off the high mound, that boy could mash.

    Of course, guys like Robin Roberts, emphasis on guys here to differentiate from employees of ESPN, still gave up close to 50 a year and ended up in the HOF. I guess there were some fly ball pitchers in` the ’50s and ’60s too.

    mraver @ 38: If you’re female and willing, I’ll convert to Islam and make you wife number two.

    Personally, I think Chipper and Smoltz will get in the HOF, and I hope but doubt that Murph will someday make it too.

    You may have noticed that I’m a staunch Andruw advocate. I hope he has five more stellar years to enhance his crendentials, but even if he and Murph don’t make it, I still love both of them.

  42. mac…….the only reason i know is………sparky didnt look as scary as gossage…………al harbrowski(sp?) should be a soo-in

  43. sorry ububba….short term memory loss…….but thats ok……..it matches the long -term loss but i dont worry about it. theres always someone standing by to orrect me.

  44. Crendentials = credentials. I probably should not have said I love Andruw and Murph after proposing to mraver.

  45. HOF Braves (predom. career) from the Golden Years:
    1) G. Maddux
    2) T. Glavine
    3) J. Smoltz
    4) C. Jones
    5) A. Jones

    Maybe I am a homer, but I think objectively that all 5 get in.

  46. I agree that they all get in.

    I’ve said it before, but my analogy for the “Golden Years” Braves—or whatever we call it—is the Boys of Summer Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s.

    Sorry, can’t help it. I do it for a living.

  47. Andruw’s basic problem is that:

    a) He has to hang around long enough to pile up numbers, but;
    b) That is probably going to take a toll on his defense, which is his real calling card.

    If people think of him as a slugger hitting .260 with 35 HR a season for a long time, he probably won’t get in. He has to make sure they think of him as an all-time great outfielder who was also a power hitter.

  48. This is Andruw’s career comps list — that is, these guys had similar career stats to what Andruw has now:

    1. Rocky Colavito (927)
    2. Ron Gant (909)
    3. Reggie Sanders (907)
    4. Frank Howard (903)
    5. Jim Edmonds (900)
    6. Matt Williams (897)
    7. George Foster (891)
    8. Dick Allen (890)
    9. Roy Sievers (886)
    10. Greg Vaughn (885)

    Those are some good players, and one bonafide HOF candidate (Allen). Basically, he already has most of a Hall of Fame career, but needs to put in a few finishing touches.

  49. Beltran has a similar OPS+ but was never the defender Andruw was and has played in 440 games fewer than Andruw. That’s like 3 seasons. And they’re the same age. So at this point, I don’t see how you can put them in the same category.

    Griffy, like I said, is probably better, but there’s a wide gap defensively, and Druw has thus far been far more durable. If he continues playing as long as Griffy has (which we’ll have to wait and see about), it’ll be very close IMO.

    As for Edmonds, his peak year for putouts (389) is lower than Andruw’s average year! Sure, he’s got the edge in offense, but he was 37 last year whereas Jones was 30. Andruw is currently about 80 games behind Edmonds in appearances, and it’s not unrealistic to expect Jones to finish with over 1000 more games played than Edmonds. But you were talking about “to date”…. After taking defense into account, I think its fair to say that they’re similar, but 10 years from now, I don’t think anyone will be talking about those two as similar players.

    Bernie Williams is a similar thing, except he wasn’t as good of a hitter as Edmonds but was a bit more durable.

    Damon has played a lot more, but… his career OPS+ is 104, which is pathetic when compared to the other guys you’ve been talking about. Williams was a much better player than Damon.

    Lofton is better than Damon but still no where near Andruw’s standard.

    Anyhow, I guess what I meant was that if Jones doesn’t fall off a cliff, he could very reasonably be considered the best CF of his generation 5 or 10 years from now. If Druw stops playing tomorrow, then yeah, Edmonds is up there along with Williams, Griffy is clearly at the top, and guys like Beltran and maybe Vernon Wells could turn out pretty good. But if the second half of his career is anywhere close to as good as the first half, he’ll be a HoFer for sure.

  50. And, as I always like to point out, Beltran is all of one day younger than Andruw. That’s almost as remarkable as Bagwell and Thomas.

    I should add that Beltran’s most-similar player is an actual Hall of Famer, Larry Doby (though Doby’s career got off to a slightly late start) and his most-similar through age is Dale Murphy.

  51. mraver as a griffey fan i have to say that one of the big differences between him and other cfs of his generation are his peaks. he was the no doubt about it best player in the game for several years. also i can remember that in his peak years he was often regarded as the best defensive cf in the game.

    what a great core. chipper, smoltz, maddux, glavine and andruw in different combos over a decade and a half. folks we are lucky lucky fans.

  52. Yup, yup.

    At this point, I agree that Andruw couldn’t drop dead & get into the HoF. There’s certainly some work to do.

    I tend to believe he’ll have a few more impressive years. But that’s based only on the assumption that he was playing hurt this past year.

    It seems to be tougher for an outfielder to connect with HoF voters on this level, but I’ll go there: I think voters/people will remember Andruw as the Brooks Robinson of CF. His offensive numbers don’t have to be close to Griffey’s, they just have to be good.

    How people digest his offensive numbers from this era (the ones they tally anyway) will be a curious thing, but if he returns to previous form for a few more years, I think he’ll get in.

  53. I’m racking my brains here, but I can’t think of an outfielder who’s in the Hall of Fame who wouldn’t be if he was a worse defensive player. Ashburn, maybe, but I don’t think his defensive statistics got him in.

  54. To bring back our minor league discussion from a little while ago, do you think Andruw might have benefited from a year at AAA? Obviously, his minor league numbers were so unbelievable that it was basically impossible to keep him on the farm, but even then he didn’t walk a ton and struck out a fair bit.

    I haven’t been as vehement an Andruw-basher as some — like Alex R. — but I wonder if Andruw could have had a couple more years like his 2000 season if he could have locked in more good habits in the minors. He’s always tinkered with his swing. Do you think he might have been able to learn a little more discipline if he hadn’t hit 2 homers at the age of 19 and been a starting player from age 20 on?

  55. To be honest, the Braves’ offensive instruction in the minors at that time was really bad. They were the anti-A’s, focusing on making everyone more “aggressive”. The players who came out and had success were guys like Andruw and Furcal, who blew through the system, or like Marcus, who was too stubborn to listen to the coaches (Andruw has some of this as well) and whom the organization didn’t really take seriously, or like Dye and got away from the Braves’ coaches before they could do more damage.

  56. Maddux and Glavine are first ballot 5 years after retirement.

    Smoltz and Chipper will probably have to wait a few years, but should ultimately get in.

  57. Mac,
    I think Ashburn got in mostly because he was career .300 hitter for 15 years.

    As it relates to HoF voters, I’m not talking explicitly about Andruw’s defensive numbers; I’m talking about a defensive reputation (albeit an earned one) & things people have seen with their own eyes over and over again.

    Ask anyone about Andruw Jones and his defense is the first thing they bring up. (Of course, many Braves fans may remember the prolonged slumps.) I think his defense will get him into Cooperstown eventually, as long as his offensive numbers don’t drop completely off the map.

  58. And he worked out so well in New England! And the last college coach worked out so well for Atlanta! (can we turn the Falcons front office into a reality show or something? I mean, there’s a writers strike but the nation still needs to laugh)

    Anyway… I must admit, even though I’m less interested in the recent Hall debates than are others here, I’ve been enjoying the recent FJM assaults on those who advocate Jack Morris. I highly recommend them. Jack Morris annoys me and I take solace in such things during the off-season.

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