Nielsen Media Markets, National League East:
Rank City Name
1 …. New York
4 …. Philadelphia
8 …. Washington
9 …. Atlanta
17 … Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
Sucks being the Marlins, huh?
The Mets have to share their market, of course, but New York is so enormous (bigger than #3 Chicago and Philly combined) that there’s plenty left over after the Yankees get first dibs. By all rights, they should be a dominant team, but there’s something wrong in Flushing and has been for about fifteen years now. It goes beyond the general manager; these change every couple of years, but the sickness stays on. The Mets’ problems are typified by:
- Overpaying for free agents in their thirties.
- Panicky, fan-like trade moves.
- Inability to recognize the team’s actual strengths and weaknesses, exacerbated by a home park that depresses every hitter’s batting numbers.
- Need to be seen as doing something.
- Constant self-comparisons to the Yankees and Braves.
- Turning on the team’s best players when they can’t single-handedly carry the club, which isn’t possible in baseball.
- Giving up on their top prospects if they don’t immediately set the world on fire.
This past off-season, for example… The Mets brought in Pedro Martinez, who had a great year, but to get him they had to commit to a long-term contract that will pay him a lot of money over the next few seasons, when he’s certain to decline. They brought in Carlos Beltran as well (seemingly mostly because the Yankees had been interested in him before turning elsewhere) even though they had a highly similar player in Mike Cameron. When Beltran predictably disappointed, because he’s not the hitter he looked like in postseason (nobody is) and because he was moving to a par that killed him, people turned on him. That’s the Mets for you. The franchise isn’t going to turn itself around until they realize that you can’t build a ballclub overnight.
The Phillies probably have about as much talent as the Braves, but it isn’t as well distributed. Ed Wade is gone, but two giant contracts he gave out — David Bell’s and Jim Thome’s — remain. The inexcusible Bell has one year to go on his deal, getting over $4 million a season to play badly and to force the trade of Placido Polanco. Bell was actually good in 2004, but was one of the worst players in baseball in 2003 and not a whole lot better in 2005. Unquestionably, the Phillies would have made the playoffs this past season if they’d gotten a decent performance from third base, and maybe would have in 2003.
The Thome deal was maybe justifiable at the time. But even then, it was likely to become an albatross by the end. He still has three years to go, but looks done now. He’s untradeable unless the Phillies eat most of what he’s owed ($12.5 million in 2006, $14 million each of the next two years, then a $3 million buyout). As it is, the Phillies are looking at moving Ryan Howard to left field. Howard would be a defensive disaster, but also would force the trade of Pat Burrell, though the latter should be a free agent after the 2006 season anyway.
Whoever is Wade’s replacement is going to have to deal with the Thome mess, and also figure out the pitching staff. Wagner may leave as a free agent, but Ryan Madson seems ready to step in. More troubling is a starting rotation where nobody’s been a consistent performer and most have had injury problems. The ballpark doesn’t help.
The Natspos aren’t likely to reap the full benefits of their market for some time. Major League Baseball stabbed them in the back, letting Peter Angelos run off with most of the cable money. And, of course, they still don’t have an owner or a real ballpark. The team performed over its head last year, something I don’t expect to continue. Jim Bowden is still pretty dumb. In 2007, they’ll probably have a real operation and a real GM, and the big league club will be a real big league club.
But that’s just the first step. The magnificent player-development system that this franchise built during the 1980s is no more, torn down and sold for parts over the last decade. Rebuilding it will take time and skill and it is not a sure thing. They need good minor league teams, they need good minor league managers and coaches and instructors, they need scouts. It will take a long time to do, and they don’t have the tradition to work within to ease the way. Building a minor league system is hard, and Washington is starting almost from the ground up like an expansion team. Consider the last four expansion teams. Only the Marlins have a really successful minor league organization. The D-Backs have a decent one. The Rays have produced a few good players, but not nearly enough, and the Rockies still don’t know what they’re doing.
The Marlins have a couple of decisions to make. They need a manager, first off. Replacing McKeon, a fine manager who wore out his welcome, won’t be easy. They also need to decide who the core of this team is. Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado, Dontrelle Willis, and… Beyond that, I don’t know. The Marlins are not a young team. Other than Cabrera, the only regular who will be under 30 next year is Juan Pierre, who will be 28 and had a bad year. The team as a whole is ready to decline, though Jeremy Hermida should be a star, giving them a third bellweather hitter. Delgado is going to be 34 and should go Thome soon. They need to unload Mike Lowell to let Cabrera move to third, but that might not be doable.
The Marlins wanted to build through pitching, and it worked the one time. This year, they still had three excellent starters, but A. J. Burnett won’t be back, and Josh Beckett is a perennial question mark with his injury concerns. Beyond Willis and Beckett, the staff looks a lot like the lineup — a couple of unproven kids who could be good and a lot of old guys. The Marlins have very few players in their prime years.
The Braves should repeat unless whoever replaces Wade is a genius.
Outside of Cashman, who are the leading canidates to replace Wade?
This should be a fun little thread…
Up here in NYC, I haven’t heard anything other than Cash to Philly. (Most reputable NYC media sources now put it at 50-50 that he stays; whereas a week ago, he was out de door…) If he takes the Phils gig, he can stay close to home, go to a team that has some money & he walks right into a decent situation player-wise.
The other big rumor is Joe Girardi to manage the Marlins (or Tampa).
Heard a funny proposal this weekend in the NY Post (a neverending source of amusement): Yanks should trade Sheffield to Philly for Jim Thome.
Does the Post hate the Yankees for some reason?
Mac,
Another very thoughtful, very useful analysis. I hope you are right, but I am struck that the Braves’ margin for error is getting very thin. As I posted elsewhere, the Phillies have a very similar team talent-wise. The saving grace, as you mention, is the idiot contracts. I calculated $29.5 million next year on people they don’t need (Thome), could replace easily (Lieberthal, Cormier), or must replace (Bell). Still, if they get someone who understands sunk costs, they have a lot to work with.
Ditto the Mets.
The Sheffield for Thome idea reminds me that three years ago, when Sheffield was still a Brave, I told a friend–a Phillies fan–who was so pumped about signing Jim Thome that they money would be far better spent on the same-aged Sheffield. This was not based on statistical analysis–just looking at their bodies and the (one of a kind) way Sheffield attacks a pitched baseball. Observations seems to have held up well….
