25 thoughts on “Byrd to Angels”

  1. As thoroughly mediocre as he was for the Braves, I was still hoping to see him back next year. He was offered arbitration and still makes his home in GA; I wonder why the Braves didn’t hold onto him. $4.5M seems reasonable enough, unless they have decided to allot that money to another player specifically. It would be hard to find a better pitcher for that price, without trading away our farm system to get one.

  2. Dave, there are better pitchers out there who will costs less than $4.5M, they are Meyers and Cruz. With the acquisition of Kolb, the urgency of Byrd returning is much less.

    In respect of Hudson, I can’t figure out where are we going to have the money to sign Hudson a long term contract. If Benson costs $7M a year, Hudson will be asking for at least $10M per. If we give him that, we will have no money left for the right fielder. Are we really expecting Eli to play right field?

    Unless the A’s take Eli’s contract, I just don’t see us making this deal because, of course, the budget limitation. I would rather wait on Millwood and force him to take that $4M contract. Seriously, if the A’s project Meyers as a 4th starter now, why are we giving him that for 1) a one-year rental on Hudson; or 2) a long-term contract to Hudson which we can’t afford?

    I may be missing something here, but I just can’t work out the math.

  3. If the Braves have the money to sign Hudson, they should do it, regardless of rightfield. I’m all for trying Marte out there or going with an in house solution for a year. Hudson would be worth it.

  4. Does anyone know if Wright passed the next Yankee physical?

    Also…if Pedro’s physical holds up, we could be seeing Smoltz vs. Pedro Sunday April 10th at Turner Field. We’ll see what their both about this year in that matchup.

  5. We’re definately okay without Byrd. Byrd is pretty much guaranteed to be mediocre. For the same price, we can take the gamble that Millwood will get back to 217 IP, 3.24 ERA. I think we forget that he’s had two near-Cy Young quality seasons and he’s “only” 30. What’s the worst that could happen? Mediocricy. We’re pretty much guaranteed that from Byrd. I would love to see Kevin Millwood back, and not just because he has an uncanny resemblance to an old youth pastor of mine.

  6. Rob, in another thread you seem to be advocating trading one of our middle infielders to get Hudson, but here you say you’d like to have Millwood back. Surely we can’t do both — not with Thomson, Hampton, Smoltz, and Horacio also on hand, with Cruz still lurking, and Meyer in the hole?

    I’d be happy to settle for Millwood, as we’re unlikely to replace Furcal or Giles with anyone nearly as good. Also, this would further weaken an offense that right now features one everyday outfielder and a 1B who, while promising, hasn’t proven yet that he can do the job.

    Should Marte indeed prove to be ready, I’m fully prepared to trade Chipper if the right opportunity presents itself. He’s not getting any younger, and his defensive liabilities may soon have him gumming up the works. Just shooting the breeze here, but Anaheim might be a possibility. They’re high on Dallas McPherson as a replacement for Glaus, but say he struggles, Erstad continues being mediocre, and/or Salmon can’t come back (all reasonable possibilities). Might we trade Chipper for Erstad, Juan Rivera, and a single-A pitcher? At least we’d increase our options in the outfield…I dunno.

  7. I wish I could be as confident that Horacio will be ready to go come April. There were too many unanswered questions about his injury to suit my tastes. Have there been any recent updates on his health?

  8. Now that the Mets have Pedro-Benson-Zambrano-Glavine-Trachsel, I would like the Braves to acquire either Millwood or Hudson. Preferably Hudson, but either should keep us above them. Considering they’re the Mets, we might be all good with what we have. I like our chances against the rest of the division.

  9. I don’t like that idea at all, Sansho. Chipper has one bad year and you’re ready to write him off. The injuries were obviously holding him back in 2004, as he’s a .304 career hitter. Look at his stats from 1996-2003, for his sake. Pretty damn good. I’m not ready trade the homegrown franchise player after looking sore on the field and in the batter’s box. He’s worth keeping to see if that deadly and patient hitter comes back. Marte can wait or move around as far as I’m concerned. It’s an idea worth exploring, though, and will become a bigger issue as the days go by.

  10. It’s not that I’m giving up on him, although the package of players I came up with might make it seem that way. Maybe we could do better. But I don’t think Chipper has more than a couple of seasons left as a top-flight player, if indeed he’s even that right now. He can still rake, but he’s stiff and slow — he’s got what some people call old-player skills, and that type of player doesn’t tend to age well. I think it’s better to get rid of someone while you can still get value in return.

