What Is The Boundary Between “Bad” and “Unlucky”?
As a statistician formerly in good standing, I am professionally obliged to say there is no such boundary. More precisely, we make up boundaries with no particular justification. A team that is, in competence, a 0.500 team will, every eight years or so, find itself 40-52 or worse after 92 games. Now that’s only once every eight years, but that’s not hugely unusual.
Of course, teams that are really 0.450 teams will find themselves at 40-52 or worse 4 years out of every ten, so the Braves record coming into tonight is much more consonant with a 73 win team than with a 81 win team. And 0.55 winning teams only find themselves unlucky enough to be 40-52 or worse 2 times every 100 years. So when Jim Carrey says in Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” for a one-in-a-million probability, this is 10,000 times more likely than that. I’m telling you there is a chance that this is a fantastically unlucky 90 win team.
ASG Stuff
I will pat myself on the back for delaying my ASG diatribe as long as I have this year. I am on record annually as saying I hate the All-Star game, and I hate the machinations over who will play in it and I especially hate anything to do with the Home Run Derby. The fact that Ronald Acuña Jr. has decided not to play in the HR Derby is great for whatever reeason he has; substituting Matt Olson for him doesn’t bother quite as much as I thought it would. I’m mellowing.
The Lou
I am not a big fan of Nelly, the St. Louis-based rapper who apparently popularized the sobriquet “The Lou” for St. Louis which graces the Cardinals’ City Connect jerseys. I always took “The ATL” to be a reference to the airport as much as to the city. “The Lou” sounds to me a little like “Frisco” — the sort of thing no local would ever use. But I’m willing to mit that I may be outside the zeitgeist here. On the other hand, if it is also meant to honor Lou Brock, I approve.
Chip
I thought about listening to Chip Caray for at least one game of this series. But my heart just isn’t in it. If you don’t know, Chip got in a little Internet hot water a few weeks ago for a verbal stumble that I will defend him for… it was nothing more than a simple reading slip. I have now publically defended Chip Caray against some critics. To reward myself for my good deed, I don’t have to listen to him.
RISP
I’m making progress on my piece on hitting with runners in scoring position. Expect something during the All-Star break.
The Game
Either sleep is overrated, or batting practice is. The Braves didn’t get to St. Louis until 5 am just played without the benefit of BP. Even Michael Harris II got a hit. Sean Murphy, playing DH, hit two homers. But Sherlocks was giving up runs as well, and a 6-2 ead got whittled to 6-5. with 19 hits by the two teams through 4 1/2 innings, at which point both teams entered hibernation mode. The Saints and The Other Austin used 27 pitches to get through the 4th, 5th and 6th.
Cox walked the first batter he faced in the 7th, though, which revived the spectre of Rafael Montero. A quick single caused a rally which ended in a Bravesian fizzle: three popups.
The Braves had the glimmer of an insurance run with a leadoff double from RAJ. But… nah. So Raisel Iglesias tried to complete an odyssey back by taking a one-run lead into the 8th. A line drive from Masyn Wynn got one out. An Alec Burleson flyour made it two outs. And a Willson Contreras K ended it.
Austin Riley left the game with “lower abdominal tightness.” I would point out that men of a certain age have various lower abdominal problems that afflict us — for those addicted to what the kids call TMI, I can currently relate. But I’m guessing this is closer to what we used to snicker and call a “groin pull.”
To bring this essay full circle, the Braves are now 41-52 and the Cardinals are 50-45. But the Cardinals in this game played a lot like the Braves have played all season.
Early game tomorrow @ 2:15 EDT. The Braves will apparently have decided who is pitching by then against Erick Fedde.
I hate the current All-Star game – the rosters are too big and everybody gets to play, even the “All-Stars” that were last minute additions that no one has ever heard of. At least this year, the players will finally resume wearing their own jerseys.
That said, when the All-Star game came to town in 2000, I really wanted to go, but couldn’t justify the $325 my scalper wanted for a seat in the outfield. So I paid $25 for a standing room only ticket for the home run derby the night before. I stood 5 hours in the rain in left-center and loved every minute of it, even if I didn’t catch a ball.
But the highlight was that afternoon when we went to the All-Star Expo in the World Congress Center. It was a bit like Cooperstown comes to the ATL. I was a kid in Mobile, AL in the 60’s when the Cards or the Tigers were on TV on Saturdays almost every week. This resulted in Lou Brock becoming my favorite player. So about 30 odd years later when I walked into the expo and saw Lou Brock talking to a bunch of kids, I was on the moon.
So hate the ASG, but go the to the Capital One All-Star Village. You might see your favorite Hall of Famer.
That’s a very good point that I’ll clear up in today’s recap. Thanks.
I still maintain that the MLB ASG is the best one, because playing second base is playing second base, regardless of who the other eight guys around you are. Pitcher vs batter is basically the same as any other major league game, with the exception of how many times the pitcher changes. But that’s offset by the quality of the substitutes, so …
I think it’s a little less exciting since interleague play became the norm, because we’ve lost the idea that the hitters have probably never seen this ace before. But that’s minor nitpicking.
I’d actually missed the story about Chip. Without listening to the clip, because I generally avoid digging too deep into that stuff, I agree that it seems pretty obvious that it’s a simple verbal slip. That being said, it seems weird that he doesn’t seem to have come out and made a statement saying so and apologizing that his slip could be offensive. Just ignoring it feels worse than immediately responding with “I’m so sorry, that’s a very unfortunate misread.”
Being the best ASG is a little like being the best Keurig coffee. It’s still not any good, but at least it resembles the real thing.
As to Chip, I’m going to use my temporary glow of virtue to refrain from agreeing with you and making some crack about the man’s character and the character of the Cardinals in general. I’m such a saint sometimes.
Have I seen Sherlocks Holmes before, or is that new?
I count six references, all this year. People love the Kenny Powers reference, but I’m sticking with Sherlocks.
Welcome to the Braves, Wentz! Two strong innings to start your delayed Braves career.
Also, I really like Wiley as a commentator. CJ has been excellent anyway, I think. Great guys to listen to.
Agreed about Wiley.
Three scoreless innings for Wentz with 6 K’s. Nice work.
Told you guys that Joey Wentz draft choice would pay quick dividends
Joey Wentz – MVP candidate and savior of Atlanta’s season. Just need 30 more appearances like this – preferably 6 or more innings.
Someone will have to prove to me this umpire doesn’t have money on the Cardinals today based on his eighth-inning strike zone.
Perhaps the manager might want to say something? Or not; it’s hot out there in the sun.
Murphy is really making me feel good about the DH/C platoon we all envision for 2026 which means Thoppy will do something stupid like sign Ozuna for another year at $15MM and keep playing Baldwin 60% of games
It’s a reason why there’s a rational argument for trading Murphy because it would force Baldwin to play and potentially save the organization from its own stupidity. (Also, there’s the distinct possibility that with next year being his age-31 season and little ability to hit for average, that you’d be dealing Murphy at peak value. If you can fix a middle-infield spot for Murphy long-term, you do it, IMO.)
Yeah I would jump at a MLB ready 2B or SS for Murphy. Not sure who would want to do that, but it’s a given.
Nice of the offense to start joining us this week. Like, where’ve you been guys, we needed this 2 months ago.
Don’t know how they’re going to manage a bullpen game tomorrow, the staff has to be shot after the last 2 games.
Recapped
Acuna is right at a homer every 15 plate appearances this year, which is 40 homers over 600 PAs. I’m glad he figured out how to come back.