Baseball Caps

MLB has made its initial offer for a new CBA. As a guy that doesn’t care what any player makes, or what any franchise is worth, so long as I can watch great baseball players playing every game from anywhere in the world, I am seriously impressed with this proposal, and the fact that it contains a cap, IMO, shouldn’t eliminate the possibility of a deal along these lines before the current CBA expires in December.

I don’t think an elaborate dissection of this offer is worthwhile, just because whatever solution is eventually found won’t be this one. But the fundamental deal here: caps and floors, independently audited revenue sharing, and pooling all broadcasting revenues into an aggregate pot for the players to share looks to this retired economist like something that has plenty of immediate upsides for both sides: this is unsurprising simply because there’s so much room to improve both side’s positions — negotiations are always harder when one party or the other is being asked to endure prospective loss. Zero-sum games are hard – one side’s win is the other side’s loss; positive-sum games can still be hard to negotiate, because allocating the surplus is a different kind of zero-sum game, but, in the presence of good will, can usually get done. Nine months until Spring Training 2027 is affected. Git ‘er done.

More Roleplay

So I loved the thought of the allocated WAR stuff I did yesterday. What i like about it is that it’s a different take on “best player,” namely “best player at a particular position for one team.” Your ability (whether assisted or not by free agency and the reserve clause) fits in… an undeniably great player who bounced around like Gary Sheffield or Kenny Lofton is penalized in these rankings… call it a fan disappointment subtraction. Players who played multiple positions well are rewarded by being represented at more than one position. Also, WAR values have substantial positional components, so allocating by position-team-year, while not precise, at least compares like with like. Finally, subsetting by team makes development strengths and weaknesses particularly clear. Lots of teams use left field as a dumping ground for players whose bats have to get in the lineup. The Braves’ results from yesterday show just how strong that effect is. Not counting DH, the Braves have had no players who might be thought of as a left fielder to be counted on for four or five years strong years in left field. The leader, Lonnie Smith, put in 5 years in left field with one mammoth season, one good one, and three cromulent years.

Today, I produce the top ten looking across teams, though the numbers are still only their team-related numbers, which is why Barry Bonds appears in Left Field twice. I did make one change from yesterday, which is that I have aggregated teams into franchises. This heavily affects a few players, notably Henry Aaron, as well as anyone who played through the Angels various team acronym changes, but, more importantly, it gives the franchise their modern acronyms, for those who are puzzled as to why Walter Johnson pitched for the Twins or Gary Carter caught for the Nationals.

1B WAR 2B WAR 3B WAR
Lou Gehrig:NYA 113.0 Charlie Gehringer:DET 84.4 Mike Schmidt:PHI 100.3
Jeff Bagwell:HOU 79.3 Lou Whitaker:DET 74.1 Eddie Mathews:ATL 90.6
Albert Pujols:SLN 70.8 Nap Lajoie:CLE 71.7 Brooks Robinson:BAL 78.1
Joey Votto:CIN 63.3 Eddie Collins:CHA 66.4 George Brett:KCA 71.7
Todd Helton:COL 61.7 Ryne Sandberg:CHN 65.2 Ron Santo:CHN 71.2
Bill Terry:SFN 56.1 Rogers Hornsby:SLN 63.9 Chipper Jones:ATL 70.3
Jimmie Foxx:ATH 52.8 Chase Utley:PHI 60.5 Wade Boggs:BOS 68.9
Willie McCovey:SFN 52.3 Joe Morgan:CIN 57.7 Ken Boyer:SLN 54.4
Eddie Murray:BAL 51.7 Eddie Collins:ATH 56.1 Stan Hack:CHN 53.9
Norm Cash:DET 51.4 Willie Randolph:NYA 54.0 Sal Bando:ATH 51.5
C WAR CF WAR DH WAR
Johnny Bench:CIN 64.4 Willie Mays:SFN 150.6 David Ortiz:BOS 48.3
Bill Dickey:NYA 56.4 Ty Cobb:DET 112.5 Edgar Martínez:SEA 47.4
Yogi Berra:NYA 54.4 Mickey Mantle:NYA 95.8 Shohei Ohtani:ANA 29.5
Gabby Hartnett:CHN 53.9 Joe DiMaggio:NYA 76.0 Frank Thomas:CHA 28.3
Gary Carter:WAS 51.8 Tris Speaker:CLE 75.6 Travis Hafner:CLE 23.9
Iván Rodríguez:TEX 48.8 Mike Trout:ANA 74.4 Hal McRae:KCA 22.0
Thurman Munson:NYA 42.6 Ken Griffey:SEA 67.6 Yordan Álvarez:HOU 17.9
Ted Simmons:SLN 41.8 Duke Snider:LAN 60.6 Shohei Ohtani:LAN 16.0
Jorge Posada:NYA 41.1 Andruw Jones:ATL 58.6 Paul Molitor:MIL 14.2
Yadier Molina:SLN 40.6 Richie Ashburn:PHI 57.3 Brian Downing:ANA 12.7
LF WAR P WAR RF WAR
Ted Williams:BOS 113.6 Walter Johnson:MIN 164.5 Hank Aaron:ATL 106.4
Barry Bonds:SFN 109.4 Christy Mathewson:SFN 106.6 Roberto Clemente:PIT 93.1
Carl Yastrzemski:BOS 67.4 Warren Spahn:ATL 99.4 Mel Ott:SFN 92.3
Rickey Henderson:ATH 67.3 Bob Gibson:SLN 89.2 Babe Ruth:NYA 76.0
Babe Ruth:NYA 59.9 Phil Niekro:ATL 88.6 Al Kaline:DET 73.2
Zack Wheat:LAN 59.4 Clayton Kershaw:LAN 80.9 Paul Waner:PIT 66.7
Billy Williams:CHN 47.0 Roger Clemens:BOS 80.8 Tony Gwynn:SDN 64.9
Fred Clarke:PIT 46.3 Tom Seaver:NYN 78.8 Dwight Evans:BOS 57.6
Bobby Veach:DET 46.3 Eddie Plank:ATH 77.4 Harry Heilmann:DET 57.2
Barry Bonds:PIT 44.3 Robin Roberts:PHI 72.0 Sammy Sosa:CHN 54.9
SS WAR
Honus Wagner:PIT 99.1
Cal Ripken:BAL 86.9
Luke Appling:CHA 74.3
Derek Jeter:NYA 70.6
Barry Larkin:CIN 70.0
Pee Wee Reese:LAN 67.5
Alan Trammell:DET 67.4
Arky Vaughan:PIT 66.5
Ozzie Smith:SLN 65.9
Lou Boudreau:CLE 60.3

