The Braves have indicated that only three of their relievers are “certainties” for next year. Which is weird, because I just had two when I started planning this piece. (Note, I’m just going to predict what’s going to be the case at the start of real games, not what will happen in the season. Starting pitchers are hard enough to predict.)

THE CERTAINTIES

Bob Wickman will be the closer unless he gets hurt. That’s easy.

Chances
95 Percent: Opens as closer
5 Percent: Is hurt

Macay McBride will have a role of some sort. I’d like him to step forward as the primary setup man and closer-in-waiting because I think he has the best stuff. However, that may not be feasible. Lefties hit .181 against him; righties hit .312. He was a lot better in the second half (3.00 ERA, 31 K/12 BB in 30 IP). I think he’ll be the primary lefty.

Chances
50 Percent: LOOGY
20 Percent: Setup man
15 Percent: Middle relief
15 Percent: Injured or in minors

And Kali. It’s hard to understand why the Braves are so confident in Tyler Yates. All he has going for him is a nice strikeout rate, about one an inning — and the Braves have never paid much attention to strikeouts, hence Gryboski. He pitched much worse in the second half (3.12/4.41) and this was even while getting a huge break on balls in play (batters hit .217 against him in the second half, which he will not maintain). Opposing batters hit .268/.386/.524 with runners on base. I assume he’ll wash out by June and hopefully he’ll only have blown two or three games by then.

Chances
50 Percent: Primary setup man
30 Percent: Middle reliever
10 Percent: Injured
10 Percent: Released/traded/assigned to minors

THE OTHER GUYS

The Vulture isn’t considered a sure thing, even though he was probably the team’s third most-valuable pitcher (after Smoltz and James) on the season and pitched better in the second half. His ERA was 3.61, including 3.50 in his four starts and 3.63 as a reliever. In the second half, he had a 2.63 ERA and he controlled his gopher ball tendencies; after allowing 9 HR before the break he allowed 4 (2 as a starter) afterwards. He also cut his walks in half (18 before, 9 after, in slightly more innings). And he won eight games in the first half and one after. Go figure. I think he’ll have a job of some sort.

Chances
10 Percent: Fifth Starter
50 Percent: Middle relief
20 Percent: Setup man
10 Percent: Injured
10 Percent: Traded

Lance Cormier: Why? It’s basically impossible to find any positives in his record. Well, his ERA as a starter was 4.31, which wouldn’t be so bad except that he was only going five innings, if that, was allowing a homer every seven innings, and allowed an insanely high .333 batting average against. I think he has the Pictures.

Chances
10 Percent: Fifth Starter
20 Percent: Middle Relief
5 Percent: Setup Man
15 Percent: Injured
50 Percent: Traded/Released/Designated For Assignment/Kidnapped by me when he returns to Northport and never seen again

Joey Devine pitched well in his callup (5 1/3 IP in 8 G, 3 H 4 BB 8 K 0 R) but I have little faith in him (he only pitches well when the pressure is off — in spring training, in the minors, once the team is out of it) plus I think that Gene Garber cursed all sidearmers who followed him in a Braves uniform. I would prefer that he stay in the minors.

Chances
50 Percent: AAA
10 Percent: Setup man
20 Percent: Middle relief/righty specialist
10 Percent: Injured
10 Percent: The Braves think he’s a bust and trade him while he still has value

Wayne Franklin: Please.

20 Percent: Minors
5 Percent: Supplementary LOOGY
75 Percent: Released/Killed to protect the herd

As for Peter Moylan, see above on Gene Garber’s curse. Like Devine, he pitched much better in his September callup (2.46 ERA, 4 H 0 BB 6 K in 7 1/3 IP). Peculiarly, he has a huge reverse split: lefties hit .192/.276/.308 against him, normal people .361/.385/.472. That is so atypical of a sidearmer or submariner that I have to think it’s a fluke.

Chances
20 Percent: Middle reliever
50 Percent: Minors
10 Percent: Injured
20 Percent: Traded/released/Joins Midnight Oil tribute band

Chad Paronto was pitching pretty well for a time but then fell victim to overuse, then started not pitching at all, then pitched okay at the end. Not an unusual pattern. I don’t know if he’ll be back, even though his 3.18 ERA for the season was best on the team. (Not counting Wickman, or Phil Stockman’s four innings.)

Chances
35 Percent: Middle relief
15 Percent: Setup man
25 Percent: Traded
15 Percent: Injured
10 Percent: Released/Designated for Assignment