Obviously you have to give Schuerholz credit for trading a utility infielder and getting back the second-most valuable pitcher on the 2005 staff. His 2.55 ERA looks for all the world like a fluke, one his peripheral stats can’t maintain. The only real improvement in his basic stats was that he cut way down on his homers allowed, which helps but doesn’t explain a drop of more than two runs of ERA. His strikeout rate actually went down; his control was a little better once you factor out eight intentional walks. As I’ve said before, he had dramatic splits depending upon the situation, becoming much harder to put the ball in play on when runners were in scoring position:
270 AB with no one on: .278/.359/.433, 37 K 34 BB 6 HR.
236 AB with runners on: .199/.282/.305, 48 K 30 BB 6 HR
124 AB with runners in scoring position: .194/.309/.306, 31 K 23 BB 1 HR
Some of it is certainly hit luck; even the increased strikeout rate can’t explain a .199 batting average against. At the same time, I’m pretty sure that he’s bearing down more and is willing to walk a guy rather than give him something good to hit. It’s not a bad strategy as such. If he can increase his innings and maintain these splits, he can be a valuable pitcher. If he can pitch like he did with runners on all the time, he can be a star. If he can’t increase his innings without losing effectiveness, the indication is that he might be better served in the bullpen, where he might throw 70 innings a year as a closer, going all-out most of the time. I have little doubt about his talents. It’s quite likely that he will pitch better in 2006 but not be as lucky and see his ERA go up. I like him going forward, but I don’t think you can count on him being more than a fourth starter or setup man in 2006.
Good conclusion Mac, I can’t agree with you more on your analysis on Sosa.
Not to go completely off-topic on the first response, but do people here have any feelings on Robinson Tejeda? He’s super-young pitching prospect the Phils brought up last year. He had mild success, poster a solid ERA+ of 127 once we factor in parks, and he’s still only 23.
So has anyone heard anything about him? What are his chances for next year like?
I would like to add that Sosa has only about 46 innings of minor league pitching experience according to Baseball Cube (is it right?!) to go along with his 460 innings of major league pitching experience. This means Sosa’s pitching talent has only barely surfaced. I am really looking forward to see a further improved Sosa for the coming season.
Sosa was converted from the outfield and has been a Rule 5 draft pick twice, so yes, he’s had to do much of his learning in the majors.
I don’t know how many of you clicked through the the link about Jeff Francouer the other day. If not then I suggest that you do.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=80
You can look up players and see how there stats have changed year by year by looking at the graphs. For instance for Sosa you can see that his 2005 K per 9 IP was in line with historic 2002/3 levels – it was 2004 which was the abberation.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1228&position=P&page=1&type=full
Likewise, analysing the WHIP http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1228&position=P&page=6&type=full and you might conclude that Sosa has been on a better trend, particularly in the latter half of the season.
Looking at these you certainly don’t get the richness that Mac’s analysis gives, but it is interesting perspective.
I’m also optimistic about Sosa’s prospects for development. He’s young, still learning how to pitch, and successful. A great find for JS.
What a change from last year:
http://www.bravesbeat.com/bravesjournal/archives/2005/03/braves_send_gre.html#comments
Repeat after me – JS and staff know pitching!
Brilliant. Well glad we were wrong on that one last year!
I saw Tejeda play in a Red Barons game last year and he looked pretty good. I don’t know if it’s his usual performance, but he got a lot of groundballs and worked quickly.