This is quite a list of players. As I alluded to yesterday, Barry Bonds is a top ten alltime performer in left field for two different teams. The only other player with the feature is Ohtani, who has already made the DH list with the Dodgers, having previously established a place there with the Angels. Babe Ruth is a great Yankee in either LF or RF, considered separately. Think about how remarkable that is. (Not to mention his pitching career and his one year with the Braves.)

While most of the players on this list are in the Hall of Fame, I think it’s interesting to see the non-HoFers on this list, mostly guys in the Hall of the Very Good who also spent a lot of times with one franchise, like Sal Bando, and HoFers who aren’t on this list, like Carlos Beltrán, who didn’t play long enough for any one team to get close. Pete Rose isn’t on this list despite 80 WAR over 24 years because he played too many positions with too many teams, and because he was an ass. (That explains the HoF, too.)

All of the pitchers are HoFers, but if you pitched for too many teams, you have no chance: Maddux and Glavine are out, as is Randy Johnson, though Phil Niekro is in, because he pitched forever.

26 of the current 30 franchises are represented. Apologies to Arizona, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Miami.

The Game

So it’s on to Cincinnati. For those who haven’t been paying attention (look… you’re busy. I get it.) every team in the NL Central is above 0.500. The Reds are 3 over, at 29-26, 5 games behind the Brewers. Sherlocks against Chris Paddack, who should be a workhorse, but he was released by the Marlins a couple of weeks ago and has made two losing starts for the Communists. Atlanta beat him with the Marlins back on tax day, but he only gave up 2 runs in 4 2/3 in that outing. The Reds signed him because they are having pitching injury problems that cause them to sign starting pitchers with pulses. If i were AA I’d offer them Cookie Carrasco for the injured Hunter Greene.

Why would you build a park with these dimensions? Denver is going to be a problem no matter what you do, and Boston has a real estate problem that requires a big inviting wall, but to purposely treat your pitchers this way is just inhumane (see above), and it demeans the game. There is a strategic issue as well: the more you configure your team to hit well in your home park, the less suited they are for every other park when your park is highly outlying. Since the Great American Ballpark was built in 2003, they have two first place finishes, have only made the playoffs five times, losing every playoff series with four sweeps. This is not all the fault of the dimensions of the park of course, but that is a really bad 22 years for a franchise. (Pittsburgh is even worse, so maybe the problem is putting your stadium too near the Ohio River.) I would note that the Braves had a similar record in the similarly homer-friendly Launching Pad for their first 22 years there. The Braves finally overcame it by assembling a historically great pitching staff, which is really hard to reproduce.

Unsurprisingly, Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a homer to lead off. Michael Harris II would have gone back-to-back but Blake Dunn saved a run with a good steal over the wall. He then threw out Matt Olson after a smash off the wall couldn’t be turned into a double. I think batters playing there forget that hits off the wall wouldn’t even be on the warning track in a lot of places.

The Braves loaded the bases with no outs in the second and scored their second run on an infield out by Jorge Mateo, and Chadwick Tromp hit a sac fly to bring home the third run. A Harris single brought home the fourth run.

Holmes cruised along until the 4th. A leadoff homer from JJ Bleday was followed by a double from Sal Stewart. He then faced Eugenio Suarez who hit three homers off Holmes in a game last year. Suarez popped out, and the Reds then sacrificed a run when Stewart was thrown out stealing third just in advance of a Nathaniel Lowe homer. 4-2.

Holmes got in trouble again in the fifth. This was as pure a Weiss Contrast Moment™ as you can have. There is literally no way Bobby Cox or Fredi Gonzalez or Brian Snitker would remove a guy with two on, two outs and a two run lead in the bottom of the fifth. In fact, I then checked. There are, before this season, 2155 in which a team was leading by two runs and there were two outs with men on first on third. The pitcher was removed 50 times, a pitcher change rate of 2.3 percent. In Atlanta history, there have been 60 such games (45 of them in the Cox-Gonzalez-Snitker era) and only twice was the starting pitcher removed. The first was this game, in which interim manager Connie Ryan, who had replaced Clyde King only a couple of weeks earlier, removed Jamie Easterly for Blue Moon Odom. Ryan was not given the job permanently.

But the other game was this one, in which Snit removed Mike Foltynewicz one out short of qualifying for a win, replacing him with Luke Jackson. Folty had already given up a run in the inning though. So when I said no way above I was wrong. It happened exactly once.

Didier Fuentes gave up a run, but after that the bullpen was (scoring-wise) perfect. And the Braves tacked on four more runs in the 6th and then everyone hibernated for the rest of the game.

7:15 tomorrow on Fox in some markets, Martin Perez against Brady Singer.