Anyhow, I am as down as the next person about the way the Braves’ season ended; but I was into every game all year, and remain impressed with the team’s focus and efficiency. Your rundown on their competitors puts this into stark relief.
Mac, good analysis–once again. I agree with W. Diehl that the Braves’ margin is shrinking (though the 2 game difference at the end overstates the problem), but given the contract situation (which you aptly describe) and the productivitiy of the Braves’ farm system the future remains relatively bright.
In addition, we should never underestimate the capacity for a team like the Mets (or the Phillies) to shoot themselves in the foot. For instance, I hate (not really) to think how bright the Mets’ future would look if they had not foolishly traded away Scott Kazmir.
Mac,
Great analysis overall. My only problem being that you wrote off the mets due to 15 years of futility (in which they did make two playoff appearances and one WS appearance). They are going to continue to increase payroll, especially when their answer to the YES network picks up. I know that spending doesn’t equal success, but they actually have a compitent GM in Omar Minaya, who kept the Expos surprisingly competetive for about five years. Aside from that, I expect Furcal to be a Met next year. With Wright and Reyes they already have one of, if not THE best left infield in baseball. Beltran is bound to be better in 06, Reyes and Wright should produce, Cameron and Traschel will get full seasons and the pitching staff in general is pretty deep. Their only major weakness is their bullpen, which could be upgraded easily with this market and their big bucks. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t stand these guys (I live in upstate NY), but they are certainly the biggest threat to dethrone us in 2006.
I’m not saying that the Mets didn’t have some success, but even during that period they were doing the things they are now. The 2000 Mets won despite throwing money at has-beens, like $5 million for Shutdown Bell. They gave Melvin Mora to the Orioles in order to get three months of Mike Bordick, (.260/.321/.365). That sort of thing.
Great analysis Mac. Stephen and W. Diehl, the margin of error for the Braves will always be slim because we are talking about a $80M payroll team competing against $100M payroll teams. If the Phillis and the Mets start make smart decision, the Braves would be in trouble. At the meantime, I think the Braves should be safe for at least a few more season because the extra payroll the Phillis and the Mets have go to mediocare or often injuried players such as Thome, Benson, Zambrano, etc.
The Phillis decided to keep Rollins at the market price, and the Braves are likely heading toward the opposite direction with Furcal. We will see how that will work out as this represents another $10M difference between the two teams.
“Howard would be a defensive disaster, but also would force the trade of Pat Burrell, though the latter should be a free agent after the 2006 season anyway.”
Mac, I assume you were refering to the latter as Burrell. If that is the case and I’m not misreading the post, I’m curious as to why you are saying Burrell is a FA after 2006. From what I see, he;s under contract until 2008 and I don’t see a buyout anywhere. Am I missing something?
For what it’s worth about the Mets, every time I hear GM Omar Minaya on the radio he talks about the “branding of the team,” and how certain player commitments are part of the “branding of our club.” I rarely hear him discuss how he’s making his team better.
But as someone mentioned above, the new Met Network (or whatever they’re going to call it) relies heavily on fan perception–especially in its first year. As long as Met fans hang onto some kind of hope (false hope?) that the Mets are inches away from genuine success they can rake in ad & cable dough. How wisely they spend it on players is another story.
I don’t doubt that Minaya’s trying to improve the team–winning is usually the best way to attract fans. (And don’t forget that until recently winning Met teams always outdrew winning Yankee teams.) But when discussing the Mets, the current external forces must always be considered. They are in constant competition with the Yankees, and no matter what you think about its sometimes ridiculous content, YES Network has been a big success. The Mets see a working financial model there, a money grab that’s kinda perfect.
And one more item as it relates to the Mets/Braves “rivalry,” and I think it’s a big one: They expect to lose & the Braves expect to win. That goes a long way–15 years to be exact.
Are you sure? I didn’t see that they’d signed him to an extension after his free agent eligibility comes up. If so, then it’s even a dumber move.
In all fairness, I don’t think anyone saw Melvin Mora’s 2004 success coming. He was almost thirty when the Mets traded him, and had never really put up good numbers except one year with the Tide and one year in Jackson.
Mac, the following information is from http://www.mlb4u.com/phi.html:
“Pat Burrell: signed 6-year deal worth 50M in 2003- + he will make in 2003- 1M and a 1.5M Signing Bonus, in 2004- 4M, in 2005- 7M, in 2006- 9.5M, in 2007- 13M and in 2008- 14M- + he can earn award bonuses: 100K for MVP award, 75K for finishing second in MVP voting and 50K for finishing third Agent: Greg Genske Service Time: 4.131”
So, yes, Ed Wade deserves recognition for the Braves success. Besides this, he handed out that 5 yr-$40M deal to Rollins, 3 yr-$24M deal to Lieberthal before 2004, 2 yr-$6M deal to Cormier before this season, and 4 yr-$23M deal to Wolf before 2003. Wade deserves some MVP consideration…
I like this team and don’t think it needs to change much. Sign Furcal and Farnsworth. Move Thompson and Estrada to make it posible, Marte takes Franco’s spot. Keep rest of team the same except release Jordon. Smoltz, Hudson, Sosa,Ramirez, and Davies as starters Rookies James, Lerew, McBride, Boyer, and Devine in Relief add Farnworth in and an old veteran like Powell or Reuter in there.
I think our biggest threat next year will be the Phillies; with a competent GM and a little bit of tweaking, they will be in a very strong position. They almost won the wild card this year with the imbecilic Ed Wade at the helm, so if they get somebody with maybe 15% more brain cells they could be a problem. I would be willing to bet that Brian Cashman winds up in Philly or maybe with Washington. This depends on the new ownership, of course, but we will probably get to see what he can do with less money and no meddling boss. Is he smart or is he just a yes-man?
I must address a comment I saw in another thread about wanting Renteria over Furcal. This caused what I like to call a “WTF moment.” Renteria’s career OPS is something like .730 and he has never been a good defender. This year he made 30 errors and did very little at the plate. It still boggles my mind that Theo Epstein, a very smart guy with such a deep love of statistical analysis that he has an assistant prepare scouting reports for him for his interoffice fantasy football draft (the Fighting Fish Tacos, no joke) gave this guy a 4/40 contract. Wanting him over Furcal? What?
Addendum: I know we’re sick of Leo Mazzone speculation, but this Washington Post article makes me more than a little concerned. Everybody has been ignoring the Baltimore aspect of this (except me, haha) but they sound quite serious and they are willing to pony up. Add in the hometown/close friend factor and it seems more and more possible that Leo may leave.
