[I have a confession to make: spring training is famous as a time of rebirth, but lately, all I do is wait for someone else I’m counting on to come up lame. So instead of covering the depressing (don’t worry… someone will cover it in the comments) I will discuss trivial things that nobody knows.]
Preliminary Throat-Clearing
Many Braves fans call Henry Aaron “the real home run king” or some such sobriquet. I get it, even though I disagree. Barry Bonds did what he did, and the substances he used to assist him that effort were some combination of legal, undocumented and of unproven efficacy. But he is not the home run champion for every day of the week, as I’ve just found out.
By Day of the Week? What?
As you all know, I spend a lot of time discovering stuff from the Retrosheet database. I have begun using Claude, the AI assistant from Anthropic, to assist me in this. It now attempts to write the code to query the database. It’s a work in progress, but even with the partial assistance I’m now give, I can answer questions much more quickly than I used to.
So I tested the program today by asking: “Give the home run leaders by day of the week.” And now there is not one home run king, but three:
| Sunday | Aaron | 148 |
| Monday | Bonds and Ruth | 81 |
| Tuesday | Aaron and Bonds | 121 |
| Wednesday | Bonds | 116 |
| Thursday | Bonds | 100 |
| Friday | Bonds | 130 |
| Saturday | Ruth | 137 |
So even if you think The Clear helps you hit homers on Wednesday-Friday, Mr. Aaron is still the unalloyed king of Sunday, and tied Bonds on Tuesdays. By the way, Bonds and Ruth aren’t in the top three on Sundays. Mays hit 135 and Musial hit 134 on Sunday. I think Ruth and Bonds were still celebrating Saturday night.
The variance over days of the week also shows the importance of randomness in baseball. All quantities have means and variances.
I’m perfectly willing to grant that this information will not improve your life in any way. But it will be something you didn’t know until today.
Great work! Youve just confirmed for me that Mr. Aaron is the real Home Run King. After all, he hit more homers on one day of the week than anyone else did on any other day of the week.
(I’d much rather talk about this than wait for the latest injury report.)
Barry Bonds punching the clock Monday-Friday. Very blue-collar Pittsburgh.
Obviously the Monday and Thursday totals would be lower due to off days. I wonder if they used to schedule doubleheaders on Saturdays and Sundays.
Ruth played in 111 Sunday doubleheader games; Aaron played in 281 and Bonds played in 16. There were a lot of Sunday doubleheaders in the 50s and 60s, which explains why Mays and Musial are 2 and 3 among Sunday home run hitters. (I haven’t checked, but they may have been as common for Ruth, but they rested him in the second game)
Weiss on Harris: “it comes down to swing decisions”
Is know it’s obvious to everyone but it’s nice to hear management say it. That gives me hope someone is coaching him and not just mincing around and avoiding stepping on toes.
https://www.mlb.com/braves/video/walt-weiss-talks-pitching-staff-harris-ii-s-approach?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think Harris is gonna have a monster year.
-He can’t possibly continue to have this terrible pitch recognition. Just a modicum of improvement there would add tons of OPS
-Obviously already great defense.
-Power will develop as he gets older.
-Antoine Richardson is going to turn everybody with speed on the roster into a base stealer, just like he did with the Mets.
I’m going to talk myself into drafting Michael Harris in the fifth round again. I just know it. I just need to be honest with myself and accept that I have a problem.
There are 3 keys to the season:
1) starting pitching health. Obvious and most important.
2) Austin Riley. We need him to be a 4 WAR third baseman which is totally reasonable. Doesn’t have to get MVP votes just solid and above average. If he does revert to 2023 form that is gravy.
3) Michael Harris. We need him to be at least what he was in the second half last season which works out to 4+ WAR for a season. If he has a breakout year, again gravy.
I’m not putting shortstop or Albies here because I think those positions will underwhelm and there’s little hope for big seasons from middle infield.
Our pitching isn’t good enough to get us to 90 wins. We need 30+ wins from position players and we’re not going to get it without rebounds from Harris/Riley
Something like this:
Acuña – 6
Olson – 5
Baldwin – 4.5
Harris – 4.5
Riley – 4
Yaz – 2
Profar – 2
Albies – 2
Murphy – 1
Shortstop – 2
That’s 33 position WAR
I think that’s a great assessment, Stampton.
Yaz opens with a homer on his first pitch seen. 162-0.
And one from Gamel… so an undefeated playoff season as well.