    Right now we’ve got four big contracts: Smoltz, Andruw, Chipper, and Hampton. Compared to Chipper, Andruw is less replaceable, Hampton less tradeable and less likely to bring something useful, and Smoltz will either sign an extension or become a free agent. Chipper is the only one we can trade who can bring someone we need to fill a gap (OF and/or pitching). I’m not married to the idea–I know he’s a local icon and everything. I just don’t want to overpay for declining performance until we have to trade him for the likes of Jeff Parrett, as we did with Murph.

  11. Really Chipper has been in decline for some time (the last three years). He is still great, but he is also greatly overpaid by today’s market.

  12. What are you base that ridiculous claim on? Last year was the first season since ’95 that Chipper didn’t post 100 RBI. The only thing you can say that has dropped before last years injury plagued season has been his homeruns. He posts more walks than strikeouts in almost every season of his career. And if he stays at third base and stays healthy there’s no reason not to expect another .300+ avg, 30+ Hr, 100+ RBI season. Not to mention he’s the only legitimate cleanup hitter we got right now.

    Claiming that chipper only has a couple good seasons left is ridiculous and sure as hell not based on any realy evidence. You can trace almost all of his problems of late back to his move to the OF, a selfless act he did to better the team. Now you want to sell him out because of it, incredible.

  13. I don’t think there is anybody out there who will take Chipper and his $15 MILLION SALARY!!! You know, $15M is enough to get Beltran or Guerrero…seriously, if we can’t replace Drew or Chipper doesn’t get back to his 1.000 OPS playing level, our offense wouldn’t be enough no matter how good the pitching is.

  14. Chipper’s OPS as an outfielder, 2002-2004: 937
    Chipper’s OPS as 3B, 2004: 869

    Adding to Josh’s numbers above:

    RC – (148, 119, 110, 83)
    OPS – (1032, 971, 919, 847)

    Age: Will be 33 next season

    If this was a player you didn’t care about, wouldn’t you say he’s in decline? I know he’s still good — I said so, and so did Josh. But I don’t think he will be for too much longer. Pinning your hopes on a position switch seems like voodoo compared to the cold, hard fact that time marches on whether you want it to or not.

  15. Chipper’s Post All-Star (and post injury) numbers:

    18 HR
    62 RBI
    OBP .391
    SLG% .548
    OPS .939
    He also has less strikeouts in more ABs

    He tailed off in Sept., but his August numbers were off the charts

    11 HR
    29 RBI
    BA .313
    OBP .404
    SLG% .683
    OPS 1.087

    In Sept, he walked a lot more, so even though his BA was down, his OBP was .385

    I wouldn’t call that a decline, I would call it being more comfortable at 3rd base than at LF. He’s not my favorite player, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him traded if we had a real need that could be filled by trading him (3-way with someone and Minnesota to get Santana?), but if Glaus can get over $11 million/year, then Chipper is worth $15 million per. Remember, he led the team in RBIs even after a horrible start. That says volumes.

  16. [i]Remember, he led the team in RBIs even after a horrible start. That says volumes.[/i]

    Yes, it says he batted directly behind JD Drew who reached base over 43% of the time.

  17. I totally agree with bwarrend except for the assumption that if Glaus can get over $11 million, Chipper is worth $15 million. Just because Glaus got $11 million, doesn’t necessarily mean he was worth $11 million. Same for Ortiz.

    Comparing Chipper’s contract to Beltran’s is totally ridiculous. Beltran’s so overrated it’s not even funny. This year was supposedly his “breakout year” and his OPS was still 30 points lower than Chipper’s career OPS. Beltran plays an offensive-minded position, whereas Chipper plays 3B. Chipper walks more than he strikes out. Chipper’s contract is considered a near albatross, and Beltran’s is considered a bargain. Also take into consideration when they both were signed. If Beltran were a free agent when Chipper got his extension, Beltran would have easily gotten $20-22 million per year. If Chipper got his extension now, he maybe would be getting $12 million per. Also, if I’m not mistaken, Chipper is only signed until he’s 35. Beltran is looking for 10 years, which would take him to 37 years old. Chipper is overrated because he’s being payed $15 million per when Beltran is going to be making it when he’s 37?

  18. This year was supposedly his “breakout year” and his OPS was still 30 points lower than Chipper’s career OPS

    He also stole 40 bases at a phenomenal success rate while playing great defense at perhaps the most valuable defensive position.

    Beltran plays an offensive-minded position, whereas Chipper plays 3B.

