The 2023 Atlanta Braves achieved all they did, in part, because of the emergence of Bryce Elder in the starting rotation. With two weeks remaining in Spring Training, Elder was sent to AAA Gwinnett. The young-right hander was the Opening Day starter for the Stripers, but made 31 starts in Atlanta. He even made the All-Star team.
Elder’s season really was the tale of two halves. Through the first half of the season, Elder was 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA and was a vital cog in the Braves having a stranglehold on the NL East and the MLB by the break. His FIP always hovered between 1.0 and 1.35 above his ERA and advanced metrics people clamored that he would eventually regress to the mean.
Annoying little brother
When he was called up because Max Fried was injured, I wrote here that Elder would succeed if he could channel his inner little brother.
Little brother’s always seem to poke and prod and illicit a response from their big brother that gets the big brother in trouble. Well, Elder channeled that little brother pretty well through his first 18 starts.
Unfortunately, the metrics wonks were right. In the second half of the season, Elder struggled to command the zone. He didn’t nibble near as effectively. And like that little brother, he got the crap kicked out of him a few times along the way. The good news with Elder is he threw at least five innings 26 times. The bad news is that his last two starts only lasted 3.2 innings. And the playoff loss to the Philthies lasted just 2.2 innings. That start was a head-scratcher!
Respect your (Bryce) Elder
Fatigue? Perhaps, Bryce had never logged this many innings. However, with someone like Bryce Elder, the plate ump matters and his ability to stay out of the middle of the zone matters, too. 2023 was a great season for Elder. According to Baseball Reference, he had a 2.9 WAR season. Bryce has every reason to feel confident that he can stay in the Braves 2024 plans as a back of the rotation arm. I will take 12-4 from my fifth starter every day!
It’s easy to forget now, but the Braves had very little confidence in Elder prior to his strong showing in the first half. He was sent back down to Gwinnett during Spring Training, with Shuster and Dodd making the Opening Day roster. Elder was only called up because Fried hit the 15-day IL.
Elder’s strong first half performance and All-Star selection may be enough to convince the Braves that he deserves to stick around, and it’s true that without him, the Braves likely wouldn’t have been so successful this year. To his credit, he helped solidify a pretty banged-up rotation.
That said, his second half was ROUGH. Elder made 15 starts from July 3 through the end of the regular season, and had an xFIP above 5.00 in 10 of them. During this stretch his groundball rate dropped, his HR/FB rate increased, and his command seemed to waver (especially with his slider).
I do think Elder has the ability to be a solid #5, but he’s got some things to work on. It’ll be interesting to see how Elder does next year, and what the Braves do if Waldrep and/or Smith-Shawver develop and cement themselves in the rotation.
Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Elder have rotation spots heading into 2024. I’d love to see AA go get a couple of front line starters. If he does not, and depending on what Charlie Morton does, A.S.S. and Waldrep could be rotation contenders as early as next season.
I imagine Elder will find a way to grow and be effective again next year, eating innings and annoying hitters when he avoids the middle of the zone.
Bryce is precisely the kind of player we should trade now when value is high. He has “Chuck James” written all over him.
Agreed. Relying on Bryce Jurrjens is a bad idea.
https://x.com/talkinbaseball_/status/1721242713088012575?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Thank goodness.
That’s interesting. AA has an alternative or two in mind for left field, I’m sure, but I don’t know who that ought to be. I’m not excited about Bellinger. Who might be available via trade?
Soon we’ll be reading reports of all the fly balls Grissom is shagging this offseason.
A lot of players can produce what Eddie did, possibly even Forrest Wall. I like Kiermaier for the same dollars. Grissom is a possibility. Some assortment to include Ozuna if you can stomach him in left. He’s not actually worse than Rosario out there if you believe dWAR. That would buy Murphy more ABs if you think not playing every day was his problem.
I have no problem going that route and spending that $9M elsewhere. Skimping on LF, letting Morton walk, and spending that $30 mil for an ace like Nola would have way more impact on our playoff chances than having a Morton who won’t be available and a Rosario who will swing at balls in the dirt all NLDS.
Smart $ points to a platoon in LF.
Bring back Joc. The team needs a little attitude.
https://x.com/Braves/status/1721285554208157780?s=20
Little surprised but only a little.
Passan seems to suggest Morton’s option was declined.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38809664/mlb-offseason-2023-free-agents-shohei-ohtani-dodgers-rangers
I would only bring back Charlie at a much reduced price. I love Charlie but even 15m is a little too high for me.
Dansby won his second consecutive Gold Glove at short. None of the Braves who were nominated for the award won.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10096221-mlb-gold-glove-awards-2023-full-list-of-winners-and-reaction?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
Counsell to the Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/5037110/2023/11/06/craig-counsell-cubs-brewers-manager/
Charlie in; Yates out
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/braves-exercise-club-option-on-charlie-morton-expected-to-decline-club-option-on-kirby-yates.html
I don’t get what Counsell brings to the table to be worth $8M a year. Are they now going to look at managers in a “cost per WAR” way? Obviously we don’t know the inner workings of the clubhouse, but I wonder what Counsell is doing vs. Ross.
I think it has more to do with expectations. Some very successful managers get players to live up to their potential but some teams want the few managers who get players to perform beyond their potential. And I’m not even sure any of that can be attributed to the manager. This may be the perception with Counsell (re: the Brewers).
Yeah, he’s certainly done quite well. And admittedly, if he squeezes out a couple extra wins, then $8M is chump change.