We’ve made it through the Hector Olivera trade and the Andrelton Simmons trade and yet, somehow the Braves are still in the positive in terms of production value. In today’s piece, “The Braves Rebuild, 2016-17 Offseason Trades”, the deals aren’t as flashy but the impact in production value is still there. If you’re not caught up, here are the first 4 pieces in the series (I’d recommend reading them before proceeding):
- Part 1: Braves Rebuild, 2014-15 Offseason : Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 2: Braves Rebuild, 2015 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 3: Braves Rebuild, 2015-16 Offseason: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 4: Braves Rebuild 2016 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
The Braves Rebuild, 2016-17 Offseason Trades
- Traded Max Povse and Rob Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received Tyler Pike and Alex Jackson.
- Traded Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.
- Traded Brady Feigl and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.
- Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara.
- Traded Carlos Portuondo and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Kevin Franklin and Brandon Phillips.
The Braves Rebuild, 2016-17 Offseason Trades: Value Outgoing
- Max Povse and Rob Whalen: -0.2 fWAR, .85 MM cost, -1.6 MM value
- Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis, John Gant: 1.8 fWAR, 1.8 MM cost, 14.4 MM value
- Brady Feigl and Tyrell Jenkins: No MLB experience (after Braves): 0 cost
- Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith: 4.4 fWAR, 4 MM cost, 35.2 MM value
- Carlos Portuondo and Andrew McKirahan: No MLB experience (after Braves): 0 cost
Outgoing Production: 6 fWAR, 48MM value
Total Cost: 6.65 MM
41.35 MM of lost production
Value Incoming
- Tyler Pike and Alex Jackson: -0.3 fWAR, .5 MM cost, -2.4 MM cost
- Jaime Garcia: 1.4 fWAR, 8 MM cost, 11.2 MM value
- Luke Jackson: 1.7 fWAR, 2.9 MM cost, 13.6 MM value
- Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara: 1 fWAR, 0.5 MM cost, 8 MM value
- Kevin Franklin and Brandon Phillips: 1.5 fWAR, 1 MM cost, 12 MM value
Incoming Production: 5.3 fWAR, 42.4 MM value
Total Cost:12.9 MM
29.5 MM of gained production
Recap
At the time, I felt like I was the only guy on the planet that wasn’t a fan of the Luiz Gohara trade. Sure, I’d read the glowing scouting reports and comp to C.C. Sabathia, but I’d also read some lackluster reports on his character. I’ll not get too much into that, but what I do know is Mallex’s character was easy to cheer for and I thought his skillset was valuable to have on a roster. John Gant seemed like a guy with real potential to be a back-end starter/high end reliever that Coppy traded too quickly, but no one would’ve known that Gant had 99 MPH up his sleeve. Those 2 guys make up the bulk of the outgoing value.
Without the good season from Brandon Phillips (another guy that was fun to watch) and the emergence of Luke Jackson‘s slider, this would’ve been a bleak part of our series, but they’ve added value for little cost and that makes a big difference. Still, today’s piece comes out in the negative in terms of production. Here’s the total from the first 5 parts:
- +59.03 MM of gained production in Part 1
- -79.5 MM of gained production in Part 2
- +27.9 MM of gained production in Part 3
- -2.975 of gained production in Part 4
- -11.85 MM of gained production in Part 5
Total: -7.395 of gained production
However, we’ve added Luke Jackson, Alex Jackson, and Thomas Burrows to the list of unknown future values. Here’s that full list:
- Max Fried
- Austin Riley
- Mike Foltynewicz
- A.J. My
- Touki Toussaint
- Phil Pfeifer
- Luke Jackson
- Alex Jackson
- Thomas Burrows
- Ender Inciarte
- Dansby Swanson
- Sean Newcomb
On the other side, here’s the full list of players traded away that are still playing and have not reached free agency or have not been non-tendered:
Thanks for reading “The Braves Rebuild, 2016-17 Offseason Trades”. Check out our entire catalog on the rebuild here.
This is a really useful series as it helps remind that when it comes to trading away your’n for their’n, inaction can frequently be better than action.
I can also conclude that I have not been hoodwinked by a fan account.
Follow up:
@ Rob
About time…hopefully this will work out
Interesting.
No complaints here.
I think I’d take that.
Sounds like the pending agreement includes having the DH in the NL.
Given it would only be a 60 game season, I would have no problem with a 16 team playoff in 2020. The thing that I struggle with is I read that they want a 16 team playoff for 2021.
I’m done with baseball. Looks like Manfred is using COVID-19 as his ‘in’ to shove the DH on the NL.
I yield to no one in hating the DH, but I don’t think this is just a power play by Manfred. My general understanding is that there’s pretty much consensus in baseball that this is happening. I think both sides saw this as a way of expanding the pie.
It’s a crappy win-win.
New thread!
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2020/06/18/the-braves-rebuild-outgoing-vs-incoming-value-part-6-2017-in-season-trades/