And I didn’t know he was only making $150,000. That’s chump change.
As long as Bobby is still the manager, Leo will be with the Braves. So, the Yankees or the O’s should hope for Bobby to retire soon.
I’d seen reports as early as 2002, when the Mets tried to snake Mazzone away, that the Braves had raised Mazzone up near $400k. And I’m pretty sure I’ve read of him getting a raise since then.
Considering how much money Leo saves for the Braves, he is worth every single penny of that $400k. I think the Braves are letting Leo to explore the market value and they will basically match any offer if it’s not unreasonable. If Mel Stottlemyre makes around $400K, I am sure the Braves will match it.
Well, all I can say is the Braves like to deal players to the Yankees (or at least let them go to wear the pin-stripes without putting up a fight) so it would almost be a reunion of sorts for him to walk into the locker room and see some of his old buddies! LMAO J/K
Seriously, I don’t think the Braves will let Mazzone go without a fight. They realize what he has done and this is his chnace to work with some young guys, as he supposedly enjoys, and see them develop under his tutoring. Looks like he would welcome the challenge!!!!! These teams should check back when Bobby retires!
Just found this in the Atlanta Constitution. Looks like they have been talking for several days and according to his attorney, he may be looking to make a move. Torre specifically asked for him so we all know what that means with the bottomless pockets of Gerogie Boy!
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1005/19mazzone.html
According to the AJC, Leo only makes $200 K.
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1005/19mazzone.html
If Mazzone does go, we should trade Jorge Sosa immediately.
I just got finished using Nate Silver’s technique on evaluating Net Present Value and I have a question for everyone.
First, do you think it’s possible to get Brian Giles for 4y/$30mil? Second, if you think it is possible, would you want him?
With that contract, his value is about even based on his PECOTA forecast up until 2009. We would gain $606,100 on him over the life of his deal with that contract.
From that ajc article:
“Like other Braves coaches, Mazzone works under one-year contracts. The team won’t do multi-year deals with coaches.”
JESUS CHRIST MAKE A FUCKING EXCEPTION
I can’t believe they have Cox and JS signed to multi-year deals, but they won’t sign the man who’s possibly the single most important person (in terms of wins) in the organization to a multi-year deal because of some retarded line in the sand. Have fun penis fencing with a losing record next year, dumbasses.
This Leo rumor thing happened few years back also, and Leo is still wearing the Braves uniform. I don’t think we should be too concerned about this. The media is so worked up on this because it involves the Yankees. To be honest, I do not believe anything will happen except Leo resigning with the Braves. Don’t be fooled by the media guys and girls.
Michael-
But YOU DID come on here & make something up so don’t get get mad at me for STARTING THIS WITH ME…I didn’t even know who you were until you came on here and created this problem.
I guess I am unsure WHY some folks feel the need to come on here and actually get into something personal. When I argue with people here on Baseball matters, like the merit of Cox as a playoff manager, it shouldn’t be personal.
And for the record to EVERYONE on Braves Journal: I have met Bobby Cox and he’s a very very nice man. This isn’t PERSONAL…this me the Braves fan tired of going home in October.
As for Leo Mazzone, I wish he would stay but that appears LESS & LESS likely…apparently, he’s vastly underpaid by the Braves and only on 1 year contracts every year. WHY? Has the guy not had a 14 yr. track record to back it up?
Anyway, this latest article appears doom & gloom for the Braves. I just PRAY we have contigency plan:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1005/19mazzone.html?imw=Y
That article does not sound good.
I have heard rumors (from decent but not great sources) that all is not cherry in the organization between the coaches and front office, as it once was. I wonder if that might have caused Leo to change his tune. I never got the feeling that Cox was as excited about the rookies as everyone else was. I wonder it there is some philosophical difference between JS and Cox factions that came to a head this year.
What contegency plan could there possibly be? Mazzone is irreplaceable.
Leo has an attorney who has the job of getting the best possible deal for Leo, and part of that is getting some press coverage. The Braves will at least get the opportunity to match whatever the Yankees or Orioles offer. Unless there is some serious hidden friction we don’t know about, I have a hard time believing that Leo and the Braves won’t come to some kind of agreement to keep him here at least until Bobby is ready to retire.
Mac
dugout dollars has the same figures for Burrell.
I have to wonder. Did anyone read the long article by Jayson Stark for ESPN on Mazzone.
Conspicuously missing in the love fest of anecdotes and testimonials is anything from Bobby Cox. Hmmmmmm.
I wouldn’t make too much of that, Johnny. Bobby tends to stay away from the press, aside from doing his pre-game radio show.
I agree with JoeyT, we forget they’ve been through this before and at this stage in his career as a pitching coach it would be foolish for Leo’s agent not to try and get him a salary bump before he hangs it up down the road. If it happens, it won’t be this year. Leo seems to be a man of habit and is comfortable in the Braves setting.
Great analysis mac and great comments all around.
I hear the Marlins may be disassembling once again, but how do you unload a big contract like Delgado’s? He may have another year or two, but who knows? It will be interesting to see who is at the helm there and if that person can keep Cabrera interested.
Give Minaya credit for trying, but he is way overpaying for some pretty marginal stuff. If I recall, he (and his crosstown buddies) inflated the price on mediocre pitching with the contract to Benson last off-season. I suppose if one has a bottomless bank account, one can do that. Interesting young team with Reyes and Wright as building blocks, but the rest of the team looks old and inconsistent. And there’s the tragedy of Cliff Floyd. I always wonder what kind of numbers he would have put up if he had remained healthy.
As long as Bowden is running the Nats, I am not worried. The Guzman deal builds his reputation as a guy who simply does not get it. In a Minaya redux, when he was running the club, they shed quality youngsters (especially Sizemore and Lee) under the excuse that “we are going to be contracted anyway.” So thanks Omar, you, along with Selig, put this franchise on the slow road back.
I think the Phils may enter 2006 as division faves. Ryan Howard reminds me of Fred McGriff (could you actually imagine Fred McGriff trying to play LF?). I think Utley is a stud-in-waiting. Rollins a bit overrated, but still a very good player. Abreu is the best kept secret in baseball. Solid bullpen in 2005 with free agency questions and starting pitchers who “show up.” Subtract from that the on-going presence of Bell. I am not ordinarily a stat head, but how-oh-how could the Phils have signed this guy to the contract they did? Intangibles? Puh-fricking-leeze! Everything Bell has ever done smacks of terminal mediocrity (His career OPS is less than his father’s, which is less than his grandfather’s. Note to scouts: Do not sign David or Mike Bell’s kids.)