Apparently there has been a player named Ben Gamel in the majors for a full decade and nobody told me. Apparently he is a Braves. Also if a 5 inning sample is enough to go on, he is a triple crown candidate
Can’t wait to see Yaz play at Truist. I have a feeling that, with his tendency to pull the ball in the air, he’s going to go to the Chop House quite often.
Who says we don’t have pitching depth? We pitched 7 pitchers today and only allowed 1 run. Very few of those pitchers were expected to be on the opening day roster. That is sure fire proof that we are loaded with great pitching. I’m with JonathanF on the undefeated season. If our non-roster pitchers can do this well, I can’t wait to see our other guys!
WOW. Such great optimism for the first Spring Training game. I like it. Ben Gamel was a MLB hitter for the Brewers and I was surprised we got him on a MiLB deal. He may be an eventual Ozuna replacement as a DH. I just hope Yaz doesn’t use all his juice in ST. I could live with him being a Nick Markakis type. Play hard every day and give average but consistent performance.
https://x.com/grantmcauley/status/2025282413320868298?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Didn’t realize he had so much red on his profile.
And he’s a lefty to boot.
Yeah, he’s really not talked about much in the pen, but in his first year as a reliever, he had a 3.79 FIP and plenty of red ink. He really should be in the conversation for the first 6 relievers or so in the pen. We could do a lot worse than Lee, Bummer, and Dodd with Harris and Wentz behind them.
wow. I guess my opinion of him was outdated from his starter days, because I did not think he was any good at all.
The Sunday game was broadcast on something called Braves on Gray, Gray being Gray Broadcasting, which has a chain on TV stations. Despite the rain delay, it was a relief to see that Brandon and CJ are back in the booth this season.
RAJ smoked a pitch at 112 mph, but it didn’t clear the fence and, as he spent a second or two admiring it, he only made it to first. This is not a criticism. There’s no point pulling a hammy in spring training. He looks soo good.
Sale looked fine. And speaking of looks, Austin Riley now has a beard.
The ABS thing went smoothly enough. From what I saw (the recording cut off early because of the rain delay) the umps were upheld every time.
JR Ritchie throwing 96 MPH gas and good off speed. If 7 of out 10 best prospects are pitchers, yeah, I better start seeing some stuff. JR, we’re gonna need you to throw about 245 innings this year, so be ready.
Of course, as soon as I say this, there will be 3 Tommy John announcements, but the pen is really, really deep. Iglesias, Suarez, Lee, Hernandez, Bummer, Dodd, Kinley, Payamps, and whatever long man you go with is really deep.
From there, Munoz, Jose Suarez, and Stratton are excellent 10-13 options.
Bowman said James Karinchak (3.10 career ERA in 165.2 career MLB IP) has his velocity back.
That’s a lot of guys who can get outs.
Shaping up to be our deepest pen in memory if not our best. Only concern is so few of these guys have options.
It is difficult to picture a less-promising way to keep your career in MLB going than by being the backup first baseman to Matt Olson. So I was surprised to see that the Braves signed Dom Smith 5 days ago. BRef projects him to get 343 PA this year, but I’m pretty sure if he does they won’t be in Atlanta. That said, he went 2 for 2 with a walk today in a 10-7 win over the Orioles. I hope he finds a nice place to live in Lawrenceville.
He owes us for this:
https://www.mlb.com/video/smith-s-walk-off-hr-in-11th
We added a year onto Sale’s contract, one year and $27 million. I’m glad we also finally broke the seal of paying someone more than $22 million.
The whole idea of not paying somebody more than some random figure because you would hurt Austin Riley and his 750 OPS’ feelings always seemed a little asinine.
With inflation, it was inevitable. $22 million ain’t what it used to be.
https://x.com/JonHeyman/status/2026386801523335326?s=20
When the Big Bear gets that Gold Glove, that $25K will be gone in one night at Pittsburgh’s nicest dive bar.
The only way Ozuna wins a Gold Glove is if they start awarding one for designated hitters. If he makes 2 or 3 foul ball snags in the dugout he could win. Nah, I still don’t see it
I’m generally optimistic, and I tend to assume that AA has a well thought out plan. But the failure to acquire a starting pitcher has even me pretty concerned. Rosenthal’s latest in The Athletic is quite critical of Alex’s failure to bolster the rotation this offseason. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7068867/2026/02/25/atlanta-braves-starting-rotation-injuries-depth/
It’s really hard for me to believe that fear of losing Joey Wentz (who is out of options) is the reason he hasn’t added a starter.
