Still Cruising

I will be in Europe into next weekend, so apologies in advance for coverage that is not up to my usual standard… or maybe that’s an improvement. I learned today that Oviedo, Spain has a slightly-greater-than-lifesize statue of Woody Allen. Now you know it too.

Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position

A lot of people discuss this statistic. It is meaningful, but not nearly as meaningful as people think. Without looking at the analysis below, I’ll give you two choices: (a) you can know a team’s batting average with runners in scoring position; or (b) you can know how many times they had a runner in scoring position. Which do you think gives you more information about the number of runs that team scored in that game? Give it a little thought before reading on….

So I took every game since 2000 and I ran two linear regressions: (a) runs as a function of opportunities with men in scoring position; and (b) runs as a function of batting average with men in scoring position. Note that these are total runs scored in the game, not just runs scored with men in scoring position. Here are the results:

(1) Runs = 0.79 + 0.45 Opps

(2) Runs = 1.95 + 10.8 Avg

So, using equation (1), a team with 10 chances with runners in scoring position in a game will score about 0.79 + 4.5 or 5.29 runs

Using equation (2), a team that hits .300 with runners in scoring position will score about 1.95+3.24 or 5.19 runs.

These two equations have almost the same accuracy, but the batting average version is slightly more accurate, explaining 34.7% of the variance in runs per game as opposed to 32.7% of variance for opportunities.

Unsurprisingly, hits with runners in scoring position, which is just the product of opportunities and average, dramatically outperforms both partial measures:

(3) Runs = 1.65 + 1.34 Hits with Runners in scoring position, so that 3 hits are expected to yield 1.65+4 = 5.65 Runs. But this explains 63% of the variance between teams in runs scored per game.

The lesson here is that telling people how many times a team got runners in scoring position is valuable information, almost as valuable as telling them what their batting average was in this circumstances. But the number of timely hits is much more valuable than knowing just the average in that situation.

The Game

Baseball fans might have wanted to see Jacob Misiorowski against Chris Sale, but Walt Weiss had to put his fandom aside and save Chris Sale until tomorrow. Instead, Martin Perez had the unenviable task of facing the current predicted Cy Young favorite whose minuscule 1.34 ERA and 131 strikeouts lead the National League, and trails only Toronto’s Louis Varland‘s 0.90 ERA to miss leading both leagues in both categories.

Misiorowski established his bona fides early with a three pitch strikout of Drake Baldwin, all three at 103 mph. But the Braves managed to get two runners in scoring position in the second, to no avail. There was a little unfortunate availing in the top of the third, when an infield single brought home the first run of the game. Tracking the paragraph above, after 3 innings the Braves had two opportunities and no hits, while the Brewers had two opportunities and one hit. Through 4, the Brewers added two more opportunities.

As a guy watching a game that started at 1:15 am, I was really pleased to see the first four innings played in under an hour. But it certainly didn’t look like the Braves had any real chance to get to Misiorowski. On the other hand, through 4, Misiorowski had only 3 strikeouts, well under his 15 strikeout pace from his last outing.

Another Brewer opportunity was thwarted in the sixth with a lineout into a double play. The next Braves opportunity came in the bottom of the inning, when an infield single from Jorge Mateo and a single from Ozzie Albies made it first-and-third with one out and Matt Olson at the plate. Matt walked on nine pitches to load the bases. After Dominic Smith struck out, Mauricio Dubón delivered a huge two-strike single to score 2 and give the Braves the lead. Misiorowski, who had given up exactly one run in the previous 60 innings, had given up 2, and was suddenly over 90 pitches.

The next three Braves innings were slated to be Driggy time. Dylan Lee allowed a single and a stolen base and only a great running catch in the corner by Eli White kept the Brewers from tying the game. Robert Suarez was brought in to face Jackson Chourio with two outs to try and keep it 2-1. Olson dug out a low throw from Mateo to preserve the lead.

Misiorowski was done, and it only took one pitch for Mike Yastrzemski to deposit one in the Chophouse off Abner Uribe. The game hit the 2 hour mark after 7 innings, but the lead did a lot to alleviate impending somnolence, and the chance to maybe only have another inning-and-a-half had me hopeful.

dRiggy stayed in for the 8th and gave up two straight two-out singles. Jake Bauers (last seen on the series 24) was brought in to rescue the day. He walked to load the bases, bringing up Sal Frelick as the second straight pinch hitter. He fell behind 3-1, but a comebacker ended the threat.

drIGGY time. Gary Sanchez, who I had no idea was still playing baseball, grounded out to short. Christian Yelich then walked to bring up Chourio. A double gave the Brewers life. Brice Turang hit a single that would have tied the game but-for about as good a play as we will see all season: Eli White, who had already saved a run earlier, threw a perfect throw home with an unbelievable display of concentration and strength by Drake Baldwin to eliminate Chourio at the plate. Iggy then struck out William Contreras to end the contest.

A great, great game, even though it ended (for me) shortly after 25 or 6 to 4. Is the “slump” over? Not quite yet… but it isn’t deepening.

Sale tomorrow. I’ll be awake.