Zach Wheeler faced off against Chris Sale, so, naturally, it was a slugfest.
I hate facing Wheeler; he normally just kills us. Coming into tonight, he had a 2.95 ERA in 189 innings against the Braves.
But tonight, he hit the showers with an ugly line of five earned on eight hits in just 5 1/3, his worst performance against us since September 12, 2023, when he yielded six runs in five innings. Those are the only two times he’s given up that many to us since signing with the Phillies in the 2019-2020 offseason, and brother, I’ll take it.
But what Wheeler was pleased to yield, Chris Sale just as quickly coughed up, getting knocked out in the fifth inning after giving up five runs of his own. Pretty much all the damage was done by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos; the former had a triple and a homer and the latter had two doubles, accounting for six of the team’s nine hits and all five of their RBI.
Sale’s got a 6.75 ERA in three starts; he hasn’t recorded more than 15 outs or given up fewer than three runs in any of them. Tonight, he was sitting at 91-93 with his fastball. Also, interestingly, Mike Petriello notices his arm angle is much lower than usual. We’ll see whether Bravda makes any excuses for him. Any silence would be deafening.
But that’s the negatives. There were a lot of positives to the game! All of the starters hit safely, and Riley and Murphy had two hits apiece; Riley had two doubles and one RBI and Murphy had a homer and 4 RBI of his own.
Jarred Kelenic, astonishingly, was 1-1 with three walks, two runs, and a really nice diving catch in right. Even Orlando Arcia was 1-3 with a walk!
And the bullpen was pretty impressive. Enyel de los Santos came on the fifth to bail out Sale, and he did a serviceable job in the Anthony Varvaro role. Dylan Lee and Daysbel Hernandez then looked pretty impressive, Lee touching 97 with his fastball and Hernandez sitting at 98 with some nasty high cheese. Finally, Raisel Iglesias came in and shut the door.
In general, it was the kind of game that felt like this lineup doing what it’s capable of. The team certainly looked more relaxed at home than they did on the West Coast. Two more here in Atlanta, then down to the Florida coast to play the Rays in their temporary spring training digs. Get ready for some wild weather.
One final note: during the game, the Braves picked up Rafael Montero from the Astros in what seems to have mostly been a salary dump; The Braves will send a PTBNL over, and the Astros are giving us cash “to cover the majority” of his salary. According to Savant, he’s still getting whiffs, so, for a minor deal, this seems like a net positive. (Update: per the AP (with h/t to MLBTR) the Braves are still on the hook for $3 million. So, it’s not complete chump change.)
A comeback win! How ’bout that!

Zach Wheeler always feels like the one who got away, being from Smyrna. Even though we never seemed to express any interest, it seemed like we should’ve. After having some injury issues early in his career, he had put together 2 very strong seasons and he had developed a 97-plus mph heater with life. He ended up signing for something downright reasonable for a 29 yo potential ace pitcher. And if we’d had him in 2020, chances are it would’ve carried us into the World Series. Instead, we signed Cole Hamels (for not that much less honestly) and then we signed Charlie Morton (who was pretty darn good for us but no ace). To me, that string of decisions to save on pitching by signing veterans for a few million less than we possibly could’ve signed Wheeler contributed to a series of playoff disappointments where we had a dumpster fire on the mound for at least part of it. And the fact that he pitched for our opponent instead of us in two of those made it so much worse.
So every time we face Wheeler, I think of that, and it stings all the more that he utterly dominates us–not that it was hard to do last year. So yeah, scoring 5 off Wheeler is like winning the lottery. Let’s hope this is the start of something rather than a flash in the pan like our 10 run outburst. I’m very encouraged at Murphy’s performance. We absolutely need him to return to 2022-2023 form with how long we are obligated to him and how little we (apparently) are willing to spend on improvements.
Even not drafting Wheeler, he went to the Phillies on a 5/$118 deal in 12/2019. That would have been an easy contract for the Braves to dish out. He produced 25 WAR over those five years. What a steal.
The Wheeler deal is one of the best free agent signings in the history of baseball, up there with the Nats getting Scherzer. But no one could ever have predicted he’d be this consistently good; he had good stuff but he spent 2013-2019 with the Mets with a combined ERA+ of 100, and he missed 2015 and 2016 with injury. The Phillies deserve a ton of credit for helping him unlock his potential.
But to your broader point, yeah. The Braves clearly have an organizational policy going back to Schuerholz that they basically won’t spend at the top of the free agent market – they essentially haven’t done that since Maddux, and even Maddux quite explicitly gave them a discount.
The policy makes sense as a rule of thumb. But I think overall the Braves have shown themselves to be penny wise, pound foolish. Particularly because their unwillingness to spend on free agents has led to a desperately frantic strategy towards player extensions, from Chris Johnson and Dan Uggla to Sean Murphy and Matt Olson. They haven’t hedged their risk nearly as effectively as they thought they had.