I’ve been telling myself that last year was an aberration thanks to terrible injury luck among the starters, but a repeat of last season’s disaster is looking more possible.
By the way, Cliff raised a great question earlier about Schelly’s and Hurston’s bone spurs. How did the team not know about this earlier? Bone spurs don’t just appear one day, I assume. Is there anyone here with medical knowledge who can explain this?
Bone spurs can appear in one day, though it violates our shared commitment to explain myself.
As to The Athletic, I was not DOB’s biggest fan, but I already miss him. Or at least, I miss having someone knowledgeable covering the Braves beat. Rosenthal is fine, but he covers thirty teams, and the piece I referenced doesn’t provide any insider-type insight into the Braves’ decision-making process.
I subscribed to the Athletic for Seth Emerson’s coverage of UGA football and DOB’s daily coverage of the Braves. Neither is doing that anymore; not sure the publication adds much value to what you can get elsewhere.
A bone spur can form gradually then break off and hang around in the tissues or joint space. That probably explains the sudden appearance of “loose bodies” in my opinion but I am no expert. So yeah, it seems like it could’ve happened in spring activities.
I think we should sign Zack Littell. Seems like he could be had for $15 million for one season at this point.
I’m surprised the Athletic has not yet replaced DOB.
I would offer Littell no more than 10 million for 1 year. He would only be the 5th best starter in our organization. And JR Ritchie may have something to say about that soon.
It appears The Athletic is cutting back on dedicated beat reporters all over. I won’t be surprised if DOB is simply not replaced.
B14 I agree with you in theory. Problem is I do not trust our starters to be healthy. Littell would’ve been our 2nd best pitcher in WAR last season. $15 million sounds steep but I would be surprised if $10 million gets it done. Bummer is making that.
They have replaced the Leeds Utd reporter twice in a couple of years so it may be more a matter of fit than a blanket policy to not replace people. Given size of the team’s fan base I would expect them to do something
DOB’s job was posted and it got kind of mocked. The salary was around the $70k range, which isn’t nothing, but feels low for the demands of that job.
There is zero money in journalism, unfortunately. You’re doing it for the love of the craft.
I’m sure the hardest part is being away from your family for the better part of 7-8 months a year.
Speaking of no money in journalism —
Win, win, win. Austin has his first spring dinger. Ozuna went 0-2 with a walk. Nobody gave up a run but Elder. Yaz OPSing 2.000 so far.
Business is booming at The Battery.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7070967/2026/02/25/atlanta-braves-annual-revenue-report-surging-finances/
I think we can stop giving innings (even in spring) to Carlos Carrasco. I’m going to be pretty unhappy if he starts real games this season. Surely there is another arm out there with higher upside for us than a guy who is pushing 40 and hasn’t been even replacement level in 4 years.
yeah, if Carrasco throws in a regular season game for the Brves this season we are in serous trouble.
Bryce Elder was an All-Star in 2023 because he produced a 2.97 ERA in 106 IP across 18 starts in the first half. In the second half, he struggled to a 5.11 ERA in 68 IP across 13 starts. Mac would always remark how silly it is that a guy who had a good first half and bad second half is an All-Star, but a guy with a bad first half and good second half is not.
In 2025, he had a 3.83 ERA and 3.44 FIP in his last 9 starts. If he had done that in his first 9 starts, we’re probably looking at Elder as an All-Star candidate in 2025 as well. And the narrative around Elder is probably completely different if he somehow managed to become a two-time All-Star.
He’s such an enigma. He had 15 quality starts last year. But he just had so many starts where he didn’t get out of the 5th inning, and some where he didn’t get out of the freaking 3rd inning. I don’t hate him as much as the Twitter birds do and I’m not really ready to give up on an innings eater who has had repeated flashes of brilliance.
My August thoughts are this are here: https://bravesjournal.com/2025/08/21/off-day-musings/ (below the Riley stuff). I’m going to do a piece soon with an expanded version of standard deviantion of game score.
