On AA
I think we can all now agree that he isn’t a supergenius who has found the cheat code to being a General Manager. Instead, he’s a General Manager. At a broad level, I think we can agree that his goals are our goals. It’s when we drill down on the best way to achieve those goals that some of you jump ship. Disagreement on this doesn’t make him wrong and you right. He might be privy to facts you aren’t. Your methodology might be more short-sighted than his, or more future-oriented than his. Go ahead and criticize him, bitterly if you like. The same for the rest of Braves management. This is the Internet, after all. Somebody is always wrong.
On Last Night
One more note. Both teams scored their 8 runs in the 8th inning on 8 hits. In the 1351 8 run innings to which we have access to the hit numbers before this year, only 226 were on 8 hits. Also, for those who don’t read the comments, teams that hit two three-run homers in an inning are now 164-16.
On Friday Day Games
Retrosheet only has consistent data on game start times after 1987. This seems to be the first regular season day game on a Friday ever in Cincinnati. Of course it is to facilitate the gimmick game tomorrow in Bristol, TN. Fine.
The Game
Bryce Elder against Brady Singer. Singer is a worse pitcher than it seems like he ought to be, and Elder is a better pitcher than it seems like he ought to be, but this was a starting pitching matchup that favored the Reds. What both of them do, though, is work fast. The first four innings took 50 minutes. Singer ended up going 6 without giving up any runs.
The first run scored in the bottom of the 6th when Matt McClain singled in Will Benson, the first Red to reach scoring position. (In the interest of full disclosure, my sister was in Benson’s father’s class at Westminster. I will also disclose that I had a cheese sandwich for lunch. Beyond that, I am a complete mystery.) Elder went 6 2/3 excellent innings. Dylan Dodd replaced him and promptly gave up a two run homer to Benson to make it 3-0.
The eighth inning was less friendly today. The Braves got two on against Santillan, but a Riley strikeout (boy is he looking bad now) and a Baldwin drive run down in the gap ended the threat.
The 9th presented another opportunity. Ozuna walked and Harris singled to bring the tying run to the plate with no outs against Reds closer Emilio Pagan. Ozzie singled Ozuna in to make it 3-1 with men on first and third. Ozzie stole 2nd to bring the tying run to scoring position. White struck out for the first out. Williams hit a ball to the wall to make it 3-2. Profar grounded out to make a 3-2 final. 100 wins is now impossible.
Tomorrow in Bristol for what is supposed to be the best-attended baseball game ever. I promise not to make a single auto-related pun in the recap.
Only 2 more years and 30 million more dollars of Jurickson Profar.
https://x.com/dmeasrecruiting/status/1951247550599627141?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Doug Mientkwiecz, yes, the one with the OPS+ 100 at 1B for his career, has decided he hates low batting averages and, I guess, Jeff Passan. Hell of a thread.
I’m sure his market was terrible, but who cares? Even if you get someone’s 20th best prospect, with a minuscule chance of reaching the majors, that’s still better than getting absolutely nothing when he walks in a few months.
https://x.com/grantmcauley/status/1951343770550866033
The team gets a draft pick if Drake wins Rookie of the Year, but instead the manager — who is probably gone after this year — is splitting his time with Ozuna, who is almost certainly gone after this year.
There was gonna be a year along this run where the team’s identity as a contender or rebuilder couldn’t be established, and I think this is that year. This team is neither acting like a contender nor a rebuilder, and that has got to be one of the most frustrating spots for a fan.
But yes, Baldwin is currently -115 with Misiorowski in second place at +115 for ROY odds. If they mess this up, so help me god…
The Yankees released Marcus Stroman after their deadline acquisitions. Since we are collecting other teams’ veteran castoffs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a Braves uniform soon.
Yep. Always wanted him in a Braves uni. So it would make sense if we finally get him when he’s washed up.
On AA, I think he has always had a defensible rationale for what he has done. To be perfectly fair to him, it is possible that he had an optimal process and just got really unlucky the same way he got really lucky trading for 3 random outfielders who all played like all stars out of the blue in 2021.
Letting Freddie go was defensible based on average aging curves. And heck, he is mediocre in his 4th year and may be worse in his 5th and 6th years while Olson continues to be an all-star.
Trading for Murphy, I hated then and now, but maybe it seemed to be the best way to get a failed 2022 squad over the hump based on which star players could reasonably be acquired as upgrades.
Maybe Fried projected to break down and be mediocre (choke). Maybe pitching in general is a terrible free agency bet, and it’s better to volume draft, even knowing the odds aren’t good. And maybe we’re just way below expectancy on how many of those pan out.
Obviously Jared Kelenic couldn’t possibly have been predicted to peak at 23. His mid 50% of outcomes probably all looked like playable starting outfielder, and the top 25% looked like all star.
All this is possible, but it feels a lot more real when two or three moves you hated seemed to really work out horribly and kill the spirit of the team. My personal philosophy is to draft hitting and then we draft pitching and it fails. My priors were my suspicion that the moves were terrible and then they were terrible. So I have my own biases coloring things sure.
But we are all in agreement I assume that we hope that if AA stays around, the luck starts breaking his way or he figures out how to manage differently. He does at least have a track record of learning from mistakes.
You didn’t mention Dansby and I think that’s where the whole process breaks down. One could argue Sale for Fried, Olson for Freddie, Murphy for Contreras but Arcia/Allen for Dansby??? Note that the winning teams have a SS who can field and hit. Plus Dansby was a spark. And he was the one prospect we got the best deal on,
Laureano would have been better than Profar and cheaper and we already had him.
Someone here said “develop hitting and buy pitching”. The Braves are trying to do the opposite only they DIDN’T buy hitting. Until they find a way to get that spark back, the Braves will not contend.
Managers and general managers are hired to be fired. Alas, promises are made to be broken.
Jonathan, start your engine.
The Rockies — the club that perpetually overvalues its talent to the point they usually are inert at the deadline — managed to trade Jake Bird, who has been hot garbage since being lit up at Truist on June 13. (Bird gave up a grand slam for the Yankees tonight, continuing his plummet.) I don’t buy for a second that AA couldn’t find proper value for Iglesias when the Rox located a taker for Bird. Either he’s covering up for ownership putting the kibosh on trades because it believes the fans are suckers and somehow keeping Ozuna and Iglesias will make a difference in ticket sales down the stretch … or he massively overvalued the talent on hand to the point of delusion. Either way, something’s rotten in the state of Bravesmark.
AA can be bad at his job (Profar, bullpen malpractice) and ownership can be terrible, too. Two things can be true at the same time. And a third — Snitker doesn’t know what he’s doing, e.g. not playing Baldwin at least four out of five days. Out of the lineup Wednesday AND Thursday? Launch that moron into the damned sun.
Charlie Morton got traded for actually a half way decent relief prospect. Iglesias could have definitely been traded. AA just didn’t get the deal he wanted.
I’m a little disappointed that you will not be making auto related puns. I’m looking forward to seeing Strider pitch tomorrow. I just hope he doesn’t run out of gas.
I am still neutral on AA not dismantling the team and not surprised. My biggest problem this year with AA has been his commitment to building a bullpen. That seemed to be his biggest focus in years past and it paid off. Given all that though, I don’t think any team could overcome the loss of all 5 starting pitchers from the first of the year
Rain delay is definitely on brand for 2025
So, are there fireworks after the game?
Looks like they’re playing this game on the deck of the Pequod.
Hope nobody gets hurt.
Suspended. Game Thread for tomorrow