I think where the Phillies really improve is that this will be their second year under the re-incarnation of Danny Murtaugh in the person of Charlie Manuel. Charlie probably couldn’t pour piss out of a shoe if the directions were written on the heel, but he is such a far cry from Bowa that it probably took the team a year to get used to that. (Play relaxed? What’s that?) They have some key pieces on the market and they will never come close to getting value-for-value if they move Thome, but I like their core of players.
With regards to Leo & the Yankees, it FEELS like this may happen. Especially with Torre returning; Torre has the same kind of ‘demeanor’ and commanded respect from players Cox has and I think Torre is one of the only ohter manaers Leo would consider working with. He can look at the kind of mutual respect Torre & Stottlemyre had and feels that if he goes to New York and now that Torre is back, that would be a fit similar to what he’s had in Atlanta.
Plus, in New York, Leo probably also feels A) they will always spend money on plenty of pitching for him to play with B) he will get more guaranteed years then the series of 1 year contracts he gets from the Braves (which makes no sense by the way for a proven commidity like Leo) and C) he may just want a new challenge though I don’t know if Leo will love his face all over 5 newspapers a day everytime a Yankee has a bad start.
The bottom line is unless the Braves match the financials (and the cheap bastards at AOL/Time Warner won’t) or give him multiple years (which the Yankees will also do), I think Mazzone is now a Yankee.
This is a far bigger kick to the gut than Sheffield.
Again, I hope there’s a contigency pan…sounds like a plot to the new SF series on CBS, “Threshold”. And instead of aliens, the Yankees have taken over Leo’s body.
I have taken great pride these previous years at the resiliency of this Braves team. We continue to watch big names walk away year after year and still we are right there at the end of the day. Losing Furcal would be this years version of Drew or Sheffield. No matter how much value he has, I still think we can put together a team that will be better than last year. The Mazzone case is a different case. We don’t typically lose coaches. Especially one as valuable as Leo. However, even if he does go I am confident that with the right pieces in the bullpen and rotation we can get back to the World Series.
BOLD PREDICTION:
If Mazzone splits, the Braves’ record next year is somewhere between 79-83 and 81-81.
Rob Neyer seems to think that Mazzone’s atty is just extracting the best offer for him, then he’ll take it to the Braves, who will match it (under the threat of Mazzone leaving).
If that’s the case, it seems pretty ass for TW to make Mazzone jump through this many hoops to get a raise.
TW, if you don’t screw this up, and he’s still in Atlanta this year, TRY TO GET HIM TO SIGN A MULTI-YEAR DEAL!
from NY Daily News:
Mazzone makes a base salary of only about $250,000 with the Braves, but it’s supplemented with his weekly radio show, endorsements and an annual playoff share.
Mazzone has been the Braves’ pitching coach for 16 seasons, but some believe he is ready to leave now more than ever. “I think he’s reached a point in his career where it’s probably in his best interest to seriously look around at other opportunities,” Reale said.
Reale said he has been in constant contact with Yankees president Randy Levine, who is handling the talks because general manager Brian Cashman’s future is up in the air.
Again, no matter what ‘factors’ people can attach to any situation as to why a guy stays or goes, at the END OF THE DAY, it’s money.
Sure, the Royals could offer double the salary of the Braves and Leo wouldn’t go because he doesn’t have a chance to win. But the Yankees? He will ALWAYS HAVE A CHANCE AND ALWAYS BE GIVEN PLENTY OF PITCHING.
You know, it’s EERY…I just had a spine tingling moment.
It was about 11 months ago when the Yankees SIGNED Jaret Wright to a 4 year deal. As Braves fans, we all fell on the floor laughing at the Yankees for this. And further that by the fact that Dan Patrick of ESPN said what we all ALREADY KNEW…”unless the Yankees are bringing Leo Mazzone with Jaret Wright, I don’t get this move?”
Well, how horrifcly prophetic was Dan Patrick. it appears the Yankees are (1 year later) bringing Mazzone in to fix, among other pitchers, Jaret Wright (for the 2nd time now).
God…and to think a year ago I was LAUGHING at the Yankees.
I also agree that if Mazzone goes, we are an 81 win team at BEST and our stranglehold on the NL East is finally over. The yearly ESPN.com predictions of the Braves finally losing a division will finally be true, if Mazzone leaves.
Now, more then ever, SOMEONE needs to take the Braves away from the DEVIL organization know as TimeWarner that continues to tie the Braves hands up in terms of financials and Leo Mazzone being allowed to speak to the Yankees is the ultimate kick in the stomach.
Dear Leo,
If you stay in Atlanta, and if it will help your endorsement income, I will buy every product you hawk, be it the DEPEND ADULT UNDERGARMENT, the TRIAL-SIZE DOVE BAR, the TUCKS MEDICATED PAD, the PERDUE WONDERCHICKEN, or the WHISPER-QUIET MAYTAG DISHMASTER.
Sincerely,
JoeyT
If the Braves really wanted Leo back, I don’t understand why they wouldn’t have tried to resign him before the price goes up. What sense does it make to have Leo run the price up and then try to match? It sounds to me like Leo wants to leave–whether it’s because he’s tired of Atlanta or disharmony in the organization. And it sounds like the team isn’t that concerned about bringing him back. Which makes me think that, either there is some problem in the organization or that JS and BC are getting ready to ride off into the sunset pretty soon.
Seriously? 81 at best? I mean, Mazzone leaving would be a serious blow, but we are certainly better than an 81-win-at-best team. And calm the freak down, Alex…nothing’s happened yet.
No doubt Leo has value in terms of wins per year, but is he ALONE the difference between perennial division winner and being no better than a .500 team?
I find that a hard pill to swallow. Maybe it’s just me but I think if we get the right pieces in the bullpen and another solid starter, we will be just fine. Besides I don’t think we’d replace Mazzone with chopped liver.
JC, I was always under the impression (just from watching) that Leo was having a harder time with the younger players than Bobby was. But who knows what it was like in the manager’s office?
Stu, I have to agree with you on this one. To pull a line out of the late 80’s, take a chill pill about this team being the frickin royals if leo leaves. If Leo left, I don’t think it will be a sign of the apocalypse.
If Leo leaves, the only things the Braves will pull out of the late 80s are their win-loss records.