I don’t hate Elder. My initial thought on his varied success was that as a soft tosser his location has to be near perfect to win and sometimes he lost it. But I had mentioned last year that his fastball looked a lot better in the 2nd half. And if you go into the game breakdowns on Savant, that seems to hold up. Early in the year, he was throwing a 91 mph 4-seamer against a 91 mph sinker, an 86 mph changeup, and an 84 mph slider. That pitch mix is too tight in velocity. The split on the fastball to change isn’t enough to get anyone out in front on the change. Later in the year, during his good run, he was throwing a 94 mph 4-seamer. Suddenly, you have a decent spread vs the offspeed stuff. The sinker seemed to stay the same. He also threw the 4-seamer a lot more, and yeah why wouldn’t you? I believe he threw the change less, but I’m not sure. So something got coached up or figured out. If he can go 94 mph fastball, 92 mph sinker and 83 mph slider as his top 3 pitches that is a really nice mix of velocities and movement.
Jonathan, you nailed it. That graph says it all. He’s usually on, but when he’s off, he’s wayyyy off.
Stampton, his velocity was indeed up to end the season.
I’ve always wanted to like Elder. I have an affinity for starters who succeed by location, changing speeds, late movement, and inducing weak contact. After all, I watched almost every Maddux and Glavine start for well over a decade. I’ve wanted to see that kind of success in other guys who rely on that mix rather than high heat and swing and miss, and I’ve been continually disappointed. The problem is that Maddux is a top five all time starter and Glavine is a first ballot hall of famer. It’s dumb to expect that kind of success from anyone.
Truth is, I know that pitchers who induce a lot of swing and miss have a much better chance of success than the command and control, weak contact guys. There is a small margin for error if you don’t get many whiffs. But stampton’s data gives me more hope for Elder. He does need to change speeds more effectively to keep hitters off stride. Sounds like Elder may be onto something with his study of mechanics leading to an uptick in velocity on his four seamer.
Yes. I tried to post some images showing his velocity splits early in the year and late but I am clueless how to do it. It’s like a totally different game plan. He went from a cluster of mediocre stuff right in the same 6-7 (heh) mph window to two clusters with a nice split in between. Has to be intentional and it paid off. If he can just keep doing that I think we might have our own Zach Littell.
Upticks in velocity are either the sign of good coaching or reservations on James Andrews’ operating table.
I’m furiously working on my inconsistency update post but it probably won’t be ready before tomorrow.
Wikipedia says Dr. Andrews (age 83) is retired now. It also says he was an SEC champion in the pole vault at LSU. He worked in Columbus for several years before moving to Birmingham. My dad used to do checkups on his patients to make sure they were healthy enough for surgery. Once when I was in high school, my dad asked him to look at my knee, which I had hurt running track. After I had waited for a couple of hours, he came in, looked at the clipboard showing what his assistant had written, and squeezed, pressed, and bent my leg, then said, “If it hurts, don’t run” and left. He was perfectly pleasant, I knew he had fit me in on short notice as a favor, and I suppose his advice was accurate, but I was underwhelmed.
That’s a great story. To my discredit, I originally wrote that post as Frank Jobe,not James Andrews, and stopped myself from posting while thinking… wait, is Jobe still alive? (He died in 2014 at age 88.) What I learn from this is that orthopedic surgery is a marker of long life… if you’re the surgeon.
Apparently, Dr. Neal ElAttrache is today’s Andrews, and he works at the Jobe Institute. He’s five years younger than me.
Here’s an article on Elder that is crap. Sorry if one of you wrote it:
https://housethathankbuilt.com/recent-uptick-in-braves-belief-of-bryce-elder-feels-like-grasping-at-straws?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=pushly_notifications&utm_campaign=112099389&page_source=pushly_notifications
It isn’t just “recency bias”. Look, if he unlocked something, he unlocked something, Elder had some varied success with a crummy pitch mix. You can’t just throw 4 mediocre offerings in the same 6 mph range and get major league hitters out. Location is important but pitching is three-dimensional. You have to make them guess in all dimensions. If they only have to adjust in two dimensions, they can easily load up on a rough location and crush you. If you can locate, and you have two offerings at 92-94 that break differently and a third offering that also breaks differently but also times differently, you can succeed. Now, I can’t just load up and guess half the plate. Now I have to guess location and timing. It’s all read and react, sacrificing timing or location one way or the other, and you’re going to get a lot of weak contact. This works even if the top end stuff can’t blow past a big league hitter, as long as you don’t tip.
An interesting aside–everyone who wants to be cutting edge should put major resources into AI analysis of pitch tipping. The tradition was to see if some veteran or manager could pick up on a tip. AI can give you data on pitch tipping in seconds over large data sets. This season I expect to see more of that. Hope we are leading the curve.
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