Odds on the Braves Postseason 25-man: Hitters

This is the 2nd piece in this series as last week I looked at the pitching, both rotation and bullpen. If you missed that piece, find it here . I’m going to stay true to the original piece and assume that the Braves are going to carry 11 pitchers and 14 position players. The reasoning behind that is simple: I think they’ll carry 3 catchers (but I’m not 100% sure, and you’ll see in the list). This theory could be taking a hit as Francisco Cervelli hasn’t been seeing much time on the field, but as of now, I’ll stand behind it. In the playoffs, I feel like Billy Hamilton and the PH du jour will join forces as 1 superhero human-being where our own Flash joins with Hulk to create an ultimate bench force. From there, I think there’ll be 4 more bench players to battle in the last year that matchups, due to handedness, will sure to be exploited.

There are people that we don’t have to list here, but due to the total being the goal, they’ll be on here nonetheless. This list assumes that everyone who’s currently healthy will stay healthy, and everyone that’s injured will be healthy by the playoffs.

My Personal Roster Percentage Predictions

Freddie Freeman– 100%
Ozzie Albies– 100%
Dansby Swanson– 100%
Josh Donaldson– 100%
Ronald Acuna– 100%
Matt Joyce– 100%
Brian McCann– 100%
Tyler Flowers– 100%
Nick Markakis– 100%
Ender Inciarte– 100%
Billy Hamilton– 100%
Charlie Culberson -100%
Francisco Cervelli– 50%
Johan Camargo-50%
Adam Duvall-50%
Adeiny Hechavarria– 25%
Austin Riley– 25%
Rafael Ortega– 0%

Breakdown on Lineup

There’s little guesswork to do here, other than who catches who as the Braves have utilized nearly the same lineup all year. Inserting ⅔ of Markakis, Joyce and Inciarte into the lineup against RHP would give the Braves 4 to 5 LHHs in a lineup, however I more or less expect Snitker to carry the trio of Acuna, Ender, and Markakis no matter the handedness of the pitcher assuming both Markakis and Ender are healthy.

Breakdown on Bench

Adding Ender and Kakes back to the lineup leaves Culberson, Hamilton, and Joyce as shoo-ins on the bench and Riley, Duvall, Camargo, Hecchavaria, Ortega, and Cervelli to battle for the last 3 spots. I think it’s more likely than not that Ortega’s spot on the 40-man will be taken this weekend when Markakis is activated as the need for another pitcher could outweigh the need for another bench player (insert my plug for Phil Pfeifer). There’s no doubt that the Braves could use Riley’s power off the bench and that is much more valuable than a singles hitter like Hecchavaria, but Riley’s just not making contact. Camargo played well at Gwinnett and has hit well in his return, and his ability to hit from both sides most definitely makes him an attractive option off a bench where he’d be the only switch hitter. Cervelli has played well since being acquired to fill B-Mac’s role and I think the Braves really want him on the bench in the playoffs. Admittedly, I could be misguided but I’m sticking with it. In short, I think the Braves are going to go with the hot hand for those last few spots but, for now, Hech and Riley seem to be outside the glass.

Thanks for reading!

Long live Braves Journal!

Author: Ryan Cothran

Ryan is the site editor and manager of Braves Journal. Follow him on Twitter.

43 thoughts on “Odds on the Braves Postseason 25-man: Hitters”

  1. I’d drop Flowers for Cervelli in a nano-second, but you’re probably correct that they’ll carry him. I just don’t understand why they’d want to.

    Would anyone leave Ender off the playoff roster in favor of Duvall?

  2. Markakis is not on the 60 day DL so they won’t have to DFA anyone to activate him.

    I think Flowers should be about 75% instead of 100%, in the event he struggles again down the stretch.

    I also would probably put Ender at 75% or so, because his return before the end of the regular season is questionable.

  3. I wasn’t trying to imply that Markakis was on the 60 day IL. Rather that they wouldn’t need another bench player and could use the extra 40 man spot to try out another left-handed reliever.

  4. As somewhat of a comic book nerd it feels like fingernails on the chalkboard to have you put Flash (DC) and Hulk (Marvel) together. I know there have been special crossovers but it still rubs me wrong. Maybe Quicksilver and Hulk or Flash and Shazam (closest thing I could think of in the DC universe to an all muscle guy) would have been better.
    As far as the actual analysis goes I dig it and really like your use of “percentage of making the roster”.

  5. Ryan, I think there is a near zero percent chance Inciarte and Hamilton are both on the playoff roster. Assuming Inciarte is healthy, they are essentially duplicates. And, in fact, Hamilton is a poor man’s Inciarte.

    Drop Hamilton and take Cervelli, Camargo, and Duvall. I’m not sure why there’s such an obsession with Hamilton. Duvall is a highly rated defensive OF. Culberson is every bit as fast on the base paths.

    You can bring Hamilton in by petition if Inciarte goes down.

    Frankly, I’m squirming about Markakis coming back. Joyce has been better both offensively and defensively. Our best defensive RF is Acuna. I’d rather see Inciarte, Acuna, and a Joyce/Duvall platoon with Nick coming off the bench. But I know that will not happen.

  6. Brian McCann is undoubtedly Wolverine.

    Nobody takes half a second to admire anything when he’s behind the plate.

  7. @Roger

    Billy Hamilton is the pinch runner. Ender is the starting CFer. That’s 2 very different roles.

  8. On Hamilton,

    A couple of years ago, somebody did a research article and determined that he had the highest probability of any player in baseball history of scoring a run ASSUMING, he was already at first. Ender would be carried to play. Hamilton would be speed on speed.

  9. So ummm, about Fried for playoff rotation…..

    Honestly, he seems more inconsistent than Teheran, even if he has higher upside.

  10. Does anyone have Fried’s ERA with BMac catching and “not BMac” catching? I remember it being much lower for BMac a few starts ago but can’t find the stat.

  11. I would love that blog post, Alex and Hap.

    I didn’t know it was bad to mix DC and Marvel. I’m showing my lack of comic knowledge.

  12. Coming in a little late here, but did anyone think Acuna actually made the catch and lost it after the catch was assured? I thought that might have been worth reviewing.

  13. Riley needs some work to get his stroke back. Even when he hit his sac fly, he basically missed a pitch he should have hammered.

    Camargo’s looking pretty good, though.

  14. If you watch the slo-mo replay, he’s celebrating before he even comes down. The drop was a result of too much mustard on the hot dog. It is what it is, he’s just a kid.

  15. Dangit. I want to see more of O’Day. Two pitches and an out is just not enough to see what’s there. He should not be considered a ROOGY. He only threw two offspeed pitches. I’d like to see if he still has a mid-80s FB.

  16. That FB that Minter threw for the HR was not at his usual speed. Usually the FB is 95-96 and that one was 93-94. I think Minter took something off to keep it on the plate and got it blasted. And, yep, that was the only FB Minter threw. Everything else was cutters and changeups which were much more successful.

    He’s still searching for the pitches and the sequencing to be successful. If he’s going to use that FB, it needs to have the velo back.

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