I read that Pendelton backed out of his interview with the Dodgers and it occurred to me that perhaps Cox is ready to retire. TP is told he will replace Cox so he backs away from the Dodgers, and Mazzone knows and so is looking around too. I don’t believe that, but the thought did pop into me head.
Back to reality, if Mazzone leaves, I’ll wish him well. Maybe he’s just ready for something new after 16 years. It will hurt, but hopefully the Braves will replace him with someone who will continue the system. As long as Cox is managing, I think the Braves run will continue.
50, I wouldn’t disagree with you on that. In fact, Leo was a bit more pissy about all of his pitchers this year. I mean, he basically came out and said Horacio sucks on a few occasions. And, my goodness, did he ever rip Kolb about walking guys. But, I did notice Cox also being a little more downbeat as well this year. However, compared to most organizations there comments sound like high praises.
I do know, however (from a reliable source) that Leo really went out of his way to work with the rookies, even the guys who came up after everything was basically in the bag. In most organizations, these guys don’t get to meet anyone higher up than the bullpen coach. Leo worked with these guys before and after games. That’s why guys from Smoltz to Rocker sing his praises. He’s treats all pitchers according to there differing skills. And he works with everyone. I think one of the most interesting aspects of the studies I’ve done is the fact that pitcher do worse after they leave. This speaks volumes to be about the personal attention he (and others in the organization) give during the season. It’s not one lesson (down and away) or a throwing program. It’s something pitcher can’t take with them.
Andy,
That is an astute observation. I’m getting a bad vibe right now. Anyone else? I’m even more prone to panic than Mac.
Pendleton did say that he wanted to stay close to home . . . .
Do y’all really think that Leo makes THAT much of a difference? I know, I know. Sosa, Burkett, Wright, Remlinger et al. Then there are Chen, Marquis, Schmidt et al.
Before y’all start yelling at me I understand that Leo is a great pitching coach and I don’t want him to leave, but the apocalypse is upon us if he leaves? Really?
If you want a reason to be concerned,here is a list of “impressive alumni” of former Braves farm products pitching for other teams in 2004. From Shanks:
Schmidt (yes, he’s good)
Marquis (average)
Glavine (good, but developed long ago, partially by Leo in the minors)
Millwood (average and overrated until his stellar, which 2005 may be a sign of excellence to come)
Odalis Perez (average)
Darrell May (this is where the list starts to get scary…remember these are the good guys)
Rob Bell (see I told you it was scary)
Bruce Chen (average, may have taught Horacio how to give up the long ball)
Jung Bong (uh…I just won’t say anything)
The point is, while the Braves have a great reputation for developing pitchers, it’s not deserved. I would not call that list impressive, at least in a positive direction. Yes, some guys from the farm system do end up as ML pitchers, but it doesn’t seem to be some spectacular track record. Just look to the 2005 rotation. Only one member of the staff (HoRam) was developed by the Braves, and he stinks. You might count Smoltz, but he was with the Tigers, and tutored by Leo in Richmond. Not even Schuerholz trusts his farm system to develop pitching. He gets it on the outside, and gives it to Leo. Even if you want to argue with my assessment of some of the guys above, that list is too short to give me any comfort.
A team intelligent enough to hire Leo Mazzone as it’s pitching coach 16 years ago will replace him with someone of quality. Leo leaves, we will survive. To think we would revert back to the late 1980’s in terms of record is absolutely laughable.
LEOH SUX! HEIR MIKE MADDUCKS!
If you want a reason to be concerned,here is a list of “impressive alumni” of former Braves farm products pitching for other teams in 2004. From Shanks:
The farm system produced Adam Wainwright who became J.D. Drew. The farm system produced Dan Meyer who became Tim Hudson. So just in the past two years the farm system produced young pitchers who turned into (in a way) star players. Yes, this is truly a problem area we need to worry about.
Developing shiny pieces to use in trades has been a strength of the Braves farm system for a long time. The fact that the teams on the other end of the trades haven’t reaped the benefits of the shiny pieces they have received doesn’t really feel like a negative to me.
The negative isn’t that other teams got jobbed, it’s that the Braves farm system has not done a really good job of developing pitchers.
Ok, Stu, since you live to disagree, here I go again being right to your wrong.
You disagree about the Braves winning 81 games next year, at BEST?
Hmmm…simple arithmetics….how many games did Jorge Sosa win this year? Subtract Jorge Sosa and you have a win total in the 79 or so range.
Thank you, AGAIN Leo Mazzone, for once again creating wine out of water.
And for thos ewho actually believe that ‘things will just continue the same winning ways’ with just Cox instead of Mazzone ARE LIVING IN A DREAMLAND. Mazzone is a far far bigger reason why we have made 14 straight Octobers. NOT COX.
If you think of all the crap pitchers (some of which have been listed today) that Mazzone has gotten to perform well, but no wait, according to MOST OF YOU, that’s all COX’S doing.
Jaret Wright
Russ Ortiz
Jorge Sosa
Greg McMichael
Mike Remlinger
Chris Hammond
John Burkett
Andy Ashby (sort of)
Kevin Millwood
Alejandro Pena
Juan Berenguer
Juan Cruz
Ray King
Steve Karsay
Kerry Ligtenberg
Denny Neagle
…and on and on and on…
Now some of these pitchers have performed well before or after Atlanta for periods of time but Leo made all of these guys better then they are, and some, like Millwood, are still living off that influence.
On the other hand, our offense has always been average to below average.
The bottom line is this:
LEO MAZZONE IS THE #1 REASON THE BRAVES HAVE WON 14 STRAIGHT DIVISION TITLES, END OF FREAKING STORY.
Again, all the vultures on here who hate me anyway can attack me for defending the best pitching coach in Baseball but the streak of division title will not continue with Cox and no Mazzone unless they find another pitching coach who’s as genius as Mazzone is.
The negative isn’t that other teams got jobbed, it’s that the Braves farm system has not done a really good job of developing pitchers.
I guess I don’t get that. If Adam Wainwright doesn’t work out, isn’t that the Cards fault? Or just more evidence that the Braves system doesn’t produce quality pitchers? To me the obvious answer is the Cards, but it seems like many want to pin it on the Braves even after they have lost possession of a pitcher.
JC, I can’t disagree with your assessment either. Bobby looked like he was sitting on a porcupine all year.