    Untrue. Center field is the second-hardest defensive position, behind shortstop, and a good defensive centerfielder has more value over replacement-level than a good defensive shortstop. Third base is the 3rd-easiest position to play, behind first base and left field. I think the replacement-level EqA scale goes (lowest replacement level -> highest): C, SS, CF, 2B, RF, 3B, LF, 1B, DH. Anyway, given two hypothetical players (1 CF, 1 3B) with equivalent offensive contributions and league-average defense, the center fielder is much more valuable.

    I totally agree with bwarrend except for the assumption that if Glaus can get over $11 million, Chipper is worth $15 million. Just because Glaus got $11 million, doesn’t necessarily mean he was worth $11 million. Same for Ortiz.

    That’s absolutely right, but you neglect the corollary: just because Glaus got $11 million doesn’t mean Chipper is worth $15. They are both overpaid.

    I would guesstimate Chipper’s current market value (i.e. if he was a free agent today) below that of Glaus and Beltre, above Castilla and Tony Batista. Despite Glaus’ injury history, he is much younger than Chipper and reputed to be a better defender (though if his shoulder is toast, that won’t remain true). Somewhere in the $6m – $8m range for 3 years sounds about right for a free agent Chipper.

  19. I don’t think there is anybody out there who will take Chipper and his $15 MILLION SALARY

    That’s why I thought of the Angels — Arte Moreno doesn’t mind spending money, and including Erstad in the deal would make it somewhat less lopsided moneywise.

    I’m not saying we should do this now. But if Marte plays well in the minors early this year and the outfield becomes an intractable problem, and if Chipper fails to bounce back (lots of ifs, but all plausible), then I think we should take a look at it. Erstad is mediocre, but if you look at his and Marrero’s 2004 platoon splits, together they make a .340/.392/.485 (877 OPS) left fielder. OK, 820 OPS is a more likely projection. And Juan Rivera would fit quite nicely in RF. Right now we have #1, #4, and #5 outfielders, but I don’t see a #2 or #3. Every other position is set, and I think Marte will soon be pushing Chipper, who I doubt will move back to the outfield to accomodate a rookie, so something’s gotta give, right?

  20. Renteria just signed for $10 mil per, none of you can sit here and tell me Chipper would make less. You all talk about his horrible defense, but I don’t see it. I get more nervous on ground balls to Furcal than I do Chipper. He had bad range in the OF, other than that, he’s pretty average defensively at 3B.

    You guys are posting symptoms of the same issue and calling it seperate evidence. The only thing leading to Chipper’s decline in OPS is his HR totals.

    Again, all I see is a drop in AVG and OPB this previous year, before then there is no decline, just 2 years with slightly fewer homeruns than before.

    With 8 straight years of 100+ RBI’s, I think it’s safe to say JD Drew wasn’t the overriding factor involved :/

  21. You have got to be kidding me, Kyle. $6 – $8 million for Chipper Jones? You’re gonna tell me that Jermaine Dye is only a couple million dollars less value-wise than Chipper? Steve freakin’ Finley is gonna be making $7 million and he’s 39. Are you off your meds? I’m sorry, but maybe the sentimently reasons make me value him higher, but I doubt you can say that Chipper is worth as much as a mediocre fielding shortstop with injury history and a .842 career OPS (Nomar). You’re also saying that Troy Glaus has more value? The same Troy Glaus that has a .253 career BA and almost strikes out twice as much as he walks? Ohhh, but he hits home runs! Also, regardless of his defensive reputation, he’s either a first baseman in 2005 or down the road because Shea Hillenbrand or Chad Tracy will push him off third. Troy Glaus should be the guy making $6m to $8m but the Diamondbacks have to overpay every FA they get because no one wants to play for them. I’m curious to see that Glaus would have made if the Diamondbacks hadn’t offered him that.

  22. I get more nervous on ground balls to Furcal than I do Chipper.

    So do I, but then how can a statue make a person nervous? Unless it’s, you know, nekkid or something.

  23. Does anyone call Chipper’s 2nd half a decline. He put up some of, if not the best numbers in the majors in the 2nd half. He would have hit over .300 for the 2nd half if they hadn’t stopped pitching to him.

    Which does bring up a point. One weakness I see with Chipper is that when he starts getting walked a lot, he loses patience at the plate.

    To say he’s worth less than Glaus or others is nuts. He was an perennial All-Star before they moved him to LF. He’ll be there again this year, mark my word.

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