They really do need to be willing to spend money on free agents, occasionally, and not just on sneaky prove-it contracts with guys the market doesn’t see as top talent, like Ozuna and Donaldson and Profar. Sometimes, the simplest decision is the right one: the guy who costs the money is the guy who’s worth the money.
I agree that you or I couldn’t have predicted he’d be this good, but some additional information that is only of personal relevance is that I have a good buddy that I talk pitching prospects with, and when I watched Wheeler pitch against the Braves in 2019, I texted him and said “Wheeler throws 97 with run and locates it?!? How does anyone hit this guy?” I was very high on him back then and would’ve felt very confident in the ROI on that same deal. Even if he’d been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for the life of it, it would’ve been a lot better than what we got out of bargain vets who, in Hamels case, couldn’t even pitch 5 innings for us. No, I didn’t think he’d be a 7 WAR pitcher, but betting on a 29 yo starter to improve is usually safe.
Let me say to be fair, without the benefit of hindsight, that you could make a similar but weaker argument for Jack Flaherty who had a similar career through age 29 but was coming off of just one very strong season instead of 2. In his case, he signed for much less, and that’s a guy that you need to pounce on if you’re trying to build a rotation without paying Fried or Snell dollars.
I had Flaherty on my list, too. He made a ton of sense for us. The Braves’ relative catatonia this offseason was discouraging for a lot of reasons, and to me it just indicated a failure of strategic planning.
Now MLBTR is asking if we should extend Schwell. Whether we do will say a lot about how the FO views their ability to spend on the team.
I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen from Daysbel. His whiff rate is slightly above average, his fastball is regularly sitting 97-98 mph, he hasn’t issued any walks yet, and he’s doing a great job limiting hard contact (with an excellent .218 xwOBACON). Command and control have always been areas of concern for him, but they seem better so far in 2025. Clearly the Braves think highly of him and saw him as essentially replacing Jiménez as a high leverage guy for this year, and I’m buying in, too.
Daysbel looks really good. I wonder why they didn’t just hide Neris in long relief until he demonstrated he had regained his form. It’s really weird to bring him in on Opening Day in high leverage and then just DFA him. Did we really learn that much about Daysbel in the last week that we didn’t know when the season started?
https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1910046446876787196
Thoughts? There’s not much in his profile so far that suggests this is a mirage. He’s striking out over a batter an inning, walking less than 2 per 9, and his results are Cy Young-contending. He’s not throwing so hard you’re worried about his health like Strider. I’d probably give him $75M like they gave Strider.
Would do it yesterday. Should’ve extended Fried when he was young.
Yeah, he commands a bunch of really good pitches – this is blasphemous, but kinda like a young John Smoltz. Lock him up, pronto.
Arcia’s defense isn’t helping his case for playing time
Riley is broken.
First game in person this year. Offense is just as bad live, if not worse lol. Michael Harris and Austin Riley are the suck right now.
Yeah, he just must not lead off.
I know Holmes had Schwarber struck out, but there is no logical reason for him to come out for the fifth. He got pulled after one hitter so he shouldn’t have started the inning the third time against at the lineup anyway. I love how we lean on analytics until we don’t.
Kenneth Powers going third time through the order seems dicey. But so does middle relief. Big half inning here.
Yup, got quite an outing from Kenny Powers tonight.
Uh, ok Orlando. I need to trash talk him more I guess
Money Mike with two sac flies in the past couple days. Given our struggles bringing men home from third with fewer than two outs, I’m happy about that.
We sure cough up leads quickly this season.
Almost like it’s a lousy team or something.
It would appear so
Austin!
A bomb.
Guess those 6 LOB ruffled his feathers…
MH2 gives me strong Heyward vibes
Our bullpen…smh
Too many culprits to fire them all into the sun
The culprits are those responsible for forcing the team to stay under the CBT and thus put together this cheap bullpen.
I can’t believe we lost to Harper and Turner again. Don’t we ever learn??? Why give Harper anything to hit in that situation? Unbelievable. Why not all sliders???
Great point ONIO. It seems like our bullpen doesn’t have anyone outside of Daysbel that has a plus fastball. Elevating mediocre pitchers to high leverage because of injuries or free agent losses doesn’t make them actual high leverage relievers.
I don’t really blame the pen, although I fear we’re past Iglesias’ expiration date. If you score three runs or less every game you’re going to lose a lot of games.
Surprised nobody is bitching about Snit calling for a bunt. I’ll step up and fill the void. Bunting is terrible. Snitker is terrible. Matt Olson is terrible. See y’all tomorrow night.
Recapped