I’ve always had an adage that “you can’t bet on young pitching, but you can’t bet against it either.” One of the things that the whole Leo program has done is that it has, and JC has pointed this out, “elevated” guys. Rookies have been sprinkled in here and there, but it has been the solid foundation of Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux combined with the annual reclamation project or two that have made it all work so well. So up until the last couple of years, we really haven’t had to depend on the farm to produce. We get a Reistma for two guys. Farnsworth for two guys. Hollandsworth for two guys. Etc. Etc.
But now we need the guys and it’s going to be hard to replicate our success if we can’t develop guys and soon. We have one more year of Thomson. (thanks to the Mets giving Benson half of Ft. Knox, the chance of getting guys like Thomson cheap after 2006 is remarkably slim). Smoltz hopefully will be able to go a couple more. We don’t know how much we have left with Hampton. Hudson for three more (if he is still pitching effectively when the option year rolls around). Ramirez for not much longer unless he develops some consistency and an “out” pitch.
So someone from the Lerew, James, Davies wave is going to have to come through in 2006. And after that, guys from the Harrison, Cuevas, Parr wave better be right behind them.
I have always thought that Leo’s magic is worked through simplifying the game. Bobby contributes to that as well. Throw your fastball for quality strikes. Low-and-away usually keeps the ball in the park. Trust your defense. And we’re not going to yell at you if you follow directions and still get thrashed. Bobby still can’t seem to get the whole bullpen rotation down, but he really knows how to keep pitchers’ minds at ease. Leo is a mechanical wizard and also good for the psyche. He will be missed if he goes.
I don’t think Bobby and Leo will leave in the same year. If that happens, we are screwed. But it will happen some time; they won’t live forever, and eventually, they will want to move on and spend their twilight years (okay, sounds a bit morbid, but I am only 18) relaxing with family, going to Antigua, running a dude ranch, etc. We have to prepare ourselves for that day when it comes and realize that this success, whether or not we think there’s a curse in only being 1/14 or not, is not going to be around forever, and maybe not much longer. JS will move on. Smoltz will retire. Chipper will break down. Marcus will likely wind up in California at some point. Some rookies will be sold for parts. And everything we’ve taken for granted the last few years will be gone.
I don’t mean to wax poetic (well, maybe I do), but my general point is that none of this is going to last, so we need to enjoy it while we can. That’s just how life works.
*climbs off soapbox*
And I have no idea what that had to do with anything anybody else was saying previously, I just felt like saying it.
alex r, I’m not trying to take stu’s spot, but I have a hard time saying jorge sosa is another one of leo’s gems. Sosa has great stuff, but he didn’t exactly do much of anything in the bible of Leo. I fear he used more luck than actual knowledge from Leo. I would think he may have driven Leo more nuts than any other pitcher (except Kolbus)this year.
Yeah I think you can argue with some of the names on Alex’s list for sure. Sosa doesn’t seem especially well coached to me. Ortiz was the same pitcher here as he was in San Fran and started to come unglued with us. Millwood just seems like a genuinly good pitcher. Ray King and Steve Karsay were basically the same with us as they were with everybody else. I have no idea how you can make a list like that and not start with Damain Moss.
But still there is no denying that Leo ability to coax productive seasons out of has-beens and never-will-bes has been impressive. Fixing Mike Hampton for a while was pretty impressive. Thomson was better here than he’d been anywhere else. Unfortunately until someone writes a book, there really no way to know how much is Bobby, Leo, or JS.
Haven’t Bobby and JS both worked in other organizations? It seems like how they performed there could be a bit of a hint.
Who replaces Leo now? Do we have a guy in the minors who is a student of Mazzoni?
Look at a Sosa-pitched game from 2004, and any of his starts from 2005, and you’ll see a huge difference. For the Rays, he just threw hard and hoped. Mazzone got him to take 3-4mph off his fastball in order to locate it away. Then, when he had runners on base, he could reach back for a little extra they weren’t expecting: when you see 92 earlier in the game, 96 comes as a surprise.
The longer he stays with Mazzone, and the more he absorbs from him, the better he will be. If he is separated from Mazzone or stops listening to him for longer than a couple pitches, he’ll get shelled.
I say we sign Leo to a two year deal and give Bobby Cox and JS an extension for another year into the 2007 season.
Leo talks a lot with Don Sutton and the bring ole Don down to work with pitchers some. I wonder if he will be a canidate?
FYI – Joe Girardi took the Marlins job.
If I win the Powerball tonight, I will pay Leo’s sallery to stay as a Brave. Hey Leo, 2 year 4 million sound ok?
Look at a Sosa-pitched game from 2004, and any of his starts from 2005, and you’ll see a huge difference.
I guess I’ll have to take your word for it. I didn’t catch a whole lot of the ’04 Rays games.
nyb,
I didn’t watcha Rays game either to know the difference between 2004 Jorge Sosa and the 2005 Jorge Sosa is mor about Leo Mazzone then luck. How can it NOT be?
I mean, here’s a pitcher who’s never been better then a 5 ERA and comes to Atlanta and ends the year with a 2 something ERA…and that’s just dumb luck when on that same team is the acknowledged BEST pitching coach in Baseball?
C’mon do the math…Sosa is just another in the long line of successful Mazzone reclamation projects…end of story.
I can’t believe anyone is even arguing about Leo Mazzone.
Next thing you know, someone will come up with the bright idea that Mazzone’s the reason the Braves have “only” won 1 WS title.
I know that this is a forum, which thrives on conversation/dissent, but you’d think we can agree on a few things, like the earth is not flat and Mazzone’s contribution to this great run has been tremendous, perhaps inalienable.
How can it NOT be?
The improvement in defense, pitch calling, defensive positioning, and pitcher utilization in moving from the D-Rays to the Braves helps. Getting away from the stench of losing that haunts that orginzation probably didn’t hurt either. But yeah, I’m willing to say Leo played a part too. I withdraw my objection to Sosa being on your list.
Maybe Leo is doing this to get more money? I am sure that John SMoltz may have a little talk with management when Leo is given an offer by the Yankees.
I love Leo and he is the best in the buisness, but in reality he can be replaced by someone who could turn out to be just as good, if not better. I have to give Bobby credit, the Braves always have really good coaches up and down the system. The orgainization has a philosophy on pitching so I say we bring someone up form the minors to be the pitching coach. While Leo has had a huge influence, the organization (Booby Cox, JS, and minor league staff) have all ahd large inputs into the pitching staff.
For those who need scientific evidence of Mazzone’s effect on pitching on Atlanta see JC’s study on sabernomics.com.
It cannot be just luck that a good number of the reclamations, has beens, and never weres have pitched so well in Atlanta. But does it have to be Mazzone? Can it not be a club philosophy? The NE Patriots of baseball? The men at the top will be the same, the scouting system will be the same, the core group of players that are the REAL reason for Atlanta’s success will be the same. And remember that the Braves don’t just do this with pitchers. They have turned over the team to the tune of 10 players per year on average during the 14 year streak. Some have worked out, some haven’t. I’m sure that if one went to the trouble we would find that for every success story attributed to Mazzone (Burkett, Wright, I don’t count Sosa since he was just plain lucky) there are some failures (Albie Lopez, Jason Marquis, Odalis Perez, Kolb).
Again I’m NOT saying that Mazzone hasn’t been a major contributor to our success, but I just think that some of y’all are giving him WAY too much credit.
That was sort of the point I was tryin to get to in an above post
Posted this on the wrong thread earlier:
I’m just a bit tickled by “glove boy” & “sluggo”. Make it a running serial – /cheesy old radio voice/ “tune in next Friday for more of…the exciting adventures of Sluggo & Glove Boy” – next week’s episode, they watch as the evil genius Tony LaR. attempts to complete his plan to take over the baseball world. Or something hokey like that…
Not that it’s necessarily worth posting twice, but I’ve been quiet lately…
Alex, you really like tearing up all those straw men you build, don’t you?
Nobody here has said the Braves’ success is completely attributable to Cox. No one has even said Mazzone would not be missed at all. All that most of us on the Rational Train (nyb, joshg, me, others) are saying is that, while Leo leaving wouldn’t be desirable, it’s far from a signal that the run is over. The entire organization is responsible for this run, not just Leo Mazzone. If the Big 3 were to retire at once, I might start throwing gloom and doom projections around like you. However, if Leo decides to go to the Yanks (and let’s keep in mind that this hasn’t even happened yet), I think we could find a suitable enough replacement–and I think those in the organization have probably learned a little of Leo’s magic over the past 16 years, don’t you?–that we wouldn’t just drop to the bottom of the division.
Of course, they’re not just going to leave the job unfilled if Leo leaves; what happens next would depend upon who takes the job. The AAA pitching coach is Guy Hansen, whom (if I’m not mistaken) was fired by the Royals, which is hardly an advertisement. Maybe they’d hire Don Gullett. At any event, there are pitching coaches and pitching coaches. Leo is very good. There are others who are good, but not as good.
Dan Patrick thinks Leo won’t take the Yankee job. He just made an argument why he won’t and thinks it would be silly to do so. So we have that going for us.
Cox, Mazzone and Schuerholz working together are responsible for the decade and a half run the Braves have had. But if the Braves could only keep one of them, I’d want it to be Cox. He’s had success as a manager without the other two, and he was GM just prior to the beginning of the run. Mazzone is responsible for only one aspect of the team, while Cox is responsible for all of it. Much of the Braves’ dominance in the 90’s was based on pitching, but the team has won with other mixes as well. This year, the bullpen was the fatal flaw. I don’t want to diminish Mazzone’s importance to the team, but if one of the big three is going to leave, I would choose him first.
Choo! Choo! All Aboard the Rational Train!!!
Sorry, I’m feeling real giddy this afternoon at work…Couldn’t resist being a little stupid.
Anyway, I like everyone else hope that Leo stays. However, if we don’t upgrade our pitching talent it doesn’t really matter. With or without Leo, I don’t see a WS in the near future if we don’t figure out that Flippin Bullpen.
I should point out that Bobby got good performances out of his pitchers in Toronto, and adequate performances in his first stint with the Braves. The latter is impressive if you look at what he had to work with…
Joshg, here is my ticket, are we having chicken stir-fry or salsberry steak on this trip?
Hey we’d all love to have Prime Rib, but all I’m asking for is a Ribeye and to wash it down with a cold beer. I don’t want the salsbury steak and bitter beer face (Kolb) from 2004.
OK I am really in now
From MLB.com about Baltimore talking to Leo:
“The Orioles made the request on Monday and the Braves quickly responded.”
That almost sounds like the Braves are pushing him out the door. I guess Leo might get mad if the Braves didn’t let other teams talk to him, but the “quickly responding” part got me a little nervous.
I’m just a bit tickled by “glove boy” & “sluggo”. Make it a running serial – /cheesy old radio voice/ “tune in next Friday for more of…the exciting adventures of Sluggo & Glove Boy”
Sounds like the next failed Robert Rodriguez $100 million blockbuster.
Stu, no one thinks the Braves will drop to the BOTTOM of the division. The Nationals are still just glorified Expos.
However, if Leo leaves, fourth place isn’t out of the question.
JC at Sabernomics did a study that concluded that the Leo effect was about .5 in ERA. The Braves scored 769 runs and allowed 674 runs last year for a pythag. record of 91-71. The team ERA was 3.98 in 1443.7 innings. Using my trusty calculator, I came up with an additional 83 runs of the team ERA was increased to 4.50 (I didn’t try to figure out an increase in unearned runs.) The ups team runs allowed to 757, for a new pythag record of . . . well, somthing close to .500. So maybe 4th place is a reasonable guess. On the other hand, I’m not convinced that the Leo effect is solely Leo – I think its part Bobby. So in conclusion, I don’t know what will happen, but I’ll still be a Braves fan. [/attempted sabermetric analysis]
I don’t want to diminish Mazzone’s importance to the team, but if one of the big three is going to leave, I would choose him first.
Same here. I’m pretty sure we are smart enough to find someone at least decent to take his place. I’m very skeptical of JC’s .5 ERA number as many other studies have found little or no “Leo Effect”, but there would be some dropoff especially in the transition year.
Every year seven other teams make the playoffs without Leo as their pitching coach so it’s not like it can’t be done.
2006 Braves ZiPS Projections on Primer’s Transaction Oracle:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/33390/
Note the Salty, KJ, and Langerhans projections (as well as Francoeur’s – ZiPS thinks Jeff needs time at AAA).
nyb – I’d appreciate it if you could post links to the “no Leo effect” studies you’ve seen – everything I’ve read (primer poster dks, Dayn Perry’s atrocious article in BPro 2005 annual) confirms the existence of a Leo effect. Perry says that the effect is a lot smaller if you take out Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz (why would you do that?). I’ve never seen a study that looked for a “Leo effect” and couldn’t find one. What arguments do they make?
This just in: Mazzone blew off the Yanks.
Whew.
Was just about to post a link to that, ububba. Still got to turn down the O’s before we’re totally in the clear.
Correct.
But psychologically, I can deal with the O’s more than the Yanks. I live in Yankeeland & I don’t wanna hafta see him in Pinstripes.
Looks like Leo called off the contract talks with the Yankees. (per ESPN.com)
Sorry, didn’t mean to be redundant. The other postings hadn’t shown yet on my computer.
ububba, I don’t really care about the O’s or Yanks. I care only about Mazzone leaving. However, if the Yanks can’t buy him with their almost unlimited budget, it would have to be some hardcore friendship connection + cash to woo him to the O’s.
The Newsday article.
Oh I don’t know Kyle, the Leo study has been a pretty common study over the years, I think even Neyer has taken a crack. I don’t catalog the links. What I was getting at is the JC’s study suggests that Leo is worth upwards of 80 runs a season, which seems way on the high side to me. Most other studies suggest a smaller effect.
Sorry for this lousy answer, but I’m just not the kind of person who keeps track of who did what study when and where it’s kept.
Kyle S, is ZIPS any good? I’ve never found the predictions to be very accurate. Worse than PECOTA, even, which is saying something. However, I’m just being anecdotal. I don’t have “numbers”.
I’m just waiting for SSPS 2006, which I guess will come out shortly after Lahman 2005. Of course, in order for SSPS to be posted, WordPress will eventually have to be able to connect to the database.
Somehow, I think that the Hampton projection is off.
I don’t know how good ZIPS is, but any projection system that has the guts to predict pitcher W/L record gets style points from me.
ZIPS hates Brian McCann – don’t care for that. I think he could be the best player out of this year’s rookie class (not counting Marte of course).
I have a post brewing about McCann, I don’t know when I’ll actually write it. In short: he’s the most important player in the organization.
I completely agree, nyb. McCann sure looks like something special.
ZiPS is about as good as Pecota (probably not quite as accurate) and, since it’s free, a much better value. It’s better than just plugging in last year’s stats again for your fantasy projections.
I think Pecota’s historical r is about .7 (for hitters, predicting ops), but I’m not entirely sure. There are some good primer threads that talk about projection theory – mgl and tango say that ~.75-.80 is the platonic ideal r due to variation of output inherent in small samples, so all the projection systems are fighting over a small amount of real estate.
Here is the BPro article about how good a job Pecota did its first year. They haven’t followed it up, so I have no idea if it repeated its success. If anyone can find the Primer article about that, be my guest. I’d be interested if JC would compare his results with PECOTA and ZiPS to see if he made up any more of the ground or not…
Obviously any system relying on regression to the mean doesn’t regress to the mean of “players who just had TJ surgery a month ago” – maybe someday…
SSPS kicked ass for fantasy projections this year.
Just sayin’.
Of course, the best thing about a regression-to-the-mean system is that if you predict someone’s going to decline every year, eventually you’ll be right. This may not apply to Clemens and Bonds.
Joey T,
Bully for you. I go to 20 Yankee games a year & the idea of watching Leo come out of the dugout in Pinstripes kinda turns my stomach. No offense to O’s fans, but that bunch doesn’t get a visceral reaction outta me. If Leo goes there, I can better handle it.
For the last 24 hours, I’ve been mentally preparing myself for Leo being gone and I’m still kinda at that point. If he stays, I’ll crack open a lager in small celebration.
can you give us some background on how MLB stabbed the nationals in the back? I’m not sure of those particular details of their move to Washington.
I don’t know the details. Jenny and Alex live in the area, they might know more. All I know is that they let Angelos grab 90 percent of the joint cable TV deal.
What I was getting at is the JC’s study suggests that Leo is worth upwards of 80 runs a season, which seems way on the high side to me. Most other studies suggest a smaller effect.
Pass.
Sorry for this lousy answer, but I’m just not the kind of person who keeps track of who did what study when and where it’s kept.
What a surprise.
Well, Jenny only lives in the area on breaks now, but here’s what I know about the Nats deal:
MASN (which is awful, by the way, both technically and in terms of announcers; at least they overrode a public access channel to put it on instead of something useful) is owned by Peter Angelos and he gets 90% of the profits. There is also a guaranteed minimum selling price for the Orioles, which I believe is $450 million. If it’s not met when the team is sold, MLB makes up the shortfall. He also got a flat $75 million cash payout, most of which seems to be going into his pocket, into his law firm, and into TV lawsuits with Comcast.
I’m really starting to think Leo may go to Baltimore. They are willing to pony up. He is close friends with Sam Perlozzo. If he’s staying, why hasn’t he been signed yet? I have mixed feelings about this, since I’m a fan of both teams, but I think I’d rather Leo stay here. I care more about the Braves than the Orioles and they are not likely to be contending next year. So why waste Leo up there? The FO is also a huge mess; if he’s leaving Atlanta because of conflicts with the FO, he has no idea how bad it can get. The ownership here is not smart but not meddling, either. The ownership in Boston (by this, I mean Larry Lucchino) is meddling but smart. The ownership in Baltimore is meddling and not smart. Leo has no idea how bad it can get if that’s his problem.
What a surprise.
Do we seriously have to do this everytime? You worked very hard on some stuff and you believe in it. I don’t accept your work as gospel and in fact have serious issues with much of it. We are never going to see eye to eye. Do we really have to clutter up Mac’s board with snippy stuff like this?
Did SSPS really do well this year? Cool! I hadn’t checked on it yet. It’s a royal pain to do, but I’ll do ’em again this year after the Lahman comes out. Sorry about my page going down 10 times a day. The server shuts down MySQL every so often for no apparent reason. I hope to switch servers in the near future.
In BPro 2004 they looked at ZIPs, PECOTA, and some other system, and PECOTA beat them all by about 1% or 2 of R-sq. (I think). I tested SSPS for the same year (I can’t remember what it was) and it did slightly better than what they reported. To be honest, I think it shows that some of these systems are all about the same.
This isn’t good:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5007138
FOXSports.com reports Leo is gone to the Orioles. Let the freaking out commence…
I’m freaked. Bye-bye playoffs.
nyb, you started it. Back up your arguments or shut up.
I seriously want to vomit right now. This is as bad as a playoff loss. Worse, in that it has ramifications for every season from here on out.
Congrats to the Orioles. Enjoy your playoff berths. At least Leo will be knocking one of the Yankersox